Who had Orb?

[jk3521]

I ran The Derby through a half dozen different programs. None of them chose Orb even in the top 4. Did anyone's software either professional or home grown chose the winner of the Derby?

[traynor]

I ran The Derby through a half dozen different programs. None of them chose Orb even in the top 4. Did anyone's software either professional or home grown chose the winner of the Derby?

I think The Derby is one of the things that keeps software developers humble. Or in complete denial.

[atlasaxis]

Taulbot Pace Calc software had Orb on top and Golden Soul 7th.

[jk3521]

Taulbot Pace Calc software had Orb on top and Golden Soul 7th.
Isn't that something, that an supposedly "outdated" software that goes back to "before the turn of the century" [I love to use that phrase ] with no updated pars and other such "upgrades" that we have to pay extra for, can do what all the software in the RPM catalog couldn't do. Further proof that Mr Taulbot was ahead of his time.

P.S. And it's cheap! :eek:

[clore1030]

With RDSS, Orb did not show up in the top five on the BL screen, but he did have the highest fig on Total Energy, EPR and Turn Time using the Fountain of Youth as the pace line.

I would have passed were I to get the ML odds, but 5-1 was a gift.

[sevenall]

I ran The Derby through a half dozen different programs. None of them chose Orb even in the top 4. Did anyone's software either professional or home grown chose the winner of the Derby?

Here's the printout from Michael Pizzola's program "The Master Magician". "Orb" is on top with a strong odds line of 4-1 (based on his pace balanced speed figure as well as a strong PPF)

(hopefully the attachment is there when I submitted this)

[jk3521]

Yet Mike himself picked Vyack. Does he have no faith in his own (expensive) software? :)

[mabred]

he probably uses the form !!!!

[atlasaxis]

Isn't that something, that an supposedly "outdated" software that goes back to "before the turn of the century" [I love to use that phrase ] with no updated pars and other such "upgrades" that we have to pay extra for, can do what all the software in the RPM catalog couldn't do. Further proof that Mr Taulbot was ahead of his time.

P.S. And it's cheap! :eek:

Yes, it certainly does have its moments, just as it did in last years KD with a cold exacta right there on top! :)

[traynor]

This brings up a really interesting point that distinguishes betting from post-race analysis. That is, how often would a user of the specific software apps have made that selection before the race? That is where the rubber meets the road.

As Sartin stated many years ago, there are indicators in the past performances that (usually) predict the winner, if used in some specific (and often seemingly arbitrary) combination. That is why many software applications have the facility to generate multiple ratings based on multiple factors and multiple criteria, all dependent on interpretation by the user.

Perhaps I spent too much time at too many handicapping seminars, listening to descriptions of how app X "woulda had the winna" if one had only used the "proper pace line" from last year at whatever track, and completely ignored all the disconfirming predictions made by that same software that that entry had little or no chance in the current race.

[Valuist]

I heard Tom Brady bet $4700 to win on Orb.

[Fingal]

I ran The Derby through a half dozen different programs. None of them chose Orb even in the top 4. Did anyone's software either professional or home grown chose the winner of the Derby?

Sure they did, but that's why only considering contenders is so important. There was one of those pastel colored pamphlets in the 1980s called Eliminate the losers. Never read the book, but that title alone is priceless & is the basis for everything.

[Speed Figure]

Here's the printout from Michael Pizzola's program "The Master Magician". "Orb" is on top with a strong odds line of 4-1 (based on his pace balanced speed figure as well as a strong PPF)

(hopefully the attachment is there when I submitted this)
Thank you so much for posting this screen shot! I've always wanted to know what this program looked like. Never seen it before until this, thanks!

[PICSIX]

Yet Mike himself picked Vyack. Does he have no faith in his own (expensive) software? :)

Mike used his more expensive software....Black Magic :lol: :lol:

[Xman2]

Laugh all you want. Black Magic makes me laugh too................all the way to the bank.

Xman2

[MightBeSosa]

If the numbers hadn't worn off my Kelco Calculator, I'd be a rich man today.

[Jingle]

I don't own the software but Pandy's Diamond System had Orb on Top, numero uno on his Diamond Rating. Check out his site.

MPH did not have Orb in the top 6.

[crusader222]

Hi,speaking of RPm has anyone tried the "One Minute Handicapper",thanks for your response.Jim

[crestridge]

Why did the M/L odds maker analyze Orb @ 7-2 (#1 pick)?

[Partsnut]

I ran The Derby through a half dozen different programs. None of them chose Orb even in the top 4. Did anyone's software either professional or home grown chose the winner of the Derby?
------------------------------------------------------------------
I posted Orb as my top rated Pace horse on the Sartin Alumni Board and on my Facebook page..
I used a program called AmerVar which is a DOS version of the Taulbot pace Calculator.

[Partsnut]

As posted on the Sartin Alumni Board

"The Kentucky Derby:
My pace ratings indicate 3 live contenders that should be considered for a win
bet. My final choice would be based upon the final odds for each of these with a
minute or 2 up until post time.
I will also look strongly at these horses for use in a couple of exacta
combinations.

RATING..............NAME

896.................ORB.......................LIVE CONTENDER
891.................IT'SMYLUCKYDAY............LIVE CONTENDER
891.................VERRAZANO.................LIVE CONTENDER
------------------------------------------------------------
886.................GOLDENSCENTS "

[Partsnut]

Hi Tom,

As usual, we are on the same page.
Nice job.

Both our top 3 were very similar.

What did you think about that Item I sent you?
I used it to narrow down my contenders.

[atlasaxis]

Hi Bill,

I messed up with the screen shot, tried to edit and ended up deleting by accident, can't seem to repost it, UGH! lol

Item is very interesting. I'm just going thru the manual first as you recommended and looking forward to taking it for a drive soon. Thank you again!

Tom