ORB

[NY BRED]

The line has been drawn on the proper calling of the KY DERBY winner.

The call broght back intant memories of Durkin's call of:

arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

s/b an in interesting Triple Crown this year, glad Shug finaily
fufilled his dream

[Tom]

I was waiting for him to yell Scooooooooooooooooooore when he hit the wire!
Great call!

[jk3521]

IF he wins the Preakness, Orb will take the Triple Crown ! The Phipps' will assure that it will happen. There were rumors in '89 of doctoring of the track at Belmont to favor the speed of Easy Goer [also owned by Phipps] if I remember right. Easy Goer ran the second fastest Belmont Stakes in history that day. Of course even if the horse misses at Pimlico, I'm pretty sure the horse will win the Belmont anyway.

[Ocala Mike]

What jk3521 said. Baltimore will be the tough hurdle; he'll have a HUGE homecourt advantage at Belmont.

Two observations: 1. Was Shug holding some markers from Mike Smith going back a few years? Those fractions were for Orb; Shug had better send Mikey a few cases of Kentucky's best bourbon, I figure.

2. Late in the betting, Orb was 7-1 or so, then while they wer going in to the gate, it was reported that he was co-favorite at 6/1. How much freaking money came in late (whales with computers?) to drive him down to $12.80. Hard for me to believe that even with a huge win pool, the horse could drop like that late.

[nijinski]

[QUOTE=jk3521]IF he wins the Preakness, Orb will take the Triple Crown ! The Phipps' will assure that it will happen. There were rumors in '89 of doctoring of the track at Belmont to favor the speed of Easy Goer [also owned by Phipps] if I remember right. Easy Goer ran the second fastest Belmont Stakes in history that day. Of course even if the horse misses at Pimlico, I'm pretty sure the horse will win the Belmont anyway.[/QU

Nothing had to be done to help Easy Goer . That was a good distance for him . Can you really tamper with a track for one horse , without risking another might step up with the advantage ?

[therussmeister]

[QUOTE=jk3521]IF he wins the Preakness, Orb will take the Triple Crown ! The Phipps' will assure that it will happen. There were rumors in '89 of doctoring of the track at Belmont to favor the speed of Easy Goer ...
Can you really tamper with a track for one horse , without risking another might step up with the advantage ?
Can you really give much credence to rumors?

[Cratos]

Come on, stop the nonsense. Orb was the best 3 year old in this this year’s KY Derby. He might not be the best 3 year this year because there might be a late developing colt/filly that we have yet to see.

However to put this in context, I will draw your attention to Orb’s first race ever in which he ran at Saratoga last August and was sent off by the Saratoga bettors at over 25-1 on the tote board. I put $200 on him to win based on my belief that a Shug McGaughey maiden at Saratoga should not go off at those odds and not be bet. I was wrong in my assumption and in my wager, but Orb showed me something that he has continued to demonstrate and that is acceleration.

He covered the last 1/8 mile of that race in 12.69 seconds and in his next outing at Belmont he was made favorite and he lost when he acted up in the gate. But all wasn’t lost because for whatever reason Shug continued to work with him and he came back in his next race against the formidable Vijack and again showed his inherent acceleration; from that point to now the rest is history.

I am not a johnny-come-lately to the Orb bandwagon (see my posts prior to the Derby about Orb on this forum) and I don’t brag about my winnings or cry about my losing, but I am somewhat taken back that some of the better handicappers on this forum have yet to see the quality of Orb.

I expected Andrew Beyer’s prerace comments because he is a speed figure handicapper and acceleration is the second derivative of a horse’s movement that speed figure handicappers typically never understand.

The telltale point for me yesterday that Orb had a good chance was the 9th race when Pass the Dice made a big move in the slop to get second behind Delaunay in the speedy Churchill Downs Sprint; I felt then that Orb would do the same if the Derby pace was legitimate.

Will Orb win the Preakness and the Belmont? I believe so and it has nothing to do with the Phipps connections. Orb is just the best of this group and barring injury or some other unforeseen circumstance he will be very tough to beat and Pimilico with its slightly larger turns over Churchill Downs favor Orb’s running style better than Churchill Downs or Gulfstream; and Belmont and Saratoga is ideal for his accelerated running style.

Hopefully I will have time to post the KY Derby post energy distribution charts before the Preakness.

[PaceAdvantage]

They didn't doctor the track in '89. However, what they did do, was make sure that track was FAST come hell or high water.

I'll tell you a little story. I was still living with my parents in 1989 (I was 20 back then...so shoot me), and there was such a huge rainstorm the night before that Belmont, that that was the ONLY time I remember in my entire life that water got into my parents' basement. That's how hard it rained.

When I got to Belmont the next morning, the track, miraculously, was labeled FAST. And my parents live five miles from Belmont.

http://www.nytimes.com/1989/06/10/sports/belmont-stakes-a-wet-track-could-dampen-bid-for-crown.html

That was the most incredible feat of track maintenance I have ever seen. Period. Without a doubt.

I don't know if they brought in helicopters overnight to hover over the track and dry it out, but I wouldn't be surprised. To this day, I can't believe they had that track dried out by post time of the Belmont, let alone rated Fast when I arrived before NOON.

[Vinman]

Oxbow was the only horse running 1,2,3,4 at the 6 furlong mark (2nd), off a sizzling pace, that finished in the same zip code as the winner, running a respectable 6th, one position away from purse money.

If Orb can beat Oxbow in the Preakness, he wins the Triple Crown.


Vinman

[Cratos]

They didn't doctor the track in '89. However, what they did do, was make sure that track was FAST come hell or high water.

I'll tell you a little story. I was still living with my parents in 1989 (I was 20 back then...so shoot me), and there was such a huge rainstorm the night before that Belmont, that that was the ONLY time I remember in my entire life that water got into my parents' basement. That's how hard it rained.

