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View Full Version : Thoughts on Black Onyx


cordep17
05-02-2013, 10:16 PM
He is 50-1 on the Morning Line, but he actually isn't bad.
He hasn't run a 100 figure yet, but his last two outs have been vs. increasingly better opponents, and he still managed a 93 and a 96. That 96 was achieved in the Spiral, where he had to deal with a wide trip. Kelly Breen doesn't do the best with layoff horses, so it is acceptable that he finished 4th in an OC75k/n1x to kick off his 3 year old career. Although it looks like he is peaking at the right time, it seems he has struggled on the dirt.
Both of his maiden efforts came out of races that were moved from the turf to the dirt, so he essentially was racing turf horses on dirt. Still, he lost his first by 6 lengths and only won his second by 2. He faced 10 in his first OC75k/n1x on thedirt, and he finished a distant fourth. The very game race that he ran on turf obviously perked him up, which he followed up with his latest win on the all weather track.
So, what do you guys think? Has he proven himself mediocre on the dirt? Was he just not as in form at the start of his 3 year old campaign? If the spiral would have been on dirt, would he still have delivered a top performance?

Will Power
05-03-2013, 02:12 AM
I love your enthusiasm!

You remind me of Ken Rudulph touting Giacomo on TVG in 2005 (has it really been that long?) I made the HUGE mistake of changing channels to the bigger network, thinking they would have "better" information.

I would be a fool to try to "talk you off" this one.

The 3 race speed rating pattern is very positive.

Naysayers will point to the 1 hole.

Son of Rock Hard Ten may be "rollin' late."

Since Breen, could be any kind.

PaceAdvantage
05-03-2013, 02:31 AM
He'll probably finish in the top half of the field...but I don't see much to warrant him being a top 3 or 4 horse...even given his best run...

precocity
05-03-2013, 08:25 AM
extreme toss.

BlueChip@DRF
05-03-2013, 09:07 AM
He would be more suited for The Belmont.

Robert Fischer
05-03-2013, 09:36 AM
He drew the 1 hole. I actually think he will handle getting over next to the rail, and being in close quarters better than most, but he isn't a speed horse and he figures to be placed right in the the worst of the traffic and maybe some kickback.

Valuist
05-03-2013, 09:49 AM
Being overmatched and drawing the dreaded 1 hole is no way to go through life. No chance to even hit the board.

BlueChip@DRF
05-03-2013, 09:52 AM
He drew the 1 hole. I actually think he will handle getting over next to the rail, and being in close quarters better than most, but he isn't a speed horse and he figures to be placed right in the the worst of the traffic and maybe some kickback.

That's the thing. You notice in his 3 wins there is no dirt on him (turf at GP, 3-wide at Aqueduct, 5-wide at Turfway). So he races wide to avoid dirt, even at the cost of losing ground. If you look at his losses, there is dirt on him. And it's supposed to rain Saturday? Oh boy....

Will Power
05-03-2013, 12:38 PM
We'll never know.

Valuist
05-03-2013, 01:03 PM
The connections were overcome by a bout of sanity. Rare during Derby time.

BlueChip@DRF
05-03-2013, 01:35 PM
This thread is now moot.