View Full Version : Official Kentucky Derby Analysis

05-04-2013, 12:18 PM
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/12.jpg Itsmyluckyday
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/3.jpg Revolutionary
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/6.jpg Mylute
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/9.jpg Overanalyze

Andy Beyer made an excellent point in his Derby column (http://www.drf.com/news/andrew-beyer-goldencents-stands-out-kentucky-derby-field) when he stated how the new points system has changed the look of this year's Derby renewal compared to recent history. Gone are the "fast, faint-hearted colts" who "used to get into the field because of the money they had earned in sprints."

He soundly reasoned that this revision would be advantageous for his selection, Goldencents, to get a much easier trip than he did when he won the Santa Anita Derby. No debate there. This Derby field is certainly lacking when it comes to "E" horses. In fact, it can be argued that Goldencents is the lone E horse in the race...Verrazano, Falling Sky and Giant Finish are more EP types, being the other three in the race who will vie for the front end early.

But where I differ with Beyer is in the fact that I have absolutely no faith in Goldencents' ability to get the mile and a quarter distance later this afternoon. I harbor similar thoughts about Verrazano.

Falling Sky and Giant Finish simply can't win, period.

So that leaves me with a horse who will also benefit from a predictably less-pressured early pace...a horse who can sit back and lead the second wave of horses who park themselves right behind the early speedsters...and a horse who will be the right price --> Itsmyluckyday.

A winner of five of ten lifetime and eight of ten in the money, Itsmyluckyday always runs his race, and that's because he's the type of versatile runner you want in the Derby. A horse with enough speed to stay out of trouble and also pounce when the early types starts to come back to the pack.

I must admit that I took a page out of 46zilzal's (you remember him, don't you?) playbook when it came to this year's Derby. I used Ted Craven's RDSS software to analyze this race, focusing in on Total Energy and %Med like 46zilzal used to preach all the time. The horses I've listed above seem, at least to me and my way of looking at it, to fall into that Sartin model of horses who thrive in this race. I plan to ask ol' zilly to come back to the board if the above horses should run well later this afternoon. Hell, I might just ask him back even if they don't. There's a good chance he'll tell me to go to hell, but it's worth a shot, especially if I should cash! http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/smilies/47.gif

I really wanted to put Revolutionary on top, but it seems his price is going to be too short, which is a shame, because I really like this horse and think he's the one to beat. And with Mylute in my top four, you have probably gotten the sense that I value the Louisiana Derby quite a bit this year. Reading other's comments on that race on the board, perhaps I value it a little too much. We shall see.

Overanalyze is a horse you should not leave off your tickets. The only reason I don't have him higher is I didn't particularly like the fact that he has a relatively slow F3 number in his last race, the Arkansas Derby. Speed figure wise, he also hasn't seemed to improve much beyond his two-year-old form. With all that said though, I think he will be a threat in the end, especially for minor awards.

Good luck to all, and I hope it's my lucky day as well!