My Derby analysis...better late than never...

[PaceAdvantage]

Shameless self-promotion on the front page follows:

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[Robert Fischer]

they say ITSMYLUCKYDAY wasn't fully cranked in the Florida Derby. He certainly was brilliant 2 back. If it's not my lucky day, may as well be yours.:ThmbUp:

[shots]

Frac daddy CD races

[nomadpat]

Love the 46z references in the write-up :lol:

[lamboguy]

i have no problem with his plays, but its going to be muddy there and REVOLUTIONARY should benefit the most from the mud. he was one of the horses i liked anyway. i was back and forth with ITSMYLUCKYDAY and REVOLUTIONARY for a decent show bet. the mud made up my mind. this is the only type of a race where you can unload in the show pool and get paid up to $6 for a horse this good. if REVOLUTIONARY gets a trip where he doesn't get bounced around, he is the most likely horse to finish 1-2-3. i love the way Pleasa has trained ITSMYLUCKY day even though i can't figure out his work pattern, he is a great conditioner and doesn't take a back seat to anyone. Todd Pletcher is in a league of his own, he puts everyone else in the back of the bus. his horses have all trained great and look better on the track than they ever have.

good luck

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Excellent write up, though I took a stand against the LA Derby and so I only like the 4th horse in your analysis.

Beyer does make a good point about less speed, though I'm guessing there will be more pace than some 'cappers might think. Disappointed that he simply sticks with the latest high Fig horse since he was burned by War Emblem - if Goldencents wins, I get nothing.....

Thanks for posting the chat from last night too.....

[johnhannibalsmith]

Love the 46z references in the write-up :lol:

Agreed, and hope you do ask him back just for the hell of it. :D

By the way, your picks suck... I see it almost the same way... planning to make a rare trip to the OTB to hammer on old Lucky today. So sorry. :D

Incidentally, as I'm sitting here computing my pick3s, 4s, and 5s and coming up with some big amounts... can someone please tell me that they do in fact offer .50 cent wagers on the pick and trifecta bets before I stand in line for twenty minutes and get told the base wagers are a buck today and find my wallet a little vacant? :kiss:

[FantasticDan]

Surprised not to see Shackleford in there :p

[depalma113]

$.50 is the minimum in pick 3's,4's,5's

[depalma113]

Exacta Box: Verrazano, Itsmyluckyday / Orb, Revolutionary, Normandy Invasion, Vyjack, Mylute, Java's War

Trifecta: Verrazano Itsmyluckyday / Those two + Orb / Those three + Revolutionary, Normandy Invasion, Vyjack, Mylute, Java's War

[PaceAdvantage]

Surprised not to see Shackleford in there :pCome on...everyone knows I only pick Shackleford in the Preakness!

[johnhannibalsmith]

$.50 is the minimum in pick 3's,4's,5's

Thanks!

[analyzer]

Revolutionary, Goldencents, Overanalyze, Verrazano, Java's War, and Vyjack. Can't decide between Goldencents and Revolutionary.

[Beachbabe]

For what it's worth:
Ed DeRosa, who writes a blog on Brisnet's site, picks Itsmyluckyday, also.

[pandy]

I picked Itsmyluckyday even though I'm not confident that he can get the distance. My software program picked him 2nd behind Orb.

[JimG]

FWIW,

My Kentucky Derby Picks.

12 Itsmyluckyday
3 Revolutionary
20 Vyjack
14 Verrazano

6, 10, and 16 underneath, if you are exotic inclined.

I am treading very lightly.

Jim

[098poi]

I just made my bets. I don't always bet these, in fact I haven't wagered in quite a while so I figure if I lose it's not the end of the world. A lot of number manipulation so I can't give my reasons but my bets are

$2 Ex

3/8 with 3/7/8/9/10/12 = $20

$2 Ex

3/7/8/9/10/12/with 3/7/8/9/10/12 = $60

$2 Tri

3/8 with 3/7/8/9/10/12 with 3/7/8/9/10/12 = $80

I put in $200 so I have $40.70 left. Let's see if I can leave that in there til the Derby!!

Good luck everyone.

[PaceAdvantage]

Great, everyone seems to be on the Itsmyluckyday bandwagon...currently 9-1 only... :lol: :bang:

You guys are pushing me over to Overanalyze and Mylute if this keeps up... :faint:

[thaskalos]

It may be true that the "fast, faint-hearted sprinters" are out of the Derby this year...but this doesn't mean that the pace of the race is going to be kind to the front runners.

In my view, three of the most well-regarded horses in this race all sport nearly identical running styles...and this is bad news for all three of them, given the race's grueling distance. With Verrazano in the race, I cannot see how either Itsmyluckyday or Goldencents can win here...nor can I expect Verrazano to win the race himself.

