Orb - next Triple Crown winner?

[horses4courses]

Much the best in the Derby, can Orb win the first Triple Crown since 1978?

[Shelby]

No.

[depalma113]

He's certainly bred for it. If the jocks stop going insane on the lead, he might have to fight a little harder, but I think he has the best chance since Smarty Jones.

[PaceAdvantage]

One thing's for sure. He's the only one who has a shot... :lol:

[Rex Phinney]

You never can say until a horse does it, but I like his chances. He looked amazing today.

[lamboguy]

ORB certainly was great today. he will certainly give a good race in Baltimore.

i watched the replay and saw REVOLUTIONARY get himself stuck on the rail which was the worst part of the track. if this horse gets by his bad habits he will be better next time.

the race was a great race, i have no complaints about anything, i knew it was tough going in.

[johnhannibalsmith]

If it were most other trainers, I'd probably say no automatically. Something tells me this colt is probably only going to get better from race to race, which gives the cynical side of me a reason to doubt my doubts.

[nijinski]

I was worried about the horse holding it together for this crowd . He was
fantastic.
I think I'd be more worried about Shug.

[depalma113]

If it were most other trainers, I'd probably say no automatically. Something tells me this colt is probably only going to get better from race to race, which gives the cynical side of me a reason to doubt my doubts.

Doug O'Neil just said he thinks he can do it.

[thaskalos]

No chance.

I place Orb's Triple Crown odds at 30-1 against.

[johnhannibalsmith]

No chance.

I place Orb's Triple Crown odds at 30-1 against.

I always try to be the first to shit on the idea of the Derby winner taking all three and I must admit, I kind of like those odds. :)

[horses4courses]

I could easily throw away a Benjamin, or two, at those odds myself. ;)

[JustRalph]

There's a ton of horses coming out of this race hurting. They tried to be too close. Watch the replay. There were several horses swerving severely.

Watch the field literally reverse itself from the backstretch to the finish.

Two packs on the backstretch. Almost to a horse, the rear pack finished in front of the front pack. Amazing how one horse and rider can alter the course of history.

[Rex Phinney]

Something tells me that after the performance today and with those connections you won't find anyone actually giving you 30-1, just posting it on the Internet. LOL

[CincyHorseplayer]

I was worried about the horse holding it together for this crowd . He was
fantastic.
I think I'd be more worried about Shug.

He was cool as a cucumber in the post parade today Nij!

[PaceAdvantage]

I always hate when people post the type of thing I'm about to post, and I will add the disclaimer that I am no physicality expert and I am not all that familiar with how Orb usually looks/acts post-race, but something seemed off to me about the way he was walking after the race.

Anyone else get that feeling? Or was I just seeing things...

I guess we'll know in a day or two...

[horses4courses]

Something tells me that after the performance today and with those connections you won't find anyone actually giving you 30-1, just posting it on the Internet. LOL

Well, a Preakness/Belmont parlay would pay in the region of 7-2.
That's with a load of extra public money bet on the horse, and in no way reflect his true odds of winning.
Those true odds of winning, though, can't solely be based on the year 1978.
Let's see how the horse comes out of the race.
He has not had that heavy a workload leading into today.
Still a pretty fresh horse, trained by a shrewd operator.

[wiffleball whizz]

One thing's for sure. He's the only one who has a shot... :lol:

Why do I think this isn't the first time pace posting this response Hahahahahahaha.....whatever $4.40 is on a 2/5 is about the odds of it I guess

[depalma113]

Didn't see it, but did see that Will Take Charge was moving right with him until he ran up Verrazano's butt and almost went down. He might not have won, but I believe he would have been right there at the finish.

[Smarty Cide]

orb will win the preakness

[chadk66]

I always hate when people post the type of thing I'm about to post, and I will add the disclaimer that I am no physicality expert and I am not all that familiar with how Orb usually looks/acts post-race, but something seemed off to me about the way he was walking after the race.

Anyone else get that feeling? Or was I just seeing things...

I guess we'll know in a day or two...horses tend to walk differently/strangely in the slop

[JustRalph]

orb will win the preakness

I can't wait to bet against.

I hope for some new shooters

[Greyfox]

It would be great for interest in horse racing if Orb wins the Preakness.
That would fan the excitement for the Belmont.
Orb looked very good today.
But chances are he will not win the Triple Crown.

[nijinski]

I always hate when people post the type of thing I'm about to post, and I will add the disclaimer that I am no physicality expert and I am not all that familiar with how Orb usually looks/acts post-race, but something seemed off to me about the way he was walking after the race.

Anyone else get that feeling? Or was I just seeing things...

I guess we'll know in a day or two...

I thought he was pulled up a little abrubtly and I thought Shug reacted to it with a really serious look on his face .
Perhaps Shug was just very wound up , just my impression .

[dilanesp]

One thing's for sure. He's the only one who has a shot... :lol:

I always hate when people say this. It is contentless and tautological.

At any rate, yeah, he's got a small shot. It's really, really hard to win the Triple Crown.

But he's the one to beat in 2 weeks in Baltimore. This was an authoritative win and there wasn't really any horse who got into enough trouble that you would say that he would have beaten Orb but for it. I will take the 6 to 5 or whatever and bet Orb in the Preakness.

[thaskalos]

I always hate when people say this. It is contentless and tautological.

At any rate, yeah, he's got a small shot. It's really, really hard to win the Triple Crown.

But he's the one to beat in 2 weeks in Baltimore. This was an authoritative win and there wasn't really any horse who got into enough trouble that you would say that he would have beaten Orb but for it. I will take the 6 to 5 or whatever and bet Orb in the Preakness.
The Derby created more questions than it answered, IMO...and I think it's a mistake to consider Orb playable in the Preakness at anything close to 6-5 odds.

The Preakness on a fast track will be an entirely different ballgame.

[Rex Phinney]

I can't wait to bet against.

I hope for some new shooters

But who? I don't see a Shackleford or Rachel Alexandra here.

This horse just put the field away on a track and weather conditions he had never seen before. And he used up all the race track, clearly they were prepared to go as wide as needed to clear the traffic.

The one hang up would be a fast track with a speedball at pimlico running the race of his life

[Rex Phinney]

The Derby created more questions than it answered, IMO...and I think it's a mistake to consider Orb playable in the Preakness at anything close to 6-5 odds.

The Preakness on a fast track will be an entirely different ballgame.

The horse won just as easily at gulfstream which is not a closers favorite.

I don't see a horse with the staying power of a Bodemeister or Shackleford to stop him. Besides look at the fractions he closed into in the Florida Derby.

[MutuelClerk]

Not many backers were winning today. He really looked good. I dont wanna jinx him so I'll say no way. But I voted yes and I'm rooting for him, Shug and the owners.

[TJDave]

There were several horses swerving severely.


Haven't watched a replay but recollect that Orb was among them.

[nijinski]

It would be great for interest in horse racing if Orb wins the Preakness.
That would fan the excitement for the Belmont.
Orb looked very good today.
But chances are he will not win the Triple Crown.

Actually looked like a a nice size crowd , . Anyone know the numbers ?

[PaceAdvantage]

I thought he was pulled up a little abrubtly and I thought Shug reacted to it with a really serious look on his face .
Perhaps Shug was just very wound up , just my impression .Good point. When they cut to Shug right after the finish, he looked like he was attending a funeral...didn't look at all like he just won the Kentucky Derby. But then again, he's never been the most excitable fellow around the track...

[PaceAdvantage]

I always hate when people say this. It is contentless and tautological.My guess is you're using the word tautological incorrectly here. Feel free to look it up.

[nijinski]

Good point. When they cut to Shug right after the finish, he looked like he was attending a funeral...didn't look at all like he just won the Kentucky Derby. But then again, he's never been the most excitable fellow around the track...

That's why I'm concerned about the triple crown . Not worried about the horse . They'll need to carry off the trainer . :lol:
Very thrilled for him though .

[dilanesp]

Actually, having watched a better replay (I hate NBC-- why does every network think they need 400 camera angles and constant switching to cover a horse race?), it looks like Will Take Charge did get into the type of trouble that might have cost him a serious shot. (He was moving inside of Orb and got completely shut off by a tiring horse.) So if you want to try to beat Orb, there it is. But there's nothing fake about Orb's win.

(The Will Take Charge thing is truly depressing for me, actually. I had bet him on December 20 of last year at 300 to 1 in the Derby future book. Oh well.)

[dilanesp]

My guess is you're using the word tautological incorrectly here. Feel free to look it up.

Your guess is quite wrong. And I use words for a living.

It's probably better to explain this and get it over with.

A tautological statement is an argument that restates its premises and does no more, and is thus circular. A premise of the Triple Crown is that all 3 races have to be won, therefore, only the Derby winner can win it after the Derby. Saying the name of the horse adds nothing beyond its premises, and therefore is tautological.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Dilanesp - why not tell us about the word "pedantic?"

[therussmeister]

It's really, really hard to win the Triple Crown.

Which is why I am surprised, at this moment, the poll shows 46% voting for the triple crown.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I thought he was pulled up a little abrubtly and I thought Shug reacted to it with a really serious look on his face .
Perhaps Shug was just very wound up , just my impression .

I didn't notice the horse was pulled up early, but I certainly noticed Shug's reaction to winning the race, or lack thereof. He either didn't realize he had won (that was my impression), was in a state of shock (possible), or you're on to something.

[thaskalos]

The horse won just as easily at gulfstream which is not a closers favorite.

I don't see a horse with the staying power of a Bodemeister or Shackleford to stop him. Besides look at the fractions he closed into in the Florida Derby.
In the Florida Derby, the last 3 furlongs were run in 38 seconds...while in the prior race -- The Fountain of Youth -- the final five-sixteenths were run in a pedestrian 33.4...after a blistering pace -- which Orb stayed well away from.

I feel awkward criticizing a horse after it has impressively won the country's most famous race...but I just don't think that Orb is a standout in the Preakness.

I think that we didn't see the best of many of these horses today...

[Saratoga_Mike]

No chance.

I place Orb's Triple Crown odds at 30-1 against.

Now didn't you almost learn an expensive lesson by making statements like this last yr. :)

[johnhannibalsmith]

...

I think that we didn't see the best of many of these horses today...

I agree with this...

...unfortunately, the way this race was run, I don't expect that too many will reveal their respective bests in two weeks either. I'm inclined to think that probably half the field will be fresh faces.

[thaskalos]

No chance.

I place Orb's Triple Crown odds at 30-1 against.

Now didn't you almost learn an expensive lesson by making statements like this last yr. :)
I knew you'd like that. :)

[JustRalph]

Haven't watched a replay but recollect that Orb was among them.

Yep, just watched it again. I never bet a winner back that does that down the lane. I just think this horse got it all his way. He couldn't have had a better pace setup if they would have hired a rabbit. Props to the jock who kept him out of traffic. But watching Revolutionary and Mylute I think they could be competitive with him with less pace, for sure.

If you want to see a terrible ride, check out itsmyluckyday. Right down the middle taking tons of mud the whole way. It appears he ddnt want any part of 10f, but he couldn't have done worse if they paid the purse on who comes back with the most mud.

He had plenty of room to move the horse either outside or inside. He stayed right in the middle at the back of the first pack.

Rosario gets all the credit for this one, with a pat on the back to Mike Smith and his apparent "runoff"

[johnhannibalsmith]

... he couldn't have done worse if they paid the purse on who comes back with the most mud. ...

I really didn't want to gripe about the ride on my other pick here, so I'm really glad you did it for me... and as eloquently as possible. :lol:

[wiffleball whizz]

I hit the tri for .50 cents and I'm putting 1000 of the 1700 to win on orb in the Preakness.....6/5 will be an absolute gift in the Preakness there will be no new shooters that scare anybody and Definitly not scared of anybody that was in this field......and god forbid the track comes up sloppy again....

Anybody that thinks orb is getting beat in 2 weeks must live in one of those states where weed is legal.....

I used the 16 over 5 horses over all
And also used the 8 11 and 5 up top also and 200 show 8....

I put the odds of orb sweeping all 3 at about mathematically at 3/1.....40/1 is a absolute joke but history validates those odds though

[Rex Phinney]

In the Florida Derby, the last 3 furlongs were run in 38 seconds...while in the prior race -- The Fountain of Youth -- the final five-sixteenths were run in a pedestrian 33.4...after a blistering pace -- which Orb stayed well away from.

I feel awkward criticizing a horse after it has impressively won the country's most famous race...but I just don't think that Orb is a standout in the Preakness.

I think that we didn't see the best of many of these horses today...

We will agree to disagree, I haven't seen one yet showing me they can finish in :36 or faster and out finish Orb

Like I said if there was a Shackleford or Bodemeister out there I would not feel so strongly. As it is orb has shown he can close from 17th or 6th into honest or slow fractions.

[Beachbabe]

Orb has been getting better with each race. A perfect example of oft used term.."maturing". He started out his career as a bad actor, misbehaving in the gate and not expending much effort afterwards. But, to me, after having seen him in person in The FOY, he just looked like a horse that was getting to know what his "job" was. His works this week seemed to illustrate the image.

I believe, and sincerely hope, he's our next TC winner.

[sandpit]

Actually looked like a a nice size crowd , . Anyone know the numbers ?

151,xxx...good crowd, but the all day rain kept the infield crowd down a little bit.

[sandpit]

I didn't notice the horse was pulled up early, but I certainly noticed Shug's reaction to winning the race, or lack thereof. He either didn't realize he had won (that was my impression), was in a state of shock (possible), or you're on to something.

Shug was very emotional during the entire post-race press conference; he wiped away tears several times during it:

SHUG McGAUGHEY: I'm a little emotional. You know, this is just a great huge thrill for me, to be able to even participate with ‑‑ ever since I've been over here, I'm just thankful to have had the opportunity to have a chance to win and to be able to go over there and win and to be able to sit back and watch how much Mr. Phipps came to Payson Park on the Monday before the Florida Derby to watch Orb work, Stuart was there two or three times over the winter, but to see the kids at the barn and how much fun they were having and how well they were participating in this together, you know, that was what was so much fun for me. I would get up and drive to Payson Park when he was going to work or even Sunday morning after the Florida Derby, just had things to do up there, but I also wanted to see him and how he came out of the race and all that kind of stuff.
But it's just been ‑‑ this whole trip has been just something that's been different for me. I don't know, maybe the last five or six weeks has been about as exciting a five or six weeks as I've had, and to come over here the last 12 days and experience what we've experienced, from the fans and from the people to see this horse thrive the way that he's thrived and to get to this afternoon, to come over here today and hear the fans and then to see the horse run the race he rode, it's just something I can't really put into words.
Maybe one day when I settle down I'll be able to put it into words, but right now I can't.

[Striker]

Yep, just watched it again. I never bet a winner back that does that down the lane. I just think this horse got it all his way. He couldn't have had a better pace setup if they would have hired a rabbit. Props to the jock who kept him out of traffic. But watching Revolutionary and Mylute I think they could be competitive with him with less pace, for sure.

Just my opinion but Orb would have won even if the fractions were much slower.

[nijinski]

151,xxx...good crowd, but the all day rain kept the infield crowd down a little bit.

Thank You , horseracing is not disappearing any time soon . :)

[LottaKash]

"Shug" was pretty candid in his interviews, post race, and he kinda alluded to the fact that he was in the Derby, because he "really" belongs with these....

I'd say that; Shug will make his decision, and if he goes, then I think he is horse enough to repeat his good form again, and then again...Shug will let you know, and he was so tickled with his horse today..

Good race to watch today...A good rip roarin hoss race :jump: ....Pretty good bunch of horses this year...I am looking foreward to what comes next with many of these...

[Hoofless_Wonder]

It takes a great horse to win the Triple Crown, and I hardly think (at this point) Orb qualifies.

Great horses generally don't take four starts to break their maiden.

Great horses are handled with the Triple Crown path carefully planned out - Shug is on record stating back in January he had no idea Orb would bring them to the Derby.

That being said, I did like Orb a bit today and had some saver bets with him. But I don't think he beat much when a grinding plug like Golden Soul runs second and in a slow time, and his quick pull up after the race was troubling.

I'll root for him though, as a Triple Crown winner would be great for the sport.

[Greyfox]

Great horses generally don't take four starts to break their maiden.



Yeah. Sure. It took Sea Biscuit 17 tries. :rolleyes:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Yep, just watched it again. I never bet a winner back that does that down the lane. I just think this horse got it all his way. He couldn't have had a better pace setup if they would have hired a rabbit. Props to the jock who kept him out of traffic. But watching Revolutionary and Mylute I think they could be competitive with him with less pace, for sure.

If you want to see a terrible ride, check out itsmyluckyday. Right down the middle taking tons of mud the whole way. It appears he ddnt want any part of 10f, but he couldn't have done worse if they paid the purse on who comes back with the most mud.

He had plenty of room to move the horse either outside or inside. He stayed right in the middle at the back of the first pack.

Rosario gets all the credit for this one, with a pat on the back to Mike Smith and his apparent "runoff"

That was a deliberate drive out looking for the happy lane ride of dryness and you are interpreting this as a weakness!!!!!Man that is flippin rich!!That ride was like guiding a speed bike up to finish off weakness.Got it all his way?Granted he had a fast pace,but he was waaaaayy back in the turn.I guess that 2-1 stamina sire/damsire had nothing to do with it or that b-b+ mud rating either.The horse had the genes and the werewithal to f**k this miler crop up and he cut them to pieces.Frankly,I thought it enjoyable old chap!!:cool:

[depalma113]

Great horses generally don't take four starts to break their maiden.

If he had figured out how to get out of the gate, he would have won a first asking.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Thank You , horseracing is not disappearing any time soon . :)

Nij,with your love of pedigree and and my love of pedigree and handicapping and my love of partying til the wheels come off,I think this game of ours is heading in the right direction.I think intelligence,invlovement,and decadence all in one reality!This is happening,we(I can recruit my kids at 22-20 I am 40!) are young.They are into it.Make it a party they learn from.I got hooked at 23 years old.The first time I heard hooves and snorts it was over.I'm taking care of my end.My daughter can tell me if a favorite in a post parade is limping!How you doing?!!This game isn't disappearing on our watch bubba!Glad to know you are out there.:)

[burnsy]

It takes a great horse to win the Triple Crown, and I hardly think (at this point) Orb qualifies.

Great horses generally don't take four starts to break their maiden.

Great horses are handled with the Triple Crown path carefully planned out - Shug is on record stating back in January he had no idea Orb would bring them to the Derby.

That being said, I did like Orb a bit today and had some saver bets with him. But I don't think he beat much when a grinding plug like Golden Soul runs second and in a slow time, and his quick pull up after the race was troubling.

I'll root for him though, as a Triple Crown winner would be great for the sport.

Most great horses don't take 4 tries..........but how many reel off 4 in a row after, including the FOY, FLA Derby and the Kentucky Derby with each win EASIER than the one before? Thats the thing i like, this horse gets better with each start...he was so much the best yesterday that Rosario went 7 to 9 wide at one point in the race just to clear without trouble. Orb probably ran furthur than any of them and won with authority. You should know by now that the "plan" thing is sort of a "hope" deal. Trainers like Pletcher and Baffert "plan" to enter 4 or 5 of them (a year)..........that works out well doesn't it? The fact remains that these horses are babies and can grow and learn in the matter of one breakthrough race. These people that handle Orb have won at everything that life offers except a Kentucky Derby....now they have that too. They don't "plan" to show up for every derby....they let the horse tell them it belongs in the derby.......Big difference. What i'm saying is the "plan" is many times a farce. The horse either belongs or doesn't...this horse is really, really good...I'm the biggest cynic around here, i voted yes. The only thing standing between this horse and racing history is racing luck and the racing Gods......and in the last 35 years thats upset many chances.....the ability is definitely there, you can't "plan" that, only one in thousands and thousands of horses get this kind of talent and go to this level. After seeing what i saw yesterday, i like his chances.

[Bennie]

As a Shug fan for years, I will be routing for him in every race not just the Triple Crown races. He is a class act and his emotions yesterday are genuine. He has always let his horses mature and tell him when they are ready. Learned a lot from a gentleman that goes by the name of Whittingham I believe. Wish him , ORB, and the Phillips all the luck. If anyone deserves to be the next triple crown trainer it is Shug.

[FantasticDan]

104 Beyer for Orb.

[Shelby]

Good point. When they cut to Shug right after the finish, he looked like he was attending a funeral...didn't look at all like he just won the Kentucky Derby. But then again, he's never been the most excitable fellow around the track...


My mom only watches the races on Derby Day and she said "Geez, you'd think that trainer would be a little more excited."

[Tom]

If you look at Revolutionary at the 9.5 furlong marker, the Preakness distance, he is pretty even with Orb. I am not counting him out yet. Lukas's horse was not far off after that pace - he ran a Congaree race - the only one near the pace who was also near the finish.

Preakness shaping up to be a good race so far, imho.

[FantasticDan]

Orb this morning..

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BJgvIHTCQAA0vvY.jpg

[Valuist]

I like Orb's chances better in the Belmont than in the Preakness. He's a grinder, and the Belmont is a grinder race.

The pace was extremely fast yesterday, and that clearly helped all the closers. Normandy Invasion ran a big race; he was beaten 1 length for 2nd and he was the only horse near the pace that was around at the finish.

Usually when the pace is very fast in the Derby, it is slowish in the Preakness. The speed horses from the Derby usually finish toward the back, so they don't go on to Baltimore. The jocks are all aware of what happened in Louisville, and they take precautions of not doing the same thing.

Anyone who saw Donna Brothers before the race could get a good gauge of the surface. The area near the rail was pretty good and a good place to be, but about the 7-8 path was also good. In between, it wasn't good. Orb was out in that 7-8 area which was good, and Revolutionary was on the rail, which helped him.

I'd love to see Normandy Invasion go on to Baltimore, because he's a legit contender. There also will be a fresh Departing. As for the others in the field yesterday, some clearly didn't handle the track. At no point did Goldencents look comfortable yesterday. He was struggling to stay with the leaders for even 4 furlongs. I'd have to think O'Neill may give him another shot. Maybe the same with Verrazano.

[thaskalos]

This poll here has me wondering if perhaps we, the members of this here site as a group, are becoming less sophisticated as the time goes on.

I say this for two reasons...

A poll about two years ago clearly indicated that 33% of the members here were profitable players...while a subsequent poll, taken a couple of months ago, showed that this percentage of profitable players has now declined to about 16%.

And now...this poll here places Orb's chances of winning the Triple Crown at 4/5 ??

Come on...

[cordep17]

Much the best in the Derby, can Orb win the first Triple Crown since 1978?

Right now, He is in the best position to do it.

[horses4courses]

The results are skewed, due to people being optimistic.
No question, it's a very tall order for a horse to win a TC.

[johnhannibalsmith]

,... the members of this here site as a group, are becoming less sophisticated...

I just had a sandwich made of a slice of swiss cheese on bread with cheap mustard, a can of Mt. Dew, am now working on some wacky Spicy Lime Cheetos, while dangling a Parliament Light between my Cheetos-red lips... and you have the audacity to challenge my sophistication!! :mad: :mad:

:lol:

[thaskalos]

I just had a sandwich made of a slice of swiss cheese on bread with cheap mustard, a can of Mt. Dew, am now working on some wacky Spicy Lime Cheetos, while dangling a Parliament Light between my Cheetos-red lips... and you have the audacity to challenge my sophistication!! :mad: :mad:

:lol:

Well...there are exceptions...:blush:

[lamboguy]

This poll here has me wondering if perhaps we, the members of this here site as a group, are becoming less sophisticated as the time goes on.

I say this for two reasons...

A poll about two years ago clearly indicated that 33% of the members here were profitable players...while a subsequent poll, taken a couple of months ago, showed that this percentage of profitable players has now declined to about 16%.

And now...this poll here places Orb's chances of winning the Triple Crown at 4/5 ??

Come on...2-1 is probably an overlay now

[ArlJim78]

Can he win it? that was the question.
I don't know why there are any no votes.

[nijinski]

I just had a sandwich made of a slice of swiss cheese on bread with cheap mustard, a can of Mt. Dew, am now working on some wacky Spicy Lime Cheetos, while dangling a Parliament Light between my Cheetos-red lips... and you have the audacity to challenge my sophistication!! :mad: :mad:

:lol:
Oh the visual of that :lol: :lol:
But I agree I'm also :mad:

[rastajenk]

Can he win it? that was the question.
I don't know why there are any no votes.
That's why I voted yes. I wasn't asked if I thought he would do it.

[PaceAdvantage]

That's why I voted yes. I wasn't asked if I thought he would do it.Good point. Anyone who answered no would be dead wrong. This isn't an opinion poll, as worded. Some of our English language experts here should have picked up on that immediately.

[thaskalos]

Good point. Anyone who answered no would be dead wrong. This isn't an opinion poll, as worded. Some of our English language experts here should have picked up on that immediately.
Sorry...

English is a second language to me...

[nijinski]

Sorry...

English is a second language to me...

Happy Easter Thas !

[thaskalos]

Happy Easter Thas !
Thank you...and may all your wishes come true.

[wiffleball whizz]

Just watching the NBC replay when they cut to shug after they hit the wire maybe the reason for the delayed reaction was either he was watching the cd feed and there was tape delay or he was watching the NBC feed and not exactly sure that was orb...I doubt he could hear the race call....

Or he just wanted to make sure that was the 16 and he waited till the they zoomed in.....50 years of wanting it that bad can cause some weird reactions.....either way good for him not sure if he's had any positives in Beth's past but he just seems like one of the good guys in racing....not these other chemists u see these days....

How come Jamie ness didn't have a horse in here being the best trainer in country?!?!??

[PaceAdvantage]

Just watching the NBC replay when they cut to shug after they hit the wire maybe the reason for the delayed reaction was either he was watching the cd feed and there was tape delay or he was watching the NBC feed and not exactly sure that was orb...I doubt he could hear the race call....

Or he just wanted to make sure that was the 16 and he waited till the they zoomed in.....50 years of wanting it that bad can cause some weird reactions.....either way good for him not sure if he's had any positives in Beth's past but he just seems like one of the good guys in racing....not these other chemists u see these days....

How come Jamie ness didn't have a horse in here being the best trainer in country?!?!??This thread isn't about Ness...thanks.

[wiffleball whizz]

This thread isn't about Ness...thanks.

Post was a compliment to shug by the way.....great sense of humor by the way

[thaskalos]

Can he win it? that was the question.
I don't know why there are any no votes.
My mistake...

I only looked at the title of the thread...

[wiffleball whizz]

Thank you...and may all your wishes come true.

Kalo Pascha......hope you had a great holiday!!!!!!

Took my father out for a celebritory breakfast this morning at the local diner and saw a copy of the Eleftheros Typos sitting at the counter....and there was a picture of orb on the back cover....which is relevant to this thread...

Just had to clarify before getting flamed again by the czar....

Once again thaskalos happy holidays!!!!

[JimG]

This thread isn't about Ness...thanks.

Hi PA,

Out of curiosity, where did your old software have Orb rated? If you have a printout from the old program, I would like to see it. As I recall, it used to do pretty well on the big races.

Jim

[thaskalos]

Kalo Pascha......hope you had a great holiday!!!!!!

Took my father out for a celebritory breakfast this morning at the local diner and saw a copy of the Eleftheros Typos sitting at the counter....and there was a picture of orb on the back cover....which is relevant to this thread...

Just had to clarify before getting flamed again by the czar....

Once again thaskalos happy holidays!!!!
Kalo Pasxa to you too, my friend...

I knew that there was a reason why I liked you... :)

[PaceAdvantage]

Just had to clarify before getting flamed again by the czar....That ain't nothin'...just wait... :lol:

[CincyHorseplayer]

I just had a sandwich made of a slice of swiss cheese on bread with cheap mustard, a can of Mt. Dew, am now working on some wacky Spicy Lime Cheetos, while dangling a Parliament Light between my Cheetos-red lips... and you have the audacity to challenge my sophistication!! :mad: :mad:

:lol:

That's totally fuggin awesome!!:D

[dilanesp]

If you look at Revolutionary at the 9.5 furlong marker, the Preakness distance, he is pretty even with Orb. I am not counting him out yet. Lukas's horse was not far off after that pace - he ran a Congaree race - the only one near the pace who was also near the finish.

Preakness shaping up to be a good race so far, imho.

That's usually not a great indicator. If the Derby was 1 3/16th miles, Orb would have moved earlier and been in front of him.

[dilanesp]

It takes a great horse to win the Triple Crown, and I hardly think (at this point) Orb qualifies.

Well, Real Quiet came a nose away from winning it, and he wasn't great.

Sir Barton and Omaha did win it, and neither one of them was great. Assault wasn't exactly a world-beater either, though he did have a long career. Count Fleet won it, and may have been great, but he never ran again so who knows? And Seattle Slew had a fairly abbreviated career after the Derby, though he was certainly very, very good.

Plus, horses get better after winning the Derby as well. Alysheba was not the most impressive Derby winner ever (except for the fact that he athletically recovered from his stumble in the stretch). He was eligible for nonwinners of 2 before the Derby, and he ran 2:03 4/5 on a fast track. He turned out to be one of the best horses of the entire decade, and it started with an entirely legitimate Preakness victory 2 weeks later.

These are young horses. They can improve.

Bottom line, it's really hard to win the TC. But Orb's win yesterday is completely legit.

[dilanesp]

Dilanesp - why not tell us about the word "pedantic?"

I didn't start the discussion. I only responded.

[wiffleball whizz]

That ain't nothin'...just wait... :lol:

Hey don't forget about that $4.10 winner I gave u at yonkers last week!!!!!!!!

2 things of note after reading a article on carbon sports.com here are the updated orb odds going forward:

Will orb win the triple crown....
Yes +300
No -400

The also have orbs odds as +150 to win the Preakness....in my opinion with lots of horses prob not going to Preakness I think +150 is an outstanding price!!!!

I really think orbs gonna do it.....although through the years I
Remember sitting here on a Sunday night after derby thinking big brown smart jones I'll have another would come away with the clean sweep!! WRONG!!!!

[Sysonby]

I like Orb, but I think the Beyer is way too high for that race. Considering the mud and the pace, I think it's very hard to say much about the comparative quality of the field. I think someone earlier said that the rail was dead. Right on the rail was one of the only good places to be according to the pre-show, which indicated lanes 2-6 were a sodden gummy mess, ideal as it turned out for draining the energy of speed horses who were already running way faster than they should have been.

Revolutionary ran on the rail, got into the tri; Golden Soul spent a fair amount of time on the rail, got into the tri; Orb was kept outside of the gumfest, won the race. All horses who came from further back in the field or at least who came from there on Saturday -- not all that shocking, considering the track and the pace.

I voted no on TripleCrown, but would be pleasantly surprised if I'm wrong.

[jefftune]

It's so super tough for a horse to win the Triple Crown. Can Orb do it? Yes, but probably not. He had a perfect trip in the Derby and was the beneficiary of a very fast pace. Plus the track was sloppy. But I would love to see it. Let's hope he stays healthy, wins the Preakness, and gets a chance at it in the Belmont.

[wiffleball whizz]

Can't wait for the Preakness....looking like its gonna be a one horse race....

With a lot of the derby horses not coming back is this a case of them being scared of orb or they just wanna go back to the drawing board?

[JustRalph]

If you notice, the rail was not the place to be early during the rain. When the rain stopped and Donna Brothers did her schtick for NBC showing the rail mud and declared it the bet place to be, there was no water running down anymore.

It also had fresh blade marks in it. Looked like a snow plow had run through it.

[BlueChip@DRF]

orb will win the preakness
If that happens, I will bet anything Nick Zito puts up in The Belmont.

[Robert Goren]

I doubt it . Good 3 yo seem to come out the woodwork every year between the derby and belmont. I doubt this year will be any different. Recently there have been a lot of belmont winners that few people had even heard of on derby day.

[iceknight]

if DOJ runs in the Belmont, Orb has no chance to be a triple crown winner.. unless he truly truly earns it by beating her fair and square and I am willing to eat that humble pie for racing's greater glory.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/78119/pletcher-considers-fillies-for-belmont-stakes?source=rss

[wiffleball whizz]

Does anybody think there's a shot of seeing 4.80 and 3.20 win and place on orb???

Does anybody have a take on how the public will be backing orb off the derby win? Will he be coming into this race like a smarty jones or big brown and get hammered or will it be more of a funny cide/I'll have another with him getting decent backing but not getting buried at the windows..

Would it be in my best interest to take the +150 on a offshore site and risk sometimg bad happening over next 12 days or Just sit tight and wait and see what his odds will be in the Preakness???

In your opinion what's the highest this horse can go off at? I'm hearing Normandy invasion may race in Preakness will the public really like him that much to deflect some of the orb money?

[classhandicapper]

He's the most likely to keep improving all the way to the Belmont that we've had in awhile. So it's probably going to take a very good horse or a terrible trip to beat him.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Shug was very emotional during the entire post-race press conference; he wiped away tears several times during it:

]

Totally agree with you - I meant when they panned to a view of him a second after Orb went under the wire (he was watching a monitor at the time).

[Rex Phinney]

if DOJ runs in the Belmont, Orb has no chance to be a triple crown winner.. unless he truly truly earns it by beating her fair and square and I am willing to eat that humble pie for racing's greater glory.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/78119/pletcher-considers-fillies-for-belmont-stakes?source=rss

Umm, did you see Dreaming of Julia in the Oaks? I can assure you if someone is going to stop Orb is sure as heck isn't going to be Todd Pletcher throwing mud against the wall waiting for something to stick.

Todd Pletcher is full of flavor of the week type horses, none of them ever amount to anything. They win some nice races sure, but when it comes time to deliver the goods, Todd is always a step short. He and Baffert both recently IMO are sending out one dimensional horses, winning when their talent is enough and losing when it isn't.

[magwell]

The only thing that could stop him is if he doesn't show up...... Julia doesn't belong in the Belmont.......

[Burls]

Lanes 2-6 were a sodden gummy mess, ideal as it turned out for draining the energy of speed horses who were already running way faster than they should have been.

That sums it up for me.

CURLIN would have loved this Kentucky Derby.

[letswastemoney]

Orb already won against a moderate to slow pace in the Florida Derby.

Does it matter what kind of setup he gets? He could be like Zenyatta (and I did not like Zenyatta at all).

[westny]

It takes a great horse to win the Triple Crown, and I hardly think (at this point) Orb qualifies.

Great horses generally don't take four starts to break their maiden.
Great horses are handled with the Triple Crown path carefully planned out - Shug is on record stating back in January he had no idea Orb would bring them to the Derby.

That being said, I did like Orb a bit today and had some saver bets with him. But I don't think he beat much when a grinding plug like Golden Soul runs second and in a slow time, and his quick pull up after the race was troubling.

I'll root for him though, as a Triple Crown winner would be great for the sport.

Good point.

However In Orb's case, I saw his two races in NY. In his first or second race, or 2nd/3rd race, he just stood there when the gates opened.
When he realized the field left, he took off. Finished 2 and/or 3rd both times. Spotted field 7-10 lengths from a standing start.

I saw his pull-up and I don't think Joel was pulling him up "abruptly". I thought Joel couldn't get Orb to stop. The outrider on the pony came over to help. Orb was snorting and bothering the pony. Looked to me like the horse was really "pumped-up".

The only horse I thought was a "cinch" to win the TC was Point Given after his SA Hcp race. And look how Point Given's career went the rest of the way after the Derby. :ThmbUp:

[Valuist]

I doubt it . Good 3 yo seem to come out the woodwork every year between the derby and belmont. I doubt this year will be any different. Recently there have been a lot of belmont winners that few people had even heard of on derby day.

True, and a number of them weren't heard from after the Belmont.

[RXB]

Every year this poll gets taken, and every year the % of people predicting a Triple Crown winner is outrageously high. I guess, like the proverbial broken clock, they'll be right eventually.

[nat1223]

depends how he made it out of the kentucky derby..

[jdhanover]

The poll asks "Can Orb win the Triple Crown?" not "WILL Orb win the Triple Crown?"

I don't think he will but I think he can (and not because he is the only one with the chance but rather I think is good enough to potentially win). I think there will be a Birdstone -- a horse I actually DID have money on to win that year in the Belmont -- in the wings at the Belmont that will run him down late a la Birdstone.

But it would be GREAT for the sport if Orb does it. For that reason I will root for him though wont take the short odds and place a bet on him

[JustRalph]

Orb already won against a moderate to slow pace in the Florida Derby.

Does it matter what kind of setup he gets? He could be like Zenyatta (and I did not like Zenyatta at all).

I think it matters. He has one big run in every race it seems. If he's close enough or if the pace falls apart it serves him well. These horses don't always get their way. Traffic, pace, rider judgement etc all have to come together for him to win. So far so good. Many things can happen to get in the way.

I prefer to watch the kind of horses we rarely see anymore. The kind who go out and run towards the front and dare anybody to go with them.

[PaceAdvantage]

I prefer to watch the kind of horses we rarely see anymore. The kind who go out and run towards the front and dare anybody to go with them.I'm with you buddy. All these pace-dependent, trip-dependent types bore the crap out of me.

Give me another Holy Bull who just rocks and rolls with whatever is throw at him...can't believe it's been almost 20 years since that 1994 Travers...

[PhantomOnTour]

Presious Passion sure fit the mold, but he was turf, reminded me a little of Chief Bearheart.

Shackleford
Commentator

not many recent good ones come to mind

[SharpCat]

I'm with you buddy. All these pace-dependent, trip-dependent types bore the crap out of me.

Give me another Holy Bull who just rocks and rolls with whatever is throw at him...can't believe it's been almost 20 years since that 1994 Travers...


Gotta love The Bull who buried horses with his front-running style.

[JustRalph]

Presious Passion sure fit the mold, but he was turf, reminded me a little of Chief Bearheart.

Shackleford
Commentator

not many recent good ones come to mind

Rachel

[redshift1]

IMO Orb has a reasonable chance and with some racing luck could win the TC. From his PP's it looks like the biggest obstacle will be a poor start in a slowly run race (gate problems first two starts) providing of course he maintains his form for another month.

From 2000 I think he has the best chance since Big Brown and Smarty Jones . That said it's still an uphill battle. It would be no surprise if he lost to Normandy Invasion or Revolutionary.

.

[iceknight]

Slew also had a front running style right?

don't think i was even born.. thank god for video and youtube!

[iceknight]

Slew also had a front running style right?

don't think i was even born.. thank god for video and youtube!
8783PipiJbo

Until the end of the video, they don't even bother talking about the Triple Crown win! wow... and he was undefeated too!


Also, thanks for talking about Holy Bull. that was amazing!
6kAEwnW241s

[Valuist]

IMO Orb has a reasonable chance and with some racing luck could win the TC. From his PP's it looks like the biggest obstacle will be a poor start in a slowly run race (gate problems first two starts) providing of course he maintains his form for another month.

From 2000 I think he has the best chance since Big Brown and Smarty Jones . That said it's still an uphill battle. It would be no surprise if he lost to Normandy Invasion or Revolutionary.

.

Or Goldencents.

[ArlJim78]

If Orb is to be denied the triple crown I don't believe it will be a derby horse that does it.

[Valuist]

If Orb is to be denied the triple crown I don't believe it will be a derby horse that does it.

If it was a dry track I would agree. But not with that sea of slop. Any highly regarded horse who flopped can use it as a legitimate excuse.

[ArlJim78]

If it was a dry track I would agree. But not with that sea of slop. Any highly regarded horse who flopped can use it as a legitimate excuse.
What makes you think that the outcome would have been different on a dry track? It's not like Orb hadn't already turned in several quality dry track efforts that were arguably the fastest of this bunch. I think it's a mistake to consider the outcome as some kind of fluke just because it was a sloppy track.

Why doesn't Orb get an excuse for the slop? I mean how do you know that on a dry track he doesn't win by six lengths?

[Valuist]

What makes you think that the outcome would have been different on a dry track? It's not like Orb hadn't already turned in several quality dry track efforts that were arguably the fastest of this bunch. I think it's a mistake to consider the outcome as some kind of fluke just because it was a sloppy track.

Why doesn't Orb get an excuse for the slop? I mean how do you know that on a dry track he doesn't win by six lengths?

It wasn't meant to criticize Orb. He was a deserving winner, and he obviously handled slop. We also saw horses like Goldencents and Verrazano did not handle it well. Going into the Derby, I thought the three top 3 year olds were Orb, Goldencents and Normandy Invasion. Nothing has changed, IMO. It looks like Doug O'Neil and the owners of Goldencents agree.

IMO, one can't draw too many conclusions from off track results. We won't hold it against horses like Orb, Delaunay and Aubby K, who all handled it. But I will view horses like Golden Soul skeptically. Is he really moving forward or was it the slop? When I handicap the Preakness, I will be looking at dry track form.

[elysiantraveller]

It wasn't meant to criticize Orb. He was a deserving winner, and he obviously handled slop. We also saw horses like Goldencents and Verrazano did not handle it well. Going into the Derby, I thought the three top 3 year olds were Orb, Goldencents and Normandy Invasion. Nothing has changed, IMO.

:ThmbUp:

Orb was certainly good on Derby day and perhaps wins regardless but the race developed in a real strange way. The pace was wicked, Normandy Invasion was WAY too forwardly placed, Goldencents didn't fire, and a lot of horses had trouble with the conditions.

I think if you are handicapping the Preakness runners who were in the derby you can toss out the Derby.

[cj]

My partner in figure making pointed something out that I thought was interesting.

Since 1989, horses that won the Derby while 5 lengths or less behind early are 6-9 in the Preakness with an average payoff of $7.70. One broke down (Barbaro), Thunder Gulch was 3rd by 3/4 and later won the Belmont and Travers, and Go For Gin was 2nd by 3/4 of a length.

Horses that were between 5 and 10 lengths behind early in the Derby are 3 for 6 with an average win price of $7.30.

Horses that were more than 10 lengths behind early in the Derby victory 0 for 8 in the Preakness. Grindstone didn't race accounting for the other one. These include losses by 1 to 5 FuPeg and 6 to 5 Street Sense.

Just something to think about before crowning Orb.

[PhantomOnTour]

My partner in figure making pointed something out that I thought was interesting.

Since 1989, horses that won the Derby while 5 lengths or less behind early are 6-9 in the Preakness with an average payoff of $7.70. One broke down (Barbaro), Thunder Gulch was 3rd by 3/4 and later won the Belmont and Travers, and Go For Gin was 2nd by 3/4 of a length.

Horses that were between 5 and 10 lengths behind early in the Derby are 3 for 6 with an average win price of $7.30.

Horses that were more than 10 lengths behind early in the Derby victory 0 for 8 in the Preakness. Grindstone didn't race accounting for the other one. These include losses by 1 to 5 FuPeg and 6 to 5 Street Sense.

Just something to think about before crowning Orb.
Interesting - i was there when Monarchos couldn't get it done also.
Pimlico is a speed track and usually they don't set a suicidal pace in the Preakness, but there's a ton of speed signed on this year...
oxbow
goldencents
titletown five
govenor charlie

[Striker]

But I will view horses like Golden Soul skeptically. Is he really moving forward or was it the slop?
NTRA poll has Golden Soul ranked as the 4th best 3yo after the derby.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Rachel

That's the name I was going to!I'd put Fort Larned up there too.Can rate less than 2 lengths off a fast pace or go to the front and sprint home.

[CincyHorseplayer]

It wasn't meant to criticize Orb. He was a deserving winner, and he obviously handled slop. We also saw horses like Goldencents and Verrazano did not handle it well. Going into the Derby, I thought the three top 3 year olds were Orb, Goldencents and Normandy Invasion. Nothing has changed, IMO. It looks like Doug O'Neil and the owners of Goldencents agree.

IMO, one can't draw too many conclusions from off track results. We won't hold it against horses like Orb, Delaunay and Aubby K, who all handled it. But I will view horses like Golden Soul skeptically. Is he really moving forward or was it the slop? When I handicap the Preakness, I will be looking at dry track form.

I think in Goldcents cas he had just double topped out pace and speed and was likely to regress.Add in a fast pace and it was over for him,not the slop.I think he's dangerous going into the Preakness.

[precocity]

think governor charlie might surprise.

[RXB]

Govenor Charlie in Preakness = Midnight Lucky in Oaks.

[wiffleball whizz]

My partner in figure making pointed something out that I thought was interesting.

Since 1989, horses that won the Derby while 5 lengths or less behind early are 6-9 in the Preakness with an average payoff of $7.70. One broke down (Barbaro), Thunder Gulch was 3rd by 3/4 and later won the Belmont and Travers, and Go For Gin was 2nd by 3/4 of a length.

Horses that were between 5 and 10 lengths behind early in the Derby are 3 for 6 with an average win price of $7.30.

Horses that were more than 10 lengths behind early in the Derby victory 0 for 8 in the Preakness. Grindstone didn't race accounting for the other one. These include losses by 1 to 5 FuPeg and 6 to 5 Street Sense.

Just something to think about before crowning Orb.

This post has freed up 3k I had hidden in the house to bet 1k to win and 2k to place.....I'm a big fan of history repeating itself and it makes sense the horse won't close his way to a win

[Ocala Mike]

This post has freed up 3k I had hidden in the house to bet 1k to win and 2k to place.....I'm a big fan of history repeating itself and it makes sense the horse won't close his way to a win

ww, bet the whole $3k on your selection to PLACE; don't fight the tape on a horse who keeps improving, and may have not even liked the track in the Derby.

[Valuist]

NTRA poll has Golden Soul ranked as the 4th best 3yo after the derby.

Glad to hear it. I love to bet against horses I believe are too highly rated.

[Dahoss2002]

This poll here has me wondering if perhaps we, the members of this here site as a group, are becoming less sophisticated as the time goes on.

I say this for two reasons...

A poll about two years ago clearly indicated that 33% of the members here were profitable players...while a subsequent poll, taken a couple of months ago, showed that this percentage of profitable players has now declined to about 16%.

And now...this poll here places Orb's chances of winning the Triple Crown at 4/5 ??

Come on...So anything above that is an overlay?

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Yeah. Sure. It took Sea Biscuit 17 tries. :rolleyes:
Well, I had to go look up Seabiscuit's record, 'cause that's well before my time. According to Wikipedia, he did have a slow start to his career, and his overall record was 33 wins from 89 starts.

There's a difference between famous and great, and I guess our opinions differ on that.

On the other hand, I know John Henry also had a slow start to his career, and he did turn out to be a great horse.

Orb is not (yet) Seabiscuit or John Henry though...

[Rex Phinney]

It's like I wonder if some of you watched the Florida Derby at all? Orb was never more than 5 lengths from the front and with 3/8 to run Velasquez could have reached over and touched the leaders. Merit Man and Itsmyluckyday had a very soft pace that day and Orb put them away in maybe his easiest win of the year.

The horse looks to me like he has some tactical speed, sure he was way back in the derby but that should be attributed to a brilliant ride by Rosario not the horse being a one trick pony deep closer.

The biggest factor though is still noone can name who is going to go out to the lead and carry it even 9 furlongs, let alone anything further. Maybe (maybe) Goldencents can do it, but other than that, who leaves you with the warm and fuzzy feeling that when Orb comes knocking they are going to turn him back?

There is no Shackleford this year, there is no Bodemeister, no Rachel Alexandra.

[Striker]

:ThmbUp:

The pace was wicked, Normandy Invasion was WAY too forwardly placed, Goldencents didn't fire, and a lot of horses had trouble with the conditions.

Didn't Brown train him to be more forwardly placed leading up to the derby? He was running his first 1/4s way faster than the 2nd 1/4s during the works, which usually isn't how a horse that has shown his running style in his previous races trains. I thought he would be forwardly placed and stop, but he ran a pretty good race IMO.

[ArlJim78]

It's like I wonder if some of you watched the Florida Derby at all? Orb was never more than 5 lengths from the front and with 3/8 to run Velasquez could have reached over and touched the leaders. Merit Man and Itsmyluckyday had a very soft pace that day and Orb put them away in maybe his easiest win of the year.

The horse looks to me like he has some tactical speed, sure he was way back in the derby but that should be attributed to a brilliant ride by Rosario not the horse being a one trick pony deep closer.

The biggest factor though is still noone can name who is going to go out to the lead and carry it even 9 furlongs, let alone anything further. Maybe (maybe) Goldencents can do it, but other than that, who leaves you with the warm and fuzzy feeling that when Orb comes knocking they are going to turn him back?

There is no Shackleford this year, there is no Bodemeister, no Rachel Alexandra.
exactly, people are not seeing that he has tactical speed and act like he's just a one-dimensional deeper closer like you saw in the derby. tactics dictated that is where you needed to be that day. He could have been up in a forward position as well.
That was why I asked the other day, who from the derby is going to beat him in the Preakness? I don't see it. I'm not seeing the next Point Given, or Red Bullet, or Curlin out there.

[Rex Phinney]

I've just always thought that the Derby field, the size, the traffic, the circus was the biggest reason we haven't had a triple crown in so long. Too many years the best horse doesn't win the Derby, because that race has become such a pick-a-name from a hat kind of thing.

I'm excited about Orb because this year, squarely the best horse of the crop has won the Derby, from here it's just all about how he handles the 5 weeks and weather anyone is holding the magic bullet race it will take to beat him.

[iceknight]

There is no Shackleford this year, there is no Bodemeister, no Rachel Alexandra. they are not 3 year olds anyway, so how does it matter? :lol: What if Goldencents wires the field?

[CincyHorseplayer]

they are not 3 year olds anyway, so how does it matter? :lol: What if Goldencents wires the field?

He could,but Bodemeister last year was quicker and more bred for distance than Goldcents,and that didn't happen.

[Rex Phinney]

Titletown Five being entered severely hampers any chance Goldencents had. (Nevermind Goldencents has failed to hit the board 2 of his last 3).

Governor Charlie could be trouble if he minds his manners early and let's the other speed go on. I always think a 3 year old we haven't seen in a while is dangerous, they should be getting better all the time and when they get an extra few weeks away from the spotlight sometimes they come back huge. I had Will Take Charge in the Derby for the same reason.

[thaskalos]

What makes you think that the outcome would have been different on a dry track? It's not like Orb hadn't already turned in several quality dry track efforts that were arguably the fastest of this bunch. I think it's a mistake to consider the outcome as some kind of fluke just because it was a sloppy track.

Why doesn't Orb get an excuse for the slop? I mean how do you know that on a dry track he doesn't win by six lengths?

When I see a horse like Golden Soul finish second in a race of this quality...then I must assume that the sloppy conditions played a role in the race's outcome.

And when I see Palace Malice (the pace-setter) finishing ahead of horses like Verrazano, Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents...this assumption becomes even more convincing to me.

[elysiantraveller]

Didn't Brown train him to be more forwardly placed leading up to the derby? He was running his first 1/4s way faster than the 2nd 1/4s during the works, which usually isn't how a horse that has shown his running style in his previous races trains. I thought he would be forwardly placed and stop, but he ran a pretty good race IMO.

I get that was the plan but being forced to go 47 and change to be up there I'm sure wasn't in the plan.

[tucker6]

When I see a horse like Golden Soul finish second in a race of this quality...then I must assume that the sloppy conditions played a role in the race's outcome.

And when I see Palace Malice (the pace-setter) finishing ahead of horses like Verrazano, Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents...this assumption becomes even more convincing to me.
The more I read your posts, the more I like your thinking. :ThmbUp:

[cj]

When I see a horse like Golden Soul finish second in a race of this quality...then I must assume that the sloppy conditions played a role in the race's outcome.

And when I see Palace Malice (the pace-setter) finishing ahead of horses like Verrazano, Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents...this assumption becomes even more convincing to me.

Slop some role, pace HUGE role, IMO. This was a supersonic pace. When that happens, there is no telling how far back the speed, or those chasing the speed, will finish.

[thaskalos]

Slop some role, pace HUGE role, IMO. This was a supersonic pace. When that happens, there is no telling how far back the speed, or those chasing the speed, will finish.

In a "supersonic" pace...no one works harder than the horse on the lead.

It defies belief that all three of these well-regarded horses ( Verazzano, Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents) would finish behind the horse who set this suicidal pace....after one and a quarter miles.

[magwell]

Most of the horses that ran in the Derby hit the wall and if Orb shows up it will take a great performance to beat him.......:)

[horses4courses]

Slop some role, pace HUGE role, IMO. This was a supersonic pace. When that happens, there is no telling how far back the speed, or those chasing the speed, will finish.

From this, it would seem, you're implying that Orb is vulnerable in future.
Pace was totally in his favor in the Derby.
He may not see that scenario anytime soon.

[precocity]

dam everybody acting like orb is the next secretariat? and yes he is very vulnerable, I think the derby is a toss going into the preakness.

[Striker]

When I see a horse like Golden Soul finish second in a race of this quality...then I must assume that the sloppy conditions played a role in the race's outcome.

And when I see Palace Malice (the pace-setter) finishing ahead of horses like Verrazano, Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents...this assumption becomes even more convincing to me.
How about this 3yo crop is just not that good? Those 3 horses that you listed also might be a little overrated in terms of quality, especially getting the TC distances. But maybe you are right and a dry track will bring out a better performance. We will see in the Preakness with Goldencents, and Itsmyluckyday.

[tucker6]

How about this 3yo crop is just not that good? Those 3 horses that you listed also might be a little overrated in terms of quality, especially getting the TC distances. But maybe you are right and a dry track will bring out a better performance. We will see in the Preakness with Goldencents, and Itsmyluckyday.
I've seen a lot of 3 yo crops come and go, and this is above average IMHO. It's too early to say if any one or two break out to historical status, but it might be possible.

[tucker6]

dam everybody acting like orb is the next secretariat? and yes he is very vulnerable, I think the derby is a toss going into the preakness.
in my opinion, Orb has a better shot to win the Preakness than he does the Belmont. Regardless, he's no Secretariat.

[precocity]

orb is a good colt but I would just like to see a even playing field,not that slop fest that was the derby.

[precocity]

in my opinion, Orb has a better shot to win the Preakness than he does the Belmont. Regardless, he's no Secretariat.
and best believe if he does win the preakness they are going to be gunning for him in the belmont.surely everyone thought big brown was going to win that?

[ArlJim78]

and best believe if he does win the preakness they are going to be gunning for him in the belmont.surely everyone thought big brown was going to win that?
not everyone.

[cj]

In a "supersonic" pace...no one works harder than the horse on the lead.

It defies belief that all three of these well-regarded horses ( Verazzano, Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents) would finish behind the horse who set this suicidal pace....after one and a quarter miles.

Weren't they quite a bit wider? Just food for thought...

[cj]

Also, how much were those "well regarded" horses persevered with late once the rider realized they had no shot of hitting the board?

[antigeekess]

Based on the Derby, he's definitely the most likely winner in the Belmont. The Preakness I'm not so sure about. Hopefully Rosario can get him rolling right. If anybody can, it's him. That boy's got some noggin clock. (Horse name alert.) :D

[thaskalos]

Also, how much were those "well regarded" horses persevered with late once the rider realized they had no shot of hitting the board?

No one knows. :)

And who's to say that the reason these horses weren't "persevered with" wasn't because of their inability to handle the track?

I'm not pretending to know what happened, Cj...

All I am saying is that the circumstances of the race supply us with plenty of doubt as to whether or not this race could be taken at face value.

The pace was very fast...but I don't think that this factor alone could explain Golden Soul's second-place finish.

Nor do I think that the pace fully explains the drubbing that these "well-regarded" horses received in this race. Palace Malice had a four length lead at the half mile...and should not have been able to hold off the three horses that I mentioned. If Verrazano, Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents finished 14th, 15th and 17th respectively strictly because of the pace factor...then Palace Malice should have been pulled up in the race.

I was only responding to ArlJim...who suggested that the track condition might not have affected the Derby's outcome. IMO...the track condition played a huge part in the race.

[PaceAdvantage]

ww, bet the whole $3k on your selection to PLACE; don't fight the tape on a horse who keeps improving, and may have not even liked the track in the Derby.Is there any legal entity that would allow me to bet that whiff whiz does NOT have an extra $3k just lying around waiting to be bet on the Preakness?

[thaskalos]

The more I read your posts, the more I like your thinking. :ThmbUp:

It took you long enough...:)

[wiffleball whizz]

ww, bet the whole $3k on your selection to PLACE; don't fight the tape on a horse who keeps improving, and may have not even liked the track in the Derby.

To be honest after cj post betting this horse to win is out the window for me....people say if u need 6/5 so bad u have issues and I do need 6/5 but I'll look elsewhere...

If I do bet sometimg now it would be 1000 on orb to win the triple crown at 3/1 odds....then I could hedge off if anything....but me coldcocking this horse win place at 1.20 and .50 odds for win and place just not doing it....

[wiffleball whizz]

Is there any legal entity that would allow me to bet that whiff whiz does NOT have an extra $3k just lying around waiting to be bet on the Preakness?

And for the nightly let's break whiffs chops.....trust me pace when this post was made there was an extra 3k around the house....after tonight's work callout and baccarat session you couldn't find 3k with 28 cadaver dogs 15 FBI agents :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

If u came here and found 3k id split it in a heartbeat....prob with a little extra

[tucker6]

and best believe if he does win the preakness they are going to be gunning for him in the belmont.surely everyone thought big brown was going to win that?
I wasn't that high on Big Brown at Belmont. Leading up to the Belmont, I recall he was being trained more gingerly than before due to his quarter crack issues. That was a big red flag to me.