When I got to Belmont the next morning, the track, miraculously, was labeled FAST. And my parents live five miles from Belmont.

http://www.nytimes.com/1989/06/10/sports/belmont-stakes-a-wet-track-could-dampen-bid-for-crown.html

That was the most incredible feat of track maintenance I have ever seen. Period. Without a doubt.

I don't know if they brought in helicopters overnight to hover over the track and dry it out, but I wouldn't be surprised. To this day, I can't believe they had that track dried out by post time of the Belmont, let alone rated Fast when I arrived before NOON.

Pace, for the over 40 years I have been in this game and watching the Triple Crown races, the three TC racetracks have always been given that “added touch” for the TC races, but I don’t believe that caused Easy Goer to run as he did in the 1989 Belmont. Easy Goer was a chronic arthritic horse with bad knees and that wasn’t a secret, but when he was right he was a tough as they came and Shug had him right on Belmont Day in 1989.

[PaceAdvantage]

And all I'm saying is there would not have been such a herculean effort to dry out that track had Easy Goer and the Phipps not been in that race.

This was as big a case of home court advantage as you will likely ever see.

[JustRalph]

Oxbow was the only horse running 1,2,3,4 at the 6 furlong mark (2nd), off a sizzling pace, that finished in the same zip code as the winner, running a respectable 6th, one position away from purse money.

If Orb can beat Oxbow in the Preakness, he wins the Triple Crown.


Vinman

Don't ignore what toll the Derby might have taken. Orb has one great run in him every race it seems. It has served him well. I said that before the Derby, I just doubted he would get such a clear path to use it. I never expected a pace where horses would be falling off so badly either. But he got it done, and you could tell it took a lot out of him? How much is the question? And to win the Triple crown
He has to do it again 2 more times for a total of 4 times. And that last one is a huge mountain to climb.

[jk3521]

And all I'm saying is there would not have been such a herculean effort to dry out that track had Easy Goer and the Phipps not been in that race.

This was as big a case of home court advantage as you will likely ever see.
Sorry, doctoring was a poor choice of words, but like you said it took a hurculean effort to dry out the track for tht day.

[Ernie Dahlman]

And all I'm saying is there would not have been such a herculean effort to dry out that track had Easy Goer and the Phipps not been in that race.

This was as big a case of home court advantage as you will likely ever see.

I believe the owners of Orb have something to do with the Jockey Club. It was this organization that was responsible for banning mudcaulks. On the Derby sloppy track some trainers may have chosen to use them as did trainers Nick Zito and Mack Miller. It's good to be King.

[classhandicapper]

They didn't doctor the track in '89. However, what they did do, was make sure that track was FAST come hell or high water.

I'll tell you a little story. I was still living with my parents in 1989 (I was 20 back then...so shoot me), and there was such a huge rainstorm the night before that Belmont, that that was the ONLY time I remember in my entire life that water got into my parents' basement. That's how hard it rained.

When I got to Belmont the next morning, the track, miraculously, was labeled FAST. And my parents live five miles from Belmont.

http://www.nytimes.com/1989/06/10/sports/belmont-stakes-a-wet-track-could-dampen-bid-for-crown.html

That was the most incredible feat of track maintenance I have ever seen. Period. Without a doubt.

I don't know if they brought in helicopters overnight to hover over the track and dry it out, but I wouldn't be surprised. To this day, I can't believe they had that track dried out by post time of the Belmont, let alone rated Fast when I arrived before NOON.

All of that is true, but regardless of whether it was intentional or not, IMO the track was also definitely favoring horses with deeper stamina that made sweeping outside moves.

[Ocala Mike]

I believe the owners of Orb have something to do with the Jockey Club. It was this organization that was responsible for banning mudcaulks. On the Derby sloppy track some trainers may have chosen to use them as did trainers Nick Zito and Mack Miller. It's good to be King.



:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

All you need to know about the HUGE homecourt advantage mentioned above. Like I say, Baltimore could be the tough one.

[chadk66]

no your really not going to change a track without it affecting other horses both for or against. your right, easy goer didn't need any help he wasn't going to get beat at that distance at that track anyway.

[PaceAdvantage]

no your really not going to change a track without it affecting other horses both for or against. your right, easy goer didn't need any help he wasn't going to get beat at that distance at that track anyway.Obviously, those working overtime on the track that night and their bosses thought otherwise...

[rrpic6]

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

All you need to know about the HUGE homecourt advantage mentioned above. Like I say, Baltimore could be the tough one.

Speaking of homecourt advantages...will Vyjack run in the Belmont? No cameras watching the barns there. Its Shug vs. the SuperTrainers this year.

RR

[Ernie Dahlman]

I once owned a homebred who won an off the grass grade 2 stake. A Phipps homebred finished 2nd. The race was a very weak dirt race. The graded stakes committee kept it a grade 2. Thanks Jockey Club.

[highnote]

I once owned a homebred who won an off the grass grade 2 stake. A Phipps homebred finished 2nd. The race was a very weak dirt race. The graded stakes committee kept it a grade 2. Thanks Jockey Club.


It pays to have local knowledge.

On a slight twist to your story... Do you remember Ormsby? He won the Grade II Excelsior back in 1997 at AQU. That was probably the weakest field ever for a GII. Yet, he won and got black type. I would never have bred a mare to him or bought one of his foals based on his GII win, but I would bet someone saw his history and based their decision to breed to him on that win in the Excelsior. Caveat emptor.

He was a funny horse. Ugly confirmation. I can't remember the exact number, but if he ran too fast to the half mile he would barely make it home, but if he ran a slow half mile he had a lot in the tank. In the Excelsior he got loose on the lead and cruised home in pretty good time, but the pace was moderate.