Chasing our losses...

[thaskalos]

We've seen others do it...and have, no doubt, done it many times ourselves.

We begin our wagering day with a definitive plan in mind, and start off by making the exact plays that we intended to make. But the nature of the game is such that we are guaranteed to lose much more often than we can win...so the most likely scenario will find us "in the hole" -- often substantially -- some time during the day's play. How we react to such situations not only defines us as players...but sometimes determines our overall financial future as well.

I frequent the OTBs more than probably anyone here...and, as a result, have become acquainted with a number of regular players -- and have gotten quite friendly with some of them. And, invariably, I notice a great metamorphosis taking place in almost all of them, whenever they are put under the adversity of facing the likelihood of a losing day of betting. They start pressing to get even, either by increasing the size of their wagers...or by starting to bet on almost every race they see, in one way or another. Sometimes they do both.

It's as if tomorrow will never come, and today's outcome is the most important consideration there is.

The long-term result is always catastrophic...and always painful even to be around.

I have known "Bob" for close to 30 years...and have always considered him to be a great guy and a good family man. An engineer by profession, he has worked hard to achieve the finer things in life...and always handles himself with dignity and class -- something that is not so easy for a regular horseplayer to carry out.

I walked into the OTB about a week ago and found him sitting at his table alone...so I sat down with him, as I often do. But this time his attitude was different, and I could feel it. There obviously was some great problem hanging in the air, and he was looking at me as if he wanted to discuss it, but couldn't find the words.

"What is it, Bob", I asked him..."is there something you want to tell me?"

What he told me was staggering...and I have been rolling it in my head all week. And I want to share it with you too...because there is a great message in it for all of us "serious players".

He told me that he had worked hard as an engineer for many years, and was always looking forward to retirement...which he thought would come in a couple of years. He had an excellent profit-sharing plan at work...which he had seen grow to a very healthy level...and which, coupled with his retirement package, would more than take care of himself and his wife during their twilight years.

But things started going awry a couple of years ago...when he decided that he had the required skill to take this game "a little more seriously"...

His journey as a "serious player" started with heavy losses, and the losses could not be covered by his paycheck...which had to be brought home to cover his family's living expenses. So...he decided to start withdrawing money from his profit-sharing plan -- without his wife's knowledge.

As the losses accumulated -- and retirement came freightenly nearer -- he started withdrawing, and wagering, more aggressively...trying to "get even", so that his misdeed could go unnoticed by his family. But it was not to be.

The losses piled up...and the urge to get even grew in intensity. Caution was thrown to the wind...and the end result was catastrophic.

He told me that...not only had he, in about two years, completely depleted the profit-sharing account that he and his family had relied on for their retirement...but that he had also found himself in debt for several thousands of dollars to some local riff-raff that is usually found around tracks and OTBs. The "juice" on that money could not be concealed from his family any longer...he told me...and he would have to come clean about his "situation" a little sooner than he had hoped.

He "knew" what his family's reaction would be...he told me...and he honestly didn't know what to do. There was only "darkness" all around him...he said.

As I said...I've been around racetracks and OTBs for many years, and horror stories of this type are nothing new to me. But I thought I could distinguish those with catastrophic tendencies from those with a more healthy outlook on the game...and I was shocked to have been proven so wrong in this case.

I mean...this man had been a gentleman in every way during the entire 30 years that I have known him...and had, himself, helped people in financial distress in the past. He is also a very knowledgeable player...who obviously should have known better than to find himself in a predicament such as this.

We talk lightly about this game sometimes...to the point where we forget that it sometimes becomes much more than just a "game". There is a very addictive nature to it...and it is surprisingly easy for one to lose not only his money, but himself as well.

The aphorism "Man, know thyself" is especially applicable at the race track.

If a person does not know himself...then the race track should be the last place he should visit, to find out...

[BlueChip@DRF]

I know someone who does this. He sends me to the track first, conserving his lunchtime in case he loses (which is probably often) so he can try to "make up for it" during his lunchtime by betting on more races to "break even" for the day.

I HOPE YOU ARE READING THIS! STOP BETTING SO MANY RACES AND LEARN TO HANDICAP ON YOUR OWN INSTEAD OF DEPENDING ON OTHERS FOR PICKS!

[Stillriledup]

Horse race betting is a skill game, but many people turn it into a 'luck' game, such as the lottery. Betting horses is a chess match, its nothing like a game (lottery) where everyone has the same exact chance and skill is meaningless.

Tracks who sell the 'rush' of the gamble don't really have to lower the prices of their bets (takeout) because they know the rush is too much to overcome and people will keep coming back no matter how much reality slaps them in the face and says "you're not good enough to win, find another hobby"

I know personally that i've gotten much better and more skilled at not 'chasing' bad days...i know that tomorrow is coming and i have no problems sleeping at night no matter how much i lose in any one day....but, it took a long time to get to that point.

I always say the worst thing that can happen to a person is to bet on that first winner and actually think that the reason they bet on said winner is because they knew something. Once you start convincing yourself that you won because you're a genius and smarter than everyone else, that's what gets average horseplayers in trouble.

The idea is to stay incredibly humble (like me :D ) and make sure you realize that no matter how many winners you pick or how many winners you successfully bet on, its still the hardest game in the world and incredibly unforgiving.

Those who forget the difficulty of this game are probably going to experience more pain than those who always tell themselves "this is hard and i won't ever forget that"

[cj]

I'm not sure what is worse, the story itself or the fact he was still in the OTB at his table telling it.

[TheEdge07]

I'm not sure what is worse, the story itself or the fact he was still in the OTB at his table telling it.

cj your 100% correct wtf.out of all places to be telling his story...

[pondman]

Sorry to hear this...I hate to see people bleeding at the track.

I never understand when a bright, analytical person gets the model wrong. They are the people who collapse the economy or lose their fortunes. It says much about predicting the outcome of anything.

But there probably is some truth to the fact, that your friend, probably never was all that good at gambling. And didn't fully understand the risk of playing what is essentially a toxic asset game. And more than likely didn't understand only a few horses have a high level of value. He couldn't restrain himself-- he needed action.

You can tell when you meet someone who can play the game. They know strange percentages. They know for example how many winners repeat at each track. They've been specific in their study, not trying to hit them all. But take some money home on an obscure observation. And they adjust their play to meet the risk.

[traynor]

The addictive nature of gambling is based on what psychologists call "unscheduled reward." The bettor knows the reward will come, and--much like the gerbils in the lab--keeps yanking hopefully at the parimutuel lever in the hope of reward. Remove that, and gambling becomes "self-extinguishing." All the rush, and excitement, and dramatic photo finishes aside, bettors do not continue betting when they are losing in the hope of "recovering losses." They continue betting in the hope of that unscheduled (and hence highly addictive) reward.

This is not rocket science. It is a widely used lever to manipulate corporate personnel to continually outdo themselves (and others) with the same hope of an "extra bonus" (not the expected bonuses, which have little motivation because they are expected).

What is the solution? Forget all that "excitement" nonsense. Look at gambling/betting as a business, with profit the sole motivation. Not many businesses keep the doors open when they are losing money. Especially when they are losing money month after month, year after year.

There is one other option. Do what many do, and gamble/bet for recreation/amusement/pleasure. There is nothing whatsoever wrong with that, if one keeps their action within affordable boundaries.

The worst case scenario is the gambler/bettor who is losing, and who pretends that he or she is the sharpest tack in the box and is only one race/one pot/one weekend in Vegas away from a major score. If one bets for profit--and only for profit--it puts all the rest of it into perspective.

[lamboguy]

i have 2 different rules in money management. 99% of the time i play the exact same amount of every race i play. on the other 1% is when i am betting something that i think i have a huge edge with, a horse that an improvement cannot be seen on paper, or a first time starter that is pretty hidden. i estimate how much will be in the pools of the particular track and bet what i believe to be about 1% of that pool. i place my money in those pools early to give anyone the chance to bet their money against me. often times in those type of races i will bet both the straight mutuel pools and the vertical exotic pools.

[therussmeister]

This is why I have never introduced anyone to horse racing, and never will. I can't tell who will wind up being a problem gambler. This is also why I, after a brief trial, quit poker. I am not ok with encouraging bad gamblers to continue to gamble badly, an essential part of successful poker.

[Dave Schwartz]

What is the solution? Forget all that "excitement" nonsense. Look at gambling/betting as a business, with profit the sole motivation. Not many businesses keep the doors open when they are losing money. Especially when they are losing money month after month, year after year.

That is very good advice.

:ThmbUp:

[thaskalos]

What is the solution? Forget all that "excitement" nonsense. Look at gambling/betting as a business, with profit the sole motivation. Not many businesses keep the doors open when they are losing money. Especially when they are losing money month after month, year after year.



You won't find many "businessmen" who have started their business with money that they could "afford to lose", either...

Betting is a business like no other...

[Tom]

OK, what we need is a TV show for HRTV TVG, mixing this idea with Restaurant Impossible, or Bar Rescue. Each week, a different guy is losing his ass at the track, and a professional is called in turn him around in 48 hours.
The show will focus on the pro re-doing the guy and making him a winner.

[thaskalos]

OK, what we need is a TV show for HRTV TVG, mixing this idea with Restaurant Impossible, or Bar Rescue. Each week, a different guy is losing his ass at the track, and a professional is called in turn him around in 48 hours.
The show will focus on the pro re-doing the guy and making him a winner.

Let's call the show..."Psychological Makeover".

It worked for Doc Sartin...;)

[Greyfox]

Thask - You to be very careful in the situation that you described to us to check out that this man wasn't on the verge of suicide.
I don't doubt that you gave him support emotionally, but in the circumstances that you described I'd want to consider either going home with him to his family or taking him to a clinic or hospital.

At one time Nevada used to have one of the highest suicide rates in the United States.
That fig has changed over the years, but it's still ranked fifth.

http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/usa/suicide

[thaskalos]

Thask - You to be very careful in the situation that you described to us to check out that this man wasn't on the verge of suicide.
I don't doubt that you gave him support emotionally, but in the circumstances that you described I'd want to consider either going home with him to his family or taking him to a clinic or hospital.

At one time Nevada used to have one of the highest suicide rates in the United States.
That fig has changed over the years, but it's still ranked fifth.

http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/usa/suicide

I am very worried about his psychological state, and gave him the best advice I could...but I am not sure that I can help him in any "real" way. He allowed the situation to get too out of hand...

And I don't relish the thought of actually being there with him, when he finally decides to confess to his family.

Like I said...it's a very unpleasant situation to be around, much less be personally involved in.

[MJC922]

To be fair to the subject, on the plus side I don't think you'll find many people who have gone through the hell it takes to develop profitable play without their horseplaying being viewed at some point in their lives as an unhealthy obsession. This stuff doesn't come easily, it's punishing. This person will either learn the discipline or get himself into a lot of trouble. I don't see a middle ground in this case. Being that he presumably has an income but still crossed the line into poor judgment by taking out a loan from 'riff raff' makes me skeptical that he can keep himself under control consistently enough to remain profitable. People with this obsession, sickness, call it what you will, myself included, have lapses, I mean it's human nature, but man you can't afford too many.

[Greyfox]

I am very worried about his psychological state, and gave him the best advice I could...but I am not sure that I can help him in any "real" way. He allowed the situation to get too out of hand...

And I don't relish the thought of actually being there with him, when he finally decides to confess to his family.

Like I said...it's a very unpleasant situation to be around, much less be personally involved in.

I can appreciate that.

Some things in life I'd prefer to avoid too.

In this instance, it has to be your call on how you handle it.

I wish you well.

[Stillriledup]

This is why I have never introduced anyone to horse racing, and never will. I can't tell who will wind up being a problem gambler. This is also why I, after a brief trial, quit poker. I am not ok with encouraging bad gamblers to continue to gamble badly, an essential part of successful poker.

I'm with you 100 %, i know the brutal reality of this game, i would never introduce someone i cared about into the betting arena, i can't tell them with a straight face "racing will take care of you, as a customer, they'll treat you well, respect you and make sure you are valued as a member of the community".

I would be embarrassed to have to answer the question "should i become a racing fan, how would the racing industry treat me as a customer".

[johnhannibalsmith]

...crossed the line into poor judgment by taking out a loan from 'riff raff' makes me skeptical that he can keep himself under ...

Yup. Going busted is one thing and can be bad enough when you drain income and savings to do it, but when you borrow, especially under these circumstances, as step number three - get out and stay out. Being a poor or losing bettor is one thing and not a real problem in itself. When there's no end to the depths of the hole you are willing to dig, you are well past the point of "chasing losses". You're just doomed.

[HUSKER55]

that is why I have a daily limit on loses. there is always tomorrow. it avoids chasing bad money and it helps keep you focused and disciplined.

I would think that any gambler that is serious would know enough to set rules of engagement.

I know a guy who lost his house and his job due to gambling. about a year ago him and a group of his "buddies" took off for vegas to make their mark. never heard from him again.

you hope for the best...but deep down...you know.

when life happens like that I like to thank the lord that I am able to stop when I hit my limit.

There is a certain amount of comfort in that. I hope all of you feel it as well.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Great advice Husker.

[JohnGalt1]

I can honestly say that I have never gone on tilt at the race track. I usually put all my bets in before the first race I play.

If a horse that I like at 4-1 is 9-5, or any unacceptable odds, with a couple minutes to post, I go back to the SAM (or Twin Spires, if I'm home,) and cancel my bet. It feels like a win, especially if the horse loses.

If I'm in a losing streak, as I was earlier in the year, I lower the amount of my bets. Then bring them back up as wins start to normalize.

But I have gone on tilt at the blackjack table--more than once. That was many years ago and I can still remember the sick feeling of losing two to 4 times more than was acceptable.

The worst time was about 15 years ago where a pit boss suggested I take a break, and he wasn't talking about a coffee break. He wanted me to go home. That time it wasn't just about the money, it was embarrassing to have a pit boss tell me I'd lost too much.

I still play blackjack, and have had winning years, but I don't try to break the bank any more, especially mine.

[Stillriledup]

that is why I have a daily limit on loses. there is always tomorrow. it avoids chasing bad money and it helps keep you focused and disciplined.

I would think that any gambler that is serious would know enough to set rules of engagement.

I know a guy who lost his house and his job due to gambling. about a year ago him and a group of his "buddies" took off for vegas to make their mark. never heard from him again.

you hope for the best...but deep down...you know.

when life happens like that I like to thank the lord that I am able to stop when I hit my limit.

There is a certain amount of comfort in that. I hope all of you feel it as well.

Lots of truth in what you write. I think EGO is what gets in the way of an otherwise smart human and his excessive gambling losses. These people believe that they're great, or smart, or smarter than the average horseplayer and their brain just won't tell them any different no matter how many times the gambling gods smash a 2 by 4 over their heads.

[CincyHorseplayer]

This is a story that defines the situation more than the obvious tragedy of it.Why would somebody all of the sudden decide to enter into battle without having a separate bankroll?One that was earned and saved by the skill you are endeavoring to do?I rattle the idea around the brain why after x amount of years I don't play professionally.The answer is equally tragic when considered but not near as sad.I've played my way through some winters during the last decade to a good degree of success,enough when work was slow to pay the bills.But it wasn't enough to stop the presses and go at full time.I told myself I will not enter into the fray with less than a 10K bankroll that was earned from this and peripheral money to cover the bills for at least a year.My tragedy is my own ego that is far too influenced by my normal once a week style of play.I win.I have(for me)those marvelous days of 4 for 6 or 7 of 10.Then it's on!It's steakhouse and lobster time,time to take my daughter shopping,buy some kayaks and golf clubs,live a little.The end result is that when something shitty happens,I don't have a bankroll substantial enough to at least have the option of giving it a go.I need to quit robbing myself!Wether for good and fun or not it's still self robbery.I'm robbing myself of being a for real player.After roughly 200 hours of project time this winter,self and game,I vow to not allow this to happen again,exception being December 1st when I will take money out for Christmas.I've never bet money I couldn't afford to lose,but I've never stashed enough to make a genuine impact.I feel for a good guy like Bob.I've seen the type.You wish you could undo it for them.

[porchy44]

Until Slot machines are everywhere. The state of Ohio is now beginning to get their fill.
I think stories like Bob's will become tenfold. I submit slots are a much faster death than horses.

[Valuist]

Some days it just isn't going to happen. Professional bettors have off days, in racing or sports. Stock traders will have losing trades. Card counters have plenty of losing days as well.

Not sure how to give advice on self discipline. If someone is a good handicapper but really weak with self discipline, they should limit their wagers. I've talked in the past about blind betting; I think for many the advantages are greater than the drawbacks, especially for anyone inclined to chase. The advantages are you are only betting the races in which you have the strongest opinion(s). The other obvious advantage is you don't chase because you can't. You're not there. No, you don't get to see the odds. Learn to make your own line and project. No, you don't get to see the paddock and post parade.

Can always record the races, or watch later online.

[Valuist]

I've been going to the track for 30 years, and I can only think of two instances where people's lives were ruined.

I have a friend who did bet full time for many years. He had another friend who was an attorney; lets call him Dave. Dave was a solid handicapper. Usually bet around 50 a race but when he had a strong opinion, he'd up the wager to 200-250. He lost a few $200 wagers and I didn't see him. I heard later on, he upped the wagers to $2000. To cover his losses, he started stealing money out of clients' escrow accounts. To try to cover that, my friend who was the bettor, loaned him $30k, but put a lien on his house. In any event, he got caught, was sent to jail and disbarred. This was around 20 years ago. He's been out for awhile, and apparently works now as a paralegal. I haven't seen him at Arlington, or any of the other OTBs, since.

I knew another guy who was a decent handicapper, but very arrogant. "I don't need to write down trip notes. I can remember everything." He played college football years ago, and felt he was smarter than anyone. He apparently had a big meet at Arlington around 1990 and made over $50k that summer. The problems started with the advent of full-card simulcasting in 1995. He was laid off from his job and started betting with both hands. The losses mount, and the bank foreclosed on his house. He was homeless, living out of his Jaguar. Another friend told me he went to GA, and we didn't see him for years. But he eventually made his way back, and he's still at the windows.

[Archie Bunker]

I think Bob should change his name to "Meathead". Anyone who let themselves go that far deserves everything they get. That goes for slot players also. It's all about self control. Weakness is not an option in gambling. If you can't run with the Big Dogs, stay on the porch.

[JustRalph]

Is Bob a member of this board?

[thaskalos]

Is Bob a member of this board?

He doesn't know that this board even exists...otherwise I would have kept this story to myself.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I can honestly say that I have never gone on tilt at the race track. I usually put all my bets in before the first race I play.

If a horse that I like at 4-1 is 9-5, or any unacceptable odds, with a couple minutes to post, I go back to the SAM (or Twin Spires, if I'm home,) and cancel my bet. It feels like a win, especially if the horse loses.

If I'm in a losing streak, as I was earlier in the year, I lower the amount of my bets. Then bring them back up as wins start to normalize.

But I have gone on tilt at the blackjack table--more than once. That was many years ago and I can still remember the sick feeling of losing two to 4 times more than was acceptable.

The worst time was about 15 years ago where a pit boss suggested I take a break, and he wasn't talking about a coffee break. He wanted me to go home. That time it wasn't just about the money, it was embarrassing to have a pit boss tell me I'd lost too much.

I still play blackjack, and have had winning years, but I don't try to break the bank any more, especially mine.

This is a great idea and one I have thought about this winter and am going to do.You only go to the windows to get back underlay tickets,switch a contender,or bet more.Simple but genius.Good stuff John.

[JohnGalt1]

This is a great idea and one I have thought about this winter and am going to do.You only go to the windows to get back underlay tickets,switch a contender,or bet more.Simple but genius.Good stuff John.


The first time I put all my bets in ahead of time was the first Claiming Crown at Canterbury because it was crowded and didn't want to get shut out.

And I continue to do it for that same reason and to avoid my or teller's mistakes. When you catch a mistake two hours before a race is run and can fix it saves a lot of stress.

[CincyHorseplayer]

The first time I put all my bets in ahead of time was the first Claiming Crown at Canterbury because it was crowded and didn't want to get shut out.

And I continue to do it for that same reason and to avoid my or teller's mistakes. When you catch a mistake two hours before a race is run and can fix it saves a lot of stress.

Some of the best ideas are the simplest.This and Raybo's fixed ROI % are the best red tape cutters I've read all winter.Like yourself,I see the stress reduction factor in it.Plus once it's in,I find myself wanting to bet more at times.If I'm in a rush I might get up to the window and bark out a standard bet,not wanting the guy behind me to get shut out.If it's already in and I'm going back to bet more I know I have a good thing.I started to do this at River last year.One day I went back to cancel 3 straight bets because they were underlays!Another time I went back to unload on a great looking filly and a lone closer exacta.She won by 8 lengths and the lone closer was clear by 3.It's a good strategy.You know what you want to do when you show up.There's no sense in waiting around.Like you said too much drama can happen in the interim.I still have dreams about some near misses because of this type of thing.Plus I don't think I'm the only player that gets the occasional sheepishness because of overanalysis.I slightly underbet my top combination in the Appleton playing brain ping pong at 2 minutes to post,when I absolutely knew what I wanted to do 24 hours before the race.It promptly ran 1-2 no problem!Simple but genius John.Appreciate the nudge in the right direction!

[JohnGalt1]

Some of the best ideas are the simplest.This and Raybo's fixed ROI % are the best red tape cutters I've read all winter.Like yourself,I see the stress reduction factor in it.Plus once it's in,I find myself wanting to bet more at times.If I'm in a rush I might get up to the window and bark out a standard bet,not wanting the guy behind me to get shut out.If it's already in and I'm going back to bet more I know I have a good thing.I started to do this at River last year.One day I went back to cancel 3 straight bets because they were underlays!Another time I went back to unload on a great looking filly and a lone closer exacta.She won by 8 lengths and the lone closer was clear by 3.It's a good strategy.You know what you want to do when you show up.There's no sense in waiting around.Like you said too much drama can happen in the interim.I still have dreams about some near misses because of this type of thing.Plus I don't think I'm the only player that gets the occasional sheepishness because of overanalysis.I slightly underbet my top combination in the Appleton playing brain ping pong at 2 minutes to post,when I absolutely knew what I wanted to do 24 hours before the race.It promptly ran 1-2 no problem!Simple but genius John.Appreciate the nudge in the right direction!

Thanks for the kind words.

One other reason I decided to do this is that I'm a fan of old movies. Remember the 1940's movies where Phillip Marlowe or Sam spade before leaving his office would call his bookie and place a $50 win bet on the 4 horse in the 7th race at Belmont. The bet was registered then he would go solve his case without the stress of being shut out

One disadvantage to betting early--if you make large, say $2,000 win bets at medium to small tracks the odds will open at 1-9 and everyone will jump aboard because of the "smart?" inside money. :)

[OCF]

One disadvantage to betting early--if you make large, say $2,000 win bets at medium to small tracks the odds will open at 1-9 and everyone will jump aboard because of the "smart?" inside money. :)

I'm just one guy making small win bets, but I lose interest at 1/9 as opposed to piling on.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Thanks for the kind words.

One other reason I decided to do this is that I'm a fan of old movies. Remember the 1940's movies where Phillip Marlowe or Sam spade before leaving his office would call his bookie and place a $50 win bet on the 4 horse in the 7th race at Belmont. The bet was registered then he would go solve his case without the stress of being shut out

One disadvantage to betting early--if you make large, say $2,000 win bets at medium to small tracks the odds will open at 1-9 and everyone will jump aboard because of the "smart?" inside money. :)

You've lost me there brother!I was born in 73 so most of those 40's movies escaped me!You are way above me on the 2 K bets too!I'm Joe $20-40 and will jack it up to $100-150 when I feel confident.But that's usually only a handful of times a year.The way you bet is instant influence.I think it's totally smart.

You know you can totally pull the rug out from under them and cancel that 2K bet and watch them wiggle in fear?That's a luxury the "Smart money" indulges!:)

[JohnGalt1]

I was born in 1954, so before my time too, but I enjoy reading books from that era, and many noir and crime movies I've seen on TCM,

And my highest win bets are usually $50, though I once bet $250 to win on Cigar and felt too high a stress level winning a $100 profit to do that for the foreseeable future.

For those that have Antenna TV station in your area, Boots Malone with William Holden will be on this coming weekend.

[JustRalph]

If you Watch"Thé Big Sleep" from 1946 Bogart and Bacall
In the scenes in his office you can see thé walls have pictures of race horses and framed articles that look like they are cut out of the DRF.

Then there is the scene in the same film where they talk about horse racing and whether or not Bogart s a sprinter or a router, all the while the audience is getting the fact that they are talking about sex. It was 1946 ........

[Saratoga_Mike]

]You won't find many "businessmen" who have started their business with money that they could "afford to lose", either...

Betting is a business like no other...

I don't think that's true. There are plenty of businesses started by serial entrepreneurs who have already accumulated large amounts of wealth.

Needless to say, your friend belongs in Gamblers' Anonymous.

[thaskalos]

I don't think that's true. There are plenty of businesses started by serial entrepreneurs who have already accumulated large amounts of wealth.

Needless to say, your friend belongs in Gamblers' Anonymous.
You might be right...so I won't belabor the point.

It's just that, in the businesses that I am familiar with, people not only have used money that they could ill-afford to lose...but they've even had to borrow to the limits of their credit.

And speaking of Gamblers Anonymous...I myself took their 20-question initiation test, which is posted online.

I failed it miserably...and I suspect most serious gamblers would fail it as well.

[Saratoga_Mike]

You might be right...so I won't belabor the point.

It's just that, in the businesses that I am familiar with, people not only have used money that they could ill-afford to lose...but they've even had to borrow to the limits of their credit.

And speaking of Gamblers Anonymous...I myself took their 20-question initiation test, which is posted online.

I failed it miserably...and I suspect most serious gamblers would fail it as well.

The gentleman just burned through his life savings gambling. There's no way to rationalize it or compare it to starting a business. If he's still gambling, he belongs in GA. I do feel badly for him, but he needs help.

[thaskalos]

The gentleman just burned through his life savings gambling. There's no way to rationalize it or compare it to starting a business. If he's still gambling, he belongs in GA. I do feel badly for him, but he needs help.
I agree completely, and I was in no way trying to excuse or rationalize it...or compare it to starting a business.

My "business" reference was directed at a post that Traynor had submitted, which was not directly related to my friend's financial demise.

I have always maintained that serious gambling has serious repercussions...and many players are not suited for it.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I agree completely, and I was in no way trying to excuse or rationalize it...or compare it to starting a business.

My "business" reference was directed at a post that Traynor had submitted, which was not directly related to my friend's financial demise.

I have always maintained that serious gambling has serious repercussions...and many players are not suited for it.

Sorry - missed the Traynor exchange - I'm sure it was delightful.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't think that's true. There are plenty of businesses started by serial entrepreneurs who have already accumulated large amounts of wealth.

Needless to say, your friend belongs in Gamblers' Anonymous.
And there are also plenty of businesses started that rapidly go into the toilet...ever watch "Kitchen Nightmares" with Chef Ramsay on FOX?

I've lost count of the number of restaurants he's gone to help save whose owners tell him they are so far in debt, that if the restaurant goes out of business, they will lose their house and be out on the street...

How much different is that than gambling your money away?

Both "businesses" are being run by people who obviously don't know what they are doing, and yet they keep throwing good money after bad until they're in so deep, they're basically ****ed...

[Greyfox]

The gentleman just burned through his life savings gambling. There's no way to rationalize it or compare it to starting a business. If he's still gambling, he belongs in GA. I do feel badly for him, but he needs help.

:ThmbUp: Yes!

Kudos toThaskalos for outlining a thumbnail sketch of this man's plight in Post 1 of this thread.

Undoubtedly, there are some who've chipped in or chirped in who have not read that piece. They should.

The fact is that is that this board attracts several thousand members and "lurkers" everyday.

In that regard, there may be one , two or three who are bordering on the same or similar threshold of pending disaster as the man that Thask described.

At the track or betting parlor, I've met them and you probably have too.

Don't even ask why they are so intent on self-destruction.
Often they don't know why themselves.
In actuality there can be as many answers as there are horseplayers or gamblers that are doing it.
Trying to figure out their reasons can be like trying to solve a 5 sided Rubiks cube.
Don't bother.
At the bottom of the barrel in desperation, they don't have the energy or the interest to figure out the "Why" of their stupidity.
They know what happened. All the talk in the world won't help them - at that point. (Perhaps down the road it might.)

They need "emotional support" - love, caring, kindness,....from friends and family. The financial consequences of their rashness won't go away.
Nor should their support system.

The bottom line is sometime - they need to acknowledge that they have a problem- or as I prefer to word it "a challenge."
In the example Thaskalos provided, the man did that, albeit he was more or less at the end of his financial string.

At that point he certainly needed and needs emotional support and acceptance, without giving encouragement to the gambling that has jeopardized his future and those he loves . Family is usually the first source of support....although not necessarily.

The huge value of this thread is that someone visiting this site will read it and "the penny will drop."

Hopefully if even One Visitor or Member can learn and take heed from the example that Thaskalos has posted, this has been a valuable thread.

Thank you Thask, and the contributors of the discussion which has followed.

Greyfox :ThmbUp:

p.s. This thread is entitled "Chasing Your Money."
Horseplayers do that every day.
But the pathology of the player in Post 1 of this thread is far greater than the foolish play of most horse players - hopefully.

[TJDave]

I am not sure that I can help him in any "real" way. He allowed the situation to get too out of hand...


Offer to take him to an AA/NA/GA meeting. He needs to be in a program.

[thaskalos]

:ThmbUp: Yes!

Kudos toThaskalos for outlining a thumbnail sketch of this man's plight in Post 1 of this thread.

Undoubtedly, there are some who've chipped in or chirped in who have not read that piece. They should.

The fact is that is that this board attracts several thousand members and "lurkers" everyday.

In that regard, there may be one , two or three who are bordering on the same or similar threshold of pending disaster as the man that Thask described.

At the track or betting parlor, I've met them and you probably have too.

Don't even ask why they are so intent on self-destruction.
Often they don't know why themselves.
In actuality there can be as many answers as there are horseplayers or gamblers that are doing it.
Trying to figure out their reasons can be like trying to solve a 5 sided Rubiks cube.
Don't bother.
At the bottom of the barrel in desperation, they don't have the energy or the interest to figure out the "Why" of their stupidity.
They know what happened. All the talk in the world won't help them - at that point. (Perhaps down the road it might.)

They need "emotional support" - love, caring, kindness,....from friends and family. The financial consequences of their rashness won't go away.
Nor should their support system.

The bottom line is sometime - they need to acknowledge that they have a problem- or as I prefer to word it "a challenge."
In the example Thaskalos provided, the man did that, albeit he was more or less at the end of his financial string.

At that point he certainly needed and needs emotional support and acceptance, without giving encouragement to the gambling that has jeopardized his future and those he loves . Family is usually the first source of support....although not necessarily.

The huge value of this thread is that someone visiting this site will read it and "the penny will drop."

Hopefully if even One Visitor or Member can learn and take heed from the example that Thaskalos has posted, this has been a valuable thread.

Thank you Thask, and the contributors of the discussion which has followed.

Greyfox :ThmbUp:

p.s. This thread is entitled "Chasing Your Money."
Horseplayers do that every day.
But the pathology of the player in Post 1 of this thread is far greater than the foolish play of most horse players - hopefully.

Thank you for your kind words, Greyfox...

I was understandably reluctant to tell this story, but, as you've already said...even if it ends up helping a single person, it is well worth having it told.

I love this game, and I support it enthusiastically at the betting windows...but I cannot endorse it to others, because you never know when disasters of this type will strike.

Sadly...stories like these are not as rare as some might think...

[racingfan378]

Too many sad stories like this around the world of gambling.

I've seen the pros out there and I can't even begin to think what it's like to be a professional gambler. I wouldn't want that high and low cycle going on every single gambling day. Where's the fun in that? Or in this case, chase losses trying to make up for it.

I know when I started playing the races legally at 18, I had lots of luck, therefore my school suffered, my job suffered by calling off and the list goes on b/c I was going to the tracks. However it was a teacher who played the races who quit cold turkey by saying you cant win at this game if you dont have the money nor the patience and I'll be damned, he was right.

I lost a lot (by my standards) in the first 10 years of betting the races, but I learned real quick at a young age that it just isn't worth the chase once you start losing and tomorrow is truly another day.

I wonder if someone kept track to the penny including costs to get to the track, forms, programs, eating, betting, how much money a gambler tends to lose over their lifetime?



They say horseplayers have a tough as nails attitude and no heart but you can tell in this story that your heart is beyond broken and if you could wave a magic wand and fix it, you would :(

[Robert Fischer]

self-destruction.

This game is hard to begin with, and then on top of the difficulty of the game itself, = you have the mental game.

That mental game can be as hard as the handicapping.

Take last month for example.
I scraped together a couple months savings, to put $320 into an account to wager with.

By the evening of March 15th I had already won $352 between Aqueduct and Gulfstream.

At that point I was 15 days and 157 wagers into the month. My bankroll was now at $1,400.

I had no big wins, and my wagering was primarily WPS. Everything was carefully calculated according to grinding style. Although my bankroll was now 4.375 times my initial investment, My ROI was what most here would call small (1.10). The growth was from exponential growth, not a couple big exotics.

Of the 157 wagers I had hit 93 (or 59%).

Even though I had passed my goal for the day, I decided to there was a horse at Charles Town that I felt I had an edge on. I lost about $100, in a carefully calculated bet, following my rules (as I had been for the entire 15 days). I lost, as I had been doing 41% of the time so far.

This time was different. In a fit of rage, like a spoiled child, I randomly bet the next favorite I saw for $1300. The horse had nothing to do with the things I look for. Obviously 100% of my bankroll had nothing to do with my careful wager-size strategy. But for some reason, I went temporarily insane and kicked down the the nice castle i had been building with the building blocks. Chasing the insignificant $100 that I had lost, and I threw away half a month of hard work, and a promising start that may have lead to something.

This game is incredibly hard.

[Stillriledup]

This game is hard to begin with, and then on top of the difficulty of the game itself, = you have the mental game.

That mental game can be as hard as the handicapping.

Take last month for example.
I scraped together a couple months savings, to put $320 into an account to wager with.

By the evening of March 15th I had already won $352 between Aqueduct and Gulfstream.

At that point I was 15 days and 157 wagers into the month. My bankroll was now at $1,400.

I had no big wins, and my wagering was primarily WPS. Everything was carefully calculated according to grinding style. Although my bankroll was now 4.375 times my initial investment, My ROI was what most here would call small (1.10). The growth was from exponential growth, not a couple big exotics.

Of the 157 wagers I had hit 93 (or 59%).

Even though I had passed my goal for the day, I decided to there was a horse at Charles Town that I felt I had an edge on. I lost about $100, in a carefully calculated bet, following my rules (as I had been for the entire 15 days). I lost, as I had been doing 41% of the time so far.

This time was different. In a fit of rage, like a spoiled child, I randomly bet the next favorite I saw for $1300. The horse had nothing to do with the things I look for. Obviously 100% of my bankroll had nothing to do with my careful wager-size strategy. But for some reason, I went temporarily insane and kicked down the the nice castle i had been building with the building blocks. Chasing the insignificant $100 that I had lost, and I threw away half a month of hard work, and a promising start that may have lead to something.

This game is incredibly hard.

I can completely relate to 'steam losses' and they seem to happen when you LOVE a horse, do everything right, have all the right notes, have the right edge, KNOW for sure you have a specific logic and when the gates open and the race runs, something could happen on that track that makes you feel like this is your first day handicapping horses.

The result can go so far from what you think is supposed to happen that can get you really pissed off, i know that happens to all of us from time to time.

When i love a situation and make a larger than normal play and the bets are all in and there's a few minutes to post (or 1 minute to post) i start telling myself "this is a larger than normal wager, its a wager that's a little above my comfort zone, its horse racing and its a difficult game and even though i feel super confident i'm doing the right thing, its entirely possible things won't go my way"

I drum it into my head before the race that i'm doing the right thing and i LOVE my bet.

I feel your pain RF, i know that the long grind it takes to win some money and then one bad day or one bad decision can wipe it all out and it just doesnt seem fair that all the blood, sweat and tears it takes to make X amount of dollars and it all can get wiped away in a NY minute.

It should take just as long to lose it back as it does to make it, unfortunately, that's not how it works which makes this the hardest game on earth.

[OCF]

Thanks for posting your story RF, I can so see myself doing the same thing. Both the grinding out part and the one bet that wipes it all out part.

[barn32]

Unfortunately, your story is not atypical.

I knew a man back in the 70s who lost his home playing $2 limit poker.

I knew a lady who left her two young children in the car while she went into the casino and gambled.

I knew a man who gambled away his restaurant receipts each night playing poker. He lost a lot of money every night, and I never once saw him have a winning session. Many months later he was in a dark hallway trying to borrow $20 off of a poker dealer.

There was a poker room manager in Las Vegas in charge of a very large yearly tournament who skimmed money off the re-buy events to feed his $5 minimum video poker habit. He got caught and was blacklisted.

A friend of mine (loosely speaking) who dealt poker at the Palace Station many years ago helped some shady characters set up a poker jackpot with a cold-deck so he could pay off his loan-shark type debts. At first they didn't get caught, but when one of the supervisors reviewed the video the next day while doing some paper work, out of the corner of his eye he noticed that the cut looked very shady and knew they'd been had. "My buddy" ratted everyone out, and got ten years probation.

I knew another man who ran a nursing home and lost all of the money he could embezzle playing poker.

A very famous poker player (currently on the scene) lost his beautiful home in Las Vegas betting sports. Sports betting keeps this gambler perpetually broke.

I've known two people who committed suicide over gambling losses.

