Arkansas Derby day card

[Valuist]

I see Oaklawn has a second pic 4 for closing day. They have their regular pic 4 encompassing the final 4 races, but also added a stakes pic 4, starting with the Northern Spur.

Oxbow gets another wide draw. This horse can't buy a break. I felt he ran the best race in both the Risen Star and the Rebel. War Academy comes in for Baffert & Smith. Don't know if Smith had a choice but he did ride Oxbow last time out. Throw in Overanalyze and it will be an upset if anyone else wins this. Den's Legacy is a fringe contender.

How low will Fort Larned be in the Oaklawn Cap? The ml is 7-5 but I will be surprised if he's over even money. Cella has a horse who may be 2nd choice. Not sure why Lukas is running Optimizer here. I thought they had figured out he's a good grass horse but not much on dirt.

They have Justin Phillip at 7-5 in the m/l which I think is a bit too low. A dry track would even things out a bit. Have to think Flashpoint has a shot. Outta Tune is a bit interesting at 15-1 ml. He won this race last year, went off form but now has won his last 2 starts. I suspect he won't be near 15-1.

The 1 3/4 mile meet-ender is always interesting. The horse who won the race last year is running on Saturday, but in the 6th, not this race. The most interesting thing about this race is the running line for Tapativity: in each of his 3 races in 2013, he dwelt at the start. Before that it was: refused to break, off 6 lengths slow, off 3 slow, off 3 slow and off 3-4 slow. Maybe he could be competitive if he'd stop giving away 5 lengths every race.

[cj]

The 1 3/4 mile meet-ender is always interesting. The horse who won the race last year is running on Saturday, but in the 6th, not this race. The most interesting thing about this race is the running line for Tapativity: in each of his 3 races in 2013, he dwelt at the start. Before that it was: refused to break, off 6 lengths slow, off 3 slow, off 3 slow and off 3-4 slow. Maybe he could be competitive if he'd stop giving away 5 lengths every race.

There was a time when horses like that would be banned.

[peeptoad]

IHow low will Fort Larned be in the Oaklawn Cap? The ml is 7-5 but I will be surprised if he's over even money. Cella has a horse who may be 2nd choice. Not sure why Lukas is running Optimizer here. I thought they had figured out he's a good grass horse but not much on dirt.

They have Justin Phillip at 7-5 in the m/l which I think is a bit too low. A dry track would even things out a bit. Have to think Flashpoint has a shot. Outta Tune is a bit interesting at 15-1 ml. He won this race last year, went off form but now has won his last 2 starts. I suspect he won't be near 15-1.



Fort Larned is a pretty easy single... as long as he keeps the jock. The only horse I can see possibly beating him is Cyber Secret from the rail, but realistically I don't think that will happen. I love Alternation, but his last two were by far the worst of his career. I hope all is right with him, and he will not get an easy lead in here regardless. Sabercat is the bomb imo. He is slow, but he has run fairly well at this track and gets a lot of pace to try to close into.
I may play an inexpensive P3 starting with the Oak. 'Cap:

R8: 9
R9: 1,2,4,5
R10: 2,5,8,10

The ARK Derby will probably end up being chalky, but Frac Daddy could rebound a little assuming he just did not like the GP strip at all. I'm not sold on the Baffert horse just yet, but he clearly has the most upside in the field (imo).

[Valuist]

Fort Larned is a pretty easy single... as long as he keeps the jock. The only horse I can see possibly beating him is Cyber Secret from the rail, but realistically I don't think that will happen. I love Alternation, but his last two were by far the worst of his career. I hope all is right with him, and he will not get an easy lead in here regardless. Sabercat is the bomb imo. He is slow, but he has run fairly well at this track and gets a lot of pace to try to close into.
I may play an inexpensive P3 starting with the Oak. 'Cap:

R8: 9
R9: 1,2,4,5
R10: 2,5,8,10

The ARK Derby will probably end up being chalky, but Frac Daddy could rebound a little assuming he just did not like the GP strip at all. I'm not sold on the Baffert horse just yet, but he clearly has the most upside in the field (imo).

It looks like Alternation's best days are behind him. Besides Cyber Secret, I would give Atigun a shot. But thats only if Fort Larned has truly become a head case, ala Lady Secret in her final year of racing. But because that, FL shouldn't be much lower than even money. Based on his record before his last race, he could be 1-2 or 3-5.

[ManU918]

I really like Overanalyze in the Ark Derby.

[Dale Gribble]

I really like Overanalyze in the Ark Derby.

Ditto on this call, the Figs for Overanalyze look very good verses the competition.

Overanalyze's last three Figs: (most recent first) 8.7, 9.8 and 12.6.

Respectively the next closest last out Figs are Divine Ambition with a 11.0 and Falling Sky with an 11.1.

Unless another jumps up large it appears to be Overanalyze's race to lose.

