synthesis,val,val2,val3 "real world odds-line"

[shanta]

i have been working on this for a while now. the odds line on the programs are non linear and point to so many overlays that it is difficult to decide "which horses in this race really deserve a bet".then when you hide to top 5 contenders odds are reduced even more on the remaining horses.i first tried using the percentage of winners by tiers to make a line. then i based my line on average winning mutual by tier.both these approaches were marginal at best.also when hiding horses does that resulting odds line really reflect anything when all the horses in the race are not considered?i understand docs thinking :"our line should reflect horses largely overlaid against our line"but what about when it comes down to actual "betting my real money" time?ok here is what i have come up with:
1)enter a paceline for all horses in the race that meet your guidelines
2)after calculating go straight to the bottom line betting line.DO NOT hide any horses.
3)DO NOT look at corrolaries, e/l graph, validator readouts.NOTHING.
4)using the odds line with all the horses in the race focus on the top 3 horses and ties according to the program odds.
5)these top 3 and ties according to the odds line are the only horses in the race to be considered for the win.
6)ok now only with these horses look at the program odds and substitute these odds which will be the minimum odds that the horse would have to meet to be a win bet.remember only the top 3 and ties according to the program odds are to be considered and then converted ok?
program odds-"even" bet odds 3/1 or higher
program odds-"7/5" bet odds 7/2 or higher
program odds- "3/2 and 8/5" bet odds 4/1 or higher
program odds- "9/5" bet odds 9/2 or higher
program odds- "2/1" bet odds 5/1 or higher
program odds- "5/2" bet odds 6/1 or higher
program odds " 3/1" bet odds 7/1 or higher
program odds-"7/2" bet odds 8/1 or higher
program odds-"4/1" bet odds 10/1 or higher
program odds-"9/2" bet odds 11/1 or higher
program odds- "5/1" bet odds 12/1 or higher
program odds -"6/1" bet odds 15/1 or higher

i have done this method for the last 2 weeks and have bet over 300 horses using these guidelines.sounds like a lot of horses but i wager 5 days a week at least 3 tracks per day. its been averaging about 10 horses per card .my own results show a winning percentage of 16% which means i need a $12.00 mutuel to break even .

This can be used with ANY of the sartin programs that have the "bottom line betting line". YOU DO NOT NEED VAL3 TO TRY THIS.
the odds are available online at brisnet for usually the last 2 weeks so this can be checked "real world" style.

If this method shows profit for you the side benefits are
a)no more worrying about "hiding" and the confusion that sometimes results.
b)no more breaking ties on v/dc screen
c) no need for the e/l graph

Richie

[socantra]

Interesting post. I'll certainly play with it.

Seems like Mark Cramer mentioned something about betting the overlays in the top 3 as an automatic method. He also mentioned when Sartin did the test with Cramer's money that they seemed to be waiting for at least a 2X overlay on BL/BL. I don't believe he ever tied the two together though.

A few questions:

1. You say to "Enter a paceline for all horses in the race that meet your guidelines." Does that mean you're still looking for top 5 SR & ties, or does guidelines mean you're just excluding obvious dogs?

2. You seem to be generally using a 2.5X overlay factor, with one dipping to 2.33X, but your "even" oddsline requires a 3X. Is there a reason for this, or do you just personally use a 3/1 minimum instead of Sartin'e standard 5/2?

I know it's too soon to reach any firm conclusions yet, but is it showing a profit, and, if so, what sort of ROI?

3. Are you using "best of last 3 comparable", or picking or using another direction on your paceline selection?

Thanks for sharing, and I'm not being critical. Just trying to get a better feel for what you are doing. It sounds like it certainly merits further research.

Dick......

[yak merchant]

Any of you Sartin kids know anything about the Fractal Analysis stuff Sartin supposedly put into his last program?

[Binder]

Hey Rich
Wow this is a very radical move for you
Having learned so much from you. How to make a consistant
profit from 20 Race cycles. I'm
positve that you have worked on the
odds line to give you optimal
profits too I trust your judgement
Good Skill

Wishing you all the best
with you project

Rich, If you get a minute
please E mail me
Bill:)

[shanta]

i enter a paceline for every horse in race that is 7.5 or less beaten lenghts finish. i only use fast and good lines on fast tracks.no sloppy,wet fast, muddy.on off tracks i am using off track lines as well as fast lines.i use projections when the horse in question has routed with at least the same speed rating as the xtracted line.i extract when the horse has run at least that speed rating sprinting.i am very wary of xtracting. much more uncomfortable to me then projecting.used to be the other way around!with xtracted lines only beaten lenghts finish must be 3.5 or less . my method of selecting lines varies depending on what tracks i am wagering. at some tracks the program works better respecting that tracks speed rating "range" for comparable distance and "class" structure while at others "best of the last 3 comparable" produces best. that is what i have found anyway. currently Gulfstream and Oaklawn are producing the best using "best of last 3 comparable" while Tampa Bay, Sunland Park,Mountaineer and Sam Houston have been favoring my other method of line selection. i have also had some long runouts especially playing 2 or 3 tracks simultaneously.
Richie

[shanta]

i have no clue what fractals are or mean. i see them on the program output but am clueless how to best use the info.
Richie

[Binder]

Yak Merchant

Hi
I hope I can explain this
I don't know anything about Doc's fractals formula
but He explained how and why he uses them in his later programs
This is demonstrated on his video seminar
Hold up your right and left hand in front of you palms facing you,
Thumbs pointing up. Lets call your left hand the 2nd fraction and your right hand
the 3rd fraction If you slide you fingers together so your finger are now intertwined
Fractals are a measure of the space between the 2nd and 3rd fraction or the 1st and 2nd
fraction. Its a measure of the fractions between them It sounds strange but look at your hands and see how you left hand fingers go into the rights area and then the right fingers go into the lefts area. Fractals are the combination of the two call at that point were they are joined I hope that helps
Bind

[shanta]

this weeks totals(my week in recordkeeping is sunday through saturday)

sunday-bet- 30 horses/ 5 winnners(tampa,pha,mnr)

monday-bet-38 horses/ 8 winners(pha,op,mnr)

tuesday-bet- 32 horses/ 5 winners(tampa,sunland,mnr)

wednesday-bet-40 horses/ 5 winners(gp,tup,penn)

4 day totals bet 140 horses
23 winners

Richie