on to the Preakness

[Smarty Cide]

So who do you think is going to the Preakness

[wiffleball whizz]

So who do you think is going to the Preakness

Orb will be on his way and will blow the field to pieces.....

[johnhannibalsmith]

So who do you think is going to the Preakness

Who is left standing in the Baffert barn this week? It wouldn't be like him to not take a shot there after that group of 19 laid it all down today if he has anything with a fighting chance to skip over that Maryland strip.

[Rex Phinney]

I agree we should expect to see maybe a couple from Bafferts barn

[Striker]

Lukas will send at least one, as long as they came out of the derby okay, my guess is Oxbow.

[Robert Fischer]

I haven't watched a million replays, but from the race-shape = Normandy Invasion and Oxbow had solid performances while running against the grain.

I'm no fan of Oxbow's, but he ran a sub 46 first half. Everyone else who did that finished 12th or worse.

[CincyHorseplayer]

In that mud puddle they all had a chance.I'm with you brother let's look ahead.I'm pulling a my buddy Raybo here,I'm not allowing myself to process any information til it's set in stone!But I will say here's to hoping we get a 3yo colt that gets up to superb health and nastiness and wants to kick some f-in azz.We need a mean colt to take it to the house.I dream of pastures and legends of horseflesh.Let's see a mean,nasty big boy take us to the promised land of a Triple Crown.Til then..!Yeah.:cool:

[jerry-g]

I think Baffert said he was sending Gov Charlie to Preakness 5/18
and Code West on 6/19 Belmont Stakes. The Derby horses might
have some muscle soreness.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think Baffert said he was sending Gov Charlie to Preakness 5/18
and Code West on 6/19 Belmont Stakes. The Derby horses might
have some muscle soreness.

I hope Code West likes his loss yesterday in a N1X.Scary shiznit!!

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think Baffert said he was sending Gov Charlie to Preakness 5/18
and Code West on 6/19 Belmont Stakes. The Derby horses might
have some muscle soreness.

"There's nothing fresher than hand to mouth"-Jack Dempsey

[Shelby]

Lukas will send at least one, as long as they came out of the derby okay, my guess is Oxbow.


I read this morning that he's sending WillTC and Ox.

I also read that Pletcher isn't sending ANY of the Derby runners to Preakness. Maybe Belmont.

[lamboguy]

I read this morning that he's sending WillTC and Ox.

I also read that Pletcher isn't sending ANY of the Derby runners to Preakness. Maybe Belmont.if Pletcher doesn't send anyone to run in the Preakness, he will never beat ORB. ORB will get better in Baltimore and we will have a Belmont with less than 10 horses in it to watch the next triple crown winner.

[Shelby]

From Twitter:
Jennie Rees ‏@CJ_Jennie 3h
No #preakness for #kyderby runnerup Golden Soul. He'll wait for #belmont

[Valuist]

Before we hand the Woodlawn Vase over to the Phipps family, lets not forget Animal Kingdom, Mine that Bird, Street Sense, Barbaro, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus, Sea Hero, Unbridled and Swale, to name a few. All were pretty dominating in their Derby wins, only to have the tables turned at Pimlico.

Orb certainly was a strong contender going into the Derby, but many horses had legit excuses due to the surface.

[porchy44]

This Preakness reminds me of the 2011 Preakness.

Orb=Animal Kingdom
Oxbow=Shackelford

Don't know if it will be the same outcome though.

[Valuist]

This Preakness reminds me of the 2011 Preakness.

Orb=Animal Kingdom
Oxbow=Shackelford

Don't know if it will be the same outcome though.

I just saw a tweet that Chad Brown is reconsidering his decision not to run Normandy Invasion in the Preakness. He's not saying he will, but he's considering it.

Kind of reminds me of the 1988 Preakness, with Normandy Invasion playing the role of Risen Star.

[BlueShoe]

Without knowing who is going to be there and who is going to skip it, hard to get a handle on the Preakness. However, intend to take a long, hard look at those colts that were close to that suicidal crazy early pace in the Derby gumbo and then payed the price. The Derby will be a toss out, and assuming a much more sensible Preakness pace scenario, one of the good speed or close up type runners could be the value play. Lots of ifs and question marks at this time however, just an early thought.

[Striker]

Without knowing who is going to be there and who is going to skip it, hard to get a handle on the Preakness. However, intend to take a long, hard look at those colts that were close to that suicidal crazy early pace in the Derby gumbo and then payed the price. The Derby will be a toss out, and assuming a much more sensible Preakness pace scenario, one of the good speed or close up type runners could be the value play. Lots of ifs and question marks at this time however, just an early thought.
Palace Malice won't be going to the Preakness but Goldencents fits your theory here, and I think Krigger did a pretty smart thing in the derby basically wrapping him up in the stretch and saving whatever energy was left for possibly the Preakness.

[tucker6]

Without knowing who is going to be there and who is going to skip it, hard to get a handle on the Preakness. However, intend to take a long, hard look at those colts that were close to that suicidal crazy early pace in the Derby gumbo and then payed the price. The Derby will be a toss out, and assuming a much more sensible Preakness pace scenario, one of the good speed or close up type runners could be the value play. Lots of ifs and question marks at this time however, just an early thought.
sensible post, although with Orb fitting the description of good speed and/or close up runner won't preclude him from taking advantage of the pace scenario you describe either. Orb's versatility may be his biggest advantage in the Preakness.

[Leparoux]

Orb had a very wide trip and went by all of these horses with no problem. If he runs anywhere close to that race, he should win. I'm hoping he wins and meets up with Dreaming of Julia in the Belmont... now THAT would be fun.

[iceknight]

Orb had a very wide trip and went by all of these horses with no problem. If he runs anywhere close to that race, he should win. I'm hoping he wins and meets up with Dreaming of Julia in the Belmont... now THAT would be fun. Yes (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/78119/pletcher-considers-fillies-for-belmont-stakes)

[Valuist]

sensible post, although with Orb fitting the description of good speed and/or close up runner won't preclude him from taking advantage of the pace scenario you describe either. Orb's versatility may be his biggest advantage in the Preakness.

When has Orb shown good speed and/or been close up? I don't want to knock a legitimate Derby winner, but he is a closer. Lets not paint him to be something he isn't.

[menifee]

Departing is an improving horse and might be able to give Orb a run for his money.

Normandy Invasion was moved way too soon in the Derby. I don't think he would have won the race, but it certainly cost him second. A better timed move might give him a shot to take the Preakness if Brown changes his mind and sends him.

[Robert Fischer]

I just saw a tweet that Chad Brown is reconsidering his decision not to run Normandy Invasion in the Preakness. He's not saying he will, but he's considering it.

Kind of reminds me of the 1988 Preakness, with Normandy Invasion playing the role of Risen Star.

If he comes out of the race well, I don't see why not. Of course Brown knows a lot better what the Derby took out of him.

That was Normandy Invasion's best race of his career so far. His style has matured to the point that he no longer has tactical speed issues.
He was actually closer to the pace, than ideal, and then he was asked to make that fairly premature move approaching the stretch. He really a showed a ton of stamina, holding as well as he did. And he was moving well.

Seems like he's right where you would want him, and you want to keep him going in a Big Purse race like the Preakness where he faces a less daunting field and will get a much better trip.

These guys know their horses, and the form cycles and rest that they need to reach the goals for the year.

[Striker]

meets up with Dreaming of Julia in the Belmont... now THAT would be fun.
Revolutionary and Overanalyze as of now are targeting the Belmont per Pletcher, while he has said that he considering DoJ and Unlimited Budget for the Belmont.

[Leparoux]

Revolutionary and Overanalyze as of now are targeting the Belmont per Pletcher, while he has said that he considering DoJ and Unlimited Budget for the Belmont.
I hope he sends them all!!

[CincyHorseplayer]

When has Orb shown good speed and/or been close up? I don't want to knock a legitimate Derby winner, but he is a closer. Lets not paint him to be something he isn't.

Any closer able to put up 111 pace figure,as he did in the FOY, has some versatility.

[pondman]

I think Krigger did a pretty smart thing in the derby basically wrapping him up in the stretch and saving whatever energy was left for possibly the Preakness.

Krigger did what he's did every day at Golden Gate for 5 years. The reason he was on the horse is because nobody else would ride a $5,000 horse in the SA derby. Expect to see him trying for lead rider at Pomona

[Valuist]

Any closer able to put up 111 pace figure,as he did in the FOY, has some versatility.

Was that a BRIS pace figure?

[RXB]

Was that a BRIS pace figure?

CJ's (from his Beyer scale version). Although it was a classic example of a fast pace pulling midpack horses to internal figures that they would not run normally. The horse is not just a deep closer, nonetheless.

Orb is a good horse and Derby winners have performed well in the Preakness. But eventually, he will face a quality horse with superior early speed in a non-suicidal pace scenario on a day when that horse is ready to run its race.

[Beachbabe]

When has Orb shown good speed and/or been close up? I don't want to knock a legitimate Derby winner, but he is a closer. Lets not paint him to be something he isn't.

He's not a closer.

