Picking by the 'Trends'

[Smarty Cide]

Lets see how many horses we can disqualify if you were using the trends to pick a winner.

Ill start:

since 2003 18 horses made their last start in the Wood Memorial none have one ( or even finished in the money ) - Verrazano, Normandy Invasion, Vyjack



See if we can keep this going Ill keep a list below


Disqualified:

Verrazano X2
Normandy Invasion
Vyjack
Govenor Charlie

[maclr11]

Derby winner has always raced at 2

Govenor Charlie
Verrazano

[Smarty Cide]

Since 1990 no horse finishing worse then 4th in their final race before the derby has won.

Eliminates:

Code West
Oxbow
Power Broker

[MNslappy]

( or even finished in the money )

Wow, is that true? 10 races, 30 WPS spots, and not ONE itm finisher came out of the Wood? That's an interesting stat!

[Smarty Cide]

Wanted to keep this updated at the top but apparently you can only edit a post once.... kinda stupid... anyway

Disqualified:

Verrazano X2
Normandy Invasion
Vyjack
Govenor Charlie
Code West
Oxbow
Power Broker

[BlueChip@DRF]

Until how many races does a repeating occurence become a trend?

[Smarty Cide]

Wow, is that true? 10 races, 30 WPS spots, and not ONE itm finisher came out of the Wood? That's an interesting stat!


keep in mind tho a few of those horses got hurt

I Want Revenge, Eskendreya etc... some others i cant remember

but Empire Maker and Funny Cide were the last ones...

[BlueChip@DRF]

Wow, is that true? 10 races, 30 WPS spots, and not ONE itm finisher came out of the Wood? That's an interesting stat!

That could be very useful when creating tickets in the exotics.

[Smarty Cide]

Until how many races does a repeating occurence become a trend?


lets say a decade but i like the traditional ones

[BlueChip@DRF]

lets say a decade but i like the traditional ones

The last 11 straight Derby winners broke their maiden within their first two starts.

[Smarty Cide]

Orb
Verrazano
Goldencents
Java's War
Overanalyze
Revolutionary
Lines of Battle
Vyjack
Will Take Charge
Itsmyluckyday
Governor Charlie
Black Onyx
Palace Malice
Normandy Invasion
Frac Daddy
Mylute
Oxbow
Uncaptured
Charming Kitten
Falling Sky
Tiz a Minister
Code West
Power Broker


dont know how you did that, but thats awesome.. now lets how many we can knock out

[maclr11]

No horse that ran in the UAE Derby has ever hit the board

Eliminate Lines of Battle

[Striker]

Since 1990 no horse finishing worse then 4th in their final race before the derby has won.

Building on that trend is that 19 of those derby winners since 1990 have hit the board in their final prep race. Falling Sky did not.

[MNslappy]

The last 11 straight Derby winners broke their maiden within their first two starts.

This would eliminate a ton of horses:

Code West
Mylute
Orb
Oxbow
Revolutionary
Tiz a Minister
Winning Cause

[MNslappy]

Orb
Verrazano
Goldencents
Java's War
Overanalyze
Revolutionary
Lines of Battle
Vyjack
Will Take Charge
Itsmyluckyday
Governor Charlie
Black Onyx
Palace Malice
Normandy Invasion
Frac Daddy
Mylute
Oxbow
Uncaptured
Charming Kitten
Falling Sky
Tiz a Minister
Code West
Power Broker
Winning Cause

[BlueChip@DRF]

The last 11 straight Derby winners broke their maiden within their first two starts.

Orb
Verrazano
Goldencents
Java's War
Overanalyze
Revolutionary
Lines of Battle
Vyjack
Will Take Charge
Itsmyluckyday
Governor Charlie
Black Onyx
Palace Malice
Normandy Invasion
Frac Daddy
Mylute
Oxbow
Charming Kitten
Falling Sky
Tiz a Minister
Code West
Power Broker

[BlueChip@DRF]

Okay. That last 6 winners were making the Derby their 3rd start of their 3YO season.

Goldencents
Java's War
Overanalyze
Will Take Charge
Itsmyluckyday
Black Onyx
Palace Malice
Frac Daddy
Charming Kitten
Falling Sky

I think we are done?

[MNslappy]

Okay. That last 6 winners were making the Derby their 3rd start of their 3YO season.

lets say a decade but i like the traditional ones

I say we don't use this one because it's not at least a decade.

Me: taking this thread too seriously. :D

[MNslappy]

Goldencents
Java's War
Overanalyze
Will Take Charge
Itsmyluckyday
Palace Malice

just box em. :cool:

[Smarty Cide]

whats the post position trends that may know out a few horses

[BlueChip@DRF]

whats the post position trends that may know out a few horses

I think post #1 is the post of death.

[Robert Fischer]

fun thread

Goldencents :ThmbUp: , Overanalyze :ThmbUp:

[Striker]

whats the post position trends that may know out a few horses
Posts and winners for the KD--

:1: --12 winners(Last winner was in 1986 Ferdinand)
:2: --9
:3: --8
:4: --11
:5: --12
:6: --6
:7: --8
:8: --10
:9: --4
:10: --10
:11: --3
:12: --3
:13: --4
:14: --2
:15: --3
:16: --4
:17: --ZERO
:18: --1
:19: --1
:20: -- 2

[BlueChip@DRF]

:17: is due. :)

[Striker]

:17: is due. :)
Forty Niner 2nd in 1988, and Don't Get Mad 4th in 2005 were the only horses from that post to even sniff the top 5 of recent years.

[mostpost]

This whole thread is a waste. The whole idea that you can predict what a horse will do this year based on what a completely different set of horses did in the past is just nonsense.

So what if none of the horses that ran in the Wood in the last ten years has finished in the money in the Kentucky Derby. In the first place it is not true. In 2003 Funny Cide finished second in the Wood then won the Derby. In the second place it does not account for some very good horses that ran in the Wood then were injured before they could run in the Derby. Finally every horse that runs in the Wood is not a Derby contender, regardless of whether they are entered and run in that race.

Then somebody brought up the old Apollo curse. That is also meaningless unless we know how many horses did not race at two, but ran in the Derby. Up to about ten years ago I suspect they were few and far between. There is also the question did the horse fail because it did not race at two or did it fail because it was not good enough and would not have won if it had raced a hundred times at two.

Post position stats are also meaningless unless we know how many horses started from each post and what their probabilities of winning were. Since 1900 post positions one thru six were occupied for every Derby. The further out you go the more likely that a post was unoccupied.

[wiffleball whizz]

This whole thread is a waste. The whole idea that you can predict what a horse will do this year based on what a completely different set of horses did in the past is just nonsense.

So what if none of the horses that ran in the Wood in the last ten years has finished in the money in the Kentucky Derby. In the first place it is not true. In 2003 Funny Cide finished second in the Wood then won the Derby. In the second place it does not account for some very good horses that ran in the Wood then were injured before they could run in the Derby. Finally every horse that runs in the Wood is not a Derby contender, regardless of whether they are entered and run in that race.

Then somebody brought up the old Apollo curse. That is also meaningless unless we know how many horses did not race at two, but ran in the Derby. Up to about ten years ago I suspect they were few and far between. There is also the question did the horse fail because it did not race at two or did it fail because it was not good enough and would not have won if it had raced a hundred times at two.

Post position stats are also meaningless unless we know how many horses started from each post and what their probabilities of winning were. Since 1900 post positions one thru six were occupied for every Derby. The further out you go the more likely that a post was unoccupied.


Then don't read it....seems like everybody else is enjoying it....and I do think some of these trends are pretty good indicators....

[Leparoux]

This whole thread is a waste. The whole idea that you can predict what a horse will do this year based on what a completely different set of horses did in the past is just nonsense.

Pretty cool thread if you ask me.

[mostpost]

Then don't read it....seems like everybody else is enjoying it....and I do think some of these trends are pretty good indicators....
Then by all means base your wagers on them. I will handicap the race. Horses racing at Churchill Downs on May 4, 2013 will decide who wins, not horses who ran fifty or sixty or seventy years ago, not even horses who ran last year.

[Striker]

Then by all means base your wagers on them. I will handicap the race. Horses racing at Churchill Downs on May 4, 2013 will decide who wins, not horses who ran fifty or sixty or seventy years ago, not even horses who ran last year.
Nobody is basing wagers solely on the stats/trends provided here, at least I hope not. All this thread is, is just more info for handicappers to use or to not use. If somebody has handicapped a horse to be one of their top selections in the derby and the horse draws the 17 hole, I'm pretty sure that isn't going to make that person not bet the horse. At least I still would.

[mostpost]

Pretty cool thread if you ask me.
OK, it's cool. It's just not very predictive of who is going to win. Using the criteria presented in this thread we have eliminated. Verrazano, Orb, Revolutionary, Normandy Invasion, Vyjack and Governor Charlie. Those are (not necessarily in the same order) the #s 1. 2, 4. 5, 9 and 10 horses in the DRF top twenty and the 3s 1, 2, 3, 5 and 9 horses in Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen. But go ahead eliminate them, Overanalyze, Will Take Charge and Palace Malice could be the trifecta.

[Striker]

Post position stats are also meaningless unless we know how many horses started from each post and what their probabilities of winning were. Since 1900 post positions one thru six were occupied for every Derby. The further out you go the more likely that a post was unoccupied.
PP--Starts--Win-Place-Show--ITM%--Avg. Finish

:1: --83--8-4-5--20.5%--8.08
:2:-- 83--7-5-12--28.9%--7.69
:3: --83--5-5-8--21.7%--8.13
:4: --83--5-6-3--16.9%--8.46
:5: --83--8-8-2--21.7%--7.58
:6: --83--2-7-3--14.5%--9.34
:7: --82--6-6-4--19.5%--7.61
:8: --82--8-5-4--20.7%--8.23
:9:-- 79--4-4-8--20.3%--8.66
:10: --76--9-6-9--31.6%--7.39
:11: --72--2-4-3--12.5%--8.94
:12: --68--3-3-3--13.2%--9.46
:13: --66--4-5-7--24.2%--8.17
:14: --58--2-5-5--20.7%--9.07
:15: --51--3-2-1--11.8%--10.37
:16: --41--4-2-3--22%--9.39
:17: --34--0-1-2--8.8%--10.85
:18: --26--1-4-0--19.2%--9.04
:19: --22--1-1-0--9.1%--12.73
:20: --14--1-0-1--14.3%--10.57

[mostpost]

Nobody is basing wagers solely on the stats/trends provided here, at least I hope not. All this thread is, is just more info for handicappers to use or to not use. If somebody has handicapped a horse to be one of their top selections in the derby and the horse draws the 17 hole, I'm pretty sure that isn't going to make that person not bet the horse. At least I still would.
I did not mean to be overly harsh. If I was I am sorry. My point is if Verrazano loses it will be because another horse(s) was better than him, not because his trainer chose to run him in the Wood Memorial. If Orb loses it will not be because he did not break his maiden until his third start.

[iceknight]

This whole thread is a waste. . ok I scratched my harsh response. There are many ways to pick winners and this is one more.

Here is another theory, last year I'll Have Another won and then Obama said I'll have another term and won.

This year, I feel there is going to be a revolution in our financial system so Revolutionary will win. Mortal lock. And he will also get Post :17: in the draw. Before he got injured Violence had a chance, but this will be a peaceful revolution :lol:

[mostpost]

PP--Starts--Win-Place-Show--ITM%--Avg. Finish

:1: --83--8-4-5--20.5%--8.08
:2:-- 83--7-5-12--28.9%--7.69
:3: --83--5-5-8--21.7%--8.13
:4: --83--5-6-3--16.9%--8.46
:5: --83--8-8-2--21.7%--7.58
:6: --83--2-7-3--14.5%--9.34
:7: --82--6-6-4--19.5%--7.61
:8: --82--8-5-4--20.7%--8.23
:9:-- 79--4-4-8--20.3%--8.66
:10: --76--9-6-9--31.6%--7.39
:11: --72--2-4-3--12.5%--8.94
:12: --68--3-3-3--13.2%--9.46
:13: --66--4-5-7--24.2%--8.17
:14: --58--2-5-5--20.7%--9.07
:15: --51--3-2-1--11.8%--10.37
:16: --41--4-2-3--22%--9.39
:17: --34--0-1-2--8.8%--10.85
:18: --26--1-4-0--19.2%--9.04
:19: --22--1-1-0--9.1%--12.73
:20: --14--1-0-1--14.3%--10.57
Cool!! Where did you find that information.

It looks as if post 16 is a surprisingly good post, ranking fourth in ITM % and second only to post ten in winning percentage.

[Striker]

Then somebody brought up the old Apollo curse. That is also meaningless unless we know how many horses did not race at two, but ran in the Derby. Up to about ten years ago I suspect they were few and far between. There is also the question did the horse fail because it did not race at two or did it fail because it was not good enough and would not have won if it had raced a hundred times at two.

Since 1937, 57 3-year-olds have tried and failed to win the Derby without having raced at 2. Three finished second, Coaltown in 1948, Strodes Creek in 1994 and Bodemeister last year, and four others finished third. The rest? Off the board. But I do agree with you that whatever Verrazano does in the derby it won't have anything to do with the fact he didn't race 9 days earlier.

[Smarty Cide]

This whole thread is a waste. The whole idea that you can predict what a horse will do this year based on what a completely different set of horses did in the past is just nonsense.

So what if none of the horses that ran in the Wood in the last ten years has finished in the money in the Kentucky Derby. In the first place it is not true. In 2003 Funny Cide finished second in the Wood then won the Derby. In the second place it does not account for some very good horses that ran in the Wood then were injured before they could run in the Derby. Finally every horse that runs in the Wood is not a Derby contender, regardless of whether they are entered and run in that race.

Then somebody brought up the old Apollo curse. That is also meaningless unless we know how many horses did not race at two, but ran in the Derby. Up to about ten years ago I suspect they were few and far between. There is also the question did the horse fail because it did not race at two or did it fail because it was not good enough and would not have won if it had raced a hundred times at two.

Post position stats are also meaningless unless we know how many horses started from each post and what their probabilities of winning were. Since 1900 post positions one thru six were occupied for every Derby. The further out you go the more likely that a post was unoccupied.



nobody said they were betting this way but hey thanks for pooping on our parade now run along....

[depalma113]

No horse since 1955 with a single syllable name has won the race.

Toss: Orb

[_______]

I'm with mostpost on the usefulness of historical trends in handicapping but what the hell...

No black jockey has won in 111 years.

Toss Goldencents.

[depalma113]

Okay. That last 6 winners were making the Derby their 3rd start of their 3YO season.

Goldencents
Java's War
Overanalyze
Will Take Charge
Itsmyluckyday
Black Onyx
Palace Malice
Frac Daddy
Charming Kitten
Falling Sky

I think we are done?

Overanalyze is making the Derby his third start. As is Mylute, Normandy Invasion and Revolutionary.

So we are not quite finished yet.

[Tom]

Jon White has an intersting Strike Method posted at Xpressbet in the articles section - with years of stats to back it up.

[Striker]

I'm with mostpost on the usefulness of historical trends in handicapping but what the hell...

No black jockey has won in 111 years.

Toss Goldencents.
Why just Goldencents?

[_______]

Why just Goldencents?

Which other horse will have a black jockey?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Overanalyze is making the Derby his third start. As is Mylute, Normandy Invasion and Revolutionary.

So we are not quite finished yet.


Doh! :bang:

[Striker]

Which other horse will have a black jockey?
Frac Daddy

[_______]

Frac Daddy

Huh. I didn't know that.

So scratch Goldencents and Frac Daddy.

[Robert Fischer]

way to Overanalyze (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8876669&registry=T)

[Striker]

Huh. I didn't know that.

So scratch Goldencents and Frac Daddy.
Victor Lebron is riding him

[iceknight]

Victor Lebron is riding himI was pretty sure Victor Lebron was not black.. but I had to do some digging up..

History is being made in the VI, Krigger being the first black and native Virgin Islander to win the coveted Santa Anita Derby and Victor Lebron, a Virgin Islander of Hispanic descent who finished second in the Arkansas Derby and is now qualified for the Kentucky Derby based on accumulated points.


http://www.governordejongh.com/news/releases/2013/04/statement-by-the-governor.html

Has any jockey from VI won the Kentucky Derby?

[burnsy]

This whole thread is a waste. The whole idea that you can predict what a horse will do this year based on what a completely different set of horses did in the past is just nonsense.

So what if none of the horses that ran in the Wood in the last ten years has finished in the money in the Kentucky Derby. In the first place it is not true. In 2003 Funny Cide finished second in the Wood then won the Derby. In the second place it does not account for some very good horses that ran in the Wood then were injured before they could run in the Derby. Finally every horse that runs in the Wood is not a Derby contender, regardless of whether they are entered and run in that race.


I agree with what you say about the trends determining future results but i do believe the Wood results suck in alot of money due to it being in NY. So what,it hasn't been 10 years its been nine but look at the attention and money these horses take and burn. There were a few injuries but every other year theres a horse that takes money and is no where. I think (not sure)the last horse to win the Wood and then win the derby was Fusachi Pegusas in 2000 and before that Seattle Slew in 1977. Others have hit the board and done it, but this race gets a high proportion of hype which tranlates to money in the pool, due to location and media market. The winner of this race is almost always overbet especially since theres only been 2 dual winners (Wood and Derby) in about 35 years unless i'm wrong about that. Thats a long time. Plus, there have been some (Wood Winners) real money burners along the way Easy Goer, Empire Maker, and Bellamy Road. The price you get on horses winning the Wood is rarely worth the chances of them winning (the Derby) unless you look at someone other than the winner of that race. Looked it up And i was wrong Pleasant Colony in 1981...so theres been 3 in about 35 years.

[overthehill]

Dont forget Secretariat and Genuine Risk were both third in the wood before winning the derby.

[Bennie]

Before I add a little to the trends let me remind everyone not to make the mistake I made trend betting the first time a few years ago, most of these are to eliminate horses from "winning" the Derby. Do not rush to eliminate them from finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th.
I haven't kept up with these stats the last couple of years so anyone who has the PP's from the last few Derby's can update the records, but horses who's beyer patterns from the last 3 races are b-c-a, c-a-b and c-b-a (with a the best, b second best and c third best) up to the last couple of years have a record of 64 starts
2 wins
1 place
1 show
not a good bet
and horses with the last 3 races who odds have increased with each race were 51 starts
0 wins
2 place
4 show
also not a good bet

[Bennie]

Another trend to follow up on that I haven't updated recently is horses that regressed 2+ beyer points in their last prep are
66 starts
1 win
3 place
2 show

using these 3 trends I listed and including Lines of Battle for coming from Dubai the only horses with no knocks are Orb and Will Take Charge. I'm willing to forgive Orb for not breaking his maiden early as I am a Shug fan and he likes to bring his horses along slowly and give them time to grow. That's why his horses will run years after the Pletcher horses have been retired due to physical issues. And with Will take charge coming of a 7 week layoff, looks like my key horse will be ORB. Not my only horse mind you but definitely a key.

[RXB]

Another trend to follow up on that I haven't updated recently is horses that regressed 2+ beyer points in their last prep are
66 starts
1 win
3 place
2 show

using these 3 trends I listed and including Lines of Battle for coming from Dubai the only horses with no knocks are Orb and Will Take Charge. I'm willing to forgive Orb for not breaking his maiden early as I am a Shug fan and he likes to bring his horses along slowly and give them time to grow. That's why his horses will run years after the Pletcher horses have been retired due to physical issues. And with Will take charge coming of a 7 week layoff, looks like my key horse will be ORB. Not my only horse mind you but definitely a key.

My first thought when I saw those stats: wow. But we should all remember that the Derby field has had 19 or 20 starters in each of the last eight runnings and has averaged 18 starters for the past 22 years. So ~5% wins and ~16% ITM would be the random mean stats. In that light, those stats are not nearly so horrible, and it's a rather modest sample size.

I wish there were more trainers like Shug.

[Midnight Cruiser]

Another trend to follow up on that I haven't updated recently is horses that regressed 2+ beyer points in their last prep are
66 starts
1 win
3 place
2 show

using these 3 trends I listed and including Lines of Battle for coming from Dubai the only horses with no knocks are Orb and Will Take Charge. I'm willing to forgive Orb for not breaking his maiden early as I am a Shug fan and he likes to bring his horses along slowly and give them time to grow. That's why his horses will run years after the Pletcher horses have been retired due to physical issues. And with Will take charge coming of a 7 week layoff, looks like my key horse will be ORB. Not my only horse mind you but definitely a key.

Im not followin you here: Orb went from a 102 Beyer to a 97 Beyer in his last 2 starts. How is that not regressing more than 2?

[RXB]

Im not followin you here: Orb went from a 102 Beyer to a 97 Beyer in his last 2 starts. How is that not regressing more than 2?

He did not. He has back-to-back 97's.

[Striker]

Another trend to follow up on that I haven't updated recently is horses that regressed 2+ beyer points in their last prep are
66 starts
1 win
3 place
2 show

Street Sense(9 points) and Smarty Jones(3 points) both regressed 2+ points in their final prep and won the derby.

[Midnight Cruiser]

He did not. He has back-to-back 97's.

The early PPs Im looking at show a 102 in the FOY and a 97 in the Fla Derby. Am I not looking at Beyers in the attached Brisnet PPs?

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/DerbyOaks13PPs.pdf

[Midnight Cruiser]

The early PPs Im looking at show a 102 in the FOY and a 97 in the Fla Derby. Am I not looking at Beyers in the attached Brisnet PPs?

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/DerbyOaks13PPs.pdf


I think I answered my own question. It looks like the Brisnet bold type speed figs and the DRF;s are different... My bad

[VeryOldMan]

Here is another theory, last year I'll Have Another won and then Obama said I'll have another term and won.

This year, I feel there is going to be a revolution in our financial system so Revolutionary will win. Mortal lock. And he will also get Post :17: in the draw. Before he got injured Violence had a chance, but this will be a peaceful revolution :lol:

Good stuff!

Seemed like someone didn't realize there was a combination of handicapping and whimsy in this thread. Keep at it guys.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think this thread is awesome.Some of the stats are great.Some not so great.If you can't handle the level of consciousness or overconsciousness,you might not be the diehard you think you are!This isn't completely about intellectual absorbment as it is Derby fever and it's a representation of the fact that the best racing and IMO best money is to be made in these next 4 months.Spring isn't just shedding shirts and cooking some burgers.It's time to open those barns like floodgates baby!And were ushering it in like we always do,with the Kentuck Derby.Yee haaaaawwww!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[precocity]

I'm with mostpost on the usefulness of historical trends in handicapping but what the hell...

No black jockey has won in 111 years.

Toss Goldencents.

yep your right PLEASE PLEASE EVERBODY LEAVE Goldencents OUT OF YOUR WPS,EX,TRI,AND SUPER!!!!! THANK YOU :cool:

[Bennie]

RXB- these stats are only for horses with those patterns. The beyer regression is for elimination only as is the beyer patterns. And as I stated, I haven't updated these in a couple of years as I don't use the DRF and don't have the past performances for the last couple of years. That is why I said someone could update these if they have old records of past Derbys. I think these are up to Big Browns year or the one after. The beyer patterns I listed included 64 horses. The other patterns a-b-c, a-c-b and b-a-c includes 161 horses with
abc--- 80 starts 4w-7p-5s
acb---40 starts 3w-3p-4s
bac---41 starts 4w-2p-3s
These patterns are for 13 years of Derbys with 11 winners from these patterns, 12 place and 12 show while the other patterns show only 2 wins 1 place and 1 show. Not saying these can't be in the money this year but just going with the topic of trends.
In case any one has the nerve to toss some of these, here is what looks like bad beyer patterns this year.
Verrazano.Overanalyze,Revolutionary,Itsmyluckyday, Palace Malice,Normandy Invasion,Oxbow,Falling Sky,Code West,

[Bennie]

Another little tidbit, if I am not mistaken, as I very well can be but, I believe that while some jockeys have repeated in the Derby the last 12 have all had a different Trainer win.

