KY Oaks

[Valuist]

While I thought Battaglia did a pretty good job on the m/l for the Derby, he messed up the Oaks bad. According to his morning line, there will be very little difference between Dreaming of Julia, Beholder, Unlimited Budget, Midnight Lucky and Close Hatches. I think he's dead wrong. IMO, this is a more realistic Oaks betting line:

1 Silsita 30-1
2 Midnight Lucky 7-2
3 Beholder 6-1
4 Unlimited Budget 7-1
5 Seaneen Girl 25-1
6 Princess of Sylmar 15-1
7 Pure Fun 15-1
8 Dreaming of Julia 7-5
9 Rose to Gold 12-1
11 Close Hatches 15-1

[bks]

Agree with this. Dreaming of Julia might be 3-1 in the Derby. I'll be shocked if she's above 7-5.

[RXB]

Dreaming of Julia will be the clear favourite, no doubt.

Hype is building on Midnight Lucky. I don't doubt that she's working well as reported, but she'll be taking a huge step up in both class and pace. Cruising along easily behind a maiden-breaker at a moderate clip in an ungraded race is going to be awfully different from chasing Beholder for 7f+, not to mention she'll likely be surrounded by other legit G1/G2 horses in what figures to be a fairly quick and contested affair. And the bottom side of her pedigree is rather speed-oriented. A lot to overcome for a horse that might be the second favourite.

[PhantomOnTour]

People are talking about how great and talented and competitive this years' Oaks is...well, two outta three ain't bad, cuz if Julia brings it she may "Rachel" this field and make it non competitive.

But i'm still betting Unlimited Budget on top !

[redshift1]

DOJ a bet against at low odds, after all she's proven vulnerable before.

My choices in order of preference:

Midnight Lucky 5/2
Unlimited Budget 3-1
Close Hatches 6-1

Longshot Pure Fun. With so many early-speed horses just maybe she atones for the Lexington.



.

[RXB]

DOJ a bet against at low odds, after all she's proven vulnerable before.

My choices in order of preference:

Midnight Lucky 5/2
Unlimited Budget 3-1
Close Hatches 6-1


Spectacular Bid was vulnerable during his first four races (lost twice). Then he went to Atlantic City, unleashed one of the most magnificent 2YO performances of all time, and wasn't particularly vulnerable thereafter (23 of 25).

Dreaming of Julia's Gulfstream Oaks was like Bid's breakout race, in another league from what any of her competitors have produced at similar distances. Are you seriously rating her worse than third?

[depalma113]

11 Close Hatches 15-1

Close Hatches at 15-1? I think I would literally mortgage my house to get more money to bet her at that price.

[Valuist]

Close Hatches at 15-1? I think I would literally mortgage my house to get more money to bet her at that price.

She rode a rail bias and cruised on a soft pace to win. Couldn't have gotten a better trip. Dreaming of Julia can bounce badly and still win. If not for the hype on Midnight Lucky, DoJ would probably be 4-5, maybe 1-1.

Lets not forget, she ran the same distance on the same day as Orb. And she was TWO full seconds faster. And he could end up as the favorite on Saturday.

[redshift1]

Spectacular Bid was vulnerable during his first four races (lost twice). Then he went to Atlantic City, unleashed one of the most magnificent 2YO performances of all time, and wasn't particularly vulnerable thereafter (23 of 25).

Dreaming of Julia's Gulfstream Oaks was like Bid's breakout race, in another league from what any of her competitors have produced at similar distances. Are you seriously rating her worse than third?

DOJ getting a lot of traction out of the 114 Beyer, as spectacular as it was I would need to see a repeat to be a believer. Tomorrow is the best chance to beat her, a loaded field at 1 1/8th and several unbeaten graded stakes winners at generous odds why in the world even bet DOJ except in exotics.

.

[Leparoux]

She rode a rail bias and cruised on a soft pace to win. Couldn't have gotten a better trip. Dreaming of Julia can bounce badly and still win. If not for the hype on Midnight Lucky, DoJ would probably be 4-5, maybe 1-1.

Lets not forget, she ran the same distance on the same day as Orb. And she was TWO full seconds faster. And he could end up as the favorite on Saturday.
Completely disagree with that.

Unlimited Budget is a CLEAR second choice to me.

[RXB]

She rode a rail bias and cruised on a soft pace to win. Couldn't have gotten a better trip. Dreaming of Julia can bounce badly and still win. If not for the hype on Midnight Lucky, DoJ would probably be 4-5, maybe 1-1.

Lets not forget, she ran the same distance on the same day as Orb. And she was TWO full seconds faster. And he could end up as the favorite on Saturday.

Actually the pace wasn't soft for Close Hatches when she won the Gazelle. It was the Wood where they went slow early that day. Close Hatches' problem is that DoJ's adjusted times in the GP Oaks were just as fast early and then almost three seconds faster over the final 3f.

[peeptoad]

The Derby is clear as mud to me right now (and may be muddy, unfortunately). This race, on paper, seems a bit clearer:

ex box: :4: :5: :7: :8:
WPS: :7:

Subject to chnage, but I think Pure Fun might surprise in jhere: 1st time Lasix, with a possible pace advantage.
gl

[Valuist]

Actually the pace wasn't soft for Close Hatches when she won the Gazelle. It was the Wood where they went slow early that day. Close Hatches' problem is that DoJ's adjusted times in the GP Oaks were just as fast early and then almost three seconds faster over the final 3f.

You are correct; the pace wasn't bad for the Gazelle. Having said that, no way Close Hatches gets the lead from the outside tomorrow, but she has enough speed to get hung out wide.

[Valuist]

Completely disagree with that.

Unlimited Budget is a CLEAR second choice to me.

Midnight Lucky was been the hype horse all week. Whether its justified or not remains to be seen.

Just heard T-G gave Dreaming of Julia a negative 8. Biggest figure ever for a filly or mare. Bigger than Zenyatta, Bayakoa, Ladies Secret or Personal Ensign. Pretty impressive.

[RXB]

DOJ getting a lot of traction out of the 114 Beyer, as spectacular as it was I would need to see a repeat to be a believer. Tomorrow is the best chance to beat her, a loaded field at 1 1/8th and several unbeaten graded stakes winners at generous odds why in the world even bet DOJ except in exotics.


So because she's only got one race that is many lengths superior to her competitors, she should be higher than 6/1 in the odds? She has less chance to win than Close Hatches? Less than half the chance of Midnight Lucky or Unlimited Budget? I think you need to reassess.

[Leparoux]

Midnight Lucky was been the hype horse all week. Whether its justified or not remains to be seen.

Just heard T-G gave Dreaming of Julia a negative 8. Biggest figure ever for a filly or mare. Bigger than Zenyatta, Bayakoa, Ladies Secret or Personal Ensign. Pretty impressive.
Very impressive. The fact that she can tower over one of the deepest fields in Oaks history on paper is also impressive. Mott has been hyping Close Hatches a lot and Midnight Lucky is definitely the buzz horse. I really hope Unlimited Budget drifts a little off that 7-2 ML. Race sets up well for her too I think.

[Leparoux]

What odds do you all think Pure Fun will go off at? She's got some back class that makes her competitive, a BIG win over the track and very popular KY connections. She has trained well leading up to this. I want to use her somewhere but feel like she may be an underlay when it is all said and done.

[Valuist]

What odds do you all think Pure Fun will go off at? She's got some back class that makes her competitive, a BIG win over the track and very popular KY connections. She has trained well leading up to this. I want to use her somewhere but feel like she may be an underlay when it is all said and done.

I had her priced at 15-1. I think she could definitely hit the board if the pace is fast, and she's proven she likes the track. Her 3 year old races have been a bit disappointing, but maybe getting on Lasix is the key.

[RXB]

What odds do you all think Pure Fun will go off at? She's got some back class that makes her competitive, a BIG win over the track and very popular KY connections. She has trained well leading up to this. I want to use her somewhere but feel like she may be an underlay when it is all said and done.

She'll be big odds. I'm considering the possibility of playing Dreaming of Julia on top of her and Princess of Sylmar, hoping that one of those two can run late and get up for second at big odds if the front collapses. Although more likely I will pass the race.

The racing fan side of me is more interested in the Oaks this year than the Derby.

[depalma113]

She rode a rail bias and cruised on a soft pace to win.

They went :47 2/5 and she had the 1 on her inside hip for at least the first half mile. Close hatches was in the 2 path all the way around the track. Never moved to the rail until there was an eighth of a mile to go.

[Valuist]

They went :47 2/5 and she had the 1 on her inside hip for at least the first half mile. Close hatches was in the 2 path all the way around the track. Never moved to the rail until there was an eighth of a mile to go.

It won't matter. She has to improve quite a bit to win on Friday.

[redshift1]

So because she's only got one race that is many lengths superior to her competitors, she should be higher than 6/1 in the odds? She has less chance to win than Close Hatches? Less than half the chance of Midnight Lucky or Unlimited Budget? I think you need to reassess.

I listed my choices and probable odds, obviously DOJ will be favored on Friday.

Can she win sure, I'm taking a stand against her in a wide open race.

.

[Smarty Cide]

what time is oaks post time?

[_______]

I'm not a fan of historical trends in handicapping but Pletcher has brought a ton of good looking horses to Kentucky from Florida that didn't meet expectations. That and a pace meltdown is what gives me pause about backing DOJ.

If this were the "pick a winner on penalty of alien invasion" from another thread, she'd be my pick. But I'm using 3 other's in addition (none of whom I expect to be be involved in the scramble for the lead at first call) in horizontal's. And I won't actually bet her to win at what I expect her odds to be.

[overthehill]

I strongly disagree with your odds on beholder. I cant think of too many cases where a horse coming of a win in a grade I race that has won three grade I races goes off at 6-1. I will be surprised if DOJ is as low as 7/5 given the overall quality of the field. I suspect Beholder will be no more than a point off DOJs odds. and i think be cause of the post its worth betting against that DOJ. This is a very tough races with lots of the entrants looking classy and in pretty good form. would not surpise me to see a double digit odds winner

[Valuist]

While I thought Battaglia did a pretty good job on the m/l for the Derby, he messed up the Oaks bad. According to his morning line, there will be very little difference between Dreaming of Julia, Beholder, Unlimited Budget, Midnight Lucky and Close Hatches. I think he's dead wrong. IMO, this is a more realistic Oaks betting line:

1 Silsita 30-1
2 Midnight Lucky 7-2
3 Beholder 6-1
4 Unlimited Budget 7-1
5 Seaneen Girl 25-1
6 Princess of Sylmar 15-1
7 Pure Fun 15-1
8 Dreaming of Julia 7-5
9 Rose to Gold 12-1
11 Close Hatches 15-1

I think I'd make one revision: taking 4 pts from Midnight Lucky and giving it to Unlimited Budget. The new odds would be Midnight Lucky 9-2, Unlimited Budget 5-1.

[Valuist]

I strongly disagree with your odds on beholder. I cant think of too many cases where a horse coming of a win in a grade I race that has won three grade I races goes off at 6-1. I will be surprised if DOJ is as low as 7/5 given the overall quality of the field. I suspect Beholder will be no more than a point off DOJs odds. and i think be cause of the post its worth betting against that DOJ. This is a very tough races with lots of the entrants looking classy and in pretty good form. would not surpise me to see a double digit odds winner

Beholder got beat by Renee's Titan, who will be at least 15-1 in the Eight Belles today. She's not gonna get the cozy on a clear lead with a :47 pace today. She may not even get the lead.

[overthehill]

I change my mind about how strongly DOJ will be bet. I will say somewhere between 4/5 and 6/5 as i dont see how anyone else could possibly be the chalk. and the speed figures guys will all pound her.

[overthehill]

I change my mind about how strongly DOJ will be bet. I will say somewhere between 4/5 and 6/5 as i dont see how anyone else could possibly be the chalk. and the speed figures guys will all pound her.

[Valuist]

While I thought Battaglia did a pretty good job on the m/l for the Derby, he messed up the Oaks bad. According to his morning line, there will be very little difference between Dreaming of Julia, Beholder, Unlimited Budget, Midnight Lucky and Close Hatches. I think he's dead wrong. IMO, this is a more realistic Oaks betting line:

1 Silsita 30-1
2 Midnight Lucky 7-2
3 Beholder 6-1
4 Unlimited Budget 7-1
5 Seaneen Girl 25-1
6 Princess of Sylmar 15-1
7 Pure Fun 15-1
8 Dreaming of Julia 7-5
9 Rose to Gold 12-1
11 Close Hatches 15-1

Pretty close, except Close Hatches has been getting bet a bit more than I had anticipated. DoJ opened right at 7-5.

[raybo]

Grade order, 4/1 min odds:

:11: :3: :2: :8:

[Tom]

:3: :8: :2:

Baffert has no horse in the Derby, so this is his target.....I don't think ML can beat this field, but if the pace does melt down, she might get up.

Now, back to the HAT coverage~!

[Beachbabe]

:8: Dreaming Of Julia

You go girl !!!! :ThmbUp:

[depalma113]

:8: / :2: :7: :11: box
:8: :7: :11: / :12: :14: :16: Oaks Derby Double
:8: :7: :11: / :8: / :12: :14: :16: Oaks Woodford Derby pick three

[depalma113]

:8: :11: / :2: :8: :11: / :2: :3: :7: :8: :11: Trifecta
:8: :11: / :2: :7: :8: :11: exacta

[PhantomOnTour]

Cannot take the Baffert filly, esp at 3-1. I think Beholder/Rose To Gold/Close Hatches will set a pace that she cannot keep up with.

Top choice is Unlimited Budget...using Rose To Gold as longshot on top.
Only saver is a tri keying Julia over those two over many.

ex: 4-9 w 4-5-8-9
tri: 8 w 4-9 w 3-4-5-7-9
win: 4-9

[sam i am]

Tris
8/567/567

[raybo]

11 / 3,2,8 / 3,2,8,7 / 3,2,8,7,6

[Tom]

The more I look at Pure Fun, the more I think she can get it done on dirt at CD.
I'm adding a saver 1W3P wager on her at 17-1.

[iceknight]

DOJ / Unlimited Budget, CLose hatches

:8: / :4:, :11: Exacta

[salty]

Not placing a huge bet on this race but i can't resist the :3: at 9-1, seems like a crazy price. Multiple grade 1 winner, biggest money earner by far, and somehow is 5th choice. Has the world gone mad? :eek:

just a win/place bet on the :3:

+

oaks/derby double:

3 / 2,3,5,8,9,14,16

[CincyHorseplayer]

No bets.Although 3/2 is generous for this filly.Not bettin on her to win or to bounce.Good luck gang!

[salty]

crazy world

WOOOO so glad i put in a place bet

[CincyHorseplayer]

Amongst other reasons,this is why I refuse in principle to bet horses less than 2-1.You just never know!

Did anybody have it?I didn't see a 6 anywhere on this thread.

[raybo]

Man, the 6 messed everything up pretty good. The 11 and 8 way too far back.

[raybo]

Amongst other reasons,this is why I refuse in principle to bet horses less than 2-1.You just never know!

Did anybody have it?I didn't see a 6 anywhere on this thread.

I had her on the 4th row of my super but that's it. Didn't have the 4 at all.

[MNslappy]

Looked like Calvin took out about a third of the field at the start.

[raybo]

Pretty fast pace.

[PhantomOnTour]

Beholder is all class - she dug in to win the Juv Fillies and almost held them off today after going pretty fast early.

[raybo]

Beholder is all class - she dug in to win the Juv Fillies and almost held them off today after going pretty fast early.

I agree, had her ranked 2nd and she ran a heck of a race, maybe a bit fast for this distance early? Otherwise, she looked very good. Don't know what happened to the 11, was it involved in the fiasco at the break?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Beholder is all class - she dug in to win the Juv Fillies and almost held them off today after going pretty fast early.

Absolutely.I think if the best of this crop stays healthy,it retires all the older females!

[raybo]

In defense of the 6, she did have the top velocity in both FR2 and FR3, but I envisioned this race running a bit slower early.

[Robert Fischer]

Looked like Calvin took out about a third of the field at the start.

he took-out about a tenth of my bankroll too.

Good race, but DOJ was very likely the best, and she was certain to hit the board with a fair trip.

[PhantomOnTour]

Psssst...Delilah Jane in the finale...#3...8-1

[raybo]

Well, after watching the replay 3 times, it appears the 11 just didn't have it today, looked ok early, but just had no lick. Too bad, nice price.

[Valuist]

She was an overlay; had her at 15-1 and she went off over 30-1. No I didn't cash. She also was a bit wide on the Wood day at Aqu, where the inside was probably the best place to be.

[VeryOldMan]

Beholder is all class - she dug in to win the Juv Fillies and almost held them off today after going pretty fast early.


Yeah - couldn't believe a filly that had won 3 Grade 1 races was going off at her odds. Should have bet the courage of my conviction, other than my tiny PS bet on Beholder to hedge my bigger bet on DOJ. Gack - need to figure out this class handicapping and how to incorporate the results for tomorrow. There are handicappers on this board who are exponentially ahead of me - what's the verdict on this result?

[raybo]

She was an overlay; had her at 15-1 and she went off over 30-1. No I didn't cash. She also was a bit wide on the Wood day at Aqu, where the inside was probably the best place to be.

Yeah, she ran a heck of a race late. Just wish the pace had been a bit slower, things would have been a little more kosher.

[raybo]

Yeah - couldn't believe a filly that had won 3 Grade 1 races was going off at her odds. Should have bet the courage of my conviction, other than my tiny PS bet on Beholder to hedge my bigger bet on DOJ. Gack - need to figure out this class handicapping and how to incorporate the results for tomorrow. There are handicappers on this board who are exponentially ahead of me - what's the verdict on this result?

My verdict is, because of the faster than expected early pace, the 6 earned her win fair and square. Had the pace been slower, she doesn't get up. The 8 was unfortunate but at low odds I wouldn't have bet her anyway. Overall, a good race, won by the horse that became advantaged by the pace, rating highest in my program, in the last 2 fractions. Not a total surprise but the pace was a bit of a surprise IMO.

[Bennie]

Didn't bet the 6 in this race but did use her and 3 others in the Oaks/Derby double but am only live to ORB. Played a 4-6-7-8 with 16. My other doubles and pick-3 are dead

[PICSIX]

Boxed 456789 in ex & tri, also $5 Oaks/Derby Double with those to 8 Goldencents. Anyone seen will pays?

[Bennie]

Picsix Oaks/Derby double to Golden Cents is coming back $953 for $2

[RXB]

Yesterday morning I wrote that I was thinking :8: / :6: :7: but decided today that Pure Fun's form was too negative and so just played :8: / :6: Didn't put a dime to win on a 38/1 that I thought was somewhat live. Nice betting. :(

Beholder gave it a good try but I still think she would be much more of a demon at 7f-- the F&M Sprint distance in the Breeders Cup.

My early Beyer estimates for the dirt stakes:

La Troienne 101
Eight Belles 81
Alysheba 107
Oaks 96

[Shelby]

Picsix Oaks/Derby double to Golden Cents is coming back $953 for $2


I'd love to see the site that shows this, is there one?


edited to say I'm NOT questioning your figures, I'd just like to see the rest of the will pays. :)

[PICSIX]

Picsix Oaks/Derby double to Golden Cents is coming back $953 for $2

Thanks :ThmbUp:

[PICSIX]

I'd love to see the site that shows this, is there one?


edited to say I'm NOT questioning your figures, I'd just like to see the rest of the will pays. :)

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/78051/orb-favored-in-oaks-derby-double-pool?source=rss

[Bennie]

All $2 will-pays follow:

1. Black Onyx, scratched
2. Oxbow, $2,133
3. Revolutionary, $790
4. Golden Soul, $3,599
5. Normandy Invasion, $742
6. Mylute, $1,508
7. Giant Finish, $5,843
8. Goldencents, $953
9. Overanalyze, $1,246
10. Palace Malice, $1,547
11. Lines of Battle, $2,337
12. Itsmyluckyday, $983
13. Falling Sky, $6,241
14. Verrazano, $804
15. Charming Kitten, $3,617
16. Orb, $621
17. Will Take Charge, $3,088
18. Frac Daddy, $3,943
19. Java's War, $1,685
20. Vyjack, $1,313

[Shelby]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/78051/orb-favored-in-oaks-derby-double-pool?source=rss


Thank you!!!

[Shelby]

All $2 will-pays follow:

1. Black Onyx, scratched
2. Oxbow, $2,133
3. Revolutionary, $790
4. Golden Soul, $3,599
5. Normandy Invasion, $742
6. Mylute, $1,508
7. Giant Finish, $5,843
8. Goldencents, $953
9. Overanalyze, $1,246
10. Palace Malice, $1,547
11. Lines of Battle, $2,337
12. Itsmyluckyday, $983
13. Falling Sky, $6,241
14. Verrazano, $804
15. Charming Kitten, $3,617
16. Orb, $621
17. Will Take Charge, $3,088
18. Frac Daddy, $3,943
19. Java's War, $1,685
20. Vyjack, $1,313


And, thank you, too!!

[Valuist]

Rosario and Castellano may be better riders on an everyday basis, but if you owned a horse that was going to run in a big money race, could you do any better than Mike Smith?

[SharpCat]

Rosario and Castellano may be better riders on an everyday basis, but if you owned a horse that was going to run in a big money race, could you do any better than Mike Smith?


Not in my opinion.

[raybo]

Nope.

[RXB]

http://www.drf.com/news/hollywood-park-midnight-lucky-bound-acorn

"I'm going to shorten her up," said Baffert.

Good move; I think she's a sprinter/miler type.

[Valuist]

Rosario and Castellano may be better riders on an everyday basis, but if you owned a horse that was going to run in a big money race, could you do any better than Mike Smith?

I read somewhere that Smith has a positive ROI for his career in races of 1 1/4 miles or longer (any surface). It didn't go down at all today.