Normandy Invasion

[classhandicapper]

Just curious, what do people think of the trip Normandy Invasion had in the Derby?

He was off the pace, but his own fractions were not slow and he may have moved a bit prematurely on the turn. I'd have to think he's a little better than he looks, but how much?

[CincyHorseplayer]

As somebody who made a small bet to win on him and played him big with Orb in exactas,it's obvious my opinion of him was pretty high.I was drawn to his late pace potential he flashed in the Remsen last year and 3rd race off a layoff I expected a big race from him.Well we got it,but I think Chad Brown's inexperience in the triple crown and paranoia about the probable pace caused him to train NI to be too forwardly placed.I expect a more laidback,even effort in this,if the derby did not KO him.

[Rex Phinney]

I saw a few on track reporters say the horse looked a little light in the weeks leading up to the Derby, and he seemed to be off the wall training wise. In the end he ran a race that seems to support both those observations, kind of a different style of race from him and kind of short when it counted.

I think he is a good horse, but putting his name on a classic trophy might be a little much to ask.

[classhandicapper]

I played him under Orb also, but I'm kind of fuzzy about how well he ran. I'd have to think the gap between him and Orb is less than the margin, but he'll probably be second choice. So unless you think he was best, there won't be any obvious value. Even Beyer mentioned the premature move. So I think it's well known as something to consider.

[Greyfox]

I thought Castellano moved too early, as has often been the case for anxious riders in previous Derbys. I'm not sure that he would have won anyways.

[Robert Fischer]

Just curious, what do people think of the trip Normandy Invasion had in the Derby?

He was off the pace, but his own fractions were not slow and he may have moved a bit prematurely on the turn. I'd have to think he's a little better than he looks, but how much?

I believe it was a pretty bad trip. A couple of things seem evidence of that.
Going too fast for the 2nd quarter, and possibly his handling approaching the far turn.



Here are Normandy Invasion's fractions in comparison to ORB:

FRACTIONS
call...1/4.....1/2......3/4......1M.......1m1/4
ORB 23.74 47.66 1:11.64 1:36.78 2:02.66
ORB(23.74)(23.92)(23.98)(25.14 )(25.88) < -- sectionals

N.I. 23.33 46.27 1:10.31 1:36.02 2:03.32
N.I.(23.33)(22.94)(24.04)(25.71 )(27.30) < -- sectionals

Normandy Invasion accelerated into the 2nd quarter while Orb decelerated.
At the half N.I. was 1.39 seconds faster than Orb.
That 2nd quarter mile likely cost Normandy Invasion significantly.




VISUAL
The 2nd quarter is the more significant issue with N.I.'s trip, but there is also a question of his handling approaching later in the race.

Approaching the far turn, Normandy Invasion was already slowing down in comparison to ORB, and the front-runners were stopping badly when Castellano then swung out and put N.I to a hard drive.

The visual illusion, and the chart comments, reflect that this appeared to be a bold move.

Could Castellano have simply 'guided' Normandy Invasion and allowed the pace to come back to him, rather than set down into a hard drive with 3 furlongs to go? It's possible that could have also made a small difference. It's also possible that at that point in the race he needed to urge the horse for the best finish, and the the pace collapse simply made it look much worse than it was.




All told he actually lost by only 3.5 Lengths, and the 2nd fraction alone may have cost him the opportunity to contend for the win.

[JPinMaryland]

Bobby do you think this horse (NorInv) has any issues with passing horses? I mentioned this on the other thread. I dont think this guy has any issues with distance or finishing fast. But he's only one a maiden race...

[Robert Fischer]

I don't see any issue with passing horses.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't see any issue with passing horses.

Good work above Robert.Making his qickest move into the hottest part of the pace definitely cost him.I was ready to cash that exacta at the 16th pole!Before he got swallowed up.I think it's a lesson learned and he'll run big in the Preakness.If he runs.That Derby might have taken too much out of him.It sounds like he's a maybe,not a probable.In the leadup to the derby I was worried about his both sides miler breeding,especially with what was implied in the way he was being trained.I see this guy hitting at some point,maybe the Preakness?

[Valuist]

I also think he was on a bad part of the track. You either wanted to be real wide (7-8 path) or by the rail. Anyone who saw the Donna Brothers interview saw it first hand. She was on the track, maybe 20 minutes before the Derby, and you could see the path near the rail was good, then it got bad until you got real wide. But the ride was real bad, moving into the teeth of that brutal pace. How often does a horse go from 12th to 1st with a quarter mile to race?

No doubt in my mind he ran a far superior race to the 2nd and 3rd place finishers.

[ArlJim78]

he's one of the better ones so far. I get the feeling he needs shorter, just because visually he seems to run in spurts. I also have a hunch he'd be good on turf.

[pondman]

He was battling down in the slop. If this horse gets a dry lane, they may not catch him next time. He's maturing well-- will be a factor. Got to like the Fox Hill Farms angle-- I'd expect big things from this horse.

[nat1223]

this horse kept up with the fast pace in the beginning and likely made an early move..this is not his style. with the muddy track chad likely wanted him placed more to the front half and the fast pace early on caused the horse to use up some energy early. this race caused many problems for a majority of the horses. i would give NI a nod at belmont if he runs but not at pimlico

[cj]

I think he was clearly the second best horse in the race with a better, more patient ride. Same jockey did his best Bernardini reenactment. Would he have beaten Orb? Probably not in my opinion.

[aaron]

I thought Normandy Invasion ran a better race. He was off the inside,to close to the pace and moved to soon. He'll probably be second choice.

[classhandicapper]

No doubt in my mind he ran a far superior race to the 2nd and 3rd place finishers.

Right. That much I agree with. After that it gets kind of fuzzy to me.

[OCF]

I'm a win bettor only, and looking at his record there's no way at this point I'd put any $ on his nose in a Gr 1 or Gr 2.

Its easy to over-think these things, not that anybody in this thread has said they would bet him to win.

[gm10]

I think he's the one to beat in the Preakness (if he goes). He ran a massive KD, he was as impressive as Orb imo.

[Valuist]

I'm a win bettor only, and looking at his record there's no way at this point I'd put any $ on his nose in a Gr 1 or Gr 2.

Its easy to over-think these things, not that anybody in this thread has said they would bet him to win.

I probably won't be making a win bet on ANY of the runners, but I certainly will use Normandy Invasion in the P3s/P4s and in tris.

[Robert Fischer]

couple things -

1. Not sure Normandy Invasion is going to run. If you take Chad Brown's recent comments literally, he doesn't feel that hitting the board in the Preakness does a lot for NI's stock(except for a win).
Even if Normandy Invasion is 110% he still has to beat Orb and others.

2. Normandy Invasion was almost underweight going into the Kentucky Derby. He obviously ran very well, but that could play a role in the decision, as horses can sometimes lose weight through the Triple Crown series of races. It wasn't like he was trapped behind horses and never got a chance to fire - he was all-out, with an adverse trip.

[OCF]

I probably won't be making a win bet on ANY of the runners,
I've been thinking the same thing, can't see myself betting either for or against Orb.

[Lord Longshot]

Like someone mentioned earlier, I think he is better suited for 1 mile or less. He shows great spurts but seems to be out of gas before hitting the wire at the longer distances. His best efforts have been when he saves a lot of ground early against slow final times.

[JPinMaryland]

dont you think he runs better when he's chasing horses?

[PICSIX]

TVG reporting he will not run in the Preakness!

[iceknight]

I think he's the one to beat in the Preakness (if he goes). He ran a massive KD, he was as impressive as Orb imo. As Picsix said...

Not anymore (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/78213/normandy-invasion-will-skip-preakness)

[Mr_Ed]

3YO Normandy Invasion won the $62,587 12th race at Pocono today in track record time of 1:48.4.

[Tom]

Talk about your Plan B!

[rastajenk]

Versa-Tile :ThmbUp:

[Mr_Ed]

Both are conditioned by a trainer named Brown.

[thaskalos]

In retrospect...it seems to me that keeping Normandy Invasion out of the last two legs of the Triple Crown might be one of the worst horse racing decisions ever made.

[Fager Fan]

In retrospect...it seems to me that keeping Normandy Invasion out of the last two legs of the Triple Crown might be one of the worst horse racing decisions ever made.


I don't see why. They look in pretty good shape in hindsight to me. No 3yo emerged from the TC as a monster or with a tight hold on the champion trophy. They said Normandy had dropped a ton of weight, so instead of running, they're able to fatten him up and get him hopefully to proper condition for the Travers and late-season races.

[cj]

I don't see why. They look in pretty good shape in hindsight to me. No 3yo emerged from the TC as a monster or with a tight hold on the champion trophy. They said Normandy had dropped a ton of weight, so instead of running, they're able to fatten him up and get him hopefully to proper condition for the Travers and late-season races.

Because he would have had a very good chance to take down at least one huge purse? The more I watch how these supposed horsemen handle horses, the more I like Wayne Lukas. Call me jaded, but I never believe "they say" stuff, and it usually proves a smart choice.

[PhantomOnTour]

Lukas had two horses compete in all 3 legs of the Triple Crown - when is that last time that has happened?
Probably the last time Lukas did it :D

Optimizer also ran in the turf feature before each leg of the TC

[Fager Fan]

Because he would have had a very good chance to take down at least one huge purse? The more I watch how these supposed horsemen handle horses, the more I like Wayne Lukas. Call me jaded, but I never believe "they say" stuff, and it usually proves a smart choice.

So getting a purse here is more important than the long-term health and future racing of the horse? You don't have to believe the connections as there were plenty of photos and eye-witnesses who saw how underweight he was going into the Derby.

[cj]

So getting a purse here is more important than the long-term health and future racing of the horse? You don't have to believe the connections as there were plenty of photos and eye-witnesses who saw how underweight he was going into the Derby.

For every horse that has "long range" plans pan out, about 10 don't.

If you want to believe trainer speak, be my guest. If the trainer cared so much about long-term health, why run an obviously underweight horse in the most grueling race of the year? Give me a break.

[Fager Fan]

For every horse that has "long range" plans pan out, about 10 don't.

If you want to believe trainer speak, be my guest. If the trainer cared so much about long-term health, why run an obviously underweight horse in the most grueling race of the year? Give me a break.

Because it's the Derby, and you've got one shot, so you weigh what you're fretting about and decide if you should still send the horse.

As I said, I don't need to believe anyone. See for yourself:

http://news.yahoo.com/photos/kentucky-derby-hopeful-normandy-invasion-washed-down-grooms-photo-154839633.html?format=embed#mediaphotosbobaspotlig htgallery=%2Flightbox%2Fkentucky-derby-hopeful-normandy-invasion-washed-down-grooms-photo-154839633.html

http://media.kentucky.com/smedia/2013/05/03/10/15/7Drip.AuSt.79.jpeg

http://cbswcbsfm.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/kentuckyderby_2013_0020.jpg?w=620

A horse in proper race condition shows no visible ribs (but they can be easily felt). The underweight horse is prone to early fatigue because they have to rely almost entirely on the energy derived from its daily diet instead of stored energy.

[cj]

Better fill in Chad Brown, because he gave consideration to the Preakness.

[sammy the sage]

Better fill in Chad Brown, because he gave consideration to the Preakness.

and HOW do you if it WAS his call or THE owner's...???

All I got to say...who-ever MADE the final call....did right by THE horse and better's NOT to run in Preakness...

[cj]

and HOW do you if it WAS his call or THE owner's...???

All I got to say...who-ever MADE the final call....did right by THE horse and better's NOT to run in Preakness...

I don't know, which is why I don't pay any attention to whatever any of them say.

As for better not to run, you can't possibly know if they right by the horse or not, unless you are just against racing altogether.

[Valuist]

I was very disappointed Normandy Invasion didn't run in the Preakness. He ran huge in the Derby. Who knows what type of form he'll be in come Travers time?

Yeah we'll hear about "long term this, or long term that" and they'll probably retire him after his 3 year old season anyways.

[iceknight]

By long term.. they mean, a Gr I win and a LONG stud career..

[FantasticDan]

A horse in proper race condition shows no visible ribs (but they can be easily felt). The underweight horse is prone to early fatigue because they have to rely almost entirely on the energy derived from its daily diet instead of stored energy.
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-workouts-normandy-invasion-has-strong-gallop-churchill-downs

“He bounced back out of his work well, and every day he’s trained here, he’s gotten stronger and stronger,” Brown said. “He’s maintaining his energy, and that’s what I want going into the Derby. I’m right where I want to be with him.”

Normandy Invasion is a light-framed horse, leading some to believe that he might have lost weight coming out of the Wood, but that’s of no concern to Brown.

“He’s a light horse; he’s always been this way,” Brown said. “After having a hard race in the Wood, we’re just trying to fill the gas tank up a little more until we hit Derby Day.”

[cj]

For every horse that has "long range" plans pan out, about 10 don't.


Hmmm....sounding like Normandy Invasion may be out for the year. Shocking news I tell you, just shocking.

[Mr Saratoga]

The foot is healing ok. they are looking at the Penn Derby in Sept.
I would love to have seen him run at Saratoga. :(

[burnsy]

Shocking news I tell you, just shocking.

Just shocking..........;) . That horse is undersized to begin with and i suspect there were more "issues" than just a weight problem.....you are right on about trainers. People come on here and take what they say at "face value" , I wish I could play poker against some of these folks.........Yeah, they are under oath, they tell the public everything, and people have the nerve to think that they are "obligated". Most people would rather be told than to figure things out for themselves.........its just amazing. Then they react with "shock".....Saw it on TV, CNN, FOX NEWS, MSNBC....must be true and "shocking too".........:lol:

[Saratoga_Mike]

Hmmm....sounding like Normandy Invasion may be out for the year. Shocking news I tell you, just shocking.

I normally would share your skepticism, but I buy into the foot abscess story - it's detailed and the horse put in two decent works over the Oklahoma track in June. I've had horses miss just a week of training b/c of this issue, but some have missed four to six weeks. I bet he races again...of course I wouldn't bet a lot!

[cj]

I normally would share your skepticism, but I buy into the foot abscess story - it's detailed and the horse put in two decent works over the Oklahoma track in June. I've had horses miss just a week of training b/c of this issue, but some have missed four to six weeks. I bet he races again...of course I wouldn't bet a lot!

I don't care what the story is, and certainly hope he'll be ok. My point was, and I said this a while back, that these long term goals almost never work out. Horses are too fragile, and when you pass up opportunities to race in important races with a healthy horse, it is just silly. It looked like a dumb decision to pass the Preakness before the race, even dumber when Oxbow won, and now, wow.

Second guessing is one thing, but I could see this coming a mile away.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I don't care what the story is, and certainly hope he'll be ok. My point was, and I said this a while back, that these long term goals almost never work out. Horses are too fragile, and when you pass up opportunities to race in important races with a healthy horse, it is just silly. It looked like a dumb decision to pass the Preakness before the race, even dumber when Oxbow won, and now, wow.

Second guessing is one thing, but I could see this coming a mile away.

Got it - didn't know the context of your comment.

[Cannon shell]

I don't care what the story is, and certainly hope he'll be ok. My point was, and I said this a while back, that these long term goals almost never work out. Horses are too fragile, and when you pass up opportunities to race in important races with a healthy horse, it is just silly. It looked like a dumb decision to pass the Preakness before the race, even dumber when Oxbow won, and now, wow.

Second guessing is one thing, but I could see this coming a mile away.
It would take a great leap of faith to believe that this horse exited the Derby in good enough shape to run in the Preakness. Especially considering how quick his trainer was to dismiss the race and subsequently decide that a later Summer campaign was the goal by passing the Preakness, Belmont and Haskell for no apparent stated reason other than being skinny.

[cj]

It would take a great leap of faith to believe that this horse exited the Derby in good enough shape to run in the Preakness. Especially considering how quick his trainer was to dismiss the race and subsequently decide that a later Summer campaign was the goal by passing the Preakness, Belmont and Haskell for no apparent stated reason other than being skinny.

I happen to know he was definitely considering running, and he said as much himself later, so I would think he was in good enough shape.

[Cannon shell]

I happen to know he was definitely considering running, and he said as much himself later, so I would think he was in good enough shape.
You can lead a horse to water...

[burnsy]

I happen to know he was definitely considering running, and he said as much himself later, so I would think he was in good enough shape.

I don't. Many horses see their LAST race in the derby and even more never win again. When horses miss races, that they are SUPPOSED to run in, its a negative, no matter what people are saying. The derby probably did a number on this horse, hes small. Like i said, it wouldn't be the first time or the last. The toll of running in the derby is very high for some horses. "oh, hes doing fine but we are not running for two or 3 months for the hell of it." yeah ok.......its only the preakness or belmont...once in a lifetime races....thats all. "Hes doing so well, we will skip both".......this is what i mean about trainers. What are they supposed to say....."Hes sore as hell, won't eat the full tub or drink all the water, so hes underweight and dehydrated...other than that he can run two months from now"......."Hes in fine shape"......"I'll be fired tommorrow".......:lol: Plus the fact hes never beaten any of the top contenders (in winning a race) to begin with anyway......its adding up to a great comeback.....:lol: .........this August or September.....:bang: Yeah and I'll be betting all over that.......even if happens........

[OCF]

I don't. Many horses see their LAST race in the derby and even more never win again. When horses miss races, that they are SUPPOSED to run in, its a negative, no matter what people are saying. The derby probably did a number on this horse, hes small. Like i said, it wouldn't be the first time or the last. The toll of running in the derby is very high for some horses. "oh, hes doing fine but we are not running for two or 3 months for the hell of it." yeah ok.......its only the preakness or belmont...once in a lifetime races....thats all. "Hes doing so well, we will skip both".......this is what i mean about trainers. What are they supposed to say....."Hes sore as hell, won't eat the full tub or drink all the water, so hes underweight and dehydrated...other than that he can run two months from now"......."Hes in fine shape"......"I'll be fired tommorrow".......:lol: Plus the fact hes never beaten any of the top contenders (in winning a race) to begin with anyway......its adding up to a great comeback.....:lol: .........this August or September.....:bang: Yeah and I'll be betting all over that.......even if happens........

I wouldn't speculate on NI specifically, but the gist of this rings true to me. I wonder how many horses have been ruined because their owner (or trainer) just had to take a flyer on running in the Derby.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I don't. Many horses see their LAST race in the derby and even more never win again. When horses miss races, that they are SUPPOSED to run in, its a negative, no matter what people are saying. The derby probably did a number on this horse, hes small. Like i said, it wouldn't be the first time or the last. ......

I'd bet a lot of money that statement is incorrect. By "many horses," I assume you mean at least 25% to 30% of the Derby field each yr never races again?

[cj]

I wouldn't speculate on NI specifically, but the gist of this rings true to me. I wonder how many horses have been ruined because their owner (or trainer) just had to take a flyer on running in the Derby.

NI ran a very good race in the Wood, running second against the grain of the pace. I know you said not NI, I'm just saying that him running was hardly a flyer.

[OCF]

NI ran a very good race in the Wood, running second against the grain of the pace. I know you said not NI, I'm just saying that him running was hardly a flyer.

Trust me, I wasn't saying running NI in the Derby was taking a flyer. Very much the opposite.

[DigitalDownsJoe]

The mud didnt help either.

[nijinski]

There is statement on FB on the Fox Hill Farm page .
Seems after extensive work was done on his hoof he's , now back at the farm .
According to Rick Porter ,they will take the time to let his hoof wall grow back in and strengthen .
They are setting their sights on 2014 . I guess unless things get good fast .
Best wishes to Normandy Invasion !

[nat1223]

This is a very talented horse so I hope the recovery is quick.

[nijinski]

This is a very talented horse so I hope the recovery is quick.

Yes he is and they are doing right by him .
Sounds like the future will be on softer ground too .

[Cholly]

From DRF article today re: Normandy Invasion:

"Porter said that he and trainer Chad Brown would come up with a plan for 2014 and work backward from there to determine when to put him back in training."

He's still eligible for a N1X allowance; maybe they should see if they can win one of those and work FORWARD from there.

[letswastemoney]

From DRF article today re: Normandy Invasion:

"Porter said that he and trainer Chad Brown would come up with a plan for 2014 and work backward from there to determine when to put him back in training."

He's still eligible for a N1X allowance; maybe they should see if they can win one of those and work FORWARD from there.
Sounds like he is retired and they just don't want to say it.

[iceknight]

Sounds like he is retired and they just don't want to say it.
It would be nice for a track caller if this one runs in the same race as Norman Asbjornson :lol:


So it's not just the Pletcher barn that causes promising colts to end up in the shed fast... general industry trend?

[iceknight]

It would be nice for a track caller if this one runs in the same race as Norman Asbjornson :lol:


So it's not just the Pletcher barn that causes promising colts to end up in the shed fast... general industry trend? now...FREEDOM CHILD....

[iceknight]

Sounds like he is retired and they just don't want to say it.
He is running in today's 4th at GP, FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR RESTRICTED ALLOWANCES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000

Going off at 1/2.

Ok, after a long layoff, recovery etc, he beat the small weak field easily. Let us see where they point him next!~

[Grits]

He looked well in his win. Its good to see him return to racing for Chad Brown and Mr.Porter.

[tanner12oz]

Gonna be a force on the older male scene

[iceknight]

He is running in today's 4th at GP,....
Ok, after a long layoff, recovery etc, he beat the small weak field easily. Let us see where they point him next!~ I stand corrected. He ran really well..
*track record* deserves respect
http://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing/race-info/news/normandy-invasion-sets-track-record-return

[EMD4ME]

5 of 6 dirt races were won wire to wire. Huge speed bias today. He won off the pace and with a wide move. Impressive comeback.....

[Vinnie]

WOW!! Track Record at a mile. Isn't that something? I loved this horse in the Derby and I am thrilled to see him return to racing in the fashion that he has.
He will most definitely be a force to reckon with as the year goes on. Very nice for he and his connections.

[classhandicapper]

He looked really good. It appeared he still had a ton in the tank at the wire. It's likely the time off gave him a chance to develop. If so, he should be among the leaders of the division this year. But next time he'll have to face a much tougher group than that. So we'll get a better idea of where his is.

[iceknight]

He looked really good. It appeared he still had a ton in the tank at the wire. It's likely the time off gave him a chance to develop. If so, he should be among the leaders of the division this year. But next time he'll have to face a much tougher group than that. So we'll get a better idea of where his is. Yes, New Orleans H (Gr II) - Mar 29 or Oaklawn Handicap (Gr II) - Apr 12 currently being discussed as options.. 1 1/8th 2 turns

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/83493/brown-mulls-options-for-normandy-invasion