Rosie...

[Lasix67]

Rosie Napravnik has to be considered one of the premiere riders in the country. She has gone from owning Delaware to owning the Fair Grounds and is now just schooling some of the best jockey's in the country at Keeneland. Wow!!!!!

[Stillriledup]

She's a once in a generation rider, she's the modern day Julie and she might even be better.

[Lasix67]

She's a once in a generation rider, she's the modern day Julie and she might even be better.

I couldn't agree more.

[holmmd]

She's very talented but I would put her one notch below the 3-4 top tier riders.

[pandy]

I'm a big fan of hers. Some people just have a gift and horses run for them. She has that gift. When she gets on a horse for the first time many horses perk up considerably. Julie Krone had that same magic.

[magwell]

I'm a big fan of hers. Some people just have a gift and horses run for them. She has that gift. When she gets on a horse for the first time many horses perk up considerably. Julie Krone had that same magic. Exactly :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[usedtolovetvg]

She's got something that many riders don't have, male or female. She got guts. She's not afraid to to stick her horse in a tight spot or shoot through along the rail. She is also a very strong rider. If she she can stay healthy, and that seems like a pretty big if with the chances she takes, she might make me forget old what's her name.

[SandyW]

She's got something that many riders don't have, male or female. She got guts. She's not afraid to to stick her horse in a tight spot or shoot through along the rail. She is also a very strong rider. If she she can stay healthy, and that seems like a pretty big if with the chances she takes, she might make me forget old what's her name.

She did not look to strong in the stretch in today's feature race when Steven's out rode her for second, there are zero girl jockey's that can out ride a top male jockey when the chips are down. The simple fact is that a girl is not stronger then a man, period!!!

[PaceAdvantage]

You're kicking ass and taking names today Sandy...

[castaway01]

She did not look to strong in the stretch in today's feature race when Steven's out rode her for second, there are zero girl jockey's that can out ride a top male jockey when the chips are down. The simple fact is that a girl is not stronger then a man, period!!!

I get your overall point, but it's not a bench press contest. Male jockeys have had great careers using all different styles---many used superior tactics, positioning, rating ability, and timing rather than simple brute strength. No reason a female couldn't do the same.

[pandy]

She did not look to strong in the stretch in today's feature race when Steven's out rode her for second, there are zero girl jockey's that can out ride a top male jockey when the chips are down. The simple fact is that a girl is not stronger then a man, period!!!

First of all, you can tell by looking at her that she is strong but finesse is more important. Julie Krone was a more talented rider than most of the men when she was active but I doubt that she could beat them in arm wrestling.

[usedtolovetvg]

I've heard many horsemen say that women connect with the horses in a way that men can't.

[SandyW]

First of all, you can tell by looking at her that she is strong but finesse is more important. Julie Krone was a more talented rider than most of the men when she was active but I doubt that she could beat them in arm wrestling.

There are times when strength is more important then finesse especially in today's feature race at KEE where I will take the stronger jock over the jock with finesse, I think she fell asleep then she woke up when Steven's went by her and then she came back and just missed second. Steven's was the difference as far as I am concerned.

BTW: When you are going head and head I'll take the stronger jock over the finesse jock every time.

[SharpCat]

[QUOTE=Lasix67]Rosie Napravnik has to be considered one of the premiere riders in the country. She has gone from owning Delaware to owning the Fair Grounds and is now just schooling some of the best jockey's in the country at Keeneland. Wow!!!!![/QU


How exactly is she schooling the best jockey's. She finished 26 wins behind Rosario and was not in the top 5 win%.

[pandy]

I think Rosario's the best rider in the sport, but Rosie is having a monster year.

[iceknight]

[QUOTE=Lasix67]Rosie Napravnik has to be considered one of the premiere riders in the country. She has gone from owning Delaware to owning the Fair Grounds and is now just schooling some of the best jockey's in the country at Keeneland. Wow!!!!![/QU


How exactly is she schooling the best jockey's. She finished 26 wins behind Rosario and was not in the top 5 win%. Rosie can be a nickname for Rosario :lol:

isn't is funny how some jockeys are referred to (by the handicapping community) more by the last name, while others by their first name. Why is that?

[Fager Fan]

There are times when strength is more important then finesse especially in today's feature race at KEE where I will take the stronger jock over the jock with finesse, I think she fell asleep then she woke up when Steven's went by her and then she came back and just missed second. Steven's was the difference as far as I am concerned.

BTW: When you are going head and head I'll take the stronger jock over the finesse jock every time.

What does that have to do with physical strength?

The jock's only riding, you know, not carrying the horse across the finish line. Strength really only comes into play when the rider has to fight a horse and win the fight.

[Some_One]

According to Brisnet PP's from yesterday at Kee, she has 1620 rides listed in '2012-1013' with a ROI of -0.48 which I take as -24%. If she was as good as people make her out to be, shouldn't she be better than takeout (-16%)?

[SandyW]

What does that have to do with physical strength?

The jock's only riding, you know, not carrying the horse across the finish line. Strength really only comes into play when the rider has to fight a horse and win the fight.

If strength doesn't mean that much then why do you find jockeys in the gym and in the weight room staying in shape??

There are many rides daily where sheer strength pushes a horse over the finish line.

Name one jockey that is not much stronger then a regular person that is their size.

[pandy]

What does that have to do with physical strength?

The jock's only riding, you know, not carrying the horse across the finish line. Strength really only comes into play when the rider has to fight a horse and win the fight.

True. The elements that make a rider great are more complex than just strength. It's just like any sport, really. Skill is hard to quantify and it's a combination of many things like instincts, agility, touch, natural talent, sense of pace, and intangibles that can't be explained.

Many years ago I did a long interview with Hall of Fame harness driver Carmine Abbatiello (The Red Man). I found him a fascinating case study because when he got on a horse for the first time the horse improved drastically, sometimes by more than a full second, and he didn't over use the whip. We talked about some of the little things he did to rev horses up but he admitted that his natural ability to make horses go faster was "in the hands" and something that the horse could sense but was virtually impossible to explain.

Bottom line is, Abbatiello had a gift and was blessed with a natural talent that somehow radiated through his hands to the horse. And how do you explain something like that? Why does a horse want to run faster simply because of a different person riding it?

But you see it all the time. I do a lot of testing off longshot methods, and when I'm betting a longshot, especially a bomb over 14-1, I always prefer to see a rider change because I've found that most big longshot winners have a different rider than they had last time. In some cases it's probably a coincidence, but I do believe that a rider change can help in many ways. For instance, years ago in N.Y. Karen Rogers used to bring in a lot of huge longshot winners from off the pace. I noticed that in most of those cases the rider that was on the horse in its previous race was a hustling rider who moved the horse much earlier, and a lot of cheap horses simply have one run, so a patient rider with softer hands can wake the horse up. I saw Julie Krone do this hundreds of times in her career.

[pandy]

If strength doesn't mean that much then why do you find jockeys in the gym and in the weight room staying in shape??

There are many rides daily where sheer strength pushes a horse over the finish line.

Name one jockey that is not much stronger then a regular person that is their size.

You can't say it doesn't mean anything but it works both ways. Some of these athletes who work hard in the gym lose some flexibility. Sheer strength is not always an asset.

[SandyW]

According to Brisnet PP's from yesterday at Kee, she has 1620 rides listed in '2012-1013' with a ROI of -0.48 which I take as -24%. If she was as good as people make her out to be, shouldn't she be better than takeout (-16%)?

I agree she is a average jockey, but nothing special, I never hear anybody say "boy oh boy" that Napravnik is great.

[OCF]

But you see it all the time. I do a lot of testing off longshot methods, and when I'm betting a longshot, especially a bomb over 14-1, I always prefer to see a rider change because I've found that most big longshot winners have a different rider than they had last time. In some cases it's probably a coincidence, but I do believe that a rider change can help in many ways. For instance, years ago in N.Y. Karen Rogers used to bring in a lot of huge longshot winners from off the pace. I noticed that in most of those cases the rider that was on the horse in its previous race was a hustling rider who moved the horse much earlier, and a lot of cheap horses simply have one run, so a patient rider with softer hands can wake the horse up. I saw Julie Krone do this hundreds of times in her career.

Interesting, who are some current jockeys with patience and soft hands who also wouldn't attract a lot of wagered $ by their very presence on the horse?

[SandyW]

True. The elements that make a rider great are more complex than just strength. It's just like any sport, really. Skill is hard to quantify and it's a combination of many things like instincts, agility, touch, natural talent, sense of pace, and intangibles that can't be explained.

Many years ago I did a long interview with Hall of Fame harness driver Carmine Abbatiello (The Red Man). I found him a fascinating case study because when he got on a horse for the first time the horse improved drastically, sometimes by more than a full second, and he didn't over use the whip. We talked about some of the little things he did to rev horses up but he admitted that his natural ability to make horses go faster was "in the hands" and something that the horse could sense but was virtually impossible to explain.

Bottom line is, Abbatiello had a gift and was blessed with a natural talent that somehow radiated through his hands to the horse. And how do you explain something like that? Why does a horse want to run faster simply because of a different person riding it?



I think that in harness racing things are a little different where the driver is a lot more important, I remember how horses improved when you had a first time Walter Case Jr. or a first time Jimmy Morrill Jr., but I think when I am going head and head in the stretch win or lose I pefer the stronger jock all the time.

[magwell]

I agree she is a average jockey, but nothing special, I never hear anybody say "boy oh boy" that Napravnik is great. This is starting to sound like Rosie has beaten Sandy too many times.......:D

[SandyW]

This is starting to sound like Rosie has beaten Sandy too many times.......:D

Not really, although she has cost me like yesterday when she blew second in the feature race with a poor and weak drive in the stretch, but that's racing.

We all have our favorites, she is not one of mine.:)

[castaway01]

Not really, although she has cost me like yesterday when she blew second in the feature race with a poor and weak drive in the stretch, but that's racing.

We all have our favorites, she is not one of mine.:)

Yes, you've shown that with your well-balanced and detailed "I don't like gurls" analysis.

[Leparoux]

She is a very good rider but I wouldn't say she was "schooling" the other jockeys at Keeneland. She finished the Spring meet 6th in Jockey win %.

[pandy]

Rosie leads the country in wins with 113. She is also 5th in earnings and only one other rider has over 100 wins. Her win % is 26%, second highest in the country behind Bejarano 28%. For the few here that don't seem to think she's a top rider, I guess those stats aren't good enough.

[the little guy]

Rosie leads the country in wins with 113. She is also 5th in earnings and only one other rider has over 100 wins. Her win % is 26%, second highest in the country behind Bejarano 28%. For the few here that don't seem to think she's a top rider, I guess those stats aren't good enough.


How do you think the Country's other top 10 riders would have done at Fair Grounds ( assuming Rosie wasn't riding there )?

[holmmd]

Rosie leads the country in wins with 113. She is also 5th in earnings and only one other rider has over 100 wins. Her win % is 26%, second highest in the country behind Bejarano 28%. For the few here that don't seem to think she's a top rider, I guess those stats aren't good enough.

It's not about the stats. I consider her a top rider if we're talking top 10. I just don't consider her among the top tier riders.

[SharpCat]

Rosie leads the country in wins with 113. She is also 5th in earnings and only one other rider has over 100 wins. Her win % is 26%, second highest in the country behind Bejarano 28%. For the few here that don't seem to think she's a top rider, I guess those stats aren't good enough.


These are the top 100 jockey stats as of yesterday from Equibase just so the facts are straight.


Most wins Joel Rosario 121, Rosie Napravnik, 114, Javier Castellano 108 and Russell Baze 104. So that's 4 jockeys with 100 wins or more instead of 2.

Win% Rafael Bejarano and Russel Baze are at 28% with Rosie Napravnik and Tim Thorton at 26%.

Rosie is 5th in earnings.

Maybey the most telling stat is that Rosie ranks 11th in the country in terms of Per Start $. She needs to ride with the big boys year round to find out how good she really is.

[davew]

She is on the schedule to be a segment on "60 minutes" in a couple hours - about her plans to ride in the Kentucky Derby.

[pandy]

Interesting, who are some current jockeys with patience and soft hands who also wouldn't attract a lot of wagered $ by their very presence on the horse?


Right now I don't have any favorite longshot riders who are great off the pace. Joel Rosario fit the bill when he first broke into So. Cal as did Michael Baze, who unfortunately is no longer with us.

It goes the other way, too, riders who are speed riders who wake horses up. Edwin Maldonado is this type, a real spark plug. When I evaluate jockeys or harness drivers I focus on how many winners they bring in that I did not have listed as a "contender" in the race. Over the past year, Maldonado has brought in more non-contenders to win than any jockey I've seen by a mile. This means that he is truly a remarkably gifted rider because it's a heck of a lot harder to win with one of the slowest horses in the race than with the type of horses that Gomez and Bejarano get. Maldonado finished 2nd at Santa Anita and doesn't get any Baffert horses to ride. Unfortunately the public is catching up and his odds have dropped.

[Some_One]

Rosie leads the country in wins with 113. She is also 5th in earnings and only one other rider has over 100 wins. Her win % is 26%, second highest in the country behind Bejarano 28%. For the few here that don't seem to think she's a top rider, I guess those stats aren't good enough.

I used the ROI stat from Brisnet as it would be the best indicator if she is winning at a rate that is above expectation. For Rosie, it's clear that she is not winning at the rate expected, so she is either overbet and/or not as good as everyone thinks.

[pandy]

I think if you took great riders like Cordero, Pincay, Mike Smith when he was the leading rider in New York, and looked at their ROI during their best years that they would not have a good ROI because the high percentage jocks get bet. Rosie is winning at 26% this year so naturally her horses get bet.

You can use ROI as a gauge with young jockeys breaking in. The great riders usually have high ROI's when they start or when they come into their own because they bring in longshots and the public hasn't caught up yet.

[FiveWide]

Becky Witzman ‏@HRTVBecky 18m
The Today show this morning had @RosieNapravnik as the #1 Google search this weekend. @equisponse pic.twitter.com/J5Dy1J5DIw


The world is getting to know Rosie!

-Five