Revolutionary Morning Line 10-1? WTF?

[Smarty Cide]

That a great value right there. Hope it stay around there

[Producer]

I feel that 10-1 is way too low. Lack of early speed and an inside post make the chances of him getting in serious trouble likely. Even with Mr. Bo-rail riding.

[ManU918]

I wouldn't take him at 20-1 let alone 10-1.

[Smarty Cide]

if any horse i bet this year has to run into trouble let it be revolutionary, hes been in trouble last 2 races. and no rider id rather have the Bo-Rail

revolutionary and orb are far superior to the field IMO. I do like Goldencents tho

[depalma113]

That a great value right there. Hope it stay around there

It's a terrible morning line. He'll be lower than that.

[Producer]

What do you see in him that makes you think he is far superior?

I don't know what to make of the LA Derby. Beyer has it rated low and bris has it highly rated. The race was run over a second slower than the graded race for older horses (won by Graydar) run one race earlier with an identical 6F split.

[Leparoux]

What do you see in him that makes you think he is far superior?

I don't know what to make of the LA Derby. Beyer has it rated low and bris has it highly rated. The race was run over a second slower than the graded race for older horses (won by Graydar) run one race earlier with an identical 6F split.
Departing came back to win the Illinois Derby. Not saying that makes it a key race or anything crazy like that but it certainly doesn't hurt.

[Smarty Cide]

the horse has a nose for the finish line. plus just gotta like a good closer in the derby. at least to place which is how im bettng him

[JustRalph]

Just because you started this thread.

I wasn't going to post this, but what the heck.........remember, this is Equisim, multiple pace lines selected. Just for fun........ ;)

[JustRalph]

using basically the last race for each horse

[Robert Fischer]

I didn't like Revolutionary. I feel that Overanalyze is the 2nd best Pletcher horse. But I went back, and Revolutionary hasn't done much wrong. I still have Overanalyze rated higher, but Revolutionary is certainly an attractive longshot to add or use.


Verrazano should have been made the clear ML favorite, but the biggest gripe I have is Itsmyluckyday being so high. 15-1? I thought 8-1 would have been more reasonable, and I was hoping he would take some money, as he's a somewhat attractive horse that I don't plan on using this time.

[Smarty Cide]

Just because you started this thread.

I wasn't going to post this, but what the heck.........remember, this is Equisim, multiple pace lines selected. Just for fun........ ;)



way over my head. can you explain those charts

[horses4courses]

I figure 10-1 is a fair price on Revolutionary.
Not saying he's going win, but I think it's close to the odds he will go off at.

An off-track won't hurt his chances, added to the fact that his rider attracts money due to previous success.
So, if it comes up wet, he could be 6, or 8-1.
With the likes of Orb and Verazzano taking support, though,
I just don't see too many others being less than 8-1, and that includes Goldencents.
Derby Day can produce a few surprises on the oddsboard, though.
That's part of the fun and challenge of betting the race..... :ThmbUp:

[mostpost]

way over my head. can you explain those charts
If I am correct those are predictive results charts. It's a computer program that takes running lines of all the horses and runs thousands(?) of imaginary races, finally arriving at the results JustRalph posted.

I can't say I agree with a program that has Verrazano running eleventh in the early going.

[JustRalph]

way over my head. can you explain those charts

It's the results of a simulation of the race, run by the horse racing program, "Equisim"

It's been around a long time. I still use it all the time, in conjunction with jcapper

One chart is using the last race basically, each horse ran. This is using BRIS numbers.

The other chart is a mix of all the pace lines selected by the program.

[Show Me the Wire]

That a great value right there. Hope it stay around there

Maybe, 6 to 1. Horse runs in traffic so the inside post draw is a positive leading to a ground saving trip.

[Valuist]

I thought Battaglia actually did a pretty good job, in terms of ranking the horses. I don't think anyone will be below 5-1, however. Here's my line:

Verrazano 5-1
Orb 5-1
Goldencents 6-1
Normandy Invasion 9-1
Revolutionary 10-1
Overanalyze 15-1
Itsmyluckyday 15-1
Java's War 15-1
Palace Malice 20-1
Vyjack 20-1
Will Take Charge 20-1
Mylute 20-1
Oxbow 25-1
Charming Kitten 30-1
Lines of Battle 30-1
Golden Soul 30-1
Frac Daddy 30-1
Black Onyx 50-1
Falling SKy 50-1
Giant Finish 50-1

[sandpit]

If Giant Finish splits this field, he'll run the best race of his life.

[raybo]

Just because you started this thread.

I wasn't going to post this, but what the heck.........remember, this is Equisim, multiple pace lines selected. Just for fun........ ;)

Suspect, IMO. Does anyone really think Verrazano will be that far back? If he is, well, somebody's head will probably roll, trainer, jockey, or both. I can see him a bit off the pace at the 1st call, maybe the 2nd call, but don't see him waiting too long to get to the front. Unless, of course, something dramatic happens in the first jump or two and he gets buried.

[thearmada]

Just because you started this thread.

I wasn't going to post this, but what the heck.........remember, this is Equisim, multiple pace lines selected. Just for fun........ ;)

Might be a dumb question, but the Equisim chart shows the winner based on the pace lines?

[JustRalph]

Might be a dumb question, but the Equisim chart shows the winner based on the pace lines?

In the PP"s there are ten lines. In the first mode The program chooses the best single line that matches today's race (distance, surface etc) from previos races, and uses that race to run the sim.

In the second mode, it uses combined pace lines of the best matching races from previous races.

There is actually a third way to run the sim. That is by going thru every horse and choosing your own line to be used by just clicking the line you want it to use. This allows you to decide what kind of race you think the horse is gong to run today.

It's a great program that's been around over ten years. If you want to know more about it..........

Www.thorotech.com

Users guide here
http://www.thorotech.com/equisim/ESGuide.html

[letswastemoney]

Revolutionary just isn't fast enough, and I would subtract points for Titletown Five and that 99/1 shot setting up the race for him in the Louisiana Derby.

[precocity]

I didn't like Revolutionary. I feel that Overanalyze is the 2nd best Pletcher horse. But I went back, and Revolutionary hasn't done much wrong. I still have Overanalyze rated higher, but Revolutionary is certainly an attractive longshot to add or use.


Verrazano should have been made the clear ML favorite, but the biggest gripe I have is Itsmyluckyday being so high. 15-1? I thought 8-1 would have been more reasonable, and I was hoping he would take some money, as he's a somewhat attractive horse that I don't plan on using this time.

robert chill out on talking about Overanalyze, got a gut feeling he is going to run a big one.

[dkithore]

using basically the last race for each horse

JR

would you consider a diff. outcome if track turns muddy? Just Wondering what your thoughts are.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Not high on Revolutionary, assuming that Castellano had his choice between him and Normandy Invasion.....and I think JJ and his agent are probably better cappers than me.....

[ArlJim78]

Departing came back to win the Illinois Derby. Not saying that makes it a key race or anything crazy like that but it certainly doesn't hurt.
for what its worth the 7th place finisher also came back and was within a neck of winning the Bluegrass.

[Valuist]

If one likes Revolutionary, wouldn't they also like Mylute, who's going to be a far bigger price?

[Tall One]

the horse has a nose for the finish line. plus just gotta like a good closer in the derby. at least to place which is how im bettng him



This guy gets it, but I'll have him to win. Been with him since the Withers, and I believe the wide trip in the LA Derby and the 14 horse field set him up nicely here.

Like the fact that after that race, he was brought back to WinStar for a brief vacation before resuming his Derby training.

Nice exercise track they got over at WinStar. ;)

[peeptoad]

This horse moves up in the slop imo. Plus he gets a somewhat favorable post both for his and the jock's style. He's probably 5-1 PT.

[Leparoux]

Revolutionary just isn't fast enough,
The 102 fig disagrees with you.

[Robert Fischer]

If Giant Finish splits this field, he'll run the best race of his life.

That's actually about right were I pick him to end up. He has good speed, and should be near the pace early. He's a free-running horse with natural speed, and that is complimented by some pretty good stamina. He's had some wide posts recently where he ended up with worse trips than the winners, and held surprisingly well.

All those positives aside, I just don't think he's as talented as the win contenders in here. Even if he gets the distance from a forward position, he probably doesn't have much chance to round out the superfecta unless it's a tremendously speed biased race.

[Smarty Cide]

Revolutionary just isn't fast enough, and I would subtract points for Titletown Five and that 99/1 shot setting up the race for him in the Louisiana Derby.

102 buddy

[Smarty Cide]

This guy gets it, but I'll have him to win. Been with him since the Withers, and I believe the wide trip in the LA Derby and the 14 horse field set him up nicely here.

Like the fact that after that race, he was brought back to WinStar for a brief vacation before resuming his Derby training.

Nice exercise track they got over at WinStar. ;)

well said



long live war pass

[JustRalph]

JR

would you consider a diff. outcome if track turns muddy? Just Wondering what your thoughts are.

Sure. But remember, equisim is just for reference. I don't bet that thing blindly at all. But it has given me more longshots over the years than anything else.

It's a plain old numbers to numbers comparison. The trick is watching for horses coming in from different tracks etc. some numbers just don't match up.

If it rains at CDX, I think it will be fun....... :lol:

Hopefully late in the day. I like the turf racing at CDX, wouldn't want to screw up the turf races.

[letswastemoney]

102 buddy
I guess he did get a 102. I am interested to see what the race looks like on CJ's figures.

He will still be overbet with Derby legend Calvin Borel aboard.

[cordep17]

That's actually about right were I pick him to end up. He has good speed, and should be near the pace early. He's a free-running horse with natural speed, and that is complimented by some pretty good stamina. He's had some wide posts recently where he ended up with worse trips than the winners, and held surprisingly well.

All those positives aside, I just don't think he's as talented as the win contenders in here. Even if he gets the distance from a forward position, he probably doesn't have much chance to round out the superfecta unless it's a tremendously speed biased race.

I think that it is also telling how he came to be in this race...
His owners said "YOLO"
His trainer said "really? I guess I support their decision" clearly, he was not being pointed here, and probably for good reason.

[PaceAdvantage]

At first glance, I'm liking this horse a lot in the Derby...not my final choice yet...but pretty damn strong on my first go round of the numbers...

[CincyHorseplayer]

At first glance, I'm liking this horse a lot in the Derby...not my final choice yet...but pretty damn strong on my first go round of the numbers...

Me too,I've looked at closers other than Orb and I keep coming back to this guy.Victim of an absurd pace last out,making 3rd start off a layoff,I think he runs bigger than he did in the Remsen,in which he had huge late pace.On Helm ratings he's a 3-3 in stamina,only concern.But has a B+/A+ in the slop.He's going to play a big part of my bet Saturday.I think he's sitting on a good one.

[raybo]

Conceding a fast early pace, Java's War looks as good as any "other than early" horse. My velocities have him 3rd in FR2 and 1st in FR3. Odds should be very good too! If the fast pace doesn't pan out then who knows, lots of "earlies" in here.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Conceding a fast early pace, Java's War looks as good as any "other than early" horse. My velocities have him 3rd in FR2 and 1st in FR3. Odds should be very good too! If the fast pace doesn't pan out then who knows, lots of "earlies" in here.

I looked at him too,but is really a dead closer and that will be too much off the pace IMO Ray.

[raybo]

I looked at him too,but is really a dead closer and that will be too much off the pace IMO Ray.

I'm not expecting anything like last year's pace, just "relatively" fast, so maybe not so far back. We'll see tomorrow.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm not expecting anything like last year's pace, just "relatively" fast, so maybe not so far back. We'll see tomorrow.

I expect at least an honest pace.It won't be the classic strung out field but when you have 5 horses that want to lead by 6f and there is still a half mile to go,closers can still close.

Normand Invasion.I'm really expecting a race comparable but faster than Normandy Invasion's Remsen.I think 3rd race off layoff after 2 not great trips and a nice finish vs a ridiculous 77 pace,he's primed to run a big one.I trust Chad Brown,with his turf proficiency to get this guy fit for distance.Take a look at the Remsen Ray and tell me what you think.

[raybo]

I expect at least an honest pace.It won't be the classic strung out field but when you have 5 horses that want to lead by 6f and there is still a half mile to go,closers can still close.

Normand Invasion.I'm really expecting a race comparable but faster than Normandy Invasion's Remsen.I think 3rd race off layoff after 2 not great trips and a nice finish vs a ridiculous 77 pace,he's primed to run a big one.I trust Chad Brown,with his turf proficiency to get this guy fit for distance.Take a look at the Remsen Ray and tell me what you think.

Nice finish for both horses. Maybe Normandy laid a little too far back early? Pace didn't appear to warrant that many lengths back early. Still he made a strong move, possibly a little early but he had so much ground to make up he really had no choice. Except for the early pace being a bit slow, very nice performance.

[depalma113]

Early money has Revolutionary the favorite.

[Robert Fischer]

Early money has Revolutionary the favorite.

How is Verrazano 11-1 in the early line ??
:confused::confused:

am I missing inside information that V isn't right ?

[PaceAdvantage]

Early money has Revolutionary the favorite.Front page says Goldencents is co-fav with Revolutionary...

[thearmada]

In the PP"s there are ten lines. In the first mode The program chooses the best single line that matches today's race (distance, surface etc) from previos races, and uses that race to run the sim.

In the second mode, it uses combined pace lines of the best matching races from previous races.

There is actually a third way to run the sim. That is by going thru every horse and choosing your own line to be used by just clicking the line you want it to use. This allows you to decide what kind of race you think the horse is gong to run today.

It's a great program that's been around over ten years. If you want to know more about it..........

Www.thorotech.com

Users guide here
http://www.thorotech.com/equisim/ESGuide.html

Thanks. I will be sure to check it out.

[raybo]

How is Verrazano 11-1 in the early line ??
:confused::confused:

am I missing inside information that V isn't right ?

No, there's just a lot of people who think he can't win the Derby. But. there's nothing wrong with him that I know of anyway. We'll all see tomorrow.

[Will Power]

I've got to go on record and say that Revolutionary will "bounce"/regress. He bounced off of last 100+BRIS, he bounced 2al in last form cycle and he bounced off of first stretch-out. And, I don't like the "S" running style.

Plus, Calvin may be "overbet."

[Tall One]

How is Verrazano 11-1 in the early line ??
:confused::confused:

am I missing inside information that V isn't right ?



And that's about where I had him in my line(15-1) and not a value play AT ALL.

He was really lathered up during his jog Thursday AM(low 60's no humidity), as well as during his schooling session Wednesday afternoon.

Im serious when I say this horse will get demoralized today, and may not run another race of consequence again.