PREAKNESS BET: ORB and ALL

[Smarty Cide]

Is there really any other way to bet it? Orb is a good horse, maybe the best since Big Brown. I dont see anyway he dont win the Preakness.

[JustRalph]

Is there really any other way to bet it? Orb is a good horse, maybe the best since Big Brown. I dont see anyway he dont win the Preakness.

Re calibrate, re-assess because you don't even know who he's facing yet.

[precocity]

Is there really any other way to bet it? Orb is a good horse, maybe the best since Big Brown. I dont see anyway he dont win the Preakness.
thats a great bet for you go ahead do it on a super all the way down. :D

[iceknight]

Is there really any other way to bet it? Orb is a good horse, maybe the best since Big Brown. I dont see anyway he dont win the Preakness. And what is Orb wins going off a favorite at low odds and the 2nd is the 2nd favorite on toteboard? You will get $6 for $28 bet. But, if you have lot of money to bet, I am not going to stop you!

[Smarty Cide]

yeah thats true.. but how else you gonna bet this race? this horse is the best since big brown

[precocity]

yeah thats true.. but how else you gonna bet this race? this horse is the best since big brown
if you think so.

[iceknight]

yeah thats true.. but how else you gonna bet this race? this horse is the best since big brown Well.. I can do a "faith" bet of a $2 (even if he goes off as a 1/5 fav) more to keep as a souvenir, if he goes on to win the belmont too..

Or I could single him in a pick 3 or pick 4. I follow odds rules for betting so, if not under 4-1 or 5-1 I cannot bet.

:lol: didn't read the Big Brown part.. how did that work out in the Belmont? Nothing is sure.

[overthehill]

OMG this horse keeps getting one dream trip after another. orb;s good luck cant continue forever.

[_______]

The 1/2 mile was the 4th fastest in Derby history. No one that was within 10 lengths of the lead in that 1/2 mile was going to win. Orb closed more than 10 lengths into the resulting pace meltdown.

He's a good horse but won under a very favorable set up. I usually toss horses like this. If they win again at low odds, I haven't missed much. And he's definetly not the lock the OP implies.

Prairie Bayou was the last winner of the Derby under similar circumstances that repeated a win at Pimlico.

[RXB]

The 1/2 mile was the 4th fastest in Derby history. No one that was within 10 lengths of the lead in that 1/2 mile was going to win. Orb closed more than 10 lengths into the resulting pace meltdown.

He's a good horse but won under a very favorable set up. I usually toss horses like this. If they win again at low odds, I haven't missed much. And he's definetly not the lock the OP implies.

Prairie Bayou was the last winner of the Derby under similar circumstances that repeated a win at Pimlico.

Agreed, except Prairie Bayou was 2nd in the Derby.

[_______]

Agreed, except Prairie Bayou was 2nd in the Derby.

Yeah. I meant to say the last horse who faced a similar set up as Orb. Definetly my bad is stating he won.

[dnlgfnk]

Will Orb, the mid pack to deep closer, vulnerable to pace scenarios favorable to stalkers and lone leaders, be 3-5 in the Preakness? Even those odds only get him a 50% chance of winning.

[tucker6]

Will Orb, the mid pack to deep closer, vulnerable to pace scenarios favorable to stalkers and lone leaders, be 3-5 in the Preakness? Even those odds only get him a 50% chance of winning.
Orb should not be categorized as a deep closer based on the KD alone. His typical race isn't necessarily from deep, nor is he a one trick pony like Bode. Only the smart jockeys and horses stayed away from that pace and were well rewarded for it. If you believe he'll deep close in the Preakness, then by all means bet that way. I certainly wouldn't though.

[dnlgfnk]

Understood, Tucker6.

I also stated "midpack", implying that the pace and his opposition largely determine his distance from the leaders.

On the other hand, the only leaders he ran down were 13-1 Duke of the City and the 49-1 Freedom Child. Itsmyluckyday and Violence have never held the lead before the stretch turn.

As of right now, I would be very wary of a potentially advantageous trip by Goldencents.

[lamboguy]

my bet for the Preakness is going to be ORB to show. i am going to hope for $2.20

[Phantombridgejumpe]

??

[Leparoux]

If you think he's the best then let the real handicapping begin for who to use underneath him. Key him on top of EVERYTHING, single him in EVERYTHING and hope you find some nice horses around and underneath him. I'm starting to believe that he is just better than all of these horses this year.

[wiffleball whizz]

If you think he's the best then let the real handicapping begin for who to use underneath him. Key him on top of EVERYTHING, single him in EVERYTHING and hope you find some nice horses around and underneath him. I'm starting to believe that he is just better than all of these horses this year.


I don't know cj posted sometimg I read earlier that any horse that has won the derby by trailing 10+ lengths is 0-6 in the Preakness....don't exactly quote me on that....

That's some stat right there and already has me seeking other alternative instead of betting 1k to win and 2k to place...

[letswastemoney]

my bet for the Preakness is going to be ORB to show. i am going to hope for $2.20
Really? I read somewhere that betting to show is cheating yourself out of a win bet.

[gm10]

If he runs, I'd be very interested in Normandy Invasion. I'd like to see him get caught on a fast surface over a shorter distance.

[precocity]

I don't know cj posted something I read earlier that any horse that has won the derby by trailing 10+ lengths is 0-6 in the Preakness....don't exactly quote me on that....

That's some stat right there and already has me seeking other alternative instead of betting 1k to win and 2k to place...
whizz not telling you how to bet but if you have 3k to bet go for exotics? even if you like orb on top, he should be making a move at the top of the stretch. just wondering who will be carrying their speed, and did the derby take a lot out of some of the ky derby runners.

[BlueChip@DRF]

EX: Orb over Will Take Charge
TRI: Orb over Will Take Charge, Bellarmine, Departing

[precocity]

EX: Orb over Will Take Charge
TRI: Orb over Will Take Charge, Bellarmine, Departing


Bellarmine is not running.

[Valuist]

I don't know how anyone can draw a conclusion like that after a Derby that was run in monsoon like conditions. We realized he is better than those horses on an OFF track. But to think horses like Goldencents and Normandy Invasion couldn't turn the tables on Orb on a dry track is very short sighted thinking.

[lamboguy]

Really? I read somewhere that betting to show is cheating yourself out of a win bet.i am going to say this again. the very first rule of gambling is not to lose. if ORB runs in the Preakness 100 times, i think he will be in the money 95 times. that is a break even proposition, if you either get a payoff of $2.20 and or a rebate, you are now a winner.

i don't think that ORB would win the Preakness 55 out of 100 races, i think he will go off at odds of 3-5 or 4-5 making him a poor win bet.

[Leparoux]

I don't know cj posted sometimg I read earlier that any horse that has won the derby by trailing 10+ lengths is 0-6 in the Preakness....don't exactly quote me on that....

That's some stat right there and already has me seeking other alternative instead of betting 1k to win and 2k to place...
Very good stat. I think he'll be closer at Pimlico and as long as someone doesn't steal it up front, he will have every chance to win.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Bellarmine is not running.

Nuts. I guess I will just stick with the straight exacta for now.

[Robert Fischer]

my bet for the Preakness is going to be ORB to show. i am going to hope for $2.20

You may even get $2.40 or something because it's the Preakness. It's a temptation for sure.

I think you have to at least exercise caution in the handicapping process.

Anyone who didn't bet ORB in the Derby has already "missed the wedding".
Orb just paid 5.40 or almost 9/5 to show in the Kentucky Derby.

Now were talking about taking 2.20.

We want Orb to at least be the same horse he was in the Derby.
Coming into the Derby he was a top-3 contender. He deserved to be one of the favorites. His vulnerability was that if the pace carried the speeds, and there was some traffic and some slop, that he may not get up.

In the Derby he had a dream setup(his tactical position in the race). A mediocre horse could have hit the board from his setup. In fact that did happen with the place finisher Golden Soul. However, Orb was clearly superior to the place and show horse in the Derby. While his setup makes it impossible to compare ground-loss to speed horses(setup supersedes ground loss), he can be compared to Golden Soul, and Revolutionary who came from the same tactical position. Orb ran 80 more feet than the place and show horses. He was also visually superior and actually did finish in front of them.
All this extra info is telling us, is that we shouldn't toss Orb just because he had a dream setup.

So we have a horse that we hope is as good as he was coming into the Derby. He probably should be. He gets hot before races, so a Derby could take a lot out of him with that kind of metabolism, but he seems healthy and has a great trainer.

So we have to evaluate the Preakness field to see if he's worth taking a huge decrease in price.

Verrazano is out. That's a big help. There won't be 20 horses+slop = another big help.

Normandy Invasion is probably very close to Orb in terms of ability. Luckily they have similar styles, so that it's unlikely for Normandy Invasion to get a much better trip than Orb. Vyjack had a horrible trip in the Derby. Including ground-loss, Vyjack ran the fastest first half of the derby. His results have to be completely tossed out and his prior form could make him competitive with Orb. Goldencents had a horrible trip in the Derby. Goldencents looks like a horse who needs things his own way, as his Santa Anita Derby was one of the better preps for any horse, but has struggled badly against the grain. Departing is a wild-card. Oxbow probably doesn't belong, but his Derby was one of the better performances. Will Take Charge probably doesn't belong, but he had trouble during a good move in the Derby. Governer Charlie is a win contender IF he regains his form(a big if).


It may not be the worst single-race bet in the world, but there isn't a lot of long-term value in taking a short price on Orb. The public isn't going to use a lot of the factors I just went over. If any trouble or loss of form occurs, there could be several good horses looking to make up the balance.

[depalma113]

Orb's half miles in his two mile and an eighth races and his Derby.

:49 Optional Claimer
:48 2/5 Florida Derby
:49 Kentucky Derby

Seems he pretty much runs his own race regardless of pace.

[Valuist]

I don't understand why anyone would rush to declare they'd take 6-5 on a horse off a perfect setup on a sloppy track. We've already seen the Preakness performances of closing Derby winners. And historically, when the Derby pace has been very fast, the Preakness two weeks later has been contested at a considerably slower pace. I don't care if 8 Trinnibergs are in the race; all the riders and trainers know what happened. I doubt it happens again in 9 days.

[Producer]

Oxbow ran huge in the Derby. If he runs back in the preakness, don't disregard from him any slot.

[Sysonby]

OMG this horse keeps getting one dream trip after another. orb;s good luck cant continue forever.

:ThmbUp:

[JPinMaryland]

>>It may not be the worst single-race bet in the world, but there isn't a lot of long-term value in taking a short price on Orb. The public isn't going to use a lot of the factors I just went over. If any trouble or loss of form occurs, there could be several good horses looking to make up the balance.

This is another well thought out post by Bobby. I tend to agree with much of what you said.

My main question is:

The Preakness will likely be run at a slower pace but a much faster finish. How will this effect Orb?

I admit that Orb has enuf tractability to stalk or close, and that's a good thing. but I dont know if he can really run at a much higher gear. He seems almost like a grinder, but that is going too far I suppose.

And a comment:

The only thing I notice that goes against the conventional wisdom is that I dont think orb towers head and shoulders above this crop. The final fractions of REvolutionary/Golden Soul are very comparable to Orb's. Some of the others e.g. Mylute are also in range... Given the off track, it is possible that Rev/GS horses were running on a more difficult, inner path as well.

So I dont see Orb as towering over this field. He seems to have been in a very good position to win a race that had a huge pace collapse. Very good ride by Rosario, very deserving horse. No doubt. But I cant take 6/5 and will look to beat him.


Million dollar question:

Are Normandy Invasion and/or Mylute hangers? ie. afraid to pass other horses?

[Valuist]

>>It may not be the worst single-race bet in the world, but there isn't a lot of long-term value in taking a short price on Orb. The public isn't going to use a lot of the factors I just went over. If any trouble or loss of form occurs, there could be several good horses looking to make up the balance.

This is another well thought out post by Bobby. I tend to agree with much of what you said.

My main question is:

The Preakness will likely be run at a slower pace but a much faster finish. How will this effect Orb?

I admit that Orb has enuf tractability to stalk or close, and that's a good thing. but I dont know if he can really run at a much higher gear. He seems almost like a grinder, but that is going too far I suppose.

And a comment:

The only thing I notice that goes against the conventional wisdom is that I dont think orb towers head and shoulders above this crop. The final fractions of REvolutionary/Golden Soul are very comparable to Orb's. Some of the others e.g. Mylute are also in range... Given the off track, it is possible that Rev/GS horses were running on a more difficult, inner path as well.

So I dont see Orb as towering over this field. He seems to have been in a very good position to win a race that had a huge pace collapse. Very good ride by Rosario, very deserving horse. No doubt. But I cant take 6/5 and will look to beat him.


Million dollar question:

Are Normandy Invasion and/or Mylute hangers? ie. afraid to pass other horses?

Normandy Invasion passed about 11 horses in a fairly short span and had no problem getting to the front. His loss wasn't due to distance limitations but more by a poorly timed ride.

[Leparoux]

Normandy Invasion passed about 11 horses in a fairly short span and had no problem getting to the front. His loss wasn't due to distance limitations but more by a poorly timed ride.
And that Orb is better

[Valuist]

And that Orb is better

Then go ahead and bet him at 6-5 next week at Pimlico.

Betting horses off big wins on sloppy tracks is not a way to create wealth.

[pondman]

I don't know how anyone can draw a conclusion like that after a Derby that was run in monsoon like conditions. We realized he is better than those horses on an OFF track. But to think horses like Goldencents and Normandy Invasion couldn't turn the tables on Orb on a dry track is very short sighted thinking.

+++Yep!

There wasn't a lane. There wasn't a place to run. The horses that run the lane got shut down by their own strategies or shuffled back due to the conditions. The track conditions could dramatically change the 2nd leg. I'd watch the 2 and 3 distance prior to the race and if they are fast-- stay away from Orb. Rosario is about the best spotter in the game, but I don't think that horse will run there. A number of these horses can run there and not quit. I'd also expect Rosie to have mylute much closer. Hope to see her get a bigger share of the next.

[JPinMaryland]

Normandy Invasion passed about 11 horses in a fairly short span and had no problem getting to the front. His loss wasn't due to distance limitations but more by a poorly timed ride.


I completely agree about the ride in the derby I was impressed by his finishing time after making that move at about 3/4 mark.

However, I am still not convinced this horse wants to run when he's in traffic, the Wood Memorial and the Risen Star do not look like he's running hard unless he has a horse to chase. THe Remsen was a very good effort going head to head down the stretch, still lost be a head bob.

I have to watch the derby again, I saw his move, just not sure what he does when he's in traffic.

[JPinMaryland]

Looked at the derby again. He drifts out at the 1/8 pole, but I am sure he was simply tired at that pt. and does have the grit to hang on. He often turns his head when horses approach him, and did that again in the derby but dont really see that as a definitive sign.

Is it possible that Castellano made the early move on him because he was inbetween horses and not in traffic? Decided to beat the rush, as it were, and not have to make that move in traffic.

I dunno. NInv is an intriguing horse I just wish I could form a more definitive opinion on him.

[Lord Longshot]

Well, first off I think Orb could be better than Big Brown. Second, I do think he'll win, but I won't be betting ALL behind him. I'm pretty confident it will be Normandy Invasion getting 2nd. So I'll probably just use them two plus one longshot I like and box them.

With that said, I will be paying close attention to the odds. Orb is going for his 4th consecutive Graded Stakes victory. I'll Have Another won his 4th in a row last season by winning the Preakness (@ 3.20/1 odds) and Barbaro won his 4th in a row after winning the Kentucky Derby (@ 6.10/1 odds). They are the only two horses to accomplish the feat since at least 1993. Three other horses failed on their 4th attempt: Fusaichi Pegasus lost in the Preakness (@ 0.30/1 odds), Smarty Jones lost in the Belmont (@ 0.35/1 odds) and Big Brown lost in the Belmont (@ 0.30/1 odds). Interesting that all the heavy favorites lost. Coincidence? Draw your own conclusion, but if Orb is under even money I will change my betting strategy completely. Btw, Barbaro was 1-2 odds when going for his 5th straight at the Preakness.

[JPinMaryland]

They are the only two horses to accomplish the feat since at least 1993. Three other horses failed on their 4th attempt: ...

Are you referring to 3 year olds? Because Ghostzapper won 6 graded races in a row from 03-05.

[Lord Longshot]

Are you referring to 3 year olds? Because Ghostzapper won 6 graded races in a row from 03-05.
Yes just three year olds participating in the triple crown races. Forgot to mention that.

[depalma113]

Yes just three year olds participating in the triple crown races. Forgot to mention that.

Ummm.....Rachel Alexandra, Rags to Riches

[keithw84]

Ummm.....Rachel Alexandra, Rags to Riches
So... guessing he meant 3-year old males

[depalma113]

So... guessing he meant 3-year old males

Those two won their fourth graded stakes in a row in a Triple Crown race, so I would think it would blow that theory out of the water.

[RaceBookJoe]

yeah thats true.. but how else you gonna bet this race? this horse is the best since big brown

Not sure i would do that far, but at least you had the nuts to put out a strong opinion :)

[Smarty Cide]

i will be drinking salad dressing for dinner for the next 2 months. ****

[Longshot6977]

Never get caught up in the hype. Looks like Orb had no excuse. Just didn't fire today.

[Producer]

Oxbow ran huge in the Derby. If he runs back in the preakness, don't disregard from him any slot.


:):):):)

Huge weekend, indeed!