[Skanoochies]

How about horses that are still eligible for NW2Lifetime?

Palice Malice
Norm. Invasion
Frac Daddy
Code West
Golden Soul
Power Broker

My apologies, I am too old and computer challenged to figure it out. :bang:

[Tom]

Plan B.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Plan B.

Gotta go with Tom here.Plan "Bitches" is always the best consolation for a derby day when you get torn to shreds!I'm not expecting my friggin out of nowhere prodigy level on BC 2 days to resurrect itself here,but I have had some good luck lately with the derby.Got Tom's plan B on back burner.A friend of the family looks like a young Jackie Collins,loves horses and partying.How's that sound Tom?!!:cool:

[Cratos]

Some of you might have been around in 1973 when a big gelding named Forego entered the Churchill Downs track against the incomparable Secretariat and Sham; and he didn’t fair badly although he bumped into the fence he still finished 4th behind Secretariat’s record-breaking Derby time of 1:59 2/5; to the best of my knowledge, Forego was never entered in a race against Secretariat again.

Why am I bringing this 40 year old event up? It is because of Orb; he is big and was very awkward during his first 3 races, but in his 4th race it was as if someone flipped a switch and Orb has turned into a dominant force along the 2013 Derby trail.

Then what is the Forego connection? It might be too early to compare, but Orb appears to have the versatility of Forego and it was clearly demonstrated at Gulfstream in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby. This is not to say that Orb will go on to be a great champion like Forego or that he will be a great horse period, but it does say from I stand, Orb is something special.

The Derby historically is not won by front-runners; I believe War Emblem was the last front runner to win in 2003. In 2011, Shackelford had the lead up until the 1 1/8 mile and faded to finish 4th as Animal Kingdom roared by him and paid boxcar figures. Again last year, Bodemeister put up some terrific fractions with a 3 length lead at the 1 1/8 mile before he was reeled in by I’ll Have Another who broke from post position 19.

Most of the horses in the Derby today are milers that can stretch their speed and stamina to 1 1/8 miles and if the leader at that point is not challenged in the last 1/8 mile of the Derby, it might hold on to win.

But this year is where Orb enters the picture. He has that versatility that was spoken of earlier that will keep him in striking distance and the “Run for the Roses” will start just after the 6f or just before the last turn.

Therefore if Rosario has Orb positioned in the 3rd or 4th path going into the last turn and come out the turn in the same position with a clear path, Orb will be one tough customer come May 4th.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Or it could be another "I didn't see THAT one coming" Derby.

[letswastemoney]

Since 2002, 7 different Derby winners have started the race 6th or better, showing how important tactical speed is.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Some of you might have been around in 1973 when a big gelding named Forego entered the Churchill Downs track against the incomparable Secretariat and Sham; and he didn’t fair badly although he bumped into the fence he still finished 4th behind Secretariat’s record-breaking Derby time of 1:59 2/5; to the best of my knowledge, Forego was never entered in a race against Secretariat again.

Why am I bringing this 40 year old event up? It is because of Orb; he is big and was very awkward during his first 3 races, but in his 4th race it was as if someone flipped a switch and Orb has turned into a dominant force along the 2013 Derby trail.

Then what is the Forego connection? It might be too early to compare, but Orb appears to have the versatility of Forego and it was clearly demonstrated at Gulfstream in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby. This is not to say that Orb will go on to be a great champion like Forego or that he will be a great horse period, but it does say from I stand, Orb is something special.

The Derby historically is not won by front-runners; I believe War Emblem was the last front runner to win in 2003. In 2011, Shackelford had the lead up until the 1 1/8 mile and faded to finish 4th as Animal Kingdom roared by him and paid boxcar figures. Again last year, Bodemeister put up some terrific fractions with a 3 length lead at the 1 1/8 mile before he was reeled in by I’ll Have Another who broke from post position 19.

Most of the horses in the Derby today are milers that can stretch their speed and stamina to 1 1/8 miles and if the leader at that point is not challenged in the last 1/8 mile of the Derby, it might hold on to win.

But this year is where Orb enters the picture. He has that versatility that was spoken of earlier that will keep him in striking distance and the “Run for the Roses” will start just after the 6f or just before the last turn.

Therefore if Rosario has Orb positioned in the 3rd or 4th path going into the last turn and come out the turn in the same position with a clear path, Orb will be one tough customer come May 4th.

I never use this phrase ever but bravo my man.I could not agree more.I will admit I have been wrestling with the thoughts of probable pace but seeing him going away on the Gulfstream dirt I just cannot see anybody opening up on him to the point where they are unreachable.Since I got into this game in 1996 I have never absolutely loved a 3 year old colt this much,this early,across the board for a multitude of reasons and you echoed them very well.I think only a horrendous trip keeps him out of the winner's circle.He is special.

[depalma113]

Since 2002, 7 different Derby winners have started the race 6th or better, showing how important tactical speed is.

If only we could bet them after the gate opens.

[depalma113]

I never use this phrase ever but bravo my man.I could not agree more.I will admit I have been wrestling with the thoughts of probable pace but seeing him going away on the Gulfstream dirt I just cannot see anybody opening up on him to the point where they are unreachable.Since I got into this game in 1996 I have never absolutely loved a 3 year old colt this much,this early,across the board for a multitude of reasons and you echoed them very well.I think only a horrendous trip keeps him out of the winner's circle.He is special.

Verrazano will have plenty to say regarding Orb's finish.

[raybo]

Although I have no firm thoughts on the probable winner of the Derby, Orb may look advantaged in this field, indeed. However, there is something to be said about a horse who has never been beaten, even if some of his races weren't supposedly "well earned" or " against a tough field", or in "unremarkable time", or "against a slow pace", etc., etc., etc.. The fact that a horse is unbeaten, in itself, means something. Yes, it can mean that the horse has faced inferior foes, but it can also mean that the horse has that quality that many owners and trainers and jockeys feel is much more important than physical superiority, the refusal to lose, the competitive mindset that makes them competitive above it's physical attributes.

[1st time lasix]

As pointed out on CBS Sixty Minutes last evening...no female jock has ever won Derby----Rosie rides Mylute.

[holmmd]

If only we could bet them after the gate opens.

ain't that the truth...over half the field will be eliminated before the first turn. just have to hope your horse isn't one of the ones caught 7-10 wide around that first turn.

[BlueChip@DRF]

ain't that the truth...over half the field will be eliminated before the first turn. just have to hope your horse isn't one of the ones caught 7-10 wide around that first turn.

They have about 30 or so seconds of straight running before they get to the first turn.

[Valuist]

Running well despite being pace compromised in a major 1 1/8 mile prep:

Normandy Invasion (Wood)
Goldencents (Santa Anita Derby)
Orb (Florida Derby)

this has been a very positive angle over the years.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Running well despite being pace compromised in a major 1 1/8 mile prep:

Normandy Invasion (Wood)
Goldencents (Santa Anita Derby)
Orb (Florida Derby)

this has been a very positive angle over the years.

Verrazano doesn't qualify here?

[Will Power]

was asked, "what is typical number of prior wins for Kentucky Derby winner?"See the photo. pic.twitter.com/5MtquG4eyl (http://t.co/5MtquG4eyl)

[dkithore]

As pointed out on CBS Sixty Minutes last evening...no female jock has ever won Derby----Rosie rides Mylute.

One has to ask how many females got to ride the Derby? And significance of such statement (statistically that is).

[dkithore]

Running well despite being pace compromised in a major 1 1/8 mile prep:

Normandy Invasion (Wood)
Goldencents (Santa Anita Derby)
Orb (Florida Derby)

this has been a very positive angle over the years.

I believe you are on to something. But caution: there are black swans (randomness).

[holmmd]

They have about 30 or so seconds of straight running before they get to the first turn.

Fair enough. I'll put it another way...30 seconds into "The Most Exciting Two Minutes In Sports" over half the field will be eliminated from win contention.

[depalma113]

Since 2007, there have been only 5 horses that have had a combined 300 or better Beyer point total in their previous 3 races before the derby. 4 of them have hit the board including: two wins, a second and a third.

This year we have Verrazano at 301.

[rastajenk]

That's pretty strong.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Since 2007, there have been only 5 horses that have had a combined 300 or better Beyer point total in their previous 3 races before the derby. 4 of them have hit the board including: two wins, a second and a third.

This year we have Verrazano at 301.


Contenders with a combined 300 or better Beyer point total in their previous 3 races before the derby:

In 2006, 4th, 7th, and 17th.
In 2004, it was the trifecta, 299 made the superfecta.
In 2003, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th.
In 2002, 4th, 6th, 7th.
In 2001, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 11th, 14th.

Looks like Beyer was more generous back then with his numbers.

[Striker]

Since 2007, there have been only 5 horses that have had a combined 300 or better Beyer point total in their previous 3 races before the derby. 4 of them have hit the board including: two wins, a second and a third.

This year we have Verrazano at 301.
Could you post the 5 horses with the beyers from the 3rd race to the prep. I would like to see the pattern of the beyers for those horses. My guess would be that they are not like Verrazano's speed figs, in that they have decreased over the last 3 races 105-101-95, but maybe I'm wrong.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Could you post the 5 horses with the beyers from the 3rd race to the prep. I would like to see the pattern of the beyers for those horses. My guess would be that they are not like Verrazano's speed figs, in that they have decreased over the last 3 races 105-101-95, but maybe I'm wrong.


Bodemeister 101-101-108
Big Brown 90-106-106
Street Sense 108-102-[93] [93 was on polytrack]
Curlin 102-99-105
Gayego 102-96-103

[depalma113]

Contenders with a combined 300 or better Beyer point total in their previous 3 races before the derby:

In 2006, 4th, 7th, and 17th.
In 2004, it was the trifecta, 299 made the superfecta.
In 2003, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th.
In 2002, 4th, 6th, 7th.
In 2001, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 11th, 14th.

Looks like Beyer was more generous back then with his numbers.

I don't have the info from 2003 down. Could you tell me where the horses that totaled 295 or higher finished.

[keithw84]

No Dosage tosses yet? Or is using Dosage passé now?

[BlueChip@DRF]

I don't have the info from 2003 down. Could you tell me where the horses that totaled 295 or higher finished.

2003: Total >= 295

296 - Funny Cide 1st
317 - Empire Maker 2nd
311 - Peace Rules 3rd
305 - Atswhatimtalknbout 4th
312 - Buddy Gil 6th

[depalma113]

2003: Total >= 295

296 - Funny Cide 1st
317 - Empire Maker 2nd
311 - Peace Rules 3rd
305 - Atswhatimtalknbout 4th
312 - Buddy Gil 6th

I'm sorry, I mean years 2002, and 2001.

[Midnight Cruiser]

Has a horse ever won the Kentucky Derby that was 10-1 or higher in his race before the KD?

[depalma113]

Has a horse ever won the Kentucky Derby that was 10-1 or higher in his race before the KD?

Yes. As recently as 2009 with Mine That Bird.

[Bettowin]

Yes. As recently as 2009 with Mine That Bird.

Sloppy track too............ hmmm.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Sloppy track too............ hmmm.

Oh no you don't! ;)

http://www.layoutlocator.com/graphics/dldimg/0df92521219f2ce26917364f0c857692_yoda_drunk-3556.bmp

[CincyHorseplayer]

Verrazano will have plenty to say regarding Orb's finish.

You're right he'll have a say in probable pace of the race which will more likely burn himself up and decide how much further ahead Orb is in front of him.

[raybo]

You're right he'll have a say in probable pace of the race which will more likely burn himself up and decide how much further ahead Orb is in front of him.

Is that a prediction? :)

I think we might be surprised with what the connections want V to do early. You might see him lay off the pace for the first time in his career. I like Orb, but this is the Derby and nobody knows how the race will be run, or who will be advantaged by that pace. These 3 yos haven't shown us what they are able to do yet.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Is that a prediction? :)

I think we might be surprised with what the connections want V to do early. You might see him lay off the pace for the first time in his career. I like Orb, but this is the Derby and nobody knows how the race will be run, or who will be advantaged by that pace. These 3 yos haven't shown us what they are able to do yet.