No...IMO, the way this race shapes up definitely favors a stretch runner...but which one?

Is there a stretch runner in this field who has shown the consistency that this running style demands...if he is to be considered a serious threat in a race such as this?

Is there a stretch runner who seems to pack a stronger late punch as the races get longer...which is an indication that today's classic distance might be to his liking?

IMO, there is...and that horse is Normandy Invasion.

Yes...he has only won a maiden race at Aqueduct...and he was outgamed to the wire by Overanalyze in the Remsen. But it seems that Overanalyze has taken several steps backward since that confrontation...while Normandy Invasion has kept his game intact.

He packs a strong late punch in every race...and his stretch run gets stronger as the races get longer -- which is what you want to see when horses venture into the classic distance for the first time.

IMO...he exhibits the right balance between speed figures and late pace, to take best advantage of the pace circumstances likely to present themselves in this race.

My only concerns have to do with his appearance and demeanor since he has arrived at Churchill Downs. Reports have him appearing noticeably underweight, and overly aggressive early in his recent morning workouts...and that has me scratching my head as I contemplate my Derby wagers.

After all...they don't run these races "on paper". :)

[johnhannibalsmith]

....

Incidentally, as I'm sitting here computing my pick3s, 4s, and 5s and coming up with some big amounts... can someone please tell me that they do in fact offer .50 cent wagers on the pick and trifecta bets before I stand in line for twenty minutes and get told the base wagers are a buck today and find my wallet a little vacant? :kiss:

Had to call a few audibles with a scratch in the eighth, but ended up playing my usual pick 4 & 5 tickets and made a rare trifecta and win bet.

R7: .50 P5 - 1,6,9 / 3,5,6,7 / 8,9 / 8,9 / 5,8,12,14,16,20 = $144

R8: .50 P4 - 3,5,6,7 / 2,5,8,9 / 8,9 / 3,5,8,9,10,12,14,16,20 = $144

R11: .50 tri - 12,16 / 3,5,6,8,9,10,12,14,16,19,20 = $90

$50 Win #12 = $50
$10 ex box 12,16 = $20
$1 super - 12/16/14,20/14,20 = $2

***

$450

***

About $350 more than I've fired at a Derby day in a half-dozen years. :D

[michiken]

My 'underneath' horse will be the :10: Palace Malice:

- Ignored Pletcher horse with a horrible name. His other ignored horse beats Dreaming of Julia earlier in the day with Mike Smith aboard and he rides Palace too.

- Sire is Curlin!

- Dosage and CD are in range.

- Equibase past performances say 'Stymied at the 1/8 pole' and I love the little rascals.

4w-8p-8s will be my only bet for a small budget as the Derby with this points systems leaves me cautious - could be a chalk fest.

Good luck to all!

Ken

[HuggingTheRail]

$1 tri box 3,5,16,17,20

$20 WP 3

$20 WIN 17

total $120

[analyzer]

I meant I could not decide between Verrazano and Revolutionary.

[analyzer]

Revolutionary, Goldencents, Overanalyze, Verrazano, Java's War, and Vyjack. I can't decide between Verrazano and Revolutionary.

[Ted Craven]

Mike,

Re Itsmyluckyday, another reason why I have absolutely no worries about many people using the same software (e.g. RDSS) and 'ruining the mutuels' - many good players make many good bets - and many of them completely different :lol:

Here's mine:

Revolutionary and Vyjack in the Win position
Exactas on those 2 plus Normandy Invasion over those 3 plus Goldencents.

That's as deep as I go!

I wish Itsmyluckyday had run its last race at anything close the Adjusted Speed Rating of its previous 2, and that those 2 (January GP) had been against rather stronger competition. I rated him, on purpose and badly, off his last line. Orb, same.

Anyway, as I said - I think it's wonderful when great minds don't think alike!

Agree 100% with Thaskalos on the relentless closing Invasion from Normandy. Less confident about him closing all the way.

Goldencents is our golden Early horse, and may hold on to Place.

Verrazano - who?

My screen:

http://www.rdss2.com/images/pa/CD0504-11.pa.png

.

[Striker]

My 'underneath' horse will be the :10: Palace Malice:

- Ignored Pletcher horse with a horrible name. His other ignored horse beats Dreaming of Julia earlier in the day with Mike Smith aboard and he rides Palace too.

- Sire is Curlin!

- Dosage and CD are in range.

- Equibase past performances say 'Stymied at the 1/8 pole' and I love the little rascals.

4w-8p-8s will be my only bet for a small budget as the Derby with this points systems leaves me cautious - could be a chalk fest.

Good luck to all!