[ArlJim78]

I was only responding to ArlJim...who suggested that the track condition might not have affected the Derby's outcome. IMO...the track condition played a huge part in the race.
define huge. how exactly would the order of finish been substantially different on a dry track? which horses were advantaged and disadvantaged?
three of the four horses in the super were the consensus dry track selections.
I wouldn't say the track condition had a huge effect unless the super was littered with improbably longshots that made no sense and defied handicapping logic.
To me a dry track might have meant Goldencents and Verrazano finishing in the upper half rather that the lower half, but I wouldn't call that a huge difference. neither to me was a likely candidate to hit the board at the distance. as you have pointed out, they didn't even beat the rabbit.

[precocity]

I wasn't that high on Big Brown at Belmont. Leading up to the Belmont, I recall he was being trained more gingerly than before due to his quarter crack issues. That was a big red flag to me.
me either but i did think he would win the derby even from the 20 hole, might sound superstitious on big races even in this last derby besides my main handicapped bets i always make a exta and tri bet with the numbers :6: :4: :1: :2: boxed. 24$ each and i did hit that exta in the belmont and was nice cant remember what the numbers wore. you be surprised when you least expect it those numbers come in. but that's just me.

[precocity]

me either but i did think he would win the derby even from the 20 hole, might sound superstitious on big races even in this last derby besides my main handicapped bets i always make a exta and tri bet with the numbers :6: :4: :1: :2: boxed. 24$ each and i did hit that exta in the belmont and was nice cant remember what the numbers wore. you be surprised when you least expect it those numbers come in. but that's just me.
2008 belmont results
$2.00 Exacta 6-4 $659.00
$2.00 Trifecta 6-4-8 $3,703.00
$2.00 Trifecta 6-4-9 $3,954.00
$2.00 Superfecta 6-4-8-9 $48,637.00
$2.00 Superfecta 6-4-9-8 $47,309.00
:rolleyes:

[rastajenk]

I didn't remember the dead heat; I guess because the two horses were entirely forgettable, as were the rest of the field. That was a woeful bunch.

[Valuist]

define huge. how exactly would the order of finish been substantially different on a dry track? which horses were advantaged and disadvantaged?
three of the four horses in the super were the consensus dry track selections.
I wouldn't say the track condition had a huge effect unless the super was littered with improbably longshots that made no sense and defied handicapping logic.
To me a dry track might have meant Goldencents and Verrazano finishing in the upper half rather that the lower half, but I wouldn't call that a huge difference. neither to me was a likely candidate to hit the board at the distance. as you have pointed out, they didn't even beat the rabbit.

The off track was huge because very few of the horses had any established off track form. Most had never run on it so it was a complete wild card. I think anyone who liked either Goldencents or Verrazano going into the Derby should just draw a line thru the Derby pp (as long as their next race isn't on a sloppy track). Slop and fast track form are not similar, and should not be treated as such.

[PaceAdvantage]

And for the nightly let's break whiffs chops....You know the squeaky wheel gets the most grease...

[ArlJim78]

The off track was huge because very few of the horses had any established off track form. Most had never run on it so it was a complete wild card. I think anyone who liked either Goldencents or Verrazano going into the Derby should just draw a line thru the Derby pp (as long as their next race isn't on a sloppy track). Slop and fast track form are not similar, and should not be treated as such.
perhaps yes, of course sloppy form can be different than fast form but to what extent? I'm not one to totally ignore a result like that in the derby. I can ignore or throw out a result to an extent, especially if that result doesn't fit with any of the other data at hand, if it can't reasonably be explained another way.

Let's say I was a big backer of Verrazano prior to that derby (I wasn't this is theoretical), afterwards I am much more skeptical. No way would I just draw a line and forget about it, confident that it was a total throwout performance because of the track. No way could I convince myself that a muddy track alone cost him the victory or even a top placing. There were far too many other plausible factors that could have contributed to his poor performance especially in a race like the derby. (unproven in fast paced races, unproven to want the distance and/or declining form with added distance, relatively inexperienced and with handling adversity, rank in the stretch of the Wood, etc).

On the contrary, if Verrazano had previsously beaten Orb on a dry track and with a fast pace, had ascending form with added distance, etc, then yes I would be willing perhaps to draw a line thru the derby because of the mud. In that case the track condition alone would logically seem to account for the poor performance.

[OntheRail]

and best believe if he does win the preakness they are going to be gunning for him in the belmont.surely everyone thought big brown was going to win that?

You act as if Big Brown had a honest chance and got beat on the track. Had he not been shinned leaving the gate by Guadalcanal I believe the outcome would of been different.

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2008/0623/espn_bigbrown_200.jpg

[wiffleball whizz]

I didn't remember the dead heat; I guess because the two horses were entirely forgettable, as were the rest of the field. That was a woeful bunch.

Amazing how we forget when they're is a triple crown threat that loses how I forget what the top 3 finishers were....

For my life couldn't tell u who finished behind sarava....who was 3rd in the birdstone smarty jones race nor could I tell u who was behind datara in the big brown race!!!

[Capper Al]

I was impressed by what he did in the slop.

[Cratos]

in my opinion, Orb has a better shot to win the Preakness than he does the Belmont. Regardless, he's no Secretariat.

Neither were Seattle Slew or Affirmed and they both won the Triple Crown. Comparing any modern day 3yo to Secretariat is asinine. Secretariat was a once in a lifetime horse and this conversation would be lost in an explanation if he is dragged in to it.

Do the calculations and it is clear that Orb won the race when Rosario moved him on the far turn. Rosario took him 6 wide and Orb responded with a 25.28 (normalized) quarter; and kicked the final quarter in 25.98.

To beat Orb, he must be out run; there doesn’t appear to be a 3yo currently who can lay back and accelerate with him.

[pondman]

Orb? I doubt he'll recover in 14 days for the Preakness. I'd look at his grandsire for clues-- unbridled was much better bred but couldn't recover either. Maybe he'll be ready for the Breeder Cup in the fall. Triple Crown? No. It's not going to happen.

We will see if he reaches when he works. I'd suspect problems. Not the sturdiest looking creature. Running in the slop, like he did isn't the best for the rear end of a horse.

[SharpCat]

Orb? I doubt he'll recover in 14 days for the Preakness. I'd look at his grandsire for clues-- unbridled was much better bred but couldn't recover either. Maybe he'll be ready for the Breeder Cup in the fall. Triple Crown? No. It's not going to happen.

We will see if he reaches when he works. I'd suspect problems. Not the sturdiest looking creature. Running in the slop, like he did isn't the best for the rear end of a horse.


Gary Stevans said that ORB was still a fresh horse after the race, and the reason I know that is, he wasn't looking to pull up.

What about the rest of the horses who ran in the slop?

[cordep17]

You act as if Big Brown had a honest chance and got beat on the track. Had he not been shinned leaving the gate by Guadalcanal I believe the outcome would of been different.

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2008/0623/espn_bigbrown_200.jpg

Super confused...what am I looking at?
Thank you

[Al Gobbi]

Big Brown was not winning the Belmont that day. He threw a fit in the D barn earlier in the day and had foot problems in the lead up to the race.

[pondman]

Gary Stevans said that ORB was still a fresh horse after the race, and the reason I know that is, he wasn't looking to pull up.

What about the rest of the horses who ran in the slop?


You'd have to ask whether each and every horse went beyond their limits in the slop. Orb ran beyond expectations-- I think Shug didn't believe it.

In my opinion he won't run back to this in 14 days. Unbridled who was a much better bred horse, couldn't put a race together for a few months. Orb's sire and dam weren't sturdy. It's more genetics than conditioning. He didn't look all that positive to me leaving the track. If he isn't reaching under in the paddock and post parade, I'd avoid him at 7-5.

I'd look for others to improve from their rodeo rides.

[Rex Phinney]

You'd have to ask whether each and every horse went beyond their limits in the slop. Orb ran beyond expectations-- I think Shug didn't believe it.

In my opinion he won't run back to this in 14 days. Unbridled who was a much better bred horse, couldn't put a race together for a few months. Orb's sire and dam weren't sturdy. It's more genetics than conditioning. He didn't look all that positive to me leaving the track. If he isn't reaching under in the paddock and post parade, I'd avoid him at 7-5.

I'd look for others to improve from their rodeo rides.

Meh, Breeding is telling, but it isn't the end all of handicapping.

All we have todo is look back to Union Rags in the Belmont as proof. His pedigree said he shouldn't have a chance and he came storming home looking like a marathon candidate.

If Orb was the only one who ran in the slop 14 days before the Preakness I'd be worried, as it sits most the field is going to be in the same boat.

Lukas has thrown Titletown Five into the race, which presents a real problem for the Orb haters. Lukas saw the same run from Will Take Charge that we all did, IMO he knows Will Take charge is his best shot, and he has insured that noone on the front end is stealing this race.

[CincyHorseplayer]

You'd have to ask whether each and every horse went beyond their limits in the slop. Orb ran beyond expectations-- I think Shug didn't believe it.

In my opinion he won't run back to this in 14 days. Unbridled who was a much better bred horse, couldn't put a race together for a few months. Orb's sire and dam weren't sturdy. It's more genetics than conditioning. He didn't look all that positive to me leaving the track. If he isn't reaching under in the paddock and post parade, I'd avoid him at 7-5.

I'd look for others to improve from their rodeo rides.

What do you mean by sturdy?Is this a physical appearance observation?Because if it was meant for distance ability,of the horses with the speed to compete in this group,he is the best distance bred.

[pondman]

What do you mean by sturdy?Is this a physical appearance observation?Because if it was meant for distance ability,of the horses with the speed to compete in this group,he is the best distance bred.

I'm not talking about dosage.

Can he recover in 14 days? His pedigree says NO. He's the type of horse to play with a layoff, but a hat trick is a different thing. I wouldn't bet him without a visual-- walking, when the Rosario hops on, in the post parade, going to the gate.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm not talking about dosage.

Can he recover in 14 days? His pedigree says NO. He's the type of horse to play with a layoff, but a hat trick is a different thing. I wouldn't bet him without a visual-- walking, when the Rosario hops on, in the post parade, going to the gate.

I'm not getting the connection between pedigree and recovery time?Just because Unbridled ran a bad race on 2 weeks?I can get into esoteric rationale plenty but this sounds a little too far fetched even for me.

[Valuist]

I heard that somebody got down on Orb at 125-1 for the Derby back in January at one of the Vegas sportsbooks for a pretty good amount.

In the Fountain of Youth, I thought Orb was very live on the board and was surprised at how much action he took, considering he was coming off a NW1X win that was the decidedly slower of the two divisions (Cerro won the other). The $12.80 seems like a gift now, but Violence was 3-5. Cerro, off the same day/same distance win in faster time, was only 14.50-1. Somebody knew something back then, and they were right.

[Striker]

You'd have to ask whether each and every horse went beyond their limits in the slop. Orb ran beyond expectations-- I think Shug didn't believe it.

Plenty of clockers and others involved in racing had said Orb looked and trained the best of any horse running in the derby. His workout at CD, derby week caused him to be the ML favorite, so it would appear that he ran like alot of people thought he would.

[overthehill]

save your money. orb is not very good. I think the horse has been a bit lucky to win his last three races. I very much doubt that he will be that lucky two more times. I think if oxbow draws 1-2-3 in the preakness he will finish ahead of orb.

[JPinMaryland]

Orb may not be great but he's probably better than the other 3 year olds left in the series.

He also looks like he'd be hard to beat at a mile and a half. Preakness may be his toughest test.

[letswastemoney]

Orb may not be great but he's probably better than the other 3 year olds left in the series.

He also looks like he'd be hard to beat at a mile and a half. Preakness may be his toughest test.
I'd think it's easier for a horse to become loose on the lead and run away from Orb in the Belmont with every jockey concerned with conserving energy. I'm hoping if Orb wins the Preakness that he lays a bit closer to the pace in the Belmont.

[precocity]

I heard that somebody got down on Orb at 125-1 for the Derby back in January at one of the Vegas sportsbooks for a pretty good amount.

In the Fountain of Youth, I thought Orb was very live on the board and was surprised at how much action he took, considering he was coming off a NW1X win that was the decidedly slower of the two divisions (Cerro won the other). The $12.80 seems like a gift now, but Violence was 3-5. Cerro, off the same day/same distance win in faster time, was only 14.50-1. Somebody knew something back then, and they were right.
yeah I saw that had violence to win in my future pool 1 but did see orbs morning line in the foy 10-1 i think and he was just getting hammered down to 5-1. somebody knew something!I think if you look back at that thread some on here liked him alot, was the first I heard of him.

[Cratos]

save your money. orb is not very good. I think the horse has been a bit lucky to win his last three races. I very much doubt that he will be that lucky two more times. I think if oxbow draws 1-2-3 in the preakness he will finish ahead of orb.

I always give any poster benefit of his/her assertion when it is backed up with truth or logic. However the following assertion leaves me wondering if me and the poster who asserted “Orb is not very good” have been watching the same horse and did we watch the same KY Derby?

As of now Orb should be measured by the 3yos he is running against and in time history will determined whether he was very good, great or just the best of a mediocre crop of 3yos.

But for now we do have some metrics about Orb to look at and they are telling. First of all he clocked the KY Derby in 2:02.89 and that is not bad when you consider that the historical average for the Derby at the 1 ¼ mile distance (it wasn’t always run at the 1 ¼ mile distance) is 2:02.24; and Orb did it on an off track.

However the move that Rosario made with him on the turns might not make him great, but it does make him considerably good up to this point. He was 4 wide on the first turn and 6 wide on the second turn and this calculates to an estimated 109 additional feet that Orb ran in the Derby when compared to the shortest distance around the track.

This doesn’t mean that Orb was the only horse to go wide on the turns in the Derby because other horses in the Derby did also, but it does say that he was the only one to go wide and win and that might not make him “very good”, but it does make him better than the rest.

[magwell]

save your money. orb is not very good. I think the horse has been a bit lucky to win his last three races. I very much doubt that he will be that lucky two more times. I think if oxbow draws 1-2-3 in the preakness he will finish ahead of orb. If Oxbow beats Orb I'll know for sure the game has passed me by, and I'm the one that's way overthehill......:)

[Beachbabe]

save your money. orb is not very good. I think the horse has been a bit lucky to win his last three races. I very much doubt that he will be that lucky two more times. I think if oxbow draws 1-2-3 in the preakness he will finish ahead of orb.

I hope you can sell this sentiment to a couple of million people by saturday.

[dilanesp]

To the Orb-skeptics:

Answer honestly, how often have you picked the Derby winner to win the Preakness in the past?

If the answer is "never", you should reconsider your beliefs. In the last 30 Preaknesses in which a Derby winner started (Gato Del Sol, Spend a Buck, and Grindstone did not run), 11 were won by the Derby winner, Pleasant Colony, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, and I'll Have Another. So about 37 percent of the time, the Derby winner wins this race. Which means that you should be picking at least 1 out of every 3 Derby winners to win the Preakness.

This is in contrast to the Belmont. I think betting against a triple crown attempt is one of the best bets in racing. But the Preakness is often just a re-run of the Derby, and a superior front runner or a horse with a strong move to win the Derby can often repeat that effort against many of the same horses 2 weeks later.

I'm not saying you have to like Orb because of this, though I do. I am saying that I suspect a lot of handicappers don't even think about this and reflexively try to "beat" the Derby winner because they don't want to take a short price and express an obvious opinion. (Although as I recall, I got 8 to 1 on Charismatic in the Preakness.)

[thaskalos]

To the Orb-skeptics:

Answer honestly, how often have you picked the Derby winner to win the Preakness in the past?

If the answer is "never", you should reconsider your beliefs. In the last 30 Preaknesses in which a Derby winner started (Gato Del Sol, Spend a Buck, and Grindstone did not run), 11 were won by the Derby winner, Pleasant Colony, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, and I'll Have Another. So about 37 percent of the time, the Derby winner wins this race. Which means that you should be picking at least 1 out of every 3 Derby winners to win the Preakness.

This is in contrast to the Belmont. I think betting against a triple crown attempt is one of the best bets in racing. But the Preakness is often just a re-run of the Derby, and a superior front runner or a horse with a strong move to win the Derby can often repeat that effort against many of the same horses 2 weeks later.

I'm not saying you have to like Orb because of this, though I do. I am saying that I suspect a lot of handicappers don't even think about this and reflexively try to "beat" the Derby winner because they don't want to take a short price and express an obvious opinion. (Although as I recall, I got 8 to 1 on Charismatic in the Preakness.)

Under normal conditions, yes...but the sloppy track in the Derby presents an element of doubt, which clouds up the Preakness picture.

We all know that speed figures in the mud often do not repeat themselves on a fast track...and we also know that speed figures at a mile and an eighth are much more believable when compared to mile and three sixteenth races than they are when they are compared to races at a mile and a quarter.

I like comparing speed figures run on fast tracks...and Orb is not the fastest "fast-track" horse in the Preakness.

I'm not saying that he can't win, of course; I am just saying that he is not the standout that many are making him out to be.

A mile and three sixteenths race on a fast track does not play out like a mile and a quarter race in the mud.

[dilanesp]

You sort of missed the point of the post, but FYI, Smarty Jones and Sunday Silence won the Derby on off tracks.

[thaskalos]

You sort of missed the point of the post, but FYI, Smarty Jones and Sunday Silence won the Derby on off tracks.

What's the point of your post...other than to point out that those of us who are skeptical of Orb's chances of winning the Preakness might not be aware of the success that other Derby winners have had in the Preakness in the past?

And, IMO, Orb can hardly be compared to either Smarty Jones or Sunday Silence...

[magwell]

And, IMO, Orb can hardly be compared to either Smarty Jones or Sunday Silence... The jury is out on that one, but you could be right.... lets hope Orb stays sound and we can see if he is the real deal, imo from what I've seen so far he is, time will tell.......

[JPinMaryland]

I like comparing speed figures run on fast tracks...and Orb is not the fastest "fast-track" horse in the Preakness.

.


who, in your opinion, would be?

[precocity]

You sort of missed the point of the post, but FYI, Smarty Jones and Sunday Silence won the Derby on off tracks.
AND? SO DID ORB? CAN HE WIN THE PREAKNESS? WILL SEE.

[dilanesp]

Let's try one more time. If you don't like Orb, fine. If you never like the Derby winner back in the Preakness, you should engage in some self reflection given the Derby winner so often wins the Preakness.

[thaskalos]

Let's try one more time. If you don't like Orb, fine. If you never like the Derby winner back in the Preakness, you should engage in some self reflection given the Derby winner so often wins the Preakness.

You are being overly dramatic...

No one fits the description of "never liking the Derby winner back in the Preakness"...and everybody here knows that the Derby winners have been very successful in the Preakness in years past.

It has nothing to do with whether or not we like Orb in the Preakness.

It's about whether or not we can accept him at the unappetizing odds that he figures to go off at.

That's why I said that there is no real point made in your post.

Do I like Orb's chances in the Preakness?

Of course I do!

Would I bet him at 6/5 odds?

Of course not!

[dilanesp]

You are being overly dramatic...

No one fits the description of "never liking the Derby winner back in the Preakness"...and everybody here knows that the Derby winners have been very successful in the Preakness in years past.

It has nothing to do with whether or not we like Orb in the Preakness.

It's about whether or not we can accept him at the unappetizing odds that he figures to go off at.

That's why I said that there is no real point made in your post.

Do I like Orb's chances in the Preakness?

Of course I do!

Would I bet him at 6/5 odds?

Of course not!

If you have played the races for awhile and have bet against every Derby winner in the Preakness, you have an unexamined cognitive bias.

[thaskalos]

If you have played the races for awhile and have bet against every Derby winner in the Preakness, you have an unexamined cognitive bias.

No...I don't bet against every Derby winner in the Preakness.

I just avoid the ones whom I consider to be lousy bets.

[JPinMaryland]

If you have played the races for awhile and have bet against every Derby winner in the Preakness, you have an unexamined cognitive bias.


He never said that; and your posts seem to be incapable of acknowledging that. Is there a pt. you're trying to make that we dont understand?

[Robert Fischer]

If someone is going to test Orb in the Preakness, it seems most likely that it would be a horse who runs close to the pace.

I don't see any of these horses coming from the same setup as Orb and then out-finishing him.

Goldencents had a nightmare Derby. In spite of his inconsistencies, he's the main threat to set reasonable pace and be several lengths ahead of Orb when they start to be urged home.

Governor Charlie is another forwardly placed horse who's A-game could make Orb work from off a moderate pace.

Vyjack is maybe the 3rd threat. He had the fastest half mile in the Derby when his ground loss from post 20 is factored. He's run close to Verrazano and Normandy Invasion, and he figures to be high enough odds to include.


Orb far outclasses this bunch, but if the pace is slow enough, and any one of these 3 run their A race, Orb will have to run his A race.

[dilanesp]

He never said that; and your posts seem to be incapable of acknowledging that. Is there a pt. you're trying to make that we dont understand?

My post was about that issue. Lots of Orb skeptics are making rather generic arguments against the horse, which suggest that they do, in fact, bet against every Derby winner.

That's the question I opened with- do you bet against the Derby winner every year? Nobody is admitting it, but that doesn't mean they don't do it.

[thaskalos]

My post was about that issue. Lots of Orb skeptics are making rather generic arguments against the horse, which suggest that they do, in fact, bet against every Derby winner.

That's the question I opened with- do you bet against the Derby winner every year? Nobody is admitting it, but that doesn't mean they don't do it.
You say that you use words for a living...and yet, there is a lot of exaggeration in your writing. Do you write fiction novels?

I haven't seen any "generic arguments" here that would suggest lots of people do, in fact, bet against every Derby winner in the Preakness...

Would you care to point them out?

[Phantombridgejumpe]

But I do agree almost all who had Orb in the Derby will play him again (I dare say 90% who picked him will do so again).

I'd say a majority who picked against him in the Derby will try to beat him again (I will estimate 60%).

That leads to about half the money in the win pool being on Orb and him being about 3-5.

If I wasn't there for the wedding I won't go see the divorce! I picked against him and will do so again. Govenor Charlie likely to be my play.

[raybo]

Let it go, if the guy thinks that a 37% hit rate at 8/5 is a smart bet, from the Derby to the Preakness, let him make the bet, the more money bet on Orb, the merrier!

Can he win the Preakness? Of course he can. But so can several others in that field. The "fact" is, the Preakness is not the Derby, and never will be, different pre-race logistics and prep routines, only 2 weeks off, different track layout and surface, different surface condition (probably), different pace, different stretch distance, different race distance, different environment, different field, the list goes on and on. Each race dynamic is unique to that race, and no other race.

I doubt seriously that Orb offers the odds I would need, to bet him to win. Now, maybe in the super, but don't know that yet, have to wait for the data for all the entries.