No the guy is calling people stupid in one thread if they say anything bad about Verrazano,and I get that snarky comment in his post when I wasn't even talking to him,so I figured I'd post one of my own!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Is that a prediction? :)

I think we might be surprised with what the connections want V to do early. You might see him lay off the pace for the first time in his career. I like Orb, but this is the Derby and nobody knows how the race will be run, or who will be advantaged by that pace. These 3 yos haven't shown us what they are able to do yet.

I'm likely going to bet Orb to win.If he's less than 4-1 I'll just play doubles and the pick 4.This could be a pretty chalky Oaks and Derby and I might not bet much at all.

Regarding the pace I've got it at 36 x 1 and with the pace abilty of Goldcents it will assure that it is quick enough while maybe not crowded.Verrazano,Goldcents,Itsmyluckyday,Oxbow,Fa lling Sky all want to be within a length of the lead at the 6 furlong marker.And IMO they'll all try to rate and slow it down but it won't work!

I'm separating them first by what speed I think they will run.Then probable pace(hurt or help),theny by stamina index on both sides.That leaves me with Orb as tops in all 3,then Revolutionary/Verrazzano(I think he'll rate enough too)at least bred on one side for distance and probable pace to their liking,and my wiseguy horse as Palace Malace,who is distance bred on both sides and I think they'll give him a rated 1 run at big odss.

[raybo]

I'm likely going to bet Orb to win.If he's less than 4-1 I'll just play doubles and the pick 4.This could be a pretty chalky Oaks and Derby and I might not bet much at all.

I'll wait for the post positions and then try to figure out what each horse will have to do out of the gate and to the first turn to stay in touch, which should tell me which horses will be in contention for the lead at the 1st call, and what that pace might be. Then I'll figure which horses will be in contention for the lead at the 2nd call and what that pace might be. Then I'll look at advantaged and disadvantaged running styles, and final fraction capabilities, before making decisions on the likely final win contenders.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'll wait for the post positions and then try to figure out what each horse will have to do out of the gate and to the first turn to stay in touch, which should tell me which horses will be in contention for the lead at the 1st call, and what that pace might be. Then I'll figure which horses will be in contention for the lead at the 2nd call and what that pace might be. Then I'll look at advantaged and disadvantaged running styles, and final fraction capabilities, before making decisions on the likely final win contenders.

With the full length of the stretch before the first turn I'm not real concerned with post positions.I forgot to add I might make a play on Revolutionary too.The way I thin it will go is I'll make a small bet on Revolutionary,Orb and Verrazano will both be underlays and I'll just play the pick 4.

[depalma113]

No the guy is calling people stupid in one thread if they say anything bad about Verrazano,and I get that snarky comment in his post when I wasn't even talking to him,so I figured I'd post one of my own!

Oh I see, in a message board, we can only speak to you when spoken to. Thanks your majesty.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Oh I see, in a message board, we can only speak to you when spoken to. Thanks your majesty.

You can do whatever you want.I'm not running around calling people stupid for not agreeing with my handicapping opinion.But if you insist,I have no problem with you being the a$shole:cool:

[depalma113]

You can do whatever you want.I'm not running around calling people stupid for not agreeing with my handicapping opinion.But if you insist,I have no problem with you being the a$shole:cool:


I didn't call anyone stupid for not agreeing with my handicapping. I said comparing Verrazano to Gemologist is stupid.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I didn't call anyone stupid for not agreeing with my handicapping. I said comparing Verrazano to Gemologist is stupid.

It was still somebody's handicapping opinion.There are definitely enough parallels to make a comparison.I like Verrazano by the way.IMO I think only 3 have a very good chance to win in Orb,Verrazano,and Revolutionary.

[depalma113]

It was still somebody's handicapping opinion.There are definitely enough parallels to make a comparison.I like Verrazano by the way.IMO I think only 3 have a very good chance to win in Orb,Verrazano,and Revolutionary.

You're right I was wrong, I should have chosen a better way to show why I don't believe it is a fair comparison.

[raybo]

Well, so much for trends! Initial RS BB win contenders (top 5 picks only). No Orb, nowhere! Note: this is for win only, not place or show.

[JackS]

Well, so much for trends! Initial RS BB win contenders (top 5 picks only). No Orb, nowhere! Note: this is for win only, not place or show.
I like the list except for Charming kitten and the ommission of Orb.

[depalma113]

Well, so much for trends! Initial RS BB win contenders (top 5 picks only). No Orb, nowhere! Note: this is for win only, not place or show.


Horse racing would be like the stock market if you could sell your tickets when the race is running.

[raybo]

I like the list except for Charming kitten and the ommission of Orb.

Well, let's see, if I get rid of Charming Kitten and add Orb, heck I get the same thing everyone else has! No money in that is there?

My program doesn't care what everybody thinks about individual horses (and my program doesn't think much of Orb in this race's field), it cares about how all the horses mix and which ones are advantaged and which ones aren't, by that mix. Plus it looks at the race from 2 different perspectives, 1) the race runs as it should, and 2) the race doesn't run as it should. So, naturally I'm going to have horses in my win contenders that others don't because they expect each horse to run exactly the way it likes to run. That never happens, not for all the horses in a race. So, if you only look at the highs, and some lows happen, then the way the race runs is different than you expected and you're screwed. I try to cover both scenarios in my contenders, and bet only the value contenders.

PS, As I stated, this is an initial analysis, things can change before the race, and it's strictly for win only, not any other finish position, so some of these horses could finish up the track if things don't go their way.

[JackS]

Well, let's see, if I get rid of Charming Kitten and add Orb, heck I get the same thing everyone else has! No money in that is there?

My program doesn't care what everybody thinks about individual horses (and my program doesn't think much of Orb in this race's field), it cares about how all the horses mix and which ones are advantaged and which ones aren't, by that mix. Plus it looks at the race from 2 different perspectives, 1) the race runs as it should, and 2) the race doesn't run as it should. So, naturally I'm going to have horses in my win contenders that others don't because they expect each horse to run exactly the way it likes to run. That never happens, not for all the horses in a race. So, if you only look at the highs, and some lows happen, then the way the race runs is different than you expected and you're screwed. I try to cover both scenarios in my contenders, and bet only the value contenders.

PS, As I stated, this is an initial analysis, things can change before the race, and it's strictly for win only, not any other finish position, so some of these horses could finish up the track if things don't go their way.
It was just an opinion and probably has nothing to do in the way this race will play out. I'm the same way and will not be surprized if Charming Kitten runs a big race. Ihave no special love for Orb other than I think he is a contender and he will not be my key in this race but will be an inclusion on my ticket(s).
Believe me, I was not trying to talk anyone out of playing what they like. I'm wrong much more often than right and will not be a man with a broken heart if I fail to cash in on this race. It's all fun (forums,opinions and race).

[raybo]

It was just an opinion and probably has nothing to do in the way this race will play out. I'm the same way and will not be surprized if Charming Kitten runs a big race. Ihave no special love for Orb other than I think he is a contender and he will not be my key in this race but will be an inclusion on my ticket(s).
Believe me, I was not trying to talk anyone out of playing what they like. I'm wrong much more often than right and will not be a man with a broken heart if I fail to cash in on this race. It's all fun (forums,opinions and race).

No problem, my program spits out what it spits out, I have no control over it.

I've tried hard to make a case for Orb since getting the data file for Saturday, but no matter where I look he just doesn't figure anywhere, The only thing I can find in his favor, other a P running style, is that he has the highest FR2 velocity, but his FR1 and FR3 velocities still put him back of the others. As I've said several times over the last week or two, this is the Derby, there's no other race like it in the US, so we just don't have a lot of races we can compare to try to get a handle on what these horses will do.

When it's all said and done, all we can do is take our shots and hope we get lucky, at a good price.

[JJMartin]

yr.---odds---rank
2012 15.3---9
2011 20.9---11
2010 8------2
2009 50.6---17
2008 2.4----1
2007 4.9----1
2006 6.1----2
2005 50.3---14
2004 4.1----1
2003 12.8---7
2002 20.5---9

fav finish pos:
2012 2
2011 8
2010 6
2009 18
2008 1
2007 1
2006 7
2005 7
2004 1
2003 2
2002 7

[BlueChip@DRF]

The Kiss of Death just made Goldencents his top pick.

[Midnight Cruiser]

The Kiss of Death just made Goldencents his top pick.


who dat?

[PICSIX]

who dat?

Andy Beyer

[dastar]

Agree with BlueChip

[dastar]

Well, I got it figured out...

Horse #17 Will Take Charge is a sure winner!

Last raced 49 days ago and I was born in '49...

Fun thread, definitely will put a few bucks on #17... Just love when something never happened before and the announcer says... "For the first time in Derby History......"

[dastar]

For what it's worth, the last 2 winners in the KD were morning lines 12 to 1... Guess the only horse this Derby 12 to 1? Normandy Invasion.

I got my KEY horse for exactas... Has run 1 or 2, doesn't he?

[andicap]

The Wood Memorial trend, IMHO, is a valid one due to the differing nature of the two races. At 9F on a track that can hold 2-turn speed, the Wood is often an "E" or "EP" horse's race to lose.

This is a fun thread but remember when favorites were losing for all those years -- then hit 3 of the next 5.

Another problem with the recent Derbys is all the sloppy tracks they have been run on. Some horses haven't been able to handle the surface, others have thrived.

In most cases, the sample sizes are just too small. Read Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise" and you'll see.

But having said that, I've tried to pick the Triple Crown winners using trends for the last 10 years with some success especially in the Belmont. Unfortunately, I thought I had a winning line of trends in the Derby -- I even hit a couple of races, including the Funny Cide exacta and Barbaro -- when the trends suddenly stopped working. Things change -- racing is a dynamic game.

Another problem: In some years, no horse met the model perfectly. Polytrack also helped kill the trend because much of it was paced based with a heavy emphasis on the last race and there were some funky paces at Keeneland and SA (when it was poly).

Will I give up? Hell no --- it's fun -- but I won't place a big wager based on them.

[BlueChip@DRF]

The Wood Memorial trend, IMHO, is a valid one due to the differing nature of the two races. At 9F on a track that can hold 2-turn speed, the Wood is often an "E" or "EP" horse's race to lose.

This is a fun thread but remember when favorites were losing for all those years -- then hit 3 of the next 5.

Another problem with the recent Derbys is all the sloppy tracks they have been run on. Some horses haven't been able to handle the surface, others have thrived.

In most cases, the sample sizes are just too small. Read Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise" and you'll see.

But having said that, I've tried to pick the Triple Crown winners using trends for the last 10 years with some success especially in the Belmont. Unfortunately, I thought I had a winning line of trends in the Derby -- I even hit a couple of races, including the Funny Cide exacta and Barbaro -- when the trends suddenly stopped working. Things change -- racing is a dynamic game.

Another problem: In some years, no horse met the model perfectly. Polytrack also helped kill the trend because much of it was paced based with a heavy emphasis on the last race and there were some funky paces at Keeneland and SA (when it was poly).

Will I give up? Hell no --- it's fun -- but I won't place a big wager based on them.


Although the sample sizes are small, there is a 6-year consecutive trend going on right now along with an 11-year consecutive trend/qualifier for the Derby winners. I'm waiting to see if this will make it 7 years in a row. Java's War is the only one in the field that fits the profile for the 6-year trend and 11-year qualifier.

[raybo]

In case you don't know, Brisnet is giving away, for free, the "PPs" data file for the Derby. First time they've done that, I think. But, I could be wrong.

[keithw84]

Although the sample sizes are small, there is a 6-year consecutive trend going on right now along with an 11-year consecutive trend/qualifier for the Derby winners. I'm waiting to see if this will make it 7 years in a row. Java's War is the only one in the field that fits the profile for the 6-year trend and 11-year qualifier.

So you're not sharing until after the Derby (if Java's War wins)?

[raybo]

If I was betting a single horse, that's who I'd hang my hat on I think.

[Cholly]

Here's a trend: since 2002, every 4th year has produced a winner paying over a hundred bucks; this is the 4th year since the Miner, which was the 4th year after Giacomo. I'm betting a spread of Golden Soul, Giant Finish, Lines of Battle, Falling Sky, & Frac Daddy.

Let it rain, let it rain, let it rain.