Ken
I'm going with :10: Palace Malice to win it

[Saratoga_Mike]

I don't like Itsmyluckyday for three reasons:

1) He started racing too early as a 2-yr-old, proving himself very precocious, which has not been the profile of most recent Derby winners. In the past 10 yrs, no Derby winner made their first start before July. I read this stat five or six yrs ago, so it probably goes further back, but I only checked the last 10 winners.

2) I don't think he can get the distance.

3) I don't like the one prep race (least of my concerns though).

Given my horrible record at picking Derby winners, he'll probably win for fun.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm basing this on possible scenarios

scenario = Goldencents carries the lead into mid stretch

Full coverage Superfecta = $32
= Verrazano,Orb w/ Goldencents w/Verazzano,Orb w/ ALL

Budget Superfecta = $14
= Verrazano,Orb w/ Goldencents w/Verazzano,Orb w/ (3,5,6,9,11,15)

same scenario play I used with Street Sense,Curlin and HardSpun in 2 hole.
I did the "budget" that year and I think it was Sedgefield cost me 4th by a photo for a $20K? superfecta :D

[Maximillion]

Im not sure that Overanalyze has "regressed".....he may have been short in his first start of the year.True ,he beat a slow group at OP...but was there a need to run "big" figure?

My top pick is Java's War but also playing Overanalyze as well.....the price should be right.

[Red Knave]

My prognostications -
Win contenders are C
Possible in the money horses after that

CD 11 (Main.CD 11) Bet Int=19
sort:Pct+$Net Time: 15:03:20 Min: 3:20:39
Prime Cont=4 FH Cont=50% +1
Prg Horse Con Odds Prob $Net Opt% Gr |
14 Verrazano C 4.00 12.7 $1.27 -9.13% D |
20 Vyjack C 15.00 12.4 $3.97 6.57% A+ |
5 Normandy Invasion C 12.00 11.1 $2.88 3.67% A+ |
3 Revolutionary C 10.00 7.8 $1.72 -1.40% B |
12 Itsmyluckyday f 15.00 7.2 $2.30 1.00% A |
8 Goldencents f 5.00 7.0 $0.84 -11.60% F |
16 Orb f 3.50 6.7 $0.61 -19.86% F |
10 Palace Malice f 20.00 5.6 $2.36 0.90% A |
6 Mylute f 15.00 3.9 $1.26 -2.47% D |
9 Overanalyze f 15.00 3.6 $1.16 -2.80% F |

Here's my tickets

[PaceAdvantage]

Mike,

Re Itsmyluckyday, another reason why I have absolutely no worries about many people using the same software (e.g. RDSS) and 'ruining the mutuels' - many good players make many good bets - and many of them completely different :lol:

Here's mine:

Revolutionary and Vyjack in the Win position
Exactas on those 2 plus Normandy Invasion over those 3 plus Goldencents.

That's as deep as I go!

I wish Itsmyluckyday had run its last race at anything close the Adjusted Speed Rating of its previous 2, and that those 2 (January GP) had been against rather stronger competition. I rated him, on purpose and badly, off his last line. Orb, same.

Anyway, as I said - I think it's wonderful when great minds don't think alike!

Agree 100% with Thaskalos on the relentless closing Invasion from Normandy. Less confident about him closing all the way.

Goldencents is our golden Early horse, and may hold on to Place.

Verrazano - who?

My screen:

http://www.rdss2.com/images/pa/CD0504-11.pa.png

.Hey Ted...you did read where I wrote that the horse I LIKE here is Revolutionary. Just can't bet him at those odds...but I do think he is the best horse in the race.

But yes, we do see this a bit differently, as you don't seem to like Itsmyluckyday much at all...

[dartman51]

I don't care who wins, as long as it's one of these:

:16: :14: :19: :20: :3: :15:

I need one of these to complete my Oaks, Derby Double. :ThmbUp:

[Overlay]

My top four:

14 Verrazano
8 Goldencents
9 Overanalyze
3 Revolutionary

[Ted Craven]

Hey Ted...you did read where I wrote that the horse I LIKE here is Revolutionary. Just can't bet him at those odds...but I do think he is the best horse in the race.

But yes, we do see this a bit differently, as you don't seem to like Itsmyluckyday much at all...

Got it, and acknowledged re Revolutionary! 5-1 right now, I'd be surprised if it was worse than 7/2. That still leaves some juicy Exactas.

Good luck!

Ted

[DRIVEWAY]

Kentucky Derby picks for a sloppy track.

Win Bets
Rank#1 Oxbow-----------760
Rank#2 Lines Of Battle--745

Use in exotics
Rank#3 Orb--------------698
Rank#4 Overanalyze----689

Good Luck

[ManU918]

:15: Charming Kitten for me...