Joe E. Brown, the famous comedian and actor, back in the 40s or 50s basically worked for free as a host in one of the strip casinos and just handed over his check each week to the casino owner to cover his gambling debts. (Reference: When the Mob ran Vegas (http://www.amazon.com/When-Mob-Ran-Vegas-Stories/dp/0977065804))

And last but not least there is the story of a very young man who bet every dime he had on a dead-mortal-lock-cinch to show only to have it run out of the money. (Me)

[Saratoga_Mike]

And there are also plenty of businesses started that rapidly go into the toilet...ever watch "Kitchen Nightmares" with Chef Ramsay on FOX?
I've lost count of the number of restaurants he's gone to help save whose owners tell him they are so far in debt, that if the restaurant goes out of business, they will lose their house and be out on the street...

How much different is that than gambling your money away?

Both "businesses" are being run by people who obviously don't know what they are doing, and yet they keep throwing good money after bad until they're in so deep, they're basically ****ed...

As I was posting my response, I was thinking of that program and the thousands of restaurants that fail every yr (I really was - funny that you used the same example!). So what's the difference? In my opinion, there's a psychological addiction aspect associated with problem gamblers that, in general, isn't present when someone starts up a restaurant or some other business. Please note I caveated that with an "in general." I do appreciate your point, though. And I think Chef Ramsey is great.

[Greyfox]

Thanks for posting your story RF, I can so see myself doing the same thing. Both the grinding out part and the one bet that wipes it all out part.

Yes. Thanks for posting that Robert.

Unlike OCF though, I cannot see myself doing the same thing, but I know many who have done that.

With a tide of tracks going 364 days a year I know that there will always be another wave to surf tomorrow.

Hopefully, you'll learn from that somewhat irrational risk.

Remember: You haven't won anything at the race track until you've spent your winnings elsewhere.

[Greyfox]

And there are also plenty of businesses started that rapidly go into the toilet...ever watch "Kitchen Nightmares" with Chef Ramsay on FOX?

I've lost count of the number of restaurants he's gone to help save whose owners tell him they are so far in debt, that if the restaurant goes out of business, they will lose their house and be out on the street...

How much different is that than gambling your money away?

Both "businesses" are being run by people who obviously don't know what they are doing, and yet they keep throwing good money after bad until they're in so deep, they're basically ****ed...

Good points.

I don't want to sidetrack this thread, but in the United Kingdom the majority of restaurants that Chef Ramsey has tried to help have ultimately failed.

See link: http://www.fanpop.com/clubs/gordon-ramsay/articles/2959/title/only-8-restaurants-from-kitchen-nightmares-still-open

The same might be true for horse racing as well.
Some players are determined to lose no matter who helps them and how many books they read.
They'd be better off knitting mitts in the long run.

[PaceAdvantage]

I know this is nitpicking, but I did spell his name correctly - Ramsay...I know, I thought it was Ramsey too until I looked it up one day...lol

I wouldn't have said anything, but first Saratoga Mike and now Greyfox... ;)

[Greyfox]

I know this is nitpicking, but I did spell his name correctly - Ramsay...I know, I thought it was Ramsey too until I looked it up one day...lol

I wouldn't have said anything, but first Saratoga Mike and now Greyfox... ;)

Right you are. I must have been influenced by the condom brand without the y.

[traynor]

Good points.

I don't want to sidetrack this thread, but in the United Kingdom the majority of restaurants that Chef Ramsey has tried to help have ultimately failed.

See link: http://www.fanpop.com/clubs/gordon-ramsay/articles/2959/title/only-8-restaurants-from-kitchen-nightmares-still-open

The same might be true for horse racing as well.
Some players are determined to lose no matter who helps them and how many books they read.
They'd be better off knitting mitts in the long run.

In may well be that the "problem" is not horse racing, but rather that certain types of personalities are attracted to self-destructive behavior that can be disguised (at least to themselves) and conducted under some other label that is less ego-threatening than "self-destructive behavior." For those people, the activity is of less importance than the outcome.

Lumping such behavior into the mix and declaring wagering in general, or wagering on horse races in particular, as the source of a "problem" is misguided. As others have pointed out, there is little difference between losing your life savings betting on horse races, and losing your life savings by investing in some flaky business endeavor one is unqualified to consider, much less make successful.

I think the massive failure rate of "new businesses" should be considered in exactly the same light as losing at the track as far as underlying "reasons" are concerned. That is, those intent on losing will always find a way to do it. With horse racing, Igor Kusyshyn had it down pat when he said, "When I lose, I console myself with the fact that I did it scientifically."

[Greyfox]

In may well be that the "problem" is not horse racing, but rather that certain types of personalities are attracted to self-destructive behavior that can be disguised (at least to themselves) and conducted under some other label that is less ego-threatening than "self-destructive behavior." For those people, the activity is of less importance than the outcome.

Lumping such behavior into the mix and declaring wagering in general, or wagering on horse races in particular, as the source of a "problem" is misguided. As others have pointed out, there is little difference between losing your life savings betting on horse races, and losing your life savings by investing in some flaky business endeavor one is unqualified to consider, much less make successful.

I think the massive failure rate of "new businesses" should be considered in exactly the same light as losing at the track as far as underlying "reasons" are concerned. That is, those intent on losing will always find a way to do it. With horse racing, Igor Kusyshyn had it down pat when he said, "When I lose, I console myself with the fact that I did it scientifically."

I agree for the most part in what you are saying.

I will point out though that if you check with many successful small business owners, I think that you will find that the majority failed in their first entrepreneurial efforts.
Whatever mistakes they made the first time round, were not likely to be repeated again. They learned from their failures.

Unfortunately, many gamblers do not learn from their failures and continue to repeat the same bad habits.

[traynor]

I agree for the most part in what you are saying.

I will point out though that if you check with many successful small business owners, I think that you will find that the majority failed in their first entrepreneurial efforts.
Whatever mistakes they made the first time round, were not likely to be repeated again. They learned from their failures.

Unfortunately, many gamblers do not learn from their failures and continue to repeat the same bad habits.

Statistics don't support the premise of learned success. The failure rate of startup businesses is abysmal, regardless of the experience of the starters. Lots of people with lots of experience fail regularly--from sole proprietorships to corporate spinoffs.

[Dave Schwartz]

I will point out though that if you check with many successful small business owners, I think that you will find that the majority failed in their first entrepreneurial efforts.
Whatever mistakes they made the first time round, were not likely to be repeated again. They learned from their failures.

I can agree with this most of the way.

However, I can also think of examples (from people I have known) who are failures at business because they have not got a clue and have no interest in getting one.

Case #1: A woman who told her husband that she always wanted to open a "craft shop." (Really? You've got to be kidding.) A month later (Why did it take so long?) they had a 2-year lease on a store at $5k per month, $40k worth of inventory that looked like beads and trinkets you'd see at a flea market, and a contract to purchase $2,500 per month for a year!

The store never opened. Six months later he realized that her "little dream" had cost him $150k after buying his way out of all the contracts. BTW, then she divorced him after taking his one credit card to a car dealer and buying a $30k car (but that is another story).


Case #2: A husband and wife who always wanted to own their own business. Since she had always been a good cook and he had worked in food service, they decided that a restaurant was a great idea. They mortgaged their house to the hilt and picked a spot which had always had restaurants in it.

Why did they not consider that over the last 20 years there had been nothing but restaurants in that spot that had failed, including several franchises and company stores? Why did they think that with no restaurant experience at all they could succeed where others with much more experience and resources had failed?

To make it worse, this is Reno, NV: the most difficult restaurant market in the country, where 2-for-1 deals abound. (How do you compete with buffets where two people can have a sumptuous lunch for under $12 total?)


My point is that there will always be people who will enter into a business they simply have no right to succeed in.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Statistics don't support the premise of learned success. The failure rate of startup businesses is abysmal, regardless of the experience of the starters. Lots of people with lots of experience fail regularly--from sole proprietorships to corporate spinoffs.

Interesting. Could you please provide such stats? Thanks.

[BIG49010]

Interesting. Could you please provide such stats? Thanks.

http://www.statisticbrain.com/startup-failure-by-industry/

[Saratoga_Mike]

http://www.statisticbrain.com/startup-failure-by-industry/

Thanks - interesting stuff, but it doesn't address Traynor's claim about success or failure of follow-on business ventures.

[pondman]

I think the massive failure rate of "new businesses" should be considered in exactly the same light as losing at the track as far as underlying "reasons" are concerned.

I currently am a partner in Quickbooks Advisor business. We do accounting for Tech Startups in Northern California. Of the 150 businesses we have done business with only 2 have gone on to get a 2nd round of financing by an Angel Investor. These both sold for millions. The other 99% go bust. The odds are miserable in the Tech Industry. There are plenty of dreamers in business. I'd say the Tech record is worse than horse playing.

[Capper Al]

We've seen others do it...and have, no doubt, done it many times ourselves.

We begin our wagering day with a definitive plan in mind, and start off by making the exact plays that we intended to make. But the nature of the game is such that we are guaranteed to lose much more often than we can win...so the most likely scenario will find us "in the hole" -- often substantially -- some time during the day's play. How we react to such situations not only defines us as players...but sometimes determines our overall financial future as well.

I frequent the OTBs more than probably anyone here...and, as a result, have become acquainted with a number of regular players -- and have gotten quite friendly with some of them. And, invariably, I notice a great metamorphosis taking place in almost all of them, whenever they are put under the adversity of facing the likelihood of a losing day of betting. They start pressing to get even, either by increasing the size of their wagers...or by starting to bet on almost every race they see, in one way or another. Sometimes they do both. Qatar

It's as if tomorrow will never come, and today's outcome is the most important consideration there is.

The long-term result is always catastrophic...and always painful even to be around.

I have known "Bob" for close to 30 years...and have always considered him to be a great guy and a good family man. An engineer by profession, he has worked hard to achieve the finer things in life...and always handles himself with dignity and class -- something that is not so easy for a regular horseplayer to carry out.

I walked into the OTB about a week ago and found him sitting at his table alone...so I sat down with him, as I often do. But this time his attitude was different, and I could feel it. There obviously was some great problem hanging in the air, and he was looking at me as if he wanted to discuss it, but couldn't find the words.

"What is it, Bob", I asked him..."is there something you want to tell me?"

What he told me was staggering...and I have been rolling it in my head all week. And I want to share it with you too...because there is a great message in it for all of us "serious players".

He told me that he had worked hard as an engineer for many years, and was always looking forward to retirement...which he thought would come in a couple of years. He had an excellent profit-sharing plan at work...which he had seen grow to a very healthy level...and which, coupled with his retirement package, would more than take care of himself and his wife during their twilight years.

But things started going awry a couple of years ago...when he decided that he had the required skill to take this game "a little more seriously"...

His journey as a "serious player" started with heavy losses, and the losses could not be covered by his paycheck...which had to be brought home to cover his family's living expenses. So...he decided to start withdrawing money from his profit-sharing plan -- without his wife's knowledge.

As the losses accumulated -- and retirement came freightenly nearer -- he started withdrawing, and wagering, more aggressively...trying to "get even", so that his misdeed could go unnoticed by his family. But it was not to be.

The losses piled up...and the urge to get even grew in intensity. Caution was thrown to the wind...and the end result was catastrophic.

He told me that...not only had he, in about two years, completely depleted the profit-sharing account that he and his family had relied on for their retirement...but that he had also found himself in debt for several thousands of dollars to some local riff-raff that is usually found around tracks and OTBs. The "juice" on that money could not be concealed from his family any longer...he told me...and he would have to come clean about his "situation" a little sooner than he had hoped.

He "knew" what his family's reaction would be...he told me...and he honestly didn't know what to do. There was only "darkness" all around him...he said.

As I said...I've been around racetracks and OTBs for many years, and horror stories of this type are nothing new to me. But I thought I could distinguish those with catastrophic tendencies from those with a more healthy outlook on the game...and I was shocked to have been proven so wrong in this case.

I mean...this man had been a gentleman in every way during the entire 30 years that I have known him...and had, himself, helped people in financial distress in the past. He is also a very knowledgeable player...who obviously should have known better than to find himself in a predicament such as this.

We talk lightly about this game sometimes...to the point where we forget that it sometimes becomes much more than just a "game". There is a very addictive nature to it...and it is surprisingly easy for one to lose not only his money, but himself as well.

The aphorism "Man, know thyself" is especially applicable at the race track.

If a person does not know himself...then the race track should be the last place he should visit, to find out...

This happened to my father and is why I'll go bet big with the tracks money.

[myhorse1]

This game is hard to begin with, and then on top of the difficulty of the game itself, = you have the mental game.

That mental game can be as hard as the handicapping.

Take last month for example.
I scraped together a couple months savings, to put $320 into an account to wager with.

By the evening of March 15th I had already won $352 between Aqueduct and Gulfstream.

At that point I was 15 days and 157 wagers into the month. My bankroll was now at $1,400.

I had no big wins, and my wagering was primarily WPS. Everything was carefully calculated according to grinding style. Although my bankroll was now 4.375 times my initial investment, My ROI was what most here would call small (1.10). The growth was from exponential growth, not a couple big exotics.

Of the 157 wagers I had hit 93 (or 59%).

Even though I had passed my goal for the day, I decided to there was a horse at Charles Town that I felt I had an edge on. I lost about $100, in a carefully calculated bet, following my rules (as I had been for the entire 15 days). I lost, as I had been doing 41% of the time so far.

This time was different. In a fit of rage, like a spoiled child, I randomly bet the next favorite I saw for $1300. The horse had nothing to do with the things I look for. Obviously 100% of my bankroll had nothing to do with my careful wager-size strategy. But for some reason, I went temporarily insane and kicked down the the nice castle i had been building with the building blocks. Chasing the insignificant $100 that I had lost, and I threw away half a month of hard work, and a promising start that may have lead to something.

This game is incredibly hard.
1. in your case YOU made it much harder then it had to be. you had a working system and you trashed it.

2. in my opinion you were momentarily stupid--my best guess is you needed the action high-- you got bored with plodding along and the handicapping gods were waiting for you as they always are.

3. if your results are real --better this happens sooner rather then later where you could have lost both much more time and money and you are forewarned and don't turn into thaskalos's friend with everything down the tubes.

4.if you really want excitement AND your method of play is real--think about this-- approximately 10 wagers a day with an roi of 1.10 and instead of getting 4.375 times your investment in 15 days you were only able to get 1/4 of that which would be doubling your money in 30 days(which would be a not inconsiderable achievement) you would soon be betting more then enough to keep you focused (and you would remember not to go off system).



best of luck and best wishes

[traynor]

Interesting. Could you please provide such stats? Thanks.

Not interested in convincing you, or anyone else. The information is out there. If you are really interested, you should have little difficulty in locating it on your own. Or--as an alternative--you might consider publishing some stats on how those early failure-later success startups do as a group. I don't really care either way.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Not interested in convincing you, or anyone else. The information is out there. If you are really interested, you should have little difficulty in locating it on your own. Or--as an alternative--you might consider publishing some stats on how those early failure-later success startups do as a group. I don't really care either way.

Very helpful - thank you!

[OCF]

You played that one well, SM.

[traynor]

Very helpful - thank you!

De nada.

[badcompany]

And there are also plenty of businesses started that rapidly go into the toilet...ever watch "Kitchen Nightmares" with Chef Ramsay on FOX?

I've lost count of the number of restaurants he's gone to help save whose owners tell him they are so far in debt, that if the restaurant goes out of business, they will lose their house and be out on the street...

How much different is that than gambling your money away?

Both "businesses" are being run by people who obviously don't know what they are doing, and yet they keep throwing good money after bad until they're in so deep, they're basically ****ed...

The skills learned in running a business, even a failed one, can be utilized elsewhere. The failed restaurant owner might be able to land a job as a restaurant manager.

Where the does busted out gambler use those skills?

[PaceAdvantage]

The skills learned in running a business, even a failed one, can be utilized elsewhere. The failed restaurant owner might be able to land a job as a restaurant manager.

Where the does busted out gambler use those skills?Like the failed restaurant owner, hopefully, the busted out gambler learns from his or her mistakes and either becomes a better bettor or gets out of the game while he or she still can...

[Stillriledup]

The skills learned in running a business, even a failed one, can be utilized elsewhere. The failed restaurant owner might be able to land a job as a restaurant manager.

Where the does busted out gambler use those skills?

Tries to get a job as TVG analyst?

[traynor]

The skills learned in running a business, even a failed one, can be utilized elsewhere. The failed restaurant owner might be able to land a job as a restaurant manager.

Where the does busted out gambler use those skills?

I have difficulty imagining why any prospective employer would consider the skill set of a failed entrepreneur of value in a managerial position. The failed business would seem to indicate a lack of managerial skills, rather than valuable experience.

[badcompany]

I have difficulty imagining why any prospective employer would consider the skill set of a failed entrepreneur of value in a managerial position. The failed business would seem to indicate a lack of managerial skills, rather than valuable experience.


It takes a lot of know-how and ability just to get a business up and running, and if it does fail, it's often because of circumstances beyond the control of the owner: the landlord raises the rent to the point where there's no profit to be had; a company whose employees provided much of the business' clientele decides to relocate; a change in technology makes the business model obsolete. Government regulations and taxation make it impossible to do business.

[Tom]

Donald Trump went bankrupt once.
Then built it all back up again.


Where the does busted out gambler use those skills?
At the track. He learns why he failed, and he makes proper adjustments.

[badcompany]

Donald Trump went bankrupt once.
Then built it all back up again.



At the track. He learns why he failed, and he makes proper adjustments.

So, what does he do for money?

I don't think banks would be as quick to lend money to a broke horseplayer as they would to Donald Trump.:lol:

[Greyfox]

Donald Trump went bankrupt once.
Then built it all back up again.
.

Careful Tom. Donald Trump never ever declared personal bankruptcy.
He used Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection 4 times on his casino and hotel properties. In doing so several creditors probably got "screwed royally."

See link below:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/clareoconnor/2011/04/29/fourth-times-a-charm-how-donald-trump-made-bankruptcy-work-for-him/

"First things first: Donald Trump (http://www.forbes.com/profile/donald-trump/) has filed for corporate bankruptcy four times, in 1991, 1992, 2004 and 2009. All of these bankruptcies were connected to over-leveraged casino and hotel properties in Atlantic City (http://www.forbes.com/places/nj/atlantic-city/), all of which are now operated under the banner of Trump Entertainment Resorts (http://www.trumpcasinos.com/). He has never filed for personal bankruptcy — an important distinction when considering his ability to emerge relatively unscathed, at least financially."

[traynor]

It takes a lot of know-how and ability just to get a business up and running, and if it does fail, it's often because of circumstances beyond the control of the owner: the landlord raises the rent to the point where there's no profit to be had; a company whose employees provided much of the business' clientele decides to relocate; a change in technology makes the business model obsolete. Government regulations and taxation make it impossible to do business.

The major cause for startup business failures is generally poor record-keeping (does that sound familiar?) in conjunction with unrealistic expectations. Even those can be overcome if enough business is generated--it is the combination of the failure to generate enough business (to be profitable) coupled with poor management that leads to most business failures. The failed business owner/entrepreneur (much like the losing bettor) is quick to attribute failure to externals "beyond his or her control."

I am not picking on entrepreneurs, or on failed business owners. As Dave Schwartz commented, some are simply unprepared (in this case, "playing business" rather than "playing the ponies") for the task. In short, just as with losing bettors, many business failures can be directly associated with the failure to learn how it is done.

As for taking skill to get a business up and running, that is the easy part. It is generating sufficient new and repeat business--on an ongoing basis--to keep it running that leads to a high failure rate.

If you talk to a few corporate headhunters, or even hiring managers, I think most would agree that claiming experience as an entrepreur/business owner/"consultant"/independent contractor is probably worse than declaring that one was unemployed or in prison during that period of time.

[thaskalos]

If you talk to a few corporate headhunters, or even hiring managers, I think most would agree that claiming experience as an entrepreur/business owner/"consultant"/independent contractor is probably worse than declaring that one was unemployed or in prison during that period of time.

And deservedly so...

IMO...the worst mistake a businessman can make is to hire a failed entrepreneur/business owner/"consultant"/independent contractor as an employee.

[OCF]

I wonder how may horseplayers, taking on a task with many entrepreneurial aspects, are long-time wage earners with pretty much not an entrepreneurial bone in their body?

That may be a subtle attraction of the game; you drag youself to and from a business that somebody else owns Monday through Friday, wake up Saturday, stick some cash in your pocket, go to the track, buy a Form, sit down at your table/"desk" and voila, you're in business! Whether you have any aptitude for it or not.

[Greyfox]

If you talk to a few corporate headhunters, or even hiring managers, I think most would agree that claiming experience as an entrepreur/business owner/"consultant"/independent contractor is probably worse than declaring that one was unemployed or in prison during that period of time.

Independent of the fact that Thask has agreed with you on this, that generalization is a huge stretch. I'm not buying that.

[traynor]

Independent of the fact that Thask has agreed with you on this, that generalization is a huge stretch. I'm not buying that.

That is great, because I am not selling it. If you are really interested in the real world, take a couple of years of graduate level business management courses focused on entrepreneurial endeavors. Lots of good information on what to do, and what not to do--and why. Put that on top of 20 years or so starting, building, running, and managing successful start-ups. It will give you a whole different perspective.

[pondman]

The major cause for startup business failures is generally poor record-keeping .

Lack of a good model or plan?

[Greyfox]

That is great, because I am not selling it. If you are really interested in the real world, take a couple of years of graduate level business management courses focused on entrepreneurial endeavors. Lots of good information on what to do, and what not to do--and why. Put that on top of 20 years or so starting, building, running, and managing successful start-ups. It will give you a whole different perspective.

For cripes sake, you have no idea what I've done in life.


"If you talk to a few corporate headhunters, or even hiring managers, I think most would agree that claiming experience as an entrepreur/business owner/"consultant"/independent contractor is probably worse than declaring that one was unemployed or in prison during that period of time."

The comment that you made above is typical academia b.s. made by some college professor and you bought it hook, line, and sinker.
I doubt that you've ever heard a "head hunter" ever say that and certainly someone with a prison stain on their resume ain't gonna agree with it.

[pondman]

That is great, because I am not selling it. If you are really interested in the real world, take a couple of years of graduate level business management courses focused on entrepreneurial endeavors. Lots of good information on what to do, and what not to do--and why. .


Enron would only hire MBAs with a +3.5 gpa.

None of the successful people I associate with every day have advance degrees in management. You are describing a government bureacrat or an academic-- people who create very little.

People who succeed in business often have a record of failure. Eventually, they find a good model. Similarly, most players fail at the track, until they develop their own models that works.

[Saratoga_Mike]

For cripes sake, you have no idea what I've done in life.


"If you talk to a few corporate headhunters, or even hiring managers, I think most would agree that claiming experience as an entrepreur/business owner/"consultant"/independent contractor is probably worse than declaring that one was unemployed or in prison during that period of time."

The comment that you made above is typical academia b.s. made by some college professor and you bought it hook, line, and sinker.
I doubt that you've ever heard a "head hunter" ever say that and certainly someone with a prison stain on their resume ain't gonna agree with it.

Just remember he's not trying to convince you of anything - and he certainly doesn't care if you agree or disagree with his assertions and/or many assumptions :rolleyes:

[precocity]

Donald Trump went bankrupt once.
Then built it all back up again.



At the track. He learns why he failed, and he makes proper adjustments.
tom,tom,tom :D his adjustments would be asking for money?

[badcompany]

tom,tom,tom :D his adjustments would be asking for money?

Considering the habits of the broke gambler: panhandling, lying, cheating and stealing, Politics would be logical career path, especially, here in New York State. :cool:

[thaskalos]

Considering the habits of the broke gambler: panhandling, lying, cheating and stealing, Politics would be logical career path, especially, here in New York State. :cool:

Either politics or religion. :cool:

[traynor]

Lack of a good model or plan?

Yes and no. One of the big issues is taking shortcuts, like bypassing such niceties as liability insurance, Worker's Compensation, unemployment insurance payments, and such like. Usually swept under the carpet as "oppressive goverment interference in business." Business owner starts up with good intentions to keep it legal and legitimate, but soon realizes that the profit margin is insufficient to cover the overhead that larger (and more successful) businesses consider a bar to entry. What the new business owner considers "profit" is the overhead that does not go where it should, but is rather diverted into the pocket or bank account.

What is normally left out of the records is the "cost of doing business." It is a little more complex than that, but not much. Larger businesses complain about the unfair competition from minimally regulated start-ups, the start-ups complain about the "oppressive" regulation.

Business plans are a lot like betting on horse races--lots of high hopes and unrealistic expectations that rarely work out according to plan.

[traynor]

For cripes sake, you have no idea what I've done in life.


"If you talk to a few corporate headhunters, or even hiring managers, I think most would agree that claiming experience as an entrepreur/business owner/"consultant"/independent contractor is probably worse than declaring that one was unemployed or in prison during that period of time."

The comment that you made above is typical academia b.s. made by some college professor and you bought it hook, line, and sinker.
I doubt that you've ever heard a "head hunter" ever say that and certainly someone with a prison stain on their resume ain't gonna agree with it.

You couldn't be more wrong.

[Capper Al]

Either politics or religion. :cool:

There's a lot of truth to this.

[traynor]

Enron would only hire MBAs with a +3.5 gpa.

None of the successful people I associate with every day have advance degrees in management. You are describing a government bureacrat or an academic-- people who create very little.

People who succeed in business often have a record of failure. Eventually, they find a good model. Similarly, most players fail at the track, until they develop their own models that works.

Whatever. Apparently you have not had much experience with (or contact with) managers or executives in large businesses. There is a bit more involved than shuffling papers from one side of the desk to the other.

[traynor]

Many entrepreneurs and business start-ups are acts of desperation by people who cannot get jobs in their field of expertise. No one will hire them--either because they lack the skills needed to be competitive in a corporate environment (the overwhelming majority of software developers and programmers, for example) or they are unable to work in a corporate setting. That is, unless they are the (self-appointed, self-employed) "superstar", everyone sees they ain't got no shine. That is the why most fail.

The basic question asked by corporate headhunters and hiring managers of those claiming "experience" as entrepreneurs/consultants/"independent contractors"--if they bother to go beyond the one-page quickie resume--is, "If you are so good at what you do, why are you here?"

Anyone who doesn't realize that needs to get out of the house more.

[PaceAdvantage]

The basic question asked by corporate headhunters and hiring managers of those claiming "experience" as entrepreneurs/consultants/"independent contractors"--if they bother to go beyond the one-page quickie resume--is, "If you are so good at what you do, why are you here?"Couldn't they ask that same question of basically ANYONE they encounter? "If you're so good..." why hasn't anyone (your current/former employer for instance) kept you all to themselves? Why is this person out looking for another job? Why haven't they been snatched up already?

[traynor]

Couldn't they ask that same question of basically ANYONE they encounter? "If you're so good..." why hasn't anyone (your current/former employer for instance) kept you all to themselves? Why is this person out looking for another job? Why haven't they been snatched up already?

Yes, and they often do. The situation is substantially muddied by restrictions (legal) on what kind of information can be provided by previous employers (without fear of legal actions against them).

The basic schema is that anyone (in "fast-moving" fields) who has been in the same job for more than two years is either a hack or has no ambition. There is only one real reason for looking for a new job--upward mobility in one's career. If the new job does not represent improvement--in salary, perks, potential--applying for it is seen as suspect.

The situation may be different in less competitive career fields, in which the problem of being "over-qualified" is less likely.

[Robert Goren]

I had a boss who the company got from a headhunter. The company assumed the the headhunter had check him out thoroughly. They were wrong. I don't know how much of his work record was phony, I am sure part of it was. I know that he didn't have the college degree he claimed he had. Our nosy office manager discovered that he had never even attended the college he claimed to have a degree from. They were in a rush to fill the spot and they made a huge mistake which eventually cost them the contract.

[traynor]

I had a boss who the company got from a headhunter. The company assumed the the headhunter had check him out thoroughly. They were wrong. I don't know how much of his work record was phony, I am sure part of it was. I know that he didn't have the college degree he claimed he had. Our nosy office manager discovered that he had never even attended the college he claimed to have a degree from. They were in a rush to fill the spot and they made a huge mistake which eventually cost them the contract.

That happens a lot more often than many would like to admit. It has to do with who makes the decisions. If the decision can be based on someone else's recommendation (in your case, the headhunter's), it removes much of the responsibility. Much of a manager's (or executive's) working life is taken up by evading responsibility for screwups, while taking credit for successes.

