"It has been, is still and will always be about who gets the distance"

[OCF]

I pulled that quote from Post #12 (thanks Bubba X) of the following thread about the 2009 Kentucky Derby, the one won by Mine That Bird:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=57350&page=1&pp=15

If the quote is true it doesn't make picking the winner of the KD easy, but it would seem to simplify that task quite a bit.

Do you agree or disagree with the quote? I'll admit to not knowing enough to have an informed opinion.

[Dan Montilion]

They can all get the distance. It just takes some longer than the others.

[takeout]

They can all get the distance. It just takes some longer than the others.That's not a bad quote either. :D

[JackS]

Returning from a layoff, a horse is entered to run a mile.
early speed before a fade into oblivion.
Next race, entered to run 1 1/16 with a simular outcome.
Next race, entered to run 1 1/8. Speed and a terrible fade.
Todays race entered to run 1 1/4 the horse wires the field.
This was several years ago and I was fortunate enough to take the shot because of the very odd reason a respected trainer would actually do this.
To this day, I pay little attention with no concern for sprinters trying a route for the first time.

[Overlay]

They can all get the distance. It just takes some longer than the others.
Reminds me of an old Dewar's profile ad on Groucho Marx where he was recalling his brothers, and mentioned that Harpo had bet on a horse that had crossed the finish line first in the 1942 Kentucky Derby. (Unfortunately. the horse had started in the 1941 Derby.)(Cue eyebrows, and rimshot sound effect.)

[OCF]

Returning from a layoff, a horse is entered to run a mile.
early speed before a fade into oblivion.
Next race, entered to run 1 1/16 with a simular outcome.
Next race, entered to run 1 1/8. Speed and a terrible fade.
Todays race entered to run 1 1/4 the horse wires the field.
This was several years ago and I was fortunate enough to take the shot because of the very odd reason a respected trainer would actually do this.
To this day, I pay little attention with no concern for sprinters trying a route for the first time.

I hope you got a good price!

Good example of a well-applied angle, but the application to the KD might be limited. I think a lot of KD trainers and owners, if you could get them to be honest, would have to admit the real reason they're in the race is for the prestige and they're hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.

In other words, its not the end of a well-executed plan, it's fulfilling a dream.

[Robert Fischer]

Do you agree or disagree with the quote? I'll admit to not knowing enough to have an informed opinion.

It's something that where you hope one of the public choices will have legitimate distance concerns.

It's pretty tough to eliminate the top choices this year.

A couple of horses like Palace Malice and Itsmyluckyday seem to be horses who may do better in the King's Bishop(contested at 7 furlongs) than the Kentucky Derby.

Mylute is weird because he likes distance and pace, but he has also struggled at times when put to task in the stretch.

Falling Sky is a sprinter, but he's 50-1, so there's no value in this angle...

Goldencents, the 3rd public choice, looked vulnerable after the San Felipe, but he came back and erased all doubts in the Santa Anita Derby.

Verrazano is somewhat interesting because he seems to be more brilliant from 7f - a mile 1/16th, than the longer routes, but he hasn't shown any distance limitations. You will see some handicappers taking a shot at eliminating Verrazano with the hope that he doesn't get the distance.

[pondman]

Goldencents, the 3rd public choice, looked vulnerable after the San Felipe, but he came back and erased all doubts in the Santa Anita Derby. .

:8: Goldencentss- This group of riders will put him where he doesn't want-- they'll wedge him into the rail. This horse can't be any where near the rail, or he quits. He's got the mark on him. We will see how his rider responds. I don't think krigger is versatile enough to do anything else, but ride the lane, and let horses force him inside.

:12: Itsmyluckyday will stalk the lead and won't move until the stretch. He can go inside early and swing wide late. He should be able to light these pokes up. Should have a better trip this time with something to run at. This horse is very fast.

[PaceAdvantage]

Goldencents is an easy toss for me...don't think he can get the distance and his overall numbers are weak IMO....

[rastajenk]

But's he got Rick Pitino on his side. I know that's beyond the bounds of traditional handicapping, but it can't be ignored. :p


Scratch that...just read in another thread that Pitino's horse is Beyer's pick. :(

[burnsy]

Goldencents is an easy toss for me...don't think he can get the distance and his overall numbers are weak IMO....

I sort of agree, but horses like this can hit the board. I think he may be the speed of the speed and will take others out. Thats the thing about a horse like this.....he may not make it, but he will make some others miserable running this way and they won't make it either while hes holding on for a piece. Hes the only one to throw down "pace" and carry it 9 furlongs....that makes him dangerous whether he makes it or not, it will be the downfall of others that chase him.

[acorn54]

i remember watching one of mike pizzolla's videos on making a decision on who to bet in a race. it was profound to me. he had a race that was set up perfectly for a early speed horse, and one of the horses had half his races as an s or p type run style and the other half as an e or ep run style. mr pizzolla said he may or may not run on the front end. he looked at the tote board and he said "at 20-1 the horse going to run on the front end". that is the essence of decision making in horseracing to me.
that's my take on goldenscents in the derby. you all may be right about his lack of chances in winning but if i get the right price i'll bet him.

