giving tips on the board

[chadk66]

since I'm new to the board I have to ask. is it ok to give betting tips on this site. as in, my brother has a horse in on saturday that will run well. ok to inform?

[cj]

since I'm new to the board I have to ask. is it ok to give betting tips on this site. as in, my brother has a horse in on saturday that will run well. ok to inform?

Sure, why not? I'd say if you are going to give details, put it here in handicapping. Otherwise, use the selections forum.

[pondman]

since I'm new to the board I have to ask. is it ok to give betting tips on this site. as in, my brother has a horse in on saturday that will run well. ok to inform?

You might want to hint as to your methodology. Therefore people have a reasonable understanding of your play.

[chadk66]

ok cool. my brothers horse is in the 6th at lone star on sat. she is coming off a maiden win at sam houston. the race was originally written for 7.5 on the turf but is now on the main track at a mile. this is the third start after a layoff. she improved both races after the layoff. further improvement is expected this out, she has been training extremely well. seems to have figured it out and likes it. my brother claims the family was late bloomers and that this filly is just starting to get it together. we're both pretty confident that she'll run top two without a bad trip. she needs some pace and there appears to be plenty of that. the horse is Alphabets Tuff Gal

[cj]

This should be interesting, the inside info vs the handicapper. I don't think that horse has a prayer based on my figures. She has never run a race that will be remotely competitive with the horses that are contenders.

I'm not knocking your post, please don't take it that way. I'm just giving my honest assessment as a bettor.

[davew]

cj, that is not really fair without saying which horses are competitors that should be ahead of Alphabets Tuff Gal at the wire...

[cj]

cj, that is not really fair without saying which horses are competitors that should be ahead of Alphabets Tuff Gal at the wire...

Not fair? Are you serious? I looked at the race for about 20 seconds focusing on that horse. She is one of, or the, slowest in the field in my opinion.

[the little guy]

The horse isn't completely impossible, though she needs every turf horse not to show up on dirt ( possible ) and every sprinter not to stretch out, and even then it may not be easy.

Given that of her three siblings, two won one race in 20 or more starts, I don't think the " family were late bloomers " theory holds however.

[pondman]

I focus on maidens repeating. I often play the slowest horse in the field. However, this one doesn't fit for me. It's a rider issue for me. Is this the morning rider? Plus there wasn't a sandbag on the front end of the last.

[Stillriledup]

Not fair? Are you serious? I looked at the race for about 20 seconds focusing on that horse. She is one of, or the, slowest in the field in my opinion.

Um, you said "handicapper vs inside info". Well, the inside info released a specific selection.......and you basically said "box the field and toss out the OP's pick"

Is that your recommended play? Or, are you going to take credit for 'picking the winner' if the OP's horse is up the track?

Im looking for a specific recommended bet from you, do you have one?

[Ocala Mike]

... further improvement is expected this out, she has been training extremely well. seems to have figured it out and likes it.



This guy comes on the board cold and posts this out of the blue. Horse comes into the race with "bad paper" for the guys who make figures. Your move; what I love about this game!

[cj]

Um, you said "handicapper vs inside info". Well, the inside info released a specific selection.......and you basically said "box the field and toss out the OP's pick"

Is that your recommended play? Or, are you going to take credit for 'picking the winner' if the OP's horse is up the track?

Im looking for a specific recommended bet from you, do you have one?

I already said I looked at the race for 20 seconds. I've given out tons of selections lately, check the contests.

[Stillriledup]

I already said I looked at the race for 20 seconds. I've given out tons of selections lately, check the contests.

I will.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I will.

Somebody assesses a horse mentioned by another person and you demand selections from this poster and are going to check his background of recent picks.Man.You are a sick individual and you need help.As a fellow player,this is very disturbing for me!:cool:

[VeryOldMan]

This guy comes on the board cold and posts this out of the blue. Horse comes into the race with "bad paper" for the guys who make figures. Your move; what I love about this game!

Amen!

And what's with the low blows on cj? He simply observed that the underlying horse doesn't look good on paper and made a point of saying that it could be an interesting case study of inside information/intent versus handicappers. Seemed unobjectionable to me - is there some sort of history here that I'm too much of a noob to this board to know?

[traynor]

I knew a guy once who made a lot of money for me. If I picked a horse, mentioned that selection to him (discreetly), and his response was a derisive sneer in conjunction with "That horse has no chance!"--I would bet it with both hands. Made some pretty decent scores that way. I was young and foolish. Life was easier then.

Now, of course, I don't listen to anyone else, regardless of whether the advice is for or against. Life is not as easy as it once was, but it is definitely more interesting.

[iceknight]

This should be interesting, the inside info vs the handicapper. I don't think that horse has a prayer based on my figures. She has never run a race that will be remotely competitive with the horses that are contenders.

I'm not knocking your post, please don't take it that way. I'm just giving my honest assessment as a bettor. Just mention your contenders here and it is that simple. thank you. Your contest selections and your record for last years is not easily available public knowledge like say Mott's stats on equibase.

Others, you need to chill out instead of circling the wagons. Past performance is usually indicative of future results, at least not at over 50% probability. When someone (like cj) uses phrases like "contenders", he might as well mention those. It is quite easy to short any horse, I mean, there are several others running and this one is nor rapid redux.

I am not really knocking on you as a person or even your selection ability. What I was curious is in hearing who the contenders are instead of just hearing about some black box figures.

[HoofedInTheChest]

I will.

