rain for the derby.

[precocity]

and could end up sloppy by derby time? will see but if that's the case the field will be looking at goldencents azz to the wire! :rolleyes:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/77976/rain-enters-forecast-for-kentucky-derby-day

[Robert Fischer]

If it does get a little bit sloppy, that could help Vyjack a little.

Although drawn wide in post #20, he may take less kickback, and he did have that one romp in the slop vs statebreds @ Aqueduct.

[precocity]

Vyjack is in my exotics :cool:

[lamboguy]

there is nothing wrong with VYJACK. the winner of the Kentucky Derby figures to come out of the Wood or Florida Derby.

[tucker6]

The forecast attm is for general showery weather, so I don't expect mud per se. I think there's a chance we could eek out a good surface condition for late afternoon.

From NWS Louisville:

Most of the latest guidance continues to trend towards a wetter
solution for this weekend. As moisture (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=moisture) streams into the system rain
showers will increase Friday night, especially across southwestern
portions of the forecast area. These showers will spread into
southern Indiana and most of central Kentucky through the morning
hours Saturday and continue through the afternoon. Showers are
likely (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=likely) across most of the area Saturday, and have increased pops (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=pops) to
reflect this. Rain showers continue to look likely (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=likely) across the entire
region Saturday night, with the best chances for rain on Sunday
across the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. Though the weekend is
looking increasingly wet, sounding (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=sounding) show no instability (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=instability) with this
system, so thunderstorms are not likely (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=likely). Temperatures through the
weekend will be cool. Highs Saturday and Sunday will range from the
lower to mid 60s with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

[lamboguy]

if anyone has an over under on the attendance, bet the under.

i met a guy on a plain coming home from Cincy who also went to the derby, he told me he won lots of money on the derby. that was the year that GIACOMO won it. i said to the guy that was a great pick on that horse, he said no i bet the attendance over. that's how i know they have lines on that stuff.

[Greyfox]

i met a guy on a plain coming home from Cincy .

If he was on horseback he might have been a Blackfoot or Pawnee. I hope you were on horseback too.:rolleyes:

[Smarty Cide]

there is nothing wrong with VYJACK. the winner of the Kentucky Derby figures to come out of the Wood or Florida Derby.



does it? no horse from the wood has finished in the money since 2003

[Smarty Cide]

guess it time to start thinking rain and how that changes things

[tucker6]

guess it time to start thinking rain and how that changes things
From NWS Louisville:

While the precipitation will generally be moderate in nature (little to no
thunder (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=thunder) expected), the long duration of the rainfall (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=rainfall) and the
expected training of the showers will produce rainfall (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=rainfall) amounts of 1
to 2 inches Friday night through Sunday.

:ThmbDown:

[PaceAdvantage]

1 to 2 inches is a lot of rain...

[lamboguy]

does it? no horse from the wood has finished in the money since 2003i happen to be pretty familiar with the 2003 race.

i am going to have to change my opinion on VYJACK. i can't play him, that horse did not train like a normal Rudy horse trains.

the horse that i am having a problem with is ITSMYLUCKYDAY. he has only been average in the morning, but Pleasa does crazy things with his horses and this won't be the first time that he will fool me. his horse's works are not bad enough to throw him out of the equation.

so far i have this race narrowed down in half. the problem is that i have all the same horses as everyone else. the only crazy horse that i give some type of a chance to is the horse on the rail, and rail is probably going to be worse than ever due to the weather.

[Quesmark]

1 to 2 inches is a lot of rain...
Depends on the time frame of when it falls...

[tucker6]

Depends on the time frame of when it falls...
new forecast for 1 inch of rain starting Saturday morning and ending by Saturday evening. From NWS Louisville:

Saturday, by all accounts, will be cloudy and wet across the region
as the surface frontal boundary occludes across the region. Band of
showers over western Kentucky is expected to gradually spread
eastward across the central part of the state throughout the day.
The rain will generally be light to moderate. Instability (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=Instability) is
virtually not existent so not expecting much in the way of thunder (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=thunder).
However, with the good moisture (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=moisture) fetch (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=fetch) off the SW Atlantic, training
of rain showers looks increasingly likely (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=likely) which could lay down
around an inch of rain in some spots by Saturday evening. The
clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures down on Saturday
with highs only warming into the upper 50s.


Edit to add that the Oaks looks okay today.

[pandy]

This track drys out quick so it's hard to guess what the track will be like late in the day but I expect a sealed sloppy track to start the card and that usually favors speed.

[Valuist]

I have to think Pletcher is hoping for slop. I think both Verrazano and Revolutionary would welcome an off track. Vyjack and Itsmyluckyday is another who will benefit.

[redeye007]

On the dam side of his pedigree, :13: Falling Sky 50-1 may have a shot if the track is muddy. His pedigree also indicates he should be able to handle the distance. he would certainly light up the tote board at boxcars. :eek: