Balmoral Drivers

[traynor]

Strange numbers for probabilities of driver effect on the outcome of races:

BmlP Pace Winners PositiveDriverChange 0.28

BmlP Pace Winners 3rdOrBetterFinishLast+Driver 0.28

BmlP Pace Winners 3rdOrBetterFinish2ndBack+Driver 0.29

BmlP Pace Winners CloseToPaceFinishLast+Driver 0.34

BmlP Pace Winners CloseToPaceFinish2ndBack+Driver 0.34

Numeric values represent ratio of winners with that attribute compared to all entries with that attribute. A value of 1.0 would be neutral. "Driver" refers to top echelon of drivers at a given meet (the top five or so--it varies a bit).

What the values suggest is that a "good" race with a "good" driver in the last outing, or in the second race back (with no win in last race)--situations that most would consider "strong points"--are in fact counter-productive. Data is current.

The really interesting part is that no such negative bias combining strong finishes and good drivers in recent races exists at Maywood--only Balmoral.

[badcompany]

The really interesting part is that no such negative bias combining strong finishes and good drivers in recent races exists at Maywood--only Balmoral.

Balmoral: Mile track with long stretch. Maywood: Half-mile track with short stretch.

My guess is that, in the strong finishes at Balmoral, the driver uses the horse a lot longer and harder than he would at Maywood, and this takes its toll more on the horse the following week.

[LottaKash]

Of course, this is just my opinion, but one of the biggest problems I have with Balmoral Park is that, in general, I have very little confidence in the driver colony at that track....

I mean Oosting is ok I guess, but the others seem to let me down more than I care to see....

Perhaps it may well be that I am spoiled with the driver colonies at the tracks that I seem to do best at...Like PcD, Mea, M1, Chs, Wdb & Mhk.....And, they have so many good drivers at those tracks, that often enough it becomes somewhat of a non issue for me.....

I like a driver that can leave and rate well, and I like drivers that can get the most out of a horse in the very late going, when it counts the most...

I just don't get that so often with the BmP drivers....I see it so often that they will leave hard with a closer, or use their horse in the wrong spot, or simply can't get them to try any harder in the lane, where a top driver can wring out every last oz. of juice from a horse in the lane, use them in the right spot, and they just know when to go for it.......

So many cheap horses there, that without the guidance of very good drivers, I simply don't have the success at that place that I do at my faves, that's all......

[wiffleball whizz]

Did I have a post deleted? Everything I posted there was documented facts look them up?!?!??

[wiffleball whizz]

Strange numbers for probabilities of driver effect on the outcome of races:

BmlP Pace Winners PositiveDriverChange 0.28

BmlP Pace Winners 3rdOrBetterFinishLast+Driver 0.28

BmlP Pace Winners 3rdOrBetterFinish2ndBack+Driver 0.29

BmlP Pace Winners CloseToPaceFinishLast+Driver 0.34

BmlP Pace Winners CloseToPaceFinish2ndBack+Driver 0.34

Numeric values represent ratio of winners with that attribute compared to all entries with that attribute. A value of 1.0 would be neutral. "Driver" refers to top echelon of drivers at a given meet (the top five or so--it varies a bit).

What the values suggest is that a "good" race with a "good" driver in the last outing, or in the second race back (with no win in last race)--situations that most would consider "strong points"--are in fact counter-productive. Data is current.

The really interesting part is that no such negative bias combining strong finishes and good drivers in recent races exists at Maywood--only Balmoral.

Google 16 in harness racing banned----la times...let me know what u think of one of bmlp/may drivers.....

I'm the idiot for religiously betting these tracks when my sked allows it....Illinois the only jurisdiction that lets this guy race....

[traynor]

Balmoral: Mile track with long stretch. Maywood: Half-mile track with short stretch.

My guess is that, in the strong finishes at Balmoral, the driver uses the horse a lot longer and harder than he would at Maywood, and this takes its toll more on the horse the following week.

That makes a lot of sense. I don't know if it the cause or not, but it seems reasonable. It could be a situation similar to sprint riders on thoroughbreds entered in longer routes--it requires a different strategy that may take more skill than some have. I looked at the figures for other mile tracks and there is no similar pattern--just at Balmoral.

Understand this is not classifying drivers as "bad." In the post above, the designation "+Driver" has very specific criteria to establish that the driver is one of the top rated at the track. The criteria are somewhat like the UDR, but factor in earnings and additional factors as well. By anyone's standards, these are good drivers. It is the combination of those drivers with horses that finished strongly in the last race, or next to the last race without a win in last, that is perplexing.

A pattern that seems strongly indicative of a good performance in the current race (at most tracks) seems almost an automatic elimination at Balmoral.