[precocity]

Goldencents is an easy toss for me...don't think he can get the distance and his overall numbers are weak IMO....
pretty funny PA but that's your opinion, never seen a jockey choke the crap out of a horse from the back stretch to the top of the stretch and still kicked out and whooped flashback and super99 and galloped out like look at me. I think he is the bodi of the race.curious PA you kind of like those types of colts you had Shackleford in 2011 preakness and I thought he was a complete toss?

[pandy]

Finding a horse that was bred for the distance and looked like a stamina horse (long stride, sustained running style) used to be a big key but that's one of many things that has changed as horses with speed pedigrees and shorter strides have won the Derby. Smarty Jones looked like a sprinter/miler with his compact stride and speed pedigree. Mine That Bird had a dosage of 4.33 and also looked like a speed horse prior to the Derby but then they took him back off the pace and suddenly he was a stamina horse.

Bottom line is, you have to respect the fastest horses regardless of their pedigree. Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday are two of the fastest horses but both are bred for speed and not stamina. Do you throw them out?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Bottom line is, you have to respect the fastest horses regardless of their pedigree. Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday are two of the fastest horses but both are bred for speed and not stamina. Do you throw them out?

With the way they are bred today, it's all in relation to the field they are up against. Beyer did have a point in his article about why Goldencents was his pick.

"The unanswered question about Goldencents is whether he can carry his speed 1 1/4 miles. Even trainer Doug O’Neill has harbored some doubts about his stamina. But the colt’s speed is going to be an advantage Saturday, for the Derby is undergoing a significant change that many fans and bettors haven’t recognized yet.

Over the years, the field at Churchill Downs has regularly been populated by sprinters who set such a fast early pace that they compromise the chances of every horse racing near the lead. As a result, the Derby has been a race for stretch runners. Since 2000, six winners have rallied from 10th place or farther back, while only one front-runner, War Emblem, won during that period.

Churchill Downs this year revised the rules that determine which horses get into the Derby field if more than 20 are entered. It scrapped graded purse winnings as the criterion and instituted a point system based on horses’ performance in major prep races.

Fast, faint-hearted colts used to get into the field because of the money they had earned in sprints. Now, these animals don’t qualify, and they are absent from Saturday’s field. Under such circumstances, the Derby pace ought to be slower, horses racing near the lead won’t be enervated, and stretch runners will have more difficulty catching them."

[Robert Fischer]

HqdItLlti6c
^ Interesting race to re-watch with rain in the forecast. (race starts 2:10 if you wish to skip the gate)

Who can pull off a "Lion Heart" ?

Who can play the role of "the undefeated Smarty Jones" ?

Goldencents and Verrazano ??

[lamboguy]

what a great race caller Tom Durkin is

[Capper Al]

Goldencents is an easy toss for me...don't think he can get the distance and his overall numbers are weak IMO....

I'm sticking my neck out on Goldencents. He isn't my software's top pick, but he's been competing in all graded races after breaking his maiden.

[JackS]

My key will be IMLD. My figures and the bump in the road with his last race should guarantee that his odds will be more than fair. The fact that he lost to Orb in his last will be a plus on the tote.

[PaceAdvantage]

Beyer is of course correct on his pace assessment of this year's Derby. There is none of that cheap speed present...it is a stark contrast and will make this year's renewal interesting to watch from that perspective alone.

With that said, I still think "Goldi" has no chance...

[CincyHorseplayer]

Beyer is of course correct on his pace assessment of this year's Derby. There is none of that cheap speed present...it is a stark contrast and will make this year's renewal interesting to watch from that perspective alone.

With that said, I still think "Goldi" has no chance...

People are making the comparison to Bodemeister but Bode was bred for distance on both sides and Goldi is bred for 8.5 furlongs on both sides.And of all the speed horses he might have the best pace figure but the worst late pace of that group.I think he'll be there long enough to burn up whoever gets near him.

[pondman]

pretty funny PA but that's your opinion, never seen a jockey choke the crap out of a horse from the back stretch to the top of the stretch and still kicked out and whooped flashback and super99?

All lane riding-- by a C level Golden Gate Jockey. Wait until he needs to do an Alysheba against these rodeo jockeys.

Go watch the tapes for Revolutionary! That horse controls the race-- way outside and picks it up inside. Gives whatever he needs to win.

[precocity]

All lane riding-- by a C level Golden Gate Jockey. Wait until he needs to do an Alysheba against these rodeo jockeys.

Go watch the tapes for Revolutionary! That horse controls the race-- way outside and picks it up inside. Gives whatever he needs to win.
yep will see tomorrow pondy :D

[precocity]

All lane riding-- by a C level Golden Gate Jockey. Wait until he needs to do an Alysheba against these rodeo jockeys.

Go watch the tapes for Revolutionary! That horse controls the race-- way outside and picks it up inside. Gives whatever he needs to win.
hey pondi I bet pick 6, 5 4 3 supers and tris you don't know who I am going across the Bord with so stick to your daily double why I bet trillions!!! :cool:
so take a seat or stop kissing azz :D boooorrrrraillllllllll :lol: