How would you pick a winner if your life depended on it?

[Longshot6977]

This could be a fun and interesting post and I look forward to the replies. Assume your life was threatened (or even an extraterrestrial being promised to destroy planet earth) if we didn’t pick the winner in a particular upcoming race. Doesn’t matter what race or what track etc and assume it was a perfect world with no cheating, race fixing etc. The only stipulation is the winner had to be picked a day before the race.

How would we collectively use our minds to pick the winner;what things would we need to do? Would we elect the best speed guys, breeding guys, pace guys etc to come up with the winner? We may even all handicap our own winner and put them into a box andcount the ‘votes’ to get the collective winner. Or we could hire the best handicappers in the world (remember, we need to save the planet from gettingdestroyed) and just use their input. Personally,I would let the best known handicappers in the world handicap the race and submit their chosen winner. Do you think the speed guys would win out, or the pace guys, etc if certain factors were used to select this winner?? Feel free to provide any input.

[traynor]

This could be a fun and interesting post and I look forward to the replies. Assume your life was threatened (or even an extraterrestrial being promised to destroy planet earth) if we didn’t pick the winner in a particular upcoming race. Doesn’t matter what race or what track etc and assume it was a perfect world with no cheating, race fixing etc. The only stipulation is the winner had to be picked a day before the race.

How would we collectively use our minds to pick the winner;what things would we need to do? Would we elect the best speed guys, breeding guys, pace guys etc to come up with the winner? We may even all handicap our own winner and put them into a box andcount the ‘votes’ to get the collective winner. Or we could hire the best handicappers in the world (remember, we need to save the planet from gettingdestroyed) and just use their input. Personally,I would let the best known handicappers in the world handicap the race and submit their chosen winner. Do you think the speed guys would win out, or the pace guys, etc if certain factors were used to select this winner?? Feel free to provide any input.

Fix the race.

[PhantomOnTour]

I'm sorry, but this is a ridiculous waste of time in my opinion

[Magister Ludi]

The "best known handicappers in the world" pick overlays - not winners. Bet on the favorite. Betting pools are good at picking winners but terrible at picking overlays.

An alternative is to buy several large win tickets on the horse that you want to win, one for each jockey in the race. You can figure out the rest. Have you ever seen a boat race?

[OCF]

[QUOTE=Magister Ludi]The "best known handicappers in the world" pick overlays - not winners. Bet on the favorite. Betting pools are good at picking winners but terrible at picking overlays. [QUOTE]

:ThmbUp: Damn you think well. Seriously.

[Greyfox]

Easy. Buy a ticket on every horse in a race and hope the race isn't cancelled.

[Aner]

Actually this is not too farfetched. Expressbet is running a promotion with the lottery type winner (picked by random amongst the participants) getting to bet $50,000 to win in the Preakness.

You can't pocket the $50,000. You must bet it on one horse to win. Talk about pressure. I've never made a bet over $100 in my life. Should I win the contest to pick, I'm only looking at the first 3 favorites to make my selection.

[shouldacoulda]

I would start with making funeral arrangements first.

[Pensacola Pete]

If the world were going to be destroyed unless I picked a winner, I'd go to Calder and talk to the jockeys there. They're good at making sure a horse wins.

[jerry-g]

Once you have your race tickets hold them in one hand
and in the other, hold on to your plane tickets.

[Longshot6977]

Fix the race.

No race fixing is allowed. Just handicapping.

[Longshot6977]

Easy. Buy a ticket on every horse in a race and hope the race isn't cancelled.

You have to submit the winner's name the day before; nothing to do with a ticket for every horse, just one winner to avoid being killed.

[Longshot6977]

The "best known handicappers in the world" pick overlays - not winners. Bet on the favorite. Betting pools are good at picking winners but terrible at picking overlays.

An alternative is to buy several large win tickets on the horse that you want to win, one for each jockey in the race. You can figure out the rest. Have you ever seen a boat race?

I agree about the best handicappers picking overlays, but the winner has to be selected the day before the race, therefore eliminating betting pools and overlay info. What would we do to actually handicap a winner the day before?

I was thinking we look at all betting angles and factors that have shown to select winners(regardless of value) that helped pick a winner.

[michiken]

I would put $2 on the horse I like the most to win and $10 to win on the rest of the field







:6::6::6: the number of the beast

[rubicon55]

I agree about the best handicappers picking overlays, but the winner has to be selected the day before the race, therefore eliminating betting pools and overlay info. What would we do to actually handicap a winner the day before?

I was thinking we look at all betting angles and factors that have shown to select winners(regardless of value) that helped pick a winner.

IMHO your question covers too many angles. If I were you and you are serious then I would go back and check earlier PA threads. Tons of useful and not so useful information buried there. The forum "Handicappers Corner" is a good place to start. Still not sure if this is a legit quesiton. There are no "magic bullets" in handicapping regardless of your stated outcome as you proposed.

[Greyfox]

You have to submit the winner's name the day before; nothing to do with a ticket for every horse, just one winner to avoid being killed.

Excuse me. Where did you say that in the original #1 Post on this thread?

[_______]

I'd send Tom Cruise into the future to watch the race and report back on the winner.

Then I'd send him back and leave him there. That guy bugs me.

And don't tell me I can't send people into the future. Once you postulate extraterrestrials I think it's safe to say that all doors are open.

[bigchump]

I think your question should have been:
"What's the best way to avoid going home broke?"
Any monkey can pick a $4 horse.

[BlueChip@DRF]

This could be a fun and interesting post and I look forward to the replies. Assume your life was threatened (or even an extraterrestrial being promised to destroy planet earth) if we didn’t pick the winner in a particular upcoming race. Doesn’t matter what race or what track etc and assume it was a perfect world with no cheating, race fixing etc. The only stipulation is the winner had to be picked a day before the race.

How would we collectively use our minds to pick the winner;what things would we need to do? Would we elect the best speed guys, breeding guys, pace guys etc to come up with the winner? We may even all handicap our own winner and put them into a box andcount the ‘votes’ to get the collective winner. Or we could hire the best handicappers in the world (remember, we need to save the planet from gettingdestroyed) and just use their input. Personally,I would let the best known handicappers in the world handicap the race and submit their chosen winner. Do you think the speed guys would win out, or the pace guys, etc if certain factors were used to select this winner?? Feel free to provide any input.

Just kill me now.

[thaskalos]

This could be a fun and interesting post and I look forward to the replies. Assume your life was threatened (or even an extraterrestrial being promised to destroy planet earth) if we didn’t pick the winner in a particular upcoming race. Doesn’t matter what race or what track etc and assume it was a perfect world with no cheating, race fixing etc. The only stipulation is the winner had to be picked a day before the race.

How would we collectively use our minds to pick the winner;what things would we need to do? Would we elect the best speed guys, breeding guys, pace guys etc to come up with the winner? We may even all handicap our own winner and put them into a box andcount the ‘votes’ to get the collective winner. Or we could hire the best handicappers in the world (remember, we need to save the planet from gettingdestroyed) and just use their input. Personally,I would let the best known handicappers in the world handicap the race and submit their chosen winner. Do you think the speed guys would win out, or the pace guys, etc if certain factors were used to select this winner?? Feel free to provide any input.

No matter how you handicap a given race, you are guaranteed to pick a loser at least 67% of the time...assuming that a normal-sized field is involved.

That's why it's not smart for a player to get excited about his chances of beating any one particular race.

[Twenty Seven]

No matter how you handicap a given race, you are guaranteed to pick a loser at least 67% of the time...assuming that a normal-sized field is involved.

That's why it's not smart for a player to get excited about his chances of beating any one particular race.

Ahhh, but he said any race. Surely among 20 or so tracks (x 9 races per track), one could find at least one 1/5 or 2/5 shot. The best of the lowest odds-on would get my pick.

Then again, I like the invisible guy's Tom Cruise option. The sending him into the future part without possible recall, that is.

[VeryOldMan]

Once you have your race tickets hold them in one hand
and in the other, hold on to your plane tickets.
Now that OP has clarified it - hold your wager on the favorite in one hand and your 9mm in the other.

[myhorse1]

Easy. Buy a ticket on every horse in a race and hope the race isn't cancelled.


1. since you did not say you could not bet on more then one horse i think the above is the only answer.

2. if this is not enough i would pick the probable morning line favorite and tell each jockey not on this horse the situation and tell them from the start they are to stay at least 100 yards behind the horse i picked and i would make them an offer they cannot refuse(a la corleone).

3.since this is the fate of the earth and my life i would have the military's most accurate and deadly shooters shoot and STOP any horse that came less then a hundred yards from my picked horse.

4. if my horse decided not to run or my horse fell or could not make to the finish line the military would take out all the other horses in the race.

5.remember the fate of the earth depends on this.

this is what happens when you have to deal with extraterrestrials.

[Longshot6977]

Excuse me. Where did you say that in the original #1 Post on this thread?

".....with no cheating, race fixing etc. The only stipulation is the winner had to be picked a day before the race."


It's in the 1st paragraph.

[therussmeister]

What happens if your selection is scratched? Are we all in for it?

[myhorse1]

betting on every horse in the race is neither cheating or race fixing.

[Stillriledup]

I would do one of THESE 7 things.

1) Wait until Bob Baffert had 2 or more first time starters in a race and i would select the longer price of the 2.

2) Wait until Stillriledup posts at PA that he has a 'special' horse, move to Europe, sign up for Betfair, bet against SRU's special horse the next time it runs, close out Betfair account, move back to USA.

3) Bet Spicer Cub next time he runs because everyone needs to believe in miracles.

4) Bet the next Randi Persaud claim if a) it is claimed from a top trainer B) its 20-1 or higher and c) if its back in 24 hours or less.

5) Bet on the Next Todd Pletcher horse who runs at Churchill......because, he's been SO "on fire" in recent times there. :D

6) Next time the 8 year old handicapper shows up as a guest analyst on TVG, bet on his best bet.

7) Stand behind the guy who uses the open window to bet single/single/single/single all all in the Santa Anita pick 6s and bet the winner after the race has been run. Because when your life depends on it, head for that open window! :D

[traynor]

No race fixing is allowed. Just handicapping.

When survival is in question, rules and niceties don't apply. I'm sure that--given their exposure to such behavior by others at relatively frequent intervals--an astute horseplayer would find a way to cheat. It is all a matter of priority--someone (some thing) is threatening one's life, and possibly the lives of everyone on the planet. That is not the time to be mulling over the various theories of Beyer, Quirin, Quinn, et al, trying to decide what to do. "What to do" is quite clear--eliminate the threat, in one manner or another.

http://cdn.twentytwowords.com/wp-content/uploads/Painting-of-early-Nordic-Skiing.jpg

[Capper Al]

I would look for an under even money favorite which is also my pick and BRIS' prime number top pick in a predicable race condition. In real life, I'd pass on this race or bet against the favorite if there was a long shot that I liked.

[bob60566]

Throw in the towel. :)

[Rise Over Run]

Is Red Boarding allowed when your life depends on it? :lol: If so, my play was Barzini in the finale at Aqueduct yesterday. He looked unbeatable on paper against those clowns, and ran like it.

[TurfRuler]

How comic book. Joel knew that Krypton was going to be destroyed by the red sun. No one believed him. No matter what I pick in a horse race the results are highly unpredictable and I would not take the bet to pick a winner in any one race of the day.

[therussmeister]

Throw in the towel. :)
Which race is he entered in?

[thespaah]

This could be a fun and interesting post and I look forward to the replies. Assume your life was threatened (or even an extraterrestrial being promised to destroy planet earth) if we didn’t pick the winner in a particular upcoming race. Doesn’t matter what race or what track etc and assume it was a perfect world with no cheating, race fixing etc. The only stipulation is the winner had to be picked a day before the race.

How would we collectively use our minds to pick the winner;what things would we need to do? Would we elect the best speed guys, breeding guys, pace guys etc to come up with the winner? We may even all handicap our own winner and put them into a box andcount the ‘votes’ to get the collective winner. Or we could hire the best handicappers in the world (remember, we need to save the planet from gettingdestroyed) and just use their input. Personally,I would let the best known handicappers in the world handicap the race and submit their chosen winner. Do you think the speed guys would win out, or the pace guys, etc if certain factors were used to select this winner?? Feel free to provide any input.
Hire the guy who ran in front of Artax at Pimlico...

[thespaah]

You have to submit the winner's name the day before; nothing to do with a ticket for every horse, just one winner to avoid being killed.
Ok...Option 1. Hope the firing squad misses....Or the union guy says to the firing squad "go on strike"...
Option 2....take the black pill.

[Stillriledup]

Hire the guy who ran in front of Artax at Pimlico...

Lee something or other.

Wonder how ole Lee is doing these days? :D

[Stillriledup]

Is Red Boarding allowed when your life depends on it? :lol: If so, my play was Barzini in the finale at Aqueduct yesterday. He looked unbeatable on paper against those clowns, and ran like it.

:D

Its allowed and yeah, that was a joke of a field...you dont get free money too often in life, gotta grab it when you can, you know? :ThmbUp:

[johnhannibalsmith]

How would I be killed if I was wrong?

[Magister Ludi]

How would I be killed if I was wrong?

vanned off

[Rise Over Run]

Which race is he entered in?
The finale at Euthanasia Downs.

[raybo]

Pick a race that has a horse with a 10 point or higher Bris Prime Power rating edge and hope he/she doesn't scratch.

[Dony55]

BJJW no its not a blow job, its BIAS, JUICE, JOCKEY and Workout.