Nov 24.....second at the second call; wins
Jan 26.....third at the second call...wins
Feb 23....fifth at the second call....wins
Mar 30....fifth (1 1/2 lengths off the leader) at the second call.....wins

A stalker, maybe, but not a stone closer.

[JPinMaryland]

HE's not just a closer, I agree, however position alone is not enuf to say what kind or running style he has. So I have a mild disagreement with your analysis above. It's better to see how far back he was at whatever call. I dont have the PPs in front of me, but he seems to be at least back in the second wave.

[wiffleball whizz]

With Preakness week officially just days away can we clarify the Preakness pimlico myths........are the turns really sharper at pimlico?

What's the over under starting 6am Monday morning how many times you hear the phrase "the sharper turns at pimlico/pimlico has sharper turns then Churchill" I'm gonna say I hear it 26.5 times and that's a low number

I think espn one day google images the 2 tracks and pimlico has wider turns then Churchill.....total myth

[Valuist]

He's not a closer.

Nov 24.....second at the second call; wins
Jan 26.....third at the second call...wins
Feb 23....fifth at the second call....wins
Mar 30....fifth (1 1/2 lengths off the leader) at the second call.....wins

A stalker, maybe, but not a stone closer.

Feb 23---8 lengths out after 4 furlongs.
May 4---17th after 6 furlongs; 18 3/4 lengths out after 4 furlongs and 14 1/2 lengths out after 6 furlongs.

I guess its about interpretation of what is a closer. IMO, stalkers usually are never more than 5 or 6 lengths from the lead. Anything further back is a closer.

As for maiden races and the NW1X, its really an apples and oranges comparison because the opposition was considerably softer and he found himself closer to the pace by default. In the Gulfstream NW1X the pace was far, far slower than in the other NW1X that day won by Cerro.

[Robert Fischer]

In the Fountain of Youth Orb was well off a hot pace, but his personal fractions were respectable -
[24.12 46.54 109.71 1:35.37 1:42.24]. Out of context those fractions look like those of a presser or a horse loose on the lead.

He still figures to be more of a closer(maybe a stalker/closer) in the Preakness. That seems like his natural style, and they just won the Derby with that style.

He's not as vulnerable a plodder as his lengths back record looks, but obviously if someone makes a serious threat to wire or press the field(especially from a moderate pace), Orb will need to be significantly better than that horse to win.

[Beachbabe]

Feb 23---8 lengths out after 4 furlongs.
May 4---17th after 6 furlongs; 18 3/4 lengths out after 4 furlongs and 14 1/2 lengths out after 6 furlongs.

I guess its about interpretation of what is a closer. IMO, stalkers usually are never more than 5 or 6 lengths from the lead. Anything further back is a closer.

As for maiden races and the NW1X, its really an apples and oranges comparison because the opposition was considerably softer and he found himself closer to the pace by default. In the Gulfstream NW1X the pace was far, far slower than in the other NW1X that day won by Cerro.

On Feb 23, his Bris number for the second call was 111. The pace was super fast with the 6 fur split being 1:08.
Derby Day, the pace was ridiculous also. He was starting from post 16.

I still say he's a stalker but he's not suicidal. If horses want to go 1:08 or 1:09, he's not going to be a couple of lengths off the pace. IMO, he's more of a stalker when the pace is realistic.

[Rex Phinney]

He seems capable of winning from more than just one position.

He seems to be always in the right place depending on the pace, Florida Derby vs. Kentucky Derby are great examples, he was right where you would want him in both scenarios.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Good,fit,3yo's that are coming into their own start to display that by being more closeup to the pace.I think everybody has shown,by the pace and the pace figure from the Fountain of Youth,that Orb is capable of running as fast to the 2nd call,at least in number as Goldcents(111 to 113).In no way would I ever make an overall comparison of Orb to Secretariat except in the way Secretariat started in the derby as a closer,then evolved into a balls out frontrunner by the Belmont.I think this is a tendency the better 3's display and I think it Orb will show in the next 2 races.

[CincyHorseplayer]

With Preakness week officially just days away can we clarify the Preakness pimlico myths........are the turns really sharper at pimlico?

What's the over under starting 6am Monday morning how many times you hear the phrase "the sharper turns at pimlico/pimlico has sharper turns then Churchill" I'm gonna say I hear it 26.5 times and that's a low number

I think espn one day google images the 2 tracks and pimlico has wider turns then Churchill.....total myth

This'll be right up you alley then Whizz.Mike Maker had an article the other day on just the thing.I count only 8 of 15 won by pressers and frontrunners in the Preakness.

http://www.drf.com/blogs/pimlico-tight-turned-and-speed-favoring-nope

[CincyHorseplayer]

However this race works out it looks like it's going to be a very competitive,fun one.I like nearly half the field from one aspect or another!

[JPinMaryland]

This'll be right up you alley then Whizz.Mike Maker had an article the other day on just the thing.I count only 8 of 15 won by pressers and frontrunners in the Preakness.

http://www.drf.com/blogs/pimlico-tight-turned-and-speed-favoring-nope

why doesnt he show the splits at 3/4 and 1 mile? The conclusion he comes to seems to be a little at odds with how I remember this race. I think most of the winnners have to run hard on the turn and start making up ground there. If he shows the mile splits I would have to think that the winners were a lot closer than that

[CincyHorseplayer]

why doesnt he show the splits at 3/4 and 1 mile? The conclusion he comes to seems to be a little at odds with how I remember this race. I think most of the winnners have to run hard on the turn and start making up ground there. If he shows the mile splits I would have to think that the winners were a lot closer than that

1st call,2nd call suffice IMO.2nd call is 3/4's I'm sure.

[JPinMaryland]

1st call,2nd call suffice IMO.2nd call is 3/4's I'm sure.

If you look at the article it plainly says "2nd call (1/2 mi.)"

This seems like a perfect example of selective sampling; or maybe I am missing something

[CincyHorseplayer]

If you look at the article it plainly says "2nd call (1/2 mi.)"

This seems like a perfect example of selective sampling; or maybe I am missing something

OK.The first call in routes for handicappers determining running styles is the half mile.So we still have 10 horses of 15 who were a presser or a closer.The technicality still doesn't change the point.

[JPinMaryland]

I think it does change the pt. From the Preaknesses I remember most winners start to make a big move on the turn so they would be closer to the leaders at the 3/4 or the mile marker then in the derby.

They make big moves on the turn in the derby as well, but the derby is a longer race and often those moves are as they come off the turn, rather than as they enter.

In last weeks derby, Orb was 4 1/2 lengths back at the mile marker. I dont think you'll see the winner that far back at the mile marker (I think the mile marker for Prekness is as they come off the turn, IIRC).

I could be wrong, but it's an impression I've formed. It's hard to get historical chart calls for the Preakness :confused:

My only pt is that I think winners tend to be closer up in the Preakness than the derby.

That and providing data that leave out the calls at 3/4 and mile is intellectually dishonest.

[magwell]

Orb is a push button colt and Rosario fits him like a glove, if anyone beats him they will be the winner ......IMHO ;)

[FantasticDan]

Vyjack out, field now at 9.

[Striker]

Vyjack out, field now at 9.
I thought the field was at 11 with Vyjack, so now it would 10, but maybe I'm wrong.

Departing
Goldencents
Gov Charlie
Heat Press
Itsmyluckyday
Mylute
Orb
Oxbow
Titletown 5
Will Take Charge

[precocity]

I thought the field was at 11 with Vyjack, so now it would 10, but maybe I'm wrong.

Departing
Goldencents
Gov Charlie
Heat Press
Itsmyluckyday
Mylute
Orb
Oxbow
Titletown 5
Will Take Charge
who the hell is Heat Press
:D

[PhantomOnTour]

Right now i'm of the mind that Orb is going to slaughter these guys.
He will get a nice pace to shoot at, and now that Normandy is out, no one to match his move....save for maybe Departing.

Oxbow is steady and looks to get a repeat of his Derby trip (stalking a possible very fast pace). Maybe a little more patient ride than he got in the Derby can put him in the ex or tri...I think he beats Goldencents again.
Mylute will be too late imo
Will Take Charge can have an exotics impact

TRI:
Orb
Oxbow-Departing
Oxbow-Departing-Mylute-Will Take Charge

[Striker]

who the hell is Heat Press
:D
Got 2nd in the Tesio stakes at Pimlico, which is considered the local prep. I thought the winner of the Tesio, Abstraction, would for sure run in the Preakness, but guess not.

[FantasticDan]

Got 2nd in the Tesio stakes at Pimlico, which is considered the local prep. I thought the winner of the Tesio, Abstraction, would for sure run in the Preakness, but guess not.Yeah, Graham Motion said last week he was unlikely.

[nijinski]

Lukas switches from J Court to Smith on Will Take Charge . He made mention of the horses 17 hands height and how you should , or shouldn't handle a horse that big . Mike sounds like a good choice .

[rastajenk]

Got 2nd in the Tesio stakes at Pimlico, which is considered the local prep. I thought the winner of the Tesio, Abstraction, would for sure run in the Preakness, but guess not.
Local faves hit the Preakness board with some regularity. Notice, I said regularity, not frequency. But it happens; may have to take a long look at Heat Press.