[Speed Figure]

Here's how my program has the derby. I don't know about it now with the off track.

[raybo]

The Derby - Going with a small super only, because there is so much uncertainty due to the off track and 19 runners in the slop, all 3 yos of course. Only a couple have ever run in the slop so I'm ignoring the slop completely.

My $1 super ticket:
Verrazano / Goldencents, Revolutionary, Orb / same 3 plus Normandy Invasion / same 4 plus Lines of Battle

[Turf Sonic]

boxed with Lines of Battle and Vyjack (long shots who are good as any in this mediocre field). Saver plays with Goldencents and Normandy Invasion top and bottom of those four. Made one big box with the three fastest horses, Goldencents, Verrazano and Itsmyluckyday. They all run similarly so that could be problematic or genius!

[raybo]

Got my birthday present on for luck. My better half ordered me an "AllData" t-shirt and just gave it to me. :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

Here's my HTR readout fwiw....I am ignoring some of it! Using Dave's suggestion of 1/2 the field +1 as contenders.

My picks
:16: Orb
:5: Normandy Invasion
:3: Revolution
:6: My Lute
:10: Palace Malice

$2 Tri - $120
$3 exacta box - $60

Win and place bets as PT nears.....

[lamboguy]

i have no problem with his plays, but its going to be muddy there and REVOLUTIONARY should benefit the most from the mud. he was one of the horses i liked anyway. i was back and forth with ITSMYLUCKYDAY and REVOLUTIONARY for a decent show bet. the mud made up my mind. this is the only type of a race where you can unload in the show pool and get paid up to $6 for a horse this good. if REVOLUTIONARY gets a trip where he doesn't get bounced around, he is the most likely horse to finish 1-2-3. i love the way Pleasa has trained ITSMYLUCKY day even though i can't figure out his work pattern, he is a great conditioner and doesn't take a back seat to anyone. Todd Pletcher is in a league of his own, he puts everyone else in the back of the bus. his horses have all trained great and look better on the track than they ever have.

good luckthank you Calvin for a great ride, he earned his entry into the Preakness Stakes and i think he will be real tough there

REVOLUTIONARY runs 3rd $5.40 return for the best horse on paper going into the race.

[raybo]

Congrats to Shug, and all that had money on Orb!!

[lamboguy]

Congrats to Shug, and all that had money on Orb!!truly a great man. everyone is happy to see him win

[CincyHorseplayer]

Here's my HTR readout fwiw....I am ignoring some of it! Using Dave's suggestion of 1/2 the field +1 as contenders.

My picks
:16: Orb
:5: Normandy Invasion
:3: Revolution
:6: My Lute
:10: Palace Malice

$2 Tri - $120
$3 exacta box - $60

Win and place bets as PT nears.....

We were on the same horses Tom.I got blown out of the exacta too,but had the big win bet on Orb.I put a smaller win bet on Normandy.I thought it was there at the 16th pole damnit!!

[NJ Stinks]

I don't care who wins, as long as it's one of these:

:16: :14: :19: :20: :3: :15:

I need one of these to complete my Oaks, Derby Double. :ThmbUp:

Great hit, Dartman! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[PhantomOnTour]

To borrow a Texas hold 'em term, i got in good with my main duo of Oxbow and Revolutionary.
Man, Oxbow got the dream trip i imagined and just couldn't finish the deal. Thought he had a real shot turning for home. I will give him a LONG look in the preakness if Lukas sends him. He was the only pace player left at the end today. The race basically flipped.

[dartman51]

Great hit, Dartman! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Thanks NJ, first one(Oaks/Derby DD)I've hit since 2006, so it felt good. :)

[PaceAdvantage]

I guess we can chalk this thread up in the "Never" column... :lol: :lol:

[thaskalos]

I guess we can chalk this thread up in the "Never" column... :lol: :lol:

I disagree.

Individual races mean nothing...and your long-term track record as a race prognosticator is admirable.

I, for one, look forward to reading your thoughts on the premier races -- even if I disagree with your conclusions -- and I'm sure that many others here enjoy your analysis as well. :ThmbUp:

[raybo]

I disagree.

Individual races mean nothing...and your long-term track record as a race prognosticator is admirable.

I, for one, look forward to reading your thoughts on the premier races -- even if I disagree with your conclusions -- and I'm sure that many others here enjoy your analysis as well. :ThmbUp:

I agree, even if my analysis doesn't jive with Mike's. His analysis always has merit, especially considering the difficulty involved in being "correct" on the Derby winners. I'm not proud, and will voice my opinions, even when they turn out to be wrong, they weren't wrong to me, before the fact, and that's what counts.

So, keep on keepin on Mike!