When was the last time.... (Another ORB thread)

[Smarty Cide]

When was the last time almost everyone interviewed picked the same horse? I mean just about everyone interviewed on TVG is picking ORB.

Is this horse that much better then everyone? is he going to go off 3-1? Im a Revolutionary guy but I just cant remember the last time everyone was on 1 horse... Well now thinking about it the only other time I can remember was Big Brown. And he won...

[Rex Phinney]

I loved this horse when I thought Verrazano was going to be the favorite. And a few weeks back I thought I could anywhere from 10-1 to 6-1 on Orb.

That being said I just don't know how much I like him at 3-1 or 7-2.

If Verrazano proves to be able to handle the traffic and get the distance he will bury Orb in a stretch duel IMO. Verrazano speed and power wise is a beast.

So long as all the other 19 on the track get tired Orb is the winner, a great strategy at a price, but to play a favorite I like to know he will not only outlast the others but out run them too.

[Robert Fischer]

I thought/think Verrazano should be the favorite, but Orb is the real deal.

His FOY was deceptive, because that race had such a hot pace that even though Orb ran very respectable fractions, some questioned his tactical speed. He still benefited from the pace melting down in that race.

In the Florida Derby it was a speed favoring race. That makes his nice move even more impressive. On the flipside he didn't have much competition. Itsmyluckyday made an early move, and did not run his 'A' race. Shanghai Bobby failed to fire. But Orb did demolish the field if if you count the setup, and his gallop out. He looks like a polished racehorse at this point.

This is a good class, and a good Derby field. Verrazano looks the most talented. Verrazano, Orb and Goldencents are all capable of grade I efforts. Then there's another handful of contenders like Normandy Invasion, Vyjack, Overanalyze, Revolutionary.

[chadk66]

The race Java's War ran in the blue grass makes me believe he's capable of winning the derby also.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I thought/think Verrazano should be the favorite, but Orb is the real deal.

His FOY was deceptive, because that race had such a hot pace that even though Orb ran very respectable fractions, some questioned his tactical speed. He still benefited from the pace melting down in that race.

In the Florida Derby it was a speed favoring race. That makes his nice move even more impressive. On the flipside he didn't have much competition. Itsmyluckyday made an early move, and did not run his 'A' race. Shanghai Bobby failed to fire. But Orb did demolish the field if if you count the setup, and his gallop out. He looks like a polished racehorse at this point.

This is a good class, and a good Derby field. Verrazano looks the most talented. Verrazano, Orb and Goldencents are all capable of grade I efforts. Then there's another handful of contenders like Normandy Invasion, Vyjack, Overanalyze, Revolutionary.

Good stuff Robert.Although I do think the the FOY the race itself was deceptive.At 122 it had the fastest pace figure of all the preps to Goldcents' 114.Orb being able to put up a 111 pace shows that he does have the speed to track a fast pace,he's not a plodder.

Verrazano,when I compare to horses of similar running style Goldcents and Luckyday are faster than him early,and offpace horses are faster than him late.It really depends on where he will be and if it will work?Can he rate 4-5 off the pace?If not he might get toasted up front.The other two can go 114 and 107,in V's best race he went 100 at the pacecall.

The thing I agree wholeheartedly with is that this is a very contentious race.I might forego and in race bet and catch it across.

[Will Power]

Antepost looks to average around 4:1

http://www.easyodds.com/sports-betting/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/future-races/outright/kentucky-derby.html

This sounds reasonable to me.