[iceknight]

From a betting strategy, betting on Orb at odds of less than 3-1 does not make sense at all.

However, if one looks at the past 26 Preakness Stakes, in 20 of those the Derby winner hit the board, placed in 17 and won in 10 cases. There have also been cases where they have come 2nd or 3rd while being prohibitive favorites (Fusaichi, Street Sense) or not finished (Barbaro, rip fella).

But the place bet at 65% out of the last 26 events, is a strong one to ignore, and while it is not a mortal lock, definitely tri and super bets have to feature the Derby winner.
Also, let us not forget that Orb won the Florida derby drawing away well and the title of this thread is 'Can Orb be a TC winner" , "will orb be a tc winner"..

** I was able to get odds data for only past 26.

[dilanesp]

You say that you use words for a living...and yet, there is a lot of exaggeration in your writing. Do you write fiction novels?

I haven't seen any "generic arguments" here that would suggest lots of people do, in fact, bet against every Derby winner in the Preakness...

Would you care to point them out?

Off track, has to prove he can duplicate the effort, odds will be too short, he will bounce, etc.

[Sysonby]

Off track, has to prove he can duplicate the effort, odds will be too short, he will bounce, etc.

None of those comments in any way indicate that the individual making the comment bets against every Derby winner in the Preakness. You clearly thought you had a point you wanted to make and have manipulated other people's comments to try to give yourself a platform for making your argument. It's not all that valuable to the rest of us, but I hope you enjoyed it.

[pondman]

If you have played the races for awhile and have bet against every Derby winner in the Preakness, you have an unexamined cognitive bias.

The reasoning for betting Orb in the Preakness is going to be dramatically different than if you bet Orb in the Derby. You would be betting on the known in the Preakness, rather than what is unknown, with the belief that the known is greater than it is. The ratio is still going to be Unknown/Known -- 60/40. Is there anything in the known that make Orb a standout? I'm betting No. I don't see him as a standout, and see many reason to oppose him, without considering the odds.

[Saratoga_Mike]

But I do agree almost all who had Orb in the Derby will play him again (I dare say 90% who picked him will do so again).

I'd say a majority who picked against him in the Derby will try to beat him again (I will estimate 60%).

That leads to about half the money in the win pool being on Orb and him being about 3-5.

If I wasn't there for the wedding I won't go see the divorce! I picked against him and will do so again. Govenor Charlie likely to be my play.

I think he goes off at 8/5. I'd be shocked by 3/5. We shall see.

[RXB]

Forwardly placed Ky Derby winners have a high % of Preakness wins. But horses that have won the Ky Derby from the back half of the field early have shown a tendency more often to finish second in the Preakness. They often run well but don't win. Have to go back 26 years to find the last repeater who was in the back half of the Derby field after 4f (Alysheba) and 32 years to find the last repeater that was still in the back half at 6f (Pleasant Colony). Orb falls into the latter category.

[Robert Fischer]

...

...

Vyjack...

Vyjack OUT of Preakness

[Phantombridgejumpe]

take the under...

[raybo]

Off track, has to prove he can duplicate the effort, odds will be too short, he will bounce, etc.

The thread is about the possibilities of Orb winning the TC. Will he? Probably not. Can he? Sure. Will I bet him to win the Preakness? Nope, due to his probable odds being too low for his probability of winning. If he wins the Preakness, will he win the Belmont? Depends on how he comes out of the Preakness. 3 weeks isn't a lot of time. 3 races in 5 weeks is tough on any horse who was in contention in all 3, plus Belmont is grueling anyway. Probably won't win if he runs hard in the Preakness, like he did in the Derby, if he wins the Preakness in a stroll, maybe.

My odds to win the Preakness - 5/2 - 7/2, odds to win the TC - 6/1+.

Do I want him to win the TC? Absolutely!!

[thaskalos]

Off track, has to prove he can duplicate the effort, odds will be too short, he will bounce, etc.

These are not "generic arguments" which prove that some of us do, in fact , bet against all the Derby winners in the Preakness. These are fundamental questions that all thoughtful players ask whenever they place a wager.

Horseplayers don't just bet on the horses that they "like best". They also have to get something in the way of price...to offset the risk that the wager entails.

You said earlier in this thread that you would gladly take 6/5 odds on Orb in the Preakness...and I didn't see a single person admonish you for taking such a short price. This is your opinion...and you are entitled to it.

But now you've turned around and you are lecturing those of us who are "Orb-skeptics"...as if we are not entitled to an opinion of our own.

I, personally, am not looking for 6/5 shots when I play this game. And if I were looking for 6/s shots...there are better places for me to search to find them than in this Saturday's Preakness.

[raybo]

These are not "generic arguments" which prove that some of us do, in fact , bet against all the Derby winners in the Preakness. These are fundamental questions that all thoughtful players ask whenever they place a wager.

Horseplayers don't just bet on the horses that they "like best". They also have to get something in the way of price...to offset the risk that the wager entails.

You said earlier in this thread that you would gladly take 6/5 odds on Orb in the Preakness...and I didn't see a single person admonish you for taking such a short price. This is your opinion...and you are entitled to it.

But now you've turned around and you are lecturing those of us who are "Orb-skeptics"...as if we are not entitled to an opinion of our own.

I, personally, am not looking for 6/5 shots when I play this game. And if I were looking for 6/s shots...there are better places for me to search to find them than in this Saturday's Preakness.

:ThmbUp: Betting a 6/5 horse who is a 3 yo, running in a stakes race in May, after just running another stakes race 2 weeks earlier, is profoundly stupid, IMO. Do that 10 times and you'll lose at least 7-9 of those bets, maybe all 10.

[rastajenk]

But keying him in some small exotic bundles might be a worthwhile insurance policy.

[RXB]

:ThmbUp: Betting a 6/5 horse who is a 3 yo, running in a stakes race in May, after just running another stakes race 2 weeks earlier, is profoundly stupid, IMO. Do that 10 times and you'll lose at least 7-9 of those bets, maybe all 10.

Ky Derby winners repeat in the Preakness about 40% of the time.

In this particular case, the winner ran from near the back of the pack and those types have not repeated in the Preakness nearly as often as more forwardly placed Derby winners. But they have ran second quite a lot.

[dilanesp]

:ThmbUp: Betting a 6/5 horse who is a 3 yo, running in a stakes race in May, after just running another stakes race 2 weeks earlier, is profoundly stupid, IMO. Do that 10 times and you'll lose at least 7-9 of those bets, maybe all 10.

The thing is, powerful psychological factors cause us to want to beat favorites. It is very hard to separate those desires from dispassionate handicapping.

[dilanesp]

Let it go, if the guy thinks that a 37% hit rate at 8/5 is a smart bet, from the Derby to the Preakness, let him make the bet, the more money bet on Orb, the merrier!

Can he win the Preakness? Of course he can. But so can several others in that field. The "fact" is, the Preakness is not the Derby, and never will be, different pre-race logistics and prep routines, only 2 weeks off, different track layout and surface, different surface condition (probably), different pace, different stretch distance, different race distance, different environment, different field, the list goes on and on. Each race dynamic is unique to that race, and no other race.

I doubt seriously that Orb offers the odds I would need, to bet him to win. Now, maybe in the super, but don't know that yet, have to wait for the data for all the entries.

You are ignoring that some Derby winners look better than others.

If you bet against the Derby winner every year, you are a losing player on the Preakness, period.

[raybo]

But keying him in some small exotic bundles might be a worthwhile insurance policy.

Yeah, I already stated that I would consider him in my superfecta.

[raybo]

You are ignoring that some Derby winners look better than others.

If you bet against the Derby winner every year, you are a losing player on the Preakness, period.

I didn't say to bet against the Derby winner, did I? I said if you get 6/5 odds at a 37% hit rate, it's not a smart bet, didn't I?

You appear to be a player that bets the horse he likes regardless of it's odds. If so, then please keep playing!

By the way, I'm definitely not losing player on the Preakness. If I don't get the odds I want then I don't bet, period.

Keep posting your stuff, it's entertaining anyway. :lol:

[CincyHorseplayer]

You are ignoring that some Derby winners look better than others.

If you bet against the Derby winner every year, you are a losing player on the Preakness, period.

Dilan.Brother.I'm feeling everything you are saying but you are taking the wrong tack and if you didn't bet this guy in the Derby,well,he has come and gone my man.I love him too and have since the Florida Derby.I took my time by my pals and got beat up touting this guy.But it has become a lose lose situation.Insight has come and gone.I made morons out of a lot of peoples fears but that is over with.There is nothing to gain from the Preakness.I'm betting all turf these next 2 days!

[nijinski]

BOUNCE !

[Tom]

I hope that guy didn't make the big show bet!

[iRNA]

0-2-X pattern?

[Robert Goren]

It looked to me like Orb hated the surface.

[Tom]

Looked he had nothing. He backed up with no reason.

[MightBeSosa]

ok, what newspaper will run this headline
http://www.coverbrowser.com/image/signet-books/410-1.jpg


Hang that overloved favorite pardner.

[wiffleball whizz]

I'll have gone through life being a die hard racing fan and never see a triple crown winner......a year is a long time to wait for another try....will never happen again

[Robert Fischer]

First time he faced adversity since his 3rd start.

I don't think Orb's peak performance could have run down the loose Oxbow having to close against the grain.
He should have been able to beat Mylute for 3rd, but the adversity of running inside, trying to work his way closer to a speed favoring pace, shuffled back.. took away his chance at 3rd money.

[Longshot6977]

I'll have gone through life being a die hard racing fan and never see a triple crown winner......a year is a long time to wait for another try....will never happen again

35 years and counting for me (so far).

[nijinski]

Looked he had nothing. He backed up with no reason.

He really did look off today .

[_______]

I'll have gone through life being a die hard racing fan and never see a triple crown winner......a year is a long time to wait for another try....will never happen again

don't worry. next year 1/2 the planet will again convince themselves that whoever won the derby is a lock.

same nonsense. different year.

[Robert Fischer]

I don't think there was anything wrong with Orb per se. I just think there was way too much adversity today.

there was a real chance coming in to the Preakness that Orb was not a dominant horse in this class.

He hadn't proved his dominance yet.

It turned out that he isn't. He's just one of the best in this class.

He might win the Breeders Cup Classic. If there's a race like that and hot pace and it collapses, he has proven that he can capitalize.

[wiffleball whizz]

don't worry. next year 1/2 the planet will again convince themselves that whoever won the derby is a lock.

same nonsense. different year.

Hahahahahahahahahaha so true!!

[MightBeSosa]

No question he was profoundly overloved. Even by the sheets guys. Who should know better.

[wiffleball whizz]

If the 8 wins the last race at pimlico I'll take a baseball bat to the tv at best case scenario.....don't know what was going thought my mind at machine using the 10 that paid 50 and using 7 in Preakness not realizing I had no 6s till my father says u didn't use oxbow....was also ending with orb just very mad right now

[raybo]

Not sure if Orb could have won even if he was ready, the pace was so slow, he would have had to run down all the front runners. Oxbow and Stevens got a dream trip, easy lead, no traffic, and plenty left at the end.

[therussmeister]

don't worry. next year 1/2 the planet will again convince themselves that whoever won the derby is a lock.

same nonsense. different year.
More like 55.35% of the planet.

[BlueChip@DRF]

If the 8 wins the last race at pimlico I'll take a baseball bat to the tv at best case scenario.....don't know what was going thought my mind at machine using the 10 that paid 50 and using 7 in Preakness not realizing I had no 6s till my father says u didn't use oxbow....was also ending with orb just very mad right now


Did you use your whiffle bat?