So, what did you find? :lol:

It's safe to say that cj has his sh*t together, you of all people should know this by now.

Lonestar Race 6

:5: / :8:

[Stillriledup]

So, what did you find? :lol:

It's safe to say that cj has his sh*t together, you of all people should know this by now.

Lonestar Race 6

:5: / :8:

Nothing. I wasnt sure where he was posting picks. When i have a chance later, i'll dig some more.

[HoofedInTheChest]

Here, ill make it easy for you.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1421915#post1421915

No other team has impressed me more than the M Team, they got hosed on the first weeks worth of points, and they still ended up getting a bye.

Sorry for going off topic.

[Ocala Mike]

How did this thread turn into a symposium about the handicapping acumen of certain posters on here? A relative newcomer, chadk66, has gone to the trouble of imparting some (possibly) useful information about a certain horse in a certain race this Saturday. He told us what his brother told him without ever mentioning the word handicapping and seemingly without regard for the competition in the race other than to say the horse will get some pace to run at. I'm more interested in chadk66's motivation to post this than I am in figuring out who's the best handicapper at PA.

[traynor]

How did this thread turn into a symposium about the handicapping acumen of certain posters on here? A relative newcomer, chadk66, has gone to the trouble of imparting some (possibly) useful information about a certain horse in a certain race this Saturday. He told us what his brother told him without ever mentioning the word handicapping and seemingly without regard for the competition in the race other than to say the horse will get some pace to run at. I'm more interested in chadk66's motivation to post this than I am in figuring out who's the best handicapper at PA.

I think it is a great example of the fact that there is more to horse racing than just numbers. That is in no way intended to denigrate the efforts or expertise of the number crunchers. It is to say that there are other factors involved. Some of the most profitable wagers I have ever made were on horses that "didn't figure."

As for motivation, I dunno. That reminds me--is Mike Warren still around?

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think it's cool Chad took the time to do so.No matter what happens.The altruistic nature is what separates us from being pure animals functioning off instinct and our own good.I dig it.

[thaskalos]

Some of the most profitable wagers I have ever made were on horses that "didn't figure."

And let's not forget all those times when we have been BEATEN by horses that "didn't figure"...

[Ocala Mike]

Basically agee with CincyHorseplayer. I don't expect to play the race as Lone Star is pretty much off my radar, but I hope the filly outruns her odds for a 1 or 2 finish. I do note that it's the only FL-bred in the race (Proctor), so some local interest there, and the M'L guy has her 3rd choice.

[cj]

I think it is a great example of the fact that there is more to horse racing than just numbers. That is in no way intended to denigrate the efforts or expertise of the number crunchers. It is to say that there are other factors involved. Some of the most profitable wagers I have ever made were on horses that "didn't figure."

As for motivation, I dunno. That reminds me--is Mike Warren still around?

Yeah, because that is exactly what I meant. Get real people, I already said it was nothing more than my opinion of one horse, not the poster nor his post. My experience has always been that horsemen tend to focus too much on their own horses and not the competition. I think the thread starter already admitted the same in another thread.

This whole thing is ridiculous. I wish nothing but good luck to the horse. I hope he wins, because I know there is zero chance I'll be betting that race.

[VeryOldMan]

I think it's cool Chad took the time to do so.No matter what happens.The altruistic nature is what separates us from being pure animals functioning off instinct and our own good.I dig it.

This! He shows up and posts some very interesting information - he and a subsequent handicapper get pilloried for what appear to be good faith posts about the relationship between "insider" info versus what we see from the outside. Let's see how it plays out.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...This whole thing is ridiculous. ...

Quite an understatement. Kudos to stillriledup for creating a mess where there was nothing but a figures guy taking the counterpoint on one particular horse's chances.

[098poi]

I don't know this from experience but I have the impression that there is probably a lot of well intended good "inside information" that doesn't amount to much. I'm sure that there are a lot of horses that train well, look good and are in good health and owners, trainers, friends and relatives get overly excited or enthused and think today is going to be his day. For many I think today is not the day. I wish the original posters horse well on Saturday.

[traynor]

And let's not forget all those times when we have been BEATEN by horses that "didn't figure"...

And learn from them ... so that one can figure out horses that don't figure. I mean that literally. Bettors may be too quick to conclude that an entry lacking in their favored area of expertise (speed, class, pace, whatever) is "deficient." Before jumping to such conclusions, it might be useful to look critically at actual races (rather than numerical representations of races). It is often that decisions are made--usually by the top of the stretch--about who is and who is not going to compete in the final stages of the race. I think such decisions are often better examples of good sense and horsemanship than chicanery. I like number crunching, but I also like to watch races. Very, very carefully.

[Stillriledup]

Quite an understatement. Kudos to stillriledup for creating a mess where there was nothing but a figures guy taking the counterpoint on one particular horse's chances.

Huh?

How does a counterpoint do me any good if he's not going to offer an actual pick? USA doesnt have betfair where i can just bet against the OPs horse, i actually have to come up with something in order to profit.

I'd rather have the OP stay around and not get run off, he might have something juicy in the future but might refrain from posting it because he feels nobody appreciates him or his info. He didnt have to post privy stuff but he wants to try and fit in and feel like he's contributing.

If you want to 'counterpoint' its probably a good idea to have an actual opinion.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Huh?

How does a counterpoint do me any good if he's not going to offer an actual pick? USA doesnt have betfair where i can just bet against the OPs horse, i actually have to come up with something in order to profit.

I'd rather have the OP stay around and not get run off, he might have something juicy in the future but might refrain from posting it because he feels nobody appreciates him or his info. He didnt have to post privy stuff but he wants to try and fit in and feel like he's contributing.

If you want to 'counterpoint' its probably a good idea to have an actual opinion.

Why do you insist upon being dense and then doubling down on it when someone calls you out? I ignored it to avoid one of these go-rounds to nowhere land with you after the first few posts.

The guy says his brother, the owner, thinks the horse will run well because it is training well, has figured it out, sibs improved with experience, etc, etc...

CJ says, basically, based on his numbers, she's one of the slowest in the field and doesn't stack up well with the rest of the field.

This was never some sort of handicapping exhibition on a race at Lone Star, it was a tout on one specific horse. Chad's no dummy, he's a horseman, has solid stats as a trainer readily viewable at Equibase. CJ's a figures guy, highly regarded here and elsewhere I assume and has demonstrated an ability to rate horses effectively and even make some money doing it.

But you need his pick in this race in order for his opinion on the horse in question, the subject of the thread, in order for that opinion on the horse itself to have any merit?

GTFO with that silly shit.

GuyCh likes horseA in RaceZ. GuyCj says he doesn't like horseA in RaceZ.

GuyCh presents his reason for liking horseA in RaceZ. GuyCj presents his reason for not liking horseA in RaceZ.

Point, counterpoint. Simple.

You want a full race analysis on the race, oh well. Maybe you should look into buying his product if its that important to you.

[cj]

Why do you insist upon being dense and then doubling down on it when someone calls you out? I ignored it to avoid one of these go-rounds to nowhere land with you after the first few posts.

The guy says his brother, the owner, thinks the horse will run well because it is training well, has figured it out, sibs improved with experience, etc, etc...

CJ says, basically, based on his numbers, she's one of the slowest in the field and doesn't stack up well with the rest of the field.

This was never some sort of handicapping exhibition on a race at Lone Star, it was a tout on one specific horse. Chad's no dummy, he's a horseman, has solid stats as a trainer readily viewable at Equibase. CJ's a figures guy, highly regarded here and elsewhere I assume and has demonstrated an ability to rate horses effectively and even make some money doing it.

But you need his pick in this race in order for his opinion on the horse in question, the subject of the thread, in order for that opinion on the horse itself to have any merit?

GTFO with that silly shit.

GuyCh likes horseA in RaceZ. GuyCj says he doesn't like horseA in RaceZ.

GuyCh presents his reason for liking horseA in RaceZ. GuyCj presents his reason for not liking horseA in RaceZ.

Point, counterpoint. Simple.

You want a full race analysis on the race, oh well. Maybe you should look into buying his product if its that important to you.

Exactly, and now SRU won't be posting in this thread.

[cj]

And let's not forget all those times when we have been BEATEN by horses that "didn't figure"...

Yeah, but how many times are these types of horses beaten by those that "do figure"?

[PaceAdvantage]

I'd rather have the OP stay around and not get run offAnd here is where your faulty logic and clowning goes off the rails...nobody is getting run off...

[Stillriledup]

Why do you insist upon being dense and then doubling down on it when someone calls you out? I ignored it to avoid one of these go-rounds to nowhere land with you after the first few posts.

The guy says his brother, the owner, thinks the horse will run well because it is training well, has figured it out, sibs improved with experience, etc, etc...

CJ says, basically, based on his numbers, she's one of the slowest in the field and doesn't stack up well with the rest of the field.

This was never some sort of handicapping exhibition on a race at Lone Star, it was a tout on one specific horse. Chad's no dummy, he's a horseman, has solid stats as a trainer readily viewable at Equibase. CJ's a figures guy, highly regarded here and elsewhere I assume and has demonstrated an ability to rate horses effectively and even make some money doing it.

But you need his pick in this race in order for his opinion on the horse in question, the subject of the thread, in order for that opinion on the horse itself to have any merit?

GTFO with that silly shit.

GuyCh likes horseA in RaceZ. GuyCj says he doesn't like horseA in RaceZ.

GuyCh presents his reason for liking horseA in RaceZ. GuyCj presents his reason for not liking horseA in RaceZ.

Point, counterpoint. Simple.

You want a full race analysis on the race, oh well. Maybe you should look into buying his product if its that important to you.

I'm not sure why you singled me out when Dave W was the first one to call 'no fair' on CJ. Did that just slip your mind?

As far as his 'full race' analysis goes, if he's going to be critical of the OP's horse, is it unreasonable to ask who he actually likes to win or what his strategy to betting the race might be?

If its an unreasonable request, just say "its an unreasonable request". I didnt think that it was.

[appistappis]

can anyone here post the pp's for the race and we'll all have a look.....lone star is also off the radar in this neck of the woods.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I'm not sure why you singled me out when Dave W was the first one to call 'no fair' on CJ. Did that just slip your mind?

As far as his 'full race' analysis goes, if he's going to be critical of the OP's horse, is it unreasonable to ask who he actually likes to win or what his strategy to betting the race might be?

If its an unreasonable request, just say "its an unreasonable request". I didnt think that it was.

I singled you out for two reasons:

1) I love you.

2) Davew made the statement, CJ responded and that was that. You, on the other hand, have seemingly made it your mission to stir the pot for, what appears to me to be, no reason at all.

I'll be only minimally redundant in responding to the rest of it, since I think it's obvious that we've gone over the latter portion.

Chad likes his horse for "horseman-ey" reasons. That's great, I can relate and enjoy reading it, especially since I was stalled across from his brother's trainer at one point and I was interested to see that he was at Lone Star and had a horse for someone with connections here. But, there was no mention of how the horse compared to the rest of the field or anything like that.

As CJ stated, Chad had mentioned previously about the different ways that "horsemen" look at a horse in a race than does a "handicapper". CJ parlayed that exact conversation into a case in point here. This isn't terribly complex. He was making Chad's own point for him by pointing to the very rudimentary reality that as a figure handicapper, he saw the exact opposite.

It isn't a matter of being an "unreasonable request" - it's a "silly demand" in the context, and that's just how you have been presenting it.

[iceknight]

I'm not sure why you singled me out when Dave W was the first one to call 'no fair' on CJ. Did that just slip your mind?

As far as his 'full race' analysis goes, if he's going to be critical of the OP's horse, is it unreasonable to ask who he actually likes to win or what his strategy to betting the race might be?

If its an unreasonable request, just say "its an unreasonable request". I didnt think that it was. SRU, don't take it too personally. If they don't give their analysis after asking once and still keep trumpeting their blackbox figures or prior track record, it does nt help your time to continue presenting your counterpoint (aka arguing).

I would nt call you out here, although I think I did call you out on the Dubai payout time thread, where I felt you were wrong. here you, and the earlier guy were just asking for an analysis and didnt get one.

I feel some of this is maybe due to a ego issue (when you hear stuff like: 20 second analysis, figures from black box (which you have to pay to buy - actually i think it is free with some ADW -betptc I think?)) In any case, I believe that it makes sense to listen to experienced hands if they actually help with some analysis. If they are just handing opinions, just leave it that and wait till the race ends.

[cj]

SRU, don't take it too personally. If they don't give their analysis after asking once and still keep trumpeting their blackbox figures or prior track record, it does nt help your time to continue presenting your counterpoint (aka arguing).

I would nt call you out here, although I think I did call you out on the Dubai payout time thread, where I felt you were wrong. here you, and the earlier guy were just asking for an analysis and didnt get one.

I feel some of this is maybe due to a ego issue (when you hear stuff like: 20 second analysis, figures from black box (which you have to pay to buy - actually i think it is free with some ADW -betptc I think?)) In any case, I believe that it makes sense to listen to experienced hands if they actually help with some analysis. If they are just handing opinions, just leave it that and wait till the race ends.

Where did I ever mention black box? Nothing could be further from the truth with me. I never trumpeted anything here, nor do I ever.

[chadk66]

wow I never expected this post to turn into three pages lol. some very interesting banter to say the least. I love to see the different angles being pointed out. it shows you the horse industry and handicapping is a highly complex game and extremely unpredictable at times. As pointed out in this post by someone, I'm not a huge believer in speed ratings, etc. for determining how a horse will run. alot of times it certainly is but it's surely not the end all in the game. my honest point with this post was to simply try to help anybody on the board that may be betting lone star to use this horse. there comes a time for most horses that are of lower quality that the light just comes on. some it never happens for. the light seems to have come on for this horse. there's more to it than speed ratings. ever wonder how a horse suddenly jumps up and runs way better than it's forum predicts? it's not always drugs lol. this horse is set to vastly improve we feel (now watch her throw a clunker). I was honestly just hoping somebody could profit from my information that's all. she does have the pedigree to improve.

[davew]

Chad, the only horse I have higher is Cee Cee's Hot, but LoneStar does not work for my techniques very well.

Someone said your brother is owner, but I missed that part. Are they? or trainer, groom, exercise rider, breeder....

[chadk66]

brothers an owner. he and another guy from MN.

[raybo]

Well, I've got a black box and it says the 7, the horse in question has a bit of a shot. She is 1 of only 4 horses in the race that have a dirt route in their last 10 races. She ranks 5th in class, 4th in Prime Power, and 1 of 3 horses that were in peak condition in their last race, although I don't see the "improvement in the last 2" as the OP stated, except for finish position, but her numbers sucked pretty much in those 2 races. She has the right running style for this field, but so do a few others. 2 works at 4f or more since that last race, both works 1 of 1 and, not impressed by the times, really, although some trainers work horses slow rather than fast, so no opinion on the works.

All that being said, without knowing which of these will scratch, and the fact that several have no distance and/or surface history for this race, I'm with CJ, I wouldn't touch the race with your dollars. Plus, I wouldn't bet at Lone Star, or any other Texas track, if somebody drove me to the track and gave me money to bet with.

6/1 odds seem about right for this horse, considering everything we know about many of these horses. So, a win? No way, IMO. A place? Maybe, depending on what the early pace looks like after scratches tomorrow, I expect to see one or two.

I commend the OP for putting his info "out there". Takes some gumption, to do that. Do I take "inside info" into consideration, in my play? Absolutely not! I trust only in myself when, it comes to racing.

[Greyfox]

brothers an owner. he and another guy from MN.

I appreciate your good heartedness on this matter chadk66.

Had I been in your position, I might have given the "tip" without mentioning that it came from my brother.
That way you would have preserved some anonymity to your own identity which is respresented by an avatar.
Secondly, if some of us here seem sceptical of the horse's chances, it's because we know that, in general, tips from barns are usually not profitable.
The reason for that has been mentioned earlier. While a trainer knows his own horse, he doesn't necessarily know how the other contestants are faring.

At any rate, while I won't be betting your tip, I'll be pulling for your runner to do well.

All the best,

Greyfox

[098poi]

Well, I've got a black box and it says the 7, the horse in question has a bit of a shot. She is 1 of only 4 horses in the race that have a dirt route in their last 10 races. She ranks 5th in class, 4th in Prime Power, and 1 of 3 horses that were in peak condition in their last race, although I don't see the "improvement in the last 2" as the OP stated, except for finish position, but her numbers sucked pretty much in those 2 races. She has the right running style for this field, but so do a few others. 2 works at 4f or more since that last race, both works 1 of 1 and, not impressed by the times, really, although some trainers work horses slow rather than fast, so no opinion on the works.

All that being said, without knowing which of these will scratch, and the fact that several have no distance and/or surface history for this race, I'm with CJ, I wouldn't touch the race with your dollars. Plus, I wouldn't bet at Lone Star, or any other Texas track, if somebody drove me to the track and gave me money to bet with.

6/1 odds seem about right for this horse, considering everything we know about many of these horses. So, a win? No way, IMO. A place? Maybe, depending on what the early pace looks like after scratches tomorrow, I expect to see one or two.

I commend the OP for putting his info "out there". Takes some gumption, to do that. Do I take "inside info" into consideration, in my play? Absolutely not! I trust only in myself when, it comes to racing.

Please don't hold back, tell us how you really feel. :D

[Knowclew]

It takes a lot of courage to post a pick....or opinion on a race.
Different ways to analyze a race is what makes handicapping
exciting....isn't that what pari mutual wagering is all about????

Kudos to Chad...he not only gave the horse, but gave some very
legit reasons for liking him. Many people who have a rooting interest
in a horse think they will run well, but cannot put any substance behind it.

I hope he runs big...if he does, congrats to Chad. If not, no need for
any I told you so's. We ALL have had horses we "loved" for one reason or another, and had them run up the track.

[chadk66]

excellent points. I mentioned it was my brothers horse because I like to put all the cards on the table. My idea was to give everybody all the info I had and let them decide whether the information was useful to them. as some stated they put no stock in barn info which is their decision to make. when I trained I generally didn't give tips to people. my horses hit the board in over 50% of their races and good handicappers know that. I have given tips to people I knew on horses of mine that I flat out knew were going to win and that was probably only on a handful of races over six years. every great once in awhile as a trainer you just know nothings beating your horse in a given race.

[chadk66]

In all honesty I gave my brother some crap for even claiming this horse as a maiden. but he's a guy that just eats, sleeps and drinks digging into the inner depths of their breeding and trying to find a horse that has potential on the turf for whatever reason. I haven't like this horse since he claimed her. In fact I told him before the race where she broke her maiden that if she didn't beat those horses he better part company with her. She had a somewhat rough trip in that race and still ran well enough to win. I finally talked him into bringing her from farther off the pace and since doing that she has started to show improvement. The speed figures don't show it but I'm not a speed figures guy. A horses mental state plays a much larger role in their racing than most people realize. And her mentality of the game is about to bring her to a higher level of racing I think. At least it seems.

[Robert Goren]

I just watched a replay of the last race. The horse looked very good in that win. I can see why your bother is optimistic. Numbers don't always catch how good a horse that runs in that style is. I stuck a few bucks on it.

[Dahoss2002]

Since the thread went 4 pages, a small wager will be placed. Thanks Chad.

[Gapfire]

Gapfire Quickgap rankings for this race are 5-8-7-2. If this horse takes to this turf course, and doesn't regress of of the maiden score, she has a good chance for a top 2 placing.

[OCF]

there comes a time for most horses that are of lower quality that the light just comes on. some it never happens for. the light seems to have come on for this horse. there's more to it than speed ratings. ever wonder how a horse suddenly jumps up and runs way better than it's forum predicts? it's not always drugs lol.

Hi Chad, thanks for posting. As somebody who has spent next to no time on the backstretch, I value information from somebody who has lots of experience there.

I've heard the idea of "the light coming on" before and wondered exactly what it entailed. The horse decides to cooperate with the jockey? The horse comes to realize (whatever that means for a horse) that it's in a race? Those are just my weak guesses.

[chadk66]

it's off the turf

[Gapfire]

it's off the turf

Her lack of early foot becomes more of a concern now. I still think she can run well in this spot.

[chadk66]

I'll try to explain what this means. I'll use hunting dogs as an analogy since people are more familiar with dogs. Hunting dog breeders try to breed for bred in hunting ability. Which means they try to produce dogs that require little to no training. they are just born with the hunting instinct. With thoroughbreds they try to breed in running ability. Longer, faster more sound type characteristics. But sometimes doing that the "mental" ability is lost or shuffled back. Doesn't matter how fast or endurant a horse is if it doesn't have the mental capacity to be a race horse it's all for naught. Signs of horses that have these mental deficiencies are horses that are very nervous, wash out in the paddock or post parade. Pace in their stalls in the barn, don't eat because they're always nervous, run off or don't rate in a race, don't like to be in tight quarters in a race, etc. Some horses also are blessed with good natural speed or ability but for some reason never show you their top gear or speed while racing. you just know from breezing them in the morning that they have another gear and aren't giving it to you. It's like they're afraid to take that gear. Jockey's sometimes tell you when they come back that "man this horse has another gear but won't give it to me". It's like what Mike Smith said before riding Zenyatta before the BC Classic. He'd never been to the bottom of her yet. He knew if he needed to she could give him one more gear. And I think you saw it in the Classic. So when a "light" comes on for a horse it means they have over come some of these natural obstacles in their mental world. there is "running" which horses do naturally from predators, and there is "racing" which strangely some horses never learn to do. But when they do, you see sudden improvements to their form, speed ratings, etc.

[lamboguy]

ok cool. my brothers horse is in the 6th at lone star on sat. she is coming off a maiden win at sam houston. the race was originally written for 7.5 on the turf but is now on the main track at a mile. this is the third start after a layoff. she improved both races after the layoff. further improvement is expected this out, she has been training extremely well. seems to have figured it out and likes it. my brother claims the family was late bloomers and that this filly is just starting to get it together. we're both pretty confident that she'll run top two without a bad trip. she needs some pace and there appears to be plenty of that. the horse is Alphabets Tuff Galfor the heck of it, i just looked at your race. the way i see it horses #1 thru #4 have no chance to win, horse #8 looks like turf, leaving 3 horses. ALPHABETS TUFF GAL does not look like it came out of the toughest maiden race that she won. the other 2 horses are not killers either. from a gambling standpoint it just depends what the price will be on the board to invest in her.

good luck to your brother and his friends.

[Gapfire]

Our Quickgap figures are different than everyone else's. They show me that your brother's horse doesn't have to improve much to run well against this group.

[OCF]

I'll try to explain what this means. I'll use hunting dogs as an analogy since people are more familiar with dogs. Hunting dog breeders try to breed for bred in hunting ability. Which means they try to produce dogs that require little to no training. they are just born with the hunting instinct. With thoroughbreds they try to breed in running ability. Longer, faster more sound type characteristics. But sometimes doing that the "mental" ability is lost or shuffled back. Doesn't matter how fast or endurant a horse is if it doesn't have the mental capacity to be a race horse it's all for naught. Signs of horses that have these mental deficiencies are horses that are very nervous, wash out in the paddock or post parade. Pace in their stalls in the barn, don't eat because they're always nervous, run off or don't rate in a race, don't like to be in tight quarters in a race, etc. Some horses also are blessed with good natural speed or ability but for some reason never show you their top gear or speed while racing. you just know from breezing them in the morning that they have another gear and aren't giving it to you. It's like they're afraid to take that gear. Jockey's sometimes tell you when they come back that "man this horse has another gear but won't give it to me". It's like what Mike Smith said before riding Zenyatta before the BC Classic. He'd never been to the bottom of her yet. He knew if he needed to she could give him one more gear. And I think you saw it in the Classic. So when a "light" comes on for a horse it means they have over come some of these natural obstacles in their mental world. there is "running" which horses do naturally from predators, and there is "racing" which strangely some horses never learn to do. But when they do, you see sudden improvements to their form, speed ratings, etc.

Thanks Chad. As I think about it, it wouldn't seem to be generally natural to a horse to compete just for the sake of competing, which is what we're asking them to do, at least from their viewpoint. That doesn't mean some wouldn't do it anyway, and maybe those are the ones whose genes have been perpetuated through breeding? But just because we've tried to perpetuate those genes doesn't mean it's always successful, or at least immediately successful?

[raybo]

Please don't hold back, tell us how you really feel. :D

Don't get me started! :bang:

[feelup1963]

GOOD LUCK AND THANKS FOR YOUR INFORMATION!!! :ThmbUp:

[iwearpurple]

Many years ago, long before internet wagering, the owner of the liquor store where I bought the form, knew a horse owner quite well. He had a horse that ran poorly that day, showed nothing. That night when I went into the liquor store, the liquor store owner told me they knew what went wrong and to bet it the next time the horse ran.

The next time the horse ran, no equipment changes were made, so nothing was apparent as to any changes. The horse was 20-1 on the morning line (this was before Jon White was making the ML, so this was a real line), and a friend of mine and I each sent $10.00 to the track with a regular whom my friend knew. We were working so could not go. Well, the horse won, and paid over $50.00.

However, this regular claimed that he never made it to the track. To this day, we believe he made the wagers and pocked the money, claiming he never made it to the track. The point is that sometimes the connections of the horse are correct, although, I will also admit that most times they are overly optimistic.

Good luck Chadk66

[Fwizard]

good luck with your horse --I think the race is a crapshoot honestly---the :6: is the speed but I believe will fall apart...the fav is off a large layoff but trainer is 2/7 off layoffs....the :7: has a good of chance as any ...if someone put a gun to my head I would put win money on the :1: and :2:

[raybo]

Well, no scratches yet. As I said, there are many here who haven't run a dirt route, in the last 10 races. So, I will defer to the info I have for this race, that being, class, prime power, and form.

The 7, according to that data, can indeed hit the board. If , as the OP states, she does improve in form and/or "the light came on", at decent odds, 4/1 or higher I would say, then a bet to win would be in order. Here's a shot of that data (related to this field, bright green is very good, light green is good, and yellow is decent, the others would be tosses).

By the way, the Black Box would have 2, 4, 7 as win contenders, as they are the only horses with qualified races in their last 10.

[chadk66]

thanks guys. I think all the different takes on this race is very interesting. And as a guy who really never handicapped horses in depth it's been a very learning experience. When I was training I was pretty young and so caught up in the day to day work in the barn I never had the time or energy to pick races apart like this. It would have just given me a migrain lol. But cool info.

[JJMartin]

Well, no scratches yet. As I said, there are many here who haven't run a dirt route, in the last 10 races. So, I will defer to the info I have for this race, that being, class, prime power, and form.

The 7, according to that data, can indeed hit the board. If , as the OP states, she does improve in form and/or "the light came on", at decent odds, 4/1 or higher I would say, then a bet to win would be in order. Here's a shot of that data (related to this field, bright green is very good, light green is good, and yellow is decent, the others would be tosses).

By the way, the Black Box would have 2, 4, 7 as win contenders, as they are the only horses with qualified races in their last 10.

My program has 7 and 4 as both possible but not overly strong contenders, no other horses qualify

[JJMartin]

8 K D Queen $5.80 $3.80 $2.60
3 Breezy Knowl $11.40 $4.80
5 Cee Cee's Hot $2.90

[cj]

You're welcome SRU.

[chadk66]

perfect trip and showed no interest. sorry

[cj]

perfect trip and showed no interest. sorry

No reason to apologize. I'm just messing with SRU. It was a good post. The result of one race rarely means much of anything when it comes to betting.

[thaskalos]

perfect trip and showed no interest. sorry
Not only was it a good post...but you also handled yourself with class throughout.

Your motive here was honorable...and that's what counts.

[green80]

All this response, we should start a new thread. When you have a horse running, post your comment, and let the guys on the board tell you what kind of shot you have.

[Ocala Mike]

That was an ugly-paced race. 25.27, 49.92, 1:15.86 when you're needing pace to run at is a recipe for a "no-go" especially when you're sitting last hoping to pick up dead pieces on the rail (there was nothing to pick up).

I would be interested in this horse running back on the turf and (yes), even shortening up. Rider change might be in the cards as well.

Figure guys get a gold star for today but, as we all know, every race and every day is different.

Thanks, chadk66.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by chadk66
perfect trip and showed no interest. sorry

Not at all!
Hey, if we were sitting in a bar quaffing beers, wouldn't we talk about that?
We talk here, too.
And you got us talking in this thread! :D

[chadk66]

yea that would be a good angle to look at also.

[pondman]

yea that would be a good angle to look at also.

Every race is a learning experience. From an intra track standpoint this horse horse had a 9% chance. From a repeat at this level and what I'd need to see, it had about a 14% chance. I believe in sitting out until you are up above 40% before wagering, and you need to get +5-1. This type of horse can win, and at the right track could have done it. So don't place it in your memory as a loss, because in racing you'll encounter a similiar problem, except for slight variations, and the horse will make you money.

[Some_One]

Horses best effort was off a layoff, looks a like a sore tired horse who should get the 3 months off in between starts

[chadk66]

haha, interesting take. what that means to me is that they need to get her way more cranked up to race. she was no doubt fired up after the layoff. she's a very quiet filly, probably too quiet. which is what you like most of the time. but maybe they need to adjust her training going up to a race to get her on the muscle more.

[Ocala Mike]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. I'd be looking to enter her for turf only next time (and probably regretting that the race came off the grass to begin with).

[raybo]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. I'd be looking to enter her for turf only next time (and probably regretting that the race came off the grass to begin with).

That's kinda what I was thinking. And, her form numbers, in her last 3 races, went from 4 to 1, which means she may have peaked in her last race, and due for a rest. Unless she was a young horse, under 4yo, I would have rested her a bit longer.

[davew]

Every race is a learning experience. From an intra track standpoint this horse horse had a 9% chance. From a repeat at this level and what I'd need to see, it had about a 14% chance. I believe in sitting out until you are up above 40% before wagering, and you need to get +5-1. This type of horse can win, and at the right track could have done it. So don't place it in your memory as a loss, because in racing you'll encounter a similiar problem, except for slight variations, and the horse will make you money.

40% over 5/1? you must sit out alot - how many qualifiers a week do you get?

[senortout]

Shouldn't the horse in question have NATURALLY been closer on the pace to those dawdling fractions?

ie: toss this race...next race on card was an alw. at same distance a couple seconds faster, which is a lot on a track listed as fast.

[chadk66]

I know absolutely nothing about lone star. I haven't looked at all to see what speeds are there on a regular basis. But yes the time was horrible but without knowing the track it's hard to say if it's slow or horrible slow lol

[raybo]

I know absolutely nothing about lone star. I haven't looked at all to see what speeds are there on a regular basis. But yes the time was horrible but without knowing the track it's hard to say if it's slow or horrible slow lol

I don't play Texas tracks anymore so I don't know the present speed on these tracks anymore, but I do know in the past Lone Star was slightly slower than Houston, if that helps you.

[green80]

Ok, 9th at Lonestar #13 King Coydoede, been training much better lately. It may hit the board in this weak field and pay a ton.

[raybo]

Ok, 9th at Lonestar #13 King Coydoede, been training much better lately. It may hit the board in this weak field and pay a ton.

Is that inside info, or just your opinion? No offense but the thread is about info not available to the public, I believe.

[green80]

inside info, no way you would bet this horse looking at the form.

[green80]

no offense, but I thought that would have been obvious if you took a look.

[raybo]

no offense, but I thought that would have been obvious if you took a look.

I would have to know it is inside info before looking at the race, because I don't play LS, I'm boycotting all Texas tracks due to the internet wagering laws.

If your info comes from watching those works live, or one of the connections told you that, then I'll take a look, otherwise I have to assume you're going by public data, and it's just your opinion that the works were good. And, to know they were good you would have to know what makes them good, like you have a personal source of info, either yourself or one of the connections.

[green80]

I keep my horses in the same barn as this horse. Watch him everyday. Looks better and working better than I have ever seen him. Just throwing in my opinion since he should be over the m/l 30/1. Thats all I know.

[pondman]

40% over 5/1? you must sit out alot - how many qualifiers a week do you get?

I scrutinize maiden winners, along with shippers. That's what I do-- exclusively-- without ratings. There's enough play in both categories to keep filling McDonald's bags full of money weekly. The OP's horse fit neither. Nothing personal, just better places to put money. I interjected my statement because there are reason other than speed ratings for not wagering. This type of horse often fires-- even when it is slow. So don't stop giving this type a horse a look.

[green80]

I understand the boycott on Texas tracks, but it's the closest place to run a 6yo maiden.

[raybo]

I keep my horses in the same barn as this horse. Watch him everyday. Looks better and working better than I have ever seen him. Just throwing in my opinion since he should be over the m/l 30/1. Thats all I know.

Ok, that's what I was looking for, you definitely have some info on the horse that the public doesn't.

[raybo]

I understand the boycott on Texas tracks, but it's the closest place to run a 6yo maiden.

And, I understand your circumstance too, now that I know you're an owner. I didn't know that before. I can't blame you for running your horses close to home, I would do the same if I raced horses, unless of course, I had the money to ship them to another state, and cared about the Texas players, then I'd have to join the boycott of Texas tracks and do my business elsewhere. Without Texas residents' internet dollars, I'd find a state that doesn't punish it's residents because they live too far from the track to justify the 100 mile trip, both ways, or more, almost every day.

[Ocala Mike]

Not a bad run on that :13: horse at 75/1; forwardly placed early, and beat a few of them home.

[green80]

Well, we gave it a shot. Got another one in Wed at Evd. 2nd race #11Bonnie's Judge. Should be one of the longest shots in the field. Throw out the last 2 at DeD where she didn't like the track, and you may be able to make a case for her on the turf. It's a tough field, but we'll see what happens.

[comet52]

Don't feel too bad about the Lonestar 6th. I had the 10 in the 10th and he would have paid about 60 bucks but the race was declared no contest due to a gate malfunction. One of the worst bad beats I've taken in a long time.

[appistappis]

from a handicapping prospective, bonnies judge devoid of early speed, raced wide in the back of the pack and passed tired horses to run 8th.

we'll see.

[appistappis]

actually showed a bit more life than i thought and ran 7th.

[green80]

was my first out with her. She backed up when in a crowded on the rail, improved position when open then backed out when in horses again. We will make some changes and try again. Overall not disappointed, just beaten 4.5 lengths for a 47/1 shot.

[raybo]

was my first out with her. She backed up when in a crowded on the rail, improved position when open then backed out when in horses again. We will make some changes and try again. Overall not disappointed, just beaten 4.5 lengths for a 47/1 shot.

Sounds like she needs some work around other horses. As you say, not bad for a 47/1! Once she gets used to running in traffic she might do well for you.

[green80]

Going to send out Skint Back in the 5th at Evd tomorrow. Horse has speed and will see how he stacks up with this speedy Evd bunch. Next to longest shot in the field at m/l 12/1. Going to see if he can run with these.

[raybo]

Going to send out Skint Back in the 5th at Evd tomorrow. Horse has speed and will see how he stacks up with this speedy Evd bunch. Next to longest shot in the field at m/l 12/1. Going to see if he can run with these.

Good deal! I'm about to kick off my EvD play. Will probably wait a week or 2 and let the horses and jocks get settled in.

[green80]

the dirt track is lightning fast. Look at the times last night. The turf is as deep as I have ever seen one. Up to your knees, again it plays very slow, look at the fractions on the turf race.

[PICSIX]

I don't like to tout my horses, so I won't. I will, however, state why I feel Vanquisher will run much improved in today's 9th at Calder.

First, he is training very, very well...Santana was up for that bullet 3/8 work, we were very impressed with it and tried the 7 furlong dirt race. That race didn't pan out. Santana said Vanquisher didn't like it and pinned his ears the entire race...flat out would not run!

Second, the blinkers are coming off today (not printed in BRIS form).

Third, he is getting back on his preferred surface and running his preferred distance.

I should mention that Riversrunrylee will be scratched and is re-entered the 28th.

I've attached the pp's for this race and would like to see how others see this race.

[PICSIX]

I don't like to tout my horses, so I won't. I will, however, state why I feel Vanquisher will run much improved in today's 9th at Calder.

First, he is training very, very well...Santana was up for that bullet 3/8 work, we were very impressed with it and tried the 7 furlong dirt race. That race didn't pan out. Santana said Vanquisher didn't like it and pinned his ears the entire race...flat out would not run!

Second, the blinkers are coming off today (not printed in BRIS form).

Third, he is getting back on his preferred surface and running his preferred distance.

I should mention that Riversrunrylee will be scratched and is re-entered the 28th.

I've attached the pp's for this race and would like to see how others see this race.

Definitely ran an improved race, the pace of the race was a little slow which compromised his chances IMO.

[Ocala Mike]

Not a trainer, and don't play one on tv, but the blinkers off move appeared to seriously compromise this horse's ability to keep in contact with the field. Way too far back early; if I didn't know the horse was a "go," I'd have thought he was being held.

B's back on next time?