[judd]

no 10 oxbow

[Robert Fischer]

Looks wide open.


Falling Sky is really overlooked here. He cleared the field in the Tampa Bay Derby from the 9 post, to set what was a faster pace than maybe some of the figs represent. He dueled with the superior Verrazano looming to his out side, and was only passed by Java's War who was rating off of that pace.

War Academy had a dream set-up in his allowance victory, with a stablemate being the target in what was basically a paid 8.5f workout. But he passed with flying colors, and if he hadn't shown a big response it appeared his stablemate would have won easily. War Academy's penultimate 1/8th in that allowance was 12.11 seconds, while the next best was 12.65 seconds.

[PhantomOnTour]

Looks wide open.


Falling Sky is really overlooked here. He cleared the field in the Tampa Bay Derby from the 9 post, to set what was a faster pace than maybe some of the figs represent. He dueled with the superior Verrazano looming to his out side, and was only passed by Java's War who was rating off of that pace.

War Academy had a dream set-up in his allowance victory, with a stablemate being the target in what was basically a paid 8.5f workout. But he passed with flying colors, and if he hadn't shown a big response it appeared his stablemate would have won easily. War Academy's penultimate 1/8th in that allowance was 12.11 seconds, while the next best was 12.65 seconds.
Very sharp works and he is most likely going to the front, but i think Oxbow is his pace superior.
If Stevens stalks i think he can take Falling Sky whenever he wants - heck, i wonder if he isn't just gonna go for it on Oxbow from out there...screw all this wide trip shit and get out & get over to the rail.
I think the E's will do well in this race, esp if Overanalyze lays close.
No value here imo, except for Falling Sky, but i don't think he wins it.
It's the :4: :9: :10: for me and most likely no bet, but i'm a big Oxbow fan and will probably key him on top in a tri

[raybo]

In the Derby RS has these rankings in FVIV (my preferred method for big races). The top 4 are my win contenders and I will have to have 4/1 or higher odds to bet any of them.

[picojim]

win bets on

:1:CARVE and :8:FRAC DADDY

[FantasticDan]

Arkansas Derby coverage now underway on the NBC Sports network..

[TexasDolly]

I like the 5,9 in the Oaklawn Derby.
TD

[johnhannibalsmith]

This race is tough - I don't like the prices on the two or ten and simply don't like Overanalyze.

Not sure that I love :5: Den's Legacy all that much and think he may be a miler that needs strong splits to run his best, but this race may sort of run like that. The trio of bang bang half milers back at home and a race over the track - a few things to build off of a pace scenario case rooted in something resembling value at 6-1. I guess. :D

[Tee]

Getting Frac Daddy away from GP may just give him a better chance. I look for both Baffert horses to have great trips & be in perfect striking position. We'll find out how good War Academy may be & how much Den's Legacy has left in the tank.

Carve just has to be better than he has show thus far - moving forward today?

Interested to see what kind of position Falling Sky gets out of the gate. A stalking third would be great, or if he gets the lead that's ok as well.

[johnhannibalsmith]

... simply don't like Overanalyze.

...

take THAT!!!

:lol:

[raybo]

9,8,1,4 - Nice run by Overanalyze! My 8 looked ok too, at very good odds.

[Dale Gribble]

Ditto on this call, the Figs for Overanalyze look very good verses the competition.

Overanalyze's last three Figs: (most recent first) 8.7, 9.8 and 12.6.

Respectively the next closest last out Figs are Divine Ambition with a 11.0 and Falling Sky with an 11.1.

Unless another jumps up large it appears to be Overanalyze's race to lose.

And there it is, hopefully I'm not the only one here who cashed on this horse.

Now I have to withstand an objection.

[Tom]

I think we saw the pretenders run today - not a single horse ran today I would give a shot in hell to win the Derby, including Overbet, er, Overpletcherized.
Actually, the older horses looked like a pathetic group as well.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...

Now I have to withstand an objection.

Go cash... I can't imagine this will take long... though my track record in this thread may cause you concern. :lol:

[098poi]

When they reloaded War Academy it looked like the starter gave him a kidney shot and he kind of recoiled, weird.

[nijinski]

I hope War Academy is ok .

[JustRalph]

I bet the :5: the other Baffert horse. He looked lame crossing the line. favoring right front just a little .......hard to tell on the camera though

two down in one race

[raybo]

I bet the :5: the other Baffert horse. He looked lame crossing the line. favoring right front just a little .......hard to tell on the camera though

two down in one race

Yeah, late he looked like he might have some run, and then, nothing!

[Valuist]

Overanalyze was visually impressive. Then I saw the time. Just under 1:52. Two races earlier, Cyber Secret won the Oaklawn Cap in 1:49 3/5. Even if Cyber Secret ran a 110, it would only make Overanalyze about a 90, unless they project a figure.

[JustRalph]

I hope War Academy is ok .


Baffert tweeting that he is ok.............

[nijinski]

Baffert tweeting that he is ok.............

Thanks for the update .

[CincyHorseplayer]

Overanalyze was visually impressive. Then I saw the time. Just under 1:52. Two races earlier, Cyber Secret won the Oaklawn Cap in 1:49 3/5. Even if Cyber Secret ran a 110, it would only make Overanalyze about a 90, unless they project a figure.

Yeah I can't wait to see the time of Cyber Secret's race.That was impressive. a tad under 23,46.2,111.

[cj]

Baffert tweeting that he is ok.............

So then why was he pulled up? Smith panic?

[JustRalph]

So then why was he pulled up? Smith panic?

His tweet just said

"Mike says he's alright after bobbling on the back stretch"

Did that from memory, can't embed tweets here,

[Tee]

From BloodHorse

By Jack Shinar

"(War Academy) was just very uncertain over the surface and I tried to get him to settle," said Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. "He was OK the first turn, but then he took four or five really awkward steps. I didn't see anything major causing it, but I just felt really awkward on him and figured better safe than sorry, so I pulled him up. I didn't want to take any chances."

[cj]

From BloodHorse

By Jack Shinar

"(War Academy) was just very uncertain over the surface and I tried to get him to settle," said Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. "He was OK the first turn, but then he took four or five really awkward steps. I didn't see anything major causing it, but I just felt really awkward on him and figured better safe than sorry, so I pulled him up. I didn't want to take any chances."

Too bad the X man from Pimlico wasn't riding him!

[johnhannibalsmith]

From BloodHorse

By Jack Shinar

"(War Academy) was just very uncertain over the surface and I tried to get him to settle," said Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. "He was OK the first turn, but then he took four or five really awkward steps. I didn't see anything major causing it, but I just felt really awkward on him and figured better safe than sorry, so I pulled him up. I didn't want to take any chances."

Maybe poor Mikey's been reading too many Paulick Reports this week.

[cj]

Maybe poor Mikey's been reading too many Paulick Reports this week.

The horse acted up in the gate, which usually isn't a good sign. The chances the horse is "fine" are slim and none. Smith is probably just trying to protect Baffert given the news this week.

[raybo]

Personally, I trust Mike's judgement. He's ridden enough horses to know when something isn't right with the horse.

[Valuist]

Over/Under on Overanalyze's winning Beyer: 90

[Tom]

Needs a jockey switch.......Desormeaux? :rolleyes:

[Valuist]

Over/Under on Overanalyze's winning Beyer: 90

The UNDER comes in; they gave him an 88.

[CincyHorseplayer]

88 and he's drawing away.That's too funny!

[Valuist]

88 and he's drawing away.That's too funny!

Doesn't say much for the rest of that field. Baffert's horse pulled up, and Oxbow didn't run particularly well. The time and figure match up with the Oaklawn Handicap which was run over 2 full seconds faster about an hour earlier on the card.

[PhantomOnTour]

Doesn't say much for the rest of that field. Baffert's horse pulled up, and Oxbow didn't run particularly well. The time and figure match up with the Oaklawn Handicap which was run over 2 full seconds faster about an hour earlier on the card.
Oxbow and the winner were the only ones running in the lane.
He runs 2nd if that race goes another 1/16th - yep, i'm an Oxbow fan :D

The race was slow though, and that's the problem

[Valuist]

Oxbow and the winner were the only ones running in the lane.
He runs 2nd if that race goes another 1/16th - yep, i'm an Oxbow fan :D

The race was slow though, and that's the problem

I can't imagine there have been many Ark Derbies slower than this one. Even when Rockamundo won at 100-1 he got a triple digit Beyer. Even the plugged in maiden Valhol did better than an 88.

[Striker]

I can't imagine there have been many Ark Derbies slower than this one. Even when Rockamundo won at 100-1 he got a triple digit Beyer. Even the plugged in maiden Valhol did better than an 88.
Slowest Ark Derby since 1978 when Esops Foibles went 1:52.20.

[cj]

I can't imagine there have been many Ark Derbies slower than this one. Even when Rockamundo won at 100-1 he got a triple digit Beyer. Even the plugged in maiden Valhol did better than an 88.

Personally, I don't think you can compare Beyer figures from 5 years ago to today, let alone 10 or 20. They are shrinking faster than a cheap t-shirt in hot water.

[Valuist]

Personally, I don't think you can compare Beyer figures from 5 years ago to today, let alone 10 or 20. They are shrinking faster than a cheap t-shirt in hot water.

It seems that way, yet Cyber Secret put up a 108 in the Oaklawn Handicap.

And how long before T-Graph comes out and says due to ground loss, Overanalyze ran a minus 3 or something absurd. Beyer numbers are shrinking, yet Brown claims the fastest figs in history have been in the past 10 years.