Thoughts on Oxbow

[cordep17]

Oxbow, at 30-1 on the morning line, has proven time and time again that he can promise a top level effort. In each of his races, besides the cashcall, he has finished strongly. In the cashcall, he was hung wide the whole time in a 4 horse speed dual. Two faded, and the horse on the rail finished second. He was going from a Maiden 50k to a G1, but still held on for fourth. Since then, he has shown improvement in every race he is entered. It seems that the Arkansas is missinterpretted.
The Arkansas taught us a few things. Firstly, Oxbow doesn't like dirt in his face. In previous races, he has wide trips with no kickback. When he got in behind horses, he fell to the back of the pack. Secondly, he has a good chance of getting the distance of a 1 1/4 mile race. He finished strongly in the Arkansas, even though he probably wasn't sent out to deliver a maximum effort.
He can rate on the outside, but the inside post could be his downfall. He doesn't break exceptionally well, and he could be shuffled back early with a lot of kickback.

[LAP_520]

On the Kentucky Oaks TV coverage today......

Commentator returned to Jockey Gary Stevens stated he took Oxbow back in his last race to see how he would respond. He got his answer... Oxbow was MAD at him for doing that.

Thinking..... with that being said, OXBOW will be in full flight out of the starting gate... but how much energy will that take out of him...... (?)

[salty]

The decision on oxbow is killing me, and now today he is suddenly basically in the 1 hole. I don't know if having room on the inside is going to help or hurt his chances, but i do feel good that he will be able to get a good spot upfront with a good break. Arkansas Derby, maybe was more of a test race to see how he does when put behind horses, and I think it was successful in that he was running all the way to the wire even after having nowhere to go in the turn. I mean it is logical to think that maybe they wanted to try some different tactics so there was an idea on what they could do if given one of the way outside posts. Maybe he is adjusted to the distance in this race now too. Probably my pick for the derby.

[lamboguy]

i would say that my thoughts on OXBOW are pretty strong, he has no chance

[CincyHorseplayer]

With a 105 pace figure he'll be right in the mix.He doesn't close as fast as the other E/P types but he has sire influenced stamina to keep on running.My thought is I don't think that he will.Your call though brother.

[cordep17]

The decision on oxbow is killing me, and now today he is suddenly basically in the 1 hole. I don't know if having room on the inside is going to help or hurt his chances, but i do feel good that he will be able to get a good spot upfront with a good break. Arkansas Derby, maybe was more of a test race to see how he does when put behind horses, and I think it was successful in that he was running all the way to the wire even after having nowhere to go in the turn. I mean it is logical to think that maybe they wanted to try some different tactics so there was an idea on what they could do if given one of the way outside posts. Maybe he is adjusted to the distance in this race now too. Probably my pick for the derby.

I think an excellent break is too much to ask. He'll break OK, but with trueE horses, he'll beabout five back at the 1st turn. If he is forsure being sent to the front, he'll need to break we'll, then excellerate for 10 seconds. the new distance and the unnatural true speed he will need to show is too much to ask, IMO.