[Lord Longshot]

I like the Baffert trained Governor Charlie. Ran a mile and an eighth in 1:47.54 last time out at the Sunland Derby. Governor Charlie - Orb - Oxbow are my top 3.

[Valuist]

I like the Baffert trained Governor Charlie. Ran a mile and an eighth in 1:47.54 last time out at the Sunland Derby. Governor Charlie - Orb - Oxbow are my top 3.

Sunland is like a paved highway. Can't take much from unadjusted times there.

[mostpost]

Sunland is like a paved highway. Can't take much from unadjusted times there.

What impressed me is Governor Charlie's six furlong work yesterday. Six furlongs in 1:10 4/5 at Churchill is an outstanding work in my opinion. It will be eight weeks since GC's last race and I think he needed a fast work to set him up for the Preakness. I will not be betting him in the win pool, but I think he is the optimal horse underneath Orb in the exacta. I am also looking at Departing, Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday in the second spot. Don't know yet if I will use all, some or none of those last three.

I also plan a saver bet on GC over Orb. Just in case.


Quick quiz time everyone. Only one other horse with only three letters in his name has won a triple crown race. He won two. What is his name and which TC races did he win?

[Valuist]

What impressed me is Governor Charlie's six furlong work yesterday. Six furlongs in 1:10 4/5 at Churchill is an outstanding work in my opinion. It will be eight weeks since GC's last race and I think he needed a fast work to set him up for the Preakness. I will not be betting him in the win pool, but I think he is the optimal horse underneath Orb in the exacta. I am also looking at Departing, Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday in the second spot. Don't know yet if I will use all, some or none of those last three.

I also plan a saver bet on GC over Orb. Just in case.


Quick quiz time everyone. Only one other horse with only three letters in his name has won a triple crown race. He won two. What is his name and which TC races did he win?


He could be, and I respect Baffert and the horse is lightly raced.

What time period are we talking about with your Triple Crown question?

[Striker]

Quick quiz time everyone. Only one other horse with only three letters in his name has won a triple crown race. He won two. What is his name and which TC races did he win?
Zev won the derby in 1923 as it was his 3rd race in 7 days, and he wired the Belmont.

[mostpost]

He could be, and I respect Baffert and the horse is lightly raced.

What time period are we talking about with your Triple Crown question?
1920's, but Striker beat you to it. Well done Striker. Did you know or did you have to look it up. I knew that Zev had won at least one Triple Crown race, but had to research to confirm he was the only three letter horse to do so before Orb. Did not know the Derby was his third start in seven days.

[mostpost]

Zev won the derby in 1923 as it was his 3rd race in 7 days, and he wired the Belmont.
For anyone who cares, Zev finished 12th in the Preakness on May 12,1923 seven days before the Kentucky Derby which was run on May 19, 1923. In between, on the fifteenth, he won the Rainbow Handicap at Jamaica.
A week after the Derby, Zev won the Withers Stakes and two weeks later the Belmont.

This information comes from a book which I highly recommend.
"Champions: The Lives, Times and Past Performances of The 20th Century's Greatest Thorougbreds."

It's published by the Daily Racing Form and includes some 19th Century Thoroughbreds as well. Every past performance for all the best horses is there.

[Striker]

For anyone who cares, Zev finished 12th in the Preakness on May 12,1923 seven days before the Kentucky Derby which was run on May 19, 1923. In between, on the fifteenth, he won the Rainbow Handicap at Jamaica.
A week after the Derby, Zev won the Withers Stakes and two weeks later the Belmont.

This information comes from a book which I highly recommend.
"Champions: The Lives, Times and Past Performances of The 20th Century's Greatest Thorougbreds."

It's published by the Daily Racing Form and includes some 19th Century Thoroughbreds as well. Every past performance for all the best horses is there.
Nicknamed "The Brown Express" and his most famous race was a match race at Belmont where he beat the English Champion Papyrus. It was very unusual for a horse to race from overseas in the USA back then.

[Beachbabe]

For anyone who cares, Zev finished 12th in the Preakness on May 12,1923 seven days before the Kentucky Derby which was run on May 19, 1923. In between, on the fifteenth, he won the Rainbow Handicap at Jamaica.
A week after the Derby, Zev won the Withers Stakes and two weeks later the Belmont.

This information comes from a book which I highly recommend.
"Champions: The Lives, Times and Past Performances of The 20th Century's Greatest Thorougbreds."

It's published by the Daily Racing Form and includes some 19th Century Thoroughbreds as well. Every past performance for all the best horses is there.

Unbelievable. Compare that to the frequency our stakes horses are run today.