Mr. Trifecta's Maywood Park Picks 4/12/13

[precisionk]

Keeping with the method tonight. Let's see how it goes!


R1: #1-Bruener-6/5 TML......Exacta box 1,3

R2: #5-Revere Hanover-7/5 TML......Exacta Box 5,2

R3: #3-All Dune-8/5 TML......Exacta box 3,6

R4: #3-Huga Yankee-3/1 TML......Exacta box 3,5 Mr. Trifecta's Pick of the Night!

R5: #5-Alequash Hotspur-2/1 TML......Exacta box 5,2

R6: #7-Just Bcuz Ican-7/5 TML......Exacta box 7,4

R7: #2-Five Cougars A-4/5 TML.....Exacta box 2,1

R8: #6-Cruize-Commander-6/1 TML......Exacta box 6,3 Mr. Trifecta's Longshot of the Night!

R9: #7-Anescape N-7/2 TML......Exacta box 7,6

R10: #2-Yippy-2/1 TML......Exacta box 2,4

R11: #3-Windsun Monetcarlo-8/5 TML......Exacta box 3,6 Pick-4 3,5,6 w 1 w 1,5,7 w 1,2,3 - $27

R12: #1-Raging Cam-3/5 TML......Exacta box 1,6 Mr. Trifecta's Lock of the Night!

R13: #5-The Riddler-3/1 TML......Exacta box 5,1

R14: #2-Bc's Bad Cat-8/5 TML......Exacta box 2,3

[precisionk]

Longshot of the Night lost by a nose!! UGH!


R8: 2,6,7 Place $7.60....$4.80

[precisionk]

Fun fact of the night. The only races in which I choose three horses were in my pick 4 ticket obviously. All three were trifectas.

$1 trifecta box on each of my only three horse picks would have won you:


$263.90

[precisionk]

Disappointing night, fairly chalky.

Results:

R1: 1,6,5 Win $4.00....$2.80....$2.40 Non-bet

R2: 1,5,6 Place $3.40....$2.60

R3: 1,7,3 Show $3.40

R4: 5,6,3 Show $4.80

R5: Scratched

R6: Out

R7: 2,4,5 Win $3.40....$2.20....$2.10 Non-bet

R8: 2,6,7 Place $7.60....$4.80

R9: Out

R10: Out Non-bet No Exacta due to scratch

R11: 3,5,6 Win $3.40....$2.60....$2.40 Non-bet

R12: 4,1,9 Place $2.10....$2.10

R13: 7,1,5 Show $3.60

R14: 2,3,1 Win $4.40....$2.60....$2.10 $1 COLD Exacta box 2,3......$8.30 Non-bet

All Races: Win Rate 29%, Board Hit 71%, Wagered $50, Returned $23.50, ROI -53%
Odds Line: Win Rate 0%, Board Hit 75%, Wagered $32, Returned $0, ROI -100%

[traynor]

Two days of selections is a pretty small sample to reach any conclusions, but it seems you are picking solid choices for win. However, those choices are fairly conspicuous. That indicates the arbitrary moving of a second or third choice into the top position because of perceived value in betting is the basis for your longer priced win selections (rather than your selection process). You can use that information, because it is not the win selections that have the value--it is the second and third choices.

Because the win frequency of second and third choices is considerably less than top choices, overall ROI suffers. If your selection process continues to pick chalky winners, it should be fairly obvious that your best returns are not in the top pick for win area, but rather in the second and third choices mixed in with the top choice (usually the crowd favorite) in boxed wagers.

Given your selection method, you may do better by ignoring win bets completely. That is, if your single selection top picks do not return a profit, they are no more than a distraction and drain on resources--you may do better by ignoring win bets and concentrating on boxed exactas and boxed trifectas.

That was the purpose of suggesting you focus (at least temporarily) on single choices for win--to see if your selection method picked entries that were other than obvious choices that most bettors easily recognize. If the last couple of days is representative (it may not be) it would seem your selection strength is in the "support group"--the second and third choices, rather than the win selections.

If that is the case, rather than "ranking" arbitrarily based on perceived value, it might be useful to make selections specifically for boxing, without rank ordering them. You have access to far more of your previous selections than I do, so you should be able to determine fairly easily if your top ranked selections have been profiable to win overall. If not, it may be easier to focus on your strengths rather than trying to pick single choices for win betting.

[precisionk]

Two days of selections is a pretty small sample to reach any conclusions, but it seems you are picking solid choices for win. However, those choices are fairly conspicuous. That indicates the arbitrary moving of a second or third choice into the top position because of perceived value in betting is the basis for your longer priced win selections (rather than your selection process). You can use that information, because it is not the win selections that have the value--it is the second and third choices.

Because the win frequency of second and third choices is considerably less than top choices, overall ROI suffers. If your selection process continues to pick chalky winners, it should be fairly obvious that your best returns are not in the top pick for win area, but rather in the second and third choices mixed in with the top choice (usually the crowd favorite) in boxed wagers.

Given your selection method, you may do better by ignoring win bets completely. That is, if your single selection top picks do not return a profit, they are no more than a distraction and drain on resources--you may do better by ignoring win bets and concentrating on boxed exactas and boxed trifectas.

That was the purpose of suggesting you focus (at least temporarily) on single choices for win--to see if your selection method picked entries that were other than obvious choices that most bettors easily recognize. If the last couple of days is representative (it may not be) it would seem your selection strength is in the "support group"--the second and third choices, rather than the win selections.

If that is the case, rather than "ranking" arbitrarily based on perceived value, it might be useful to make selections specifically for boxing, without rank ordering them. You have access to far more of your previous selections than I do, so you should be able to determine fairly easily if your top ranked selections have been profiable to win overall. If not, it may be easier to focus on your strengths rather than trying to pick single choices for win betting.

Food for thought for sure. I am going to stick with the win/exacta entries at least for the weekend to see what happens. Last night was edged out of some nice wins due to drivers thinking they had the race won.

I do think my biggest strength is be able to envision who is going to be there at the wire. It's very weird how I can consistently pick the 2nd place more so then I feel I can consistently pick the winner. :confused: