Workout of System

[Ocala Mike]

I am a devotee of 2nd time starters in maiden races. Made the wrong call in yesterday's 1st race at Belmont; split between the :3: and the :7: , I went to the :3: . My buddy chided me after the race for not going with the FTL horse, the :7: .

Question: Are any of you database guys out there interested in running a workout of ALL 2nd time starters in maiden races receiving first time lasix? Realize this is a tall order, but my bud insists it's a flat-bet winning system WITH NO OTHER PROVISOS. I am skeptical, without using some filters such as trainer patterns, recency, class drops, etc.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I use something like that, but ONLY in straight maiden races.

Both horses were coming off a layoff, but :7: showed early speed before faltering. One point for :7:. I find that L1 works mostly for horses that showed early speed and then faded. Another point for :7:. It really doesn't do anything for a horse that didn't show anything the first time. And the :3: already ran on Lasix and ran poorly. Probably not her surface. I really do like 2nd starters that are coming from a layoff with an equipment change and/or surface/distance change. It would signal to me that the connections are trying to win as early as possible and are trying everything possible without wasting a shot.

Well, that's my take on it. So I guess you can 86 this post. :)

Maiden Claimers are a beast of another sort, 2nd time starters do not do well in this case.

[pondman]

I don't have anything for you on this type of race at Belmont. But I have done many studies elsewhere and do spot play horses with 1 race as a secondary variable, but lasix isn't part of it. Of the tracks I play the 3rd race as a seondary variable produces a higher ROI. In general, you see dramatic changes; A new rider, distance, and surface is a good sign after a layoff, and can produce high returns.

[Ocala Mike]

Good stuff, guys, and thanks. Understand about the early speed and fade logic, as well as the caveat about MdCl types, HOWEVER, some of the biggest straight prices I've ever caught have been on horses whose first start was in a MdSpWt and showed absolutely NOTHING now dropping in for a tag.

Unfortunately, this is mostly anecdotal as I am not a "record-keeper" with stats to back up my intuitive "feel" for such spots with hard ROI data. Again, I would think it pays to keep trainer stats on such moves.

[pondman]

Unfortunately, this is mostly anecdotal as I am not a "record-keeper" with stats to back up my intuitive "feel" for such spots with hard ROI data. Again, I would think it pays to keep trainer stats on such moves.

I'd encourage you to keep long term records on this. This is one area where you can make a ton of money. I agree with what you are saying, but I do believe it to be a dependent variable-- with other things being the primary. I don't think trainer stats will help.

[Tom]

Straight maidens or claimers, too?
I might be able to do that.

[Tom]

OK, I did this tonight -

2nd time starters
First time lasix
MSW
All distances and surfaces
January 1, 2011 - April 30, 2013

[HUSKER55]

hey Tom, I had a guy down at the watering hole tell me that second time lassix was a better bet, in-his-opinion.

could you run that?

thanks!

[Ocala Mike]

Thanks, Tom. Could I ask what circuits were involved in that run? NYRA? Finger Lakes? Others?

[CincyHorseplayer]

I am a devotee of 2nd time starters in maiden races. Made the wrong call in yesterday's 1st race at Belmont; split between the :3: and the :7: , I went to the :3: . My buddy chided me after the race for not going with the FTL horse, the :7: .

Question: Are any of you database guys out there interested in running a workout of ALL 2nd time starters in maiden races receiving first time lasix? Realize this is a tall order, but my bud insists it's a flat-bet winning system WITH NO OTHER PROVISOS. I am skeptical, without using some filters such as trainer patterns, recency, class drops, etc.

You might want to look at Cary Fotias' work on plunge lines,compression lines,and negative spreads,which deals a lot with 1st out pacelines.Add in Mike Helm's pedigree stats on 1st starters,age precocity,class expectation,and distance capabilities and you get one hell of a zoomed in view on maiden races.I loved them before,but really love them now.

[OverlayHunter]

You might want to look at Cary Fotias' work on plunge lines,compression lines,and negative spreads,which deals a lot with 1st out pacelines.Add in Mike Helm's pedigree stats on 1st starters,age precocity,class expectation,and distance capabilities and you get one hell of a zoomed in view on maiden races.I loved them before,but really love them now.


Cincy -are they covered in "Blinkers Off" or in something else he wrote?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Cincy -are they covered in "Blinkers Off" or in something else he wrote?

Yep.I've always liked maiden races,I think they are easy and quick to handicap.Those two books added to them tremendously.

[BIG49010]

One of the best things I have found are works close to a minute for 5 furlongs, or 48 for 4 furlongs. Note these should be from the gate.

Take a look at the 7th race Sunday at Belmont the :8: - Irish Whisper had
several very good works over the last few months. The field didn't contain anything that was spectacular, and this was getting action. 2 + 2 equals
a 14 dollars horse.

[Tom]

Thanks, Tom. Could I ask what circuits were involved in that run? NYRA? Finger Lakes? Others?

All tracks. I could filter if you want.

[pandy]

Maiden races are my favorite betting races. I've never been a believer in first time lasix as a strong win indicator for longshot winners in maiden races. I have done extremely well first time blinkers. But, that doesn't mean that I'll bet a horse just because it's adding blinkers. Generally speaking, with solid longshot win predictors, the best plays are when a horse has a few good angles going for it.

As for betting every horse that gets lasix 2nd time out, or even second time lasix as a stand alone angle, it sounds like a big loser to me based on my experience betting maiden races.

[Ocala Mike]

All tracks. I could filter if you want.


How about NYRA only. Thanks in advance.

[lamboguy]

for a return on investment, 2nd time starters that run bad the first time is probably a good bet. betting horses that finish 2nd got to be an awful one

[Robert Fischer]

2nd time starters in maiden races receiving first time lasix? Realize this is a tall order, but my bud insists it's a flat-bet winning system WITH NO OTHER PROVISOS. I am skeptical, without using some filters such as trainer patterns, recency, class drops, etc.

a move like FTL with a 2nd time starter has potential.
I tend to like to use provisos or qualifications.

I believe (or like to believe) that there are logical reasons for why a horse could have a better performance in these situations(or in any unique angle).

If you can build upon that angle with that logic, I believe that it can at times strengthen the quality of the play.

Let's try 2nd time starter+ FTL. So maybe the idea is that the trainer didn't have him fully cranked first time out. In other words he gave him kind of an in-race workout to get his hooves wet. So then it may be possible to build on that angle by looking for that same scenario. Well... his first race he was entered in 5 furlongs. He broke 4th by 4-lengths into a fast pace and he finished 5th by 5-lengths. Today he's entered for a mile. OK.... well he ran kind of evenly and he had enough pace, that at a mile he could be near the pace today. Building. So maybe you go and watch the replay. He finished 5th of 6 horses... but you thought it was a smooth ride. He wasn't being whipped like crazy before the turn and he looked like he changed leads ok and ran fairly evenly. Building some more. Maybe you have enough for a bet here already. Now you look into the trainer. Well he's Gary Capuano. Maybe you remember another 2nd time starter he had win the stretchout. Maybe you look at his stats and his 2nd time numbers are better than his first time numbers. Well.. he hits a higher% and ROI 2nd time out... maybe this is a trainer who likes to give his horses a race?

So now you've built on that angle, and I believe you get a stronger play.

It's more work, and it will eliminate most of the 2nd time starter/FTL horses, so it isn't exactly a free ride to the VIP Kentucky Derby mansion suite.

[Tom]

How about NYRA only. Thanks in advance.

135, 12 wins 9%
ROI 82%

[Ocala Mike]

Thanks, Tom. Like Fischer says above, it's something to build on but needs work.

[RaceBookJoe]

for a return on investment, 2nd time starters that run bad the first time is probably a good bet. betting horses that finish 2nd got to be an awful one

I look at those types a little closer esp if they took some money in their first start, better if they showed something somewhere though but not necessary. I dont bet any angle just on an angle hunch, but will award points or give it a + sign.

[pandy]

I look at those types a little closer esp if they took some money in their first start, better if they showed something somewhere though but not necessary. I dont bet any angle just on an angle hunch, but will award points or give it a + sign.


Your comment reminded me of my first big longshot hit when I was 17-18 years old. I was at Aqueduct with a friend and in a maiden race there was a 2nd time starter by Bold Ruler. Even tough I had just started following racing, I knew that Bold Ruler was the hot sire.

The horse had gone off as the favorite in its first start and showed nothing. Today it was 22-1 in its 2nd start. I told my friend, "this horse is by Bold Ruler and it was the favorite just a few weeks ago, today it's 22-1. Seems worth a bet. Maybe the horse just needed a start." He said, "Yeah, that makes sense." We both bet it to win and the horse won easily and paid $46.00.

So many of these horses just need a race or two to learn. Just imagine yourself, the first time you got to bat in little league, did you get a hit? Probably not. Usually we all get better with experience. So, these 2nd time out maidens that improve adding lasix are probably just improving because of the experience. I doubt it has much to do with the lasix in most cases.

[RaceBookJoe]

Your comment reminded me of my first big longshot hit when I was 17-18 years old. I was at Aqueduct with a friend and in a maiden race there was a 2nd time starter by Bold Ruler. Even tough I had just started following racing, I knew that Bold Ruler was the hot sire.

The horse had gone off as the favorite in its first start and showed nothing. Today it was 22-1 in its 2nd start. I told my friend, "this horse is by Bold Ruler and it was the favorite just a few weeks ago, today it's 22-1. Seems worth a bet. Maybe the horse just needed a start." He said, "Yeah, that makes sense." We both bet it to win and the horse won easily and paid $46.00.

So many of these horses just need a race or two to learn. Just imagine yourself, the first time you got to bat in little league, did you get a hit? Probably not. Usually we all get better with experience. So, these 2nd time out maidens that improve adding lasix are probably just improving because of the experience. I doubt it has much to do with the lasix in most cases.

Its an old-time system, pretty sure i learned it from Lou Holloway..or at least a version of it. I think the original system was that the 1st time starter had to either be favorite or low odds in that first race. The thought process being that why would this horse be taking money unless the connections know something ( again old school, i read this early to mid 70's and it had been around well before that ). I've added my own twist to it, i dont play it 100% of the time but i unconsciously look for it in maiden races.