[Tom]

A good reason to be mobicentric is to be long gone by the time your true value is realized! :eek:

[WP1981]

Some days it just isn't going to happen. Professional bettors have off days, in racing or sports. Stock traders will have losing trades. Card counters have plenty of losing days as well.

Not sure how to give advice on self discipline. If someone is a good handicapper but really weak with self discipline, they should limit their wagers. I've talked in the past about blind betting; I think for many the advantages are greater than the drawbacks, especially for anyone inclined to chase. The advantages are you are only betting the races in which you have the strongest opinion(s). The other obvious advantage is you don't chase because you can't. You're not there. No, you don't get to see the odds. Learn to make your own line and project. No, you don't get to see the paddock and post parade.

Can always record the races, or watch later online.

Excellent post.

I am slowly finding that this was a major leak of mine, with a different twist. I try to handicap the day out and just bet those races and normally find success in one way or another. I enjoy being at he otb with the food, waitresses and characters. When it comes time to cash out and head home, I will look up at the screens and say "Where am I going? We can find a few bombs at Los Al, Charles Town, etc, etc, etc,". It is a decision that I always regret and I severely hurt my profit margin. What doesn't help is that I will have occasional winning night's and the big night losses come within a day or two of them. I am sure most of us OTB dwellers have been there.

I can trust myself to not return until the next day if I do leave. So I have just picked a new place to eat lunch. :)

[Robert Fischer]

A good reason to be mobicentric is to be long gone by the time your true value is realized! :eek:
:D
unfortunately (or fortunately) that could work both ways :/

[Robert Fischer]

"experience" as "entrepreneurs/consultants/"independent contractors"

If I ever get to the point where my returns from the ponies have plateaued at an acceptable level, one of things I would like to do is expand to business consulting.

Rather than build from scratch in the very tough game of running a business, I would personally be much better at looking at what a current business has going for it, and at seeing the system in which that business operates.
Sure, on rare occasions there would at be such a high ceiling, that ownership would be favorable, but in general - I would look to improve rather than start-up or acquire.

The occupation of horseplaying is weird enough for our society to grasp as it is, and maybe it is especially odd to think of it as a stepping stone for something like consulting. The resume thing with unemployment, jail, and horseplaying can't be too far ahead (or behind!).
Realistically, a resume becomes obsolete eventually - (like Doc in Back to the Future "Where you're going there are no roads!)/ - resumes. Having the capital to eat your mistakes, and to even influence/manipulate some of the system that I see would be surprisingly effective.

[shouldacoulda]

This is a really sad story. Unfortunately most people don't realize, that if you can't do it with two dollar bets. you're not going to do it with $2000 bets or 2 million Dollar bets.

[HUSKER55]

good point!:ThmbUp:

[pondman]

Many entrepreneurs and business start-ups are acts of desperation by people who cannot get jobs in their field of expertise. No one will hire them--either because they lack the skills needed to be competitive in a corporate environment (the overwhelming majority of software developers and programmers, for example) or they are unable to work in a corporate setting. That is, unless they are the (self-appointed, self-employed) "superstar", everyone sees they ain't got no shine. That is the why most fail.

You've got it backwards. Only a few people can run a business.-- maybe 10%. There rest of the population needs to find a job in a bureaucracy, sucking the life out of equity or public money, because they don't have the skills or resources to run a business. The overwhelming majority of failures in business, that is often quoted as 85%, are the result of being young. The rate of failure in business dramatically decreases as a person ages.

In context of this thread, there is little difference within the world of horse playing.

[traynor]

You've got it backwards. Only a few people can run a business.-- maybe 10%. There rest of the population needs to find a job in a bureaucracy, sucking the life out of equity or public money, because they don't have the skills or resources to run a business. The overwhelming majority of failures in business, that is often quoted as 85%, are the result of being young. The rate of failure in business dramatically decreases as a person ages.

In context of this thread, there is little difference within the world of horse playing.

Do some research. I think you are the one who has it backwards.

[traynor]

You've got it backwards. Only a few people can run a business.-- maybe 10%. There rest of the population needs to find a job in a bureaucracy, sucking the life out of equity or public money, because they don't have the skills or resources to run a business. The overwhelming majority of failures in business, that is often quoted as 85%, are the result of being young. The rate of failure in business dramatically decreases as a person ages.

In context of this thread, there is little difference within the world of horse playing.

"There are an estimated 10.6 million self-employed jobs in the US, a 14.4% increase from 2001. From 2006-2008, this group of workers declined nearly 5% before employment mostly leveled off.
Self-employed workers make on average $26,921 — more than half the annual average of the total workforce ($56,053).
The self-employed population includes a large segment of older workers. Over 30% (3.25 million workers) are 55 or older; this includes more than a million workers who are at least 65. Another 28.2% of self-employed workers are 45-54.
Thirty percent of all self-employed jobs are in the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industry. Another 24% are classified under the construction industry.
The largest self-employed occupations in the US are child care workers (an estimated 556,523 jobs in 2012), carpenters (459,116 jobs), maids & housekeeping cleaners (441,551), farmers & ranchers (437,999), and construction laborers (380,226)."
Citation: http://www.economicmodeling.com/2012/07/18/characteristics-of-the-self-employed/

The majority of "self-employed" have been previously referred to by much less dignified labels. They are "self-employed" because no one will hire them, and they do whatever work they can for whoever they can. That is a long, long way from "successful businesspeople." And realize that these are only those on the radar--there are hundreds of thousands of programmers and software developers (and other "technical" fields) working for peanuts, and happy to do so.

[raybo]

"There are an estimated 10.6 million self-employed jobs in the US, a 14.4% increase from 2001. From 2006-2008, this group of workers declined nearly 5% before employment mostly leveled off.
Self-employed workers make on average $26,921 — more than half the annual average of the total workforce ($56,053).
The self-employed population includes a large segment of older workers. Over 30% (3.25 million workers) are 55 or older; this includes more than a million workers who are at least 65. Another 28.2% of self-employed workers are 45-54.
Thirty percent of all self-employed jobs are in the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industry. Another 24% are classified under the construction industry.
The largest self-employed occupations in the US are child care workers (an estimated 556,523 jobs in 2012), carpenters (459,116 jobs), maids & housekeeping cleaners (441,551), farmers & ranchers (437,999), and construction laborers (380,226)."
Citation: http://www.economicmodeling.com/2012/07/18/characteristics-of-the-self-employed/

The majority of "self-employed" have been previously referred to by much less dignified labels. They are "self-employed" because no one will hire them, and they do whatever work they can for whoever they can. That is a long, long way from "successful businesspeople." And realize that these are only those on the radar--there are hundreds of thousands of programmers and software developers (and other "technical" fields) working for peanuts, and happy to do so.

Don't forget all those who are "self-employed" and also employed or retired, at the same time. :cool:

[lamboguy]

i chase horses all the time. if i thing the horse is warrants my money on him the first time he runs and the horse don't run any good, i chase him the 2nd time out. often times they go off higher than the first time because they showed nothing in the afternoon. if i lose the 2nd time, i am all done chasing.

on the other hand, if the horse wins first out, i often come back with the same horse the 2nd time.

[riskman]

Steve Jobs was not one of my favorite businessmen yet he describes the entrepreneurs I encountered when I worked for a major Manhattan insurance brokerage/risk management firm. In preparing an analysis on their business insurance needs the traits below were were front and center in many cases. There are many skill sets required to be a entrepreneur but one that stands out in my conversations is that unless and you have the ability to go without a steady paycheck and subsidized benefits of at least a few years (ideally longer), you might hold off on quitting your day job.




"Here's to the crazy ones, the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers, the round pegs in the square holes... the ones who see things differently -- they're not fond of rules. You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them, but the only thing you can't do is ignore them because they change things... they push the human race forward, and while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius, because the ones who are crazy enough to think that they can change the world, are the ones who do." Steve Jobs

[thaskalos]

"Here's to the crazy ones, the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers, the round pegs in the square holes... the ones who see things differently -- they're not fond of rules. You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them, but the only thing you can't do is ignore them because they change things... they push the human race forward, and while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius, because the ones who are crazy enough to think that they can change the world, are the ones who do." Steve Jobs

"And then there are those of us who were perhaps destined for bigger and better things...but the race track interfered with our career plans. The game stood in the way of our formal education...and it distorted, in our minds, what real "work" should be. Just as the kids at the playground dream of becoming the next Kobe or Lebron...we dreamed of becoming the next Andy Beyer...and living by our wits. Like Beyer, we wanted to taste how delicious "uncertainty" was...and how great it felt to "know that you are alive".

If only someone could have told us how difficult this career path really was...

But then again, we probably wouldn't have listened anyway..." -- Thaskalos

[traynor]

Steve Jobs was not one of my favorite businessmen yet he describes the entrepreneurs I encountered when I worked for a major Manhattan insurance brokerage/risk management firm. In preparing an analysis on their business insurance needs the traits below were were front and center in many cases. There are many skill sets required to be a entrepreneur but one that stands out in my conversations is that unless and you have the ability to go without a steady paycheck and subsidized benefits of at least a few years (ideally longer), you might hold off on quitting your day job.




"Here's to the crazy ones, the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers, the round pegs in the square holes... the ones who see things differently -- they're not fond of rules. You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them, but the only thing you can't do is ignore them because they change things... they push the human race forward, and while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius, because the ones who are crazy enough to think that they can change the world, are the ones who do." Steve Jobs

That sounds like basic client qualification to me. Specifically, "don't waste your (our) time unless the client can afford your (our) services." Qualifying clients to assure they have deep pockets makes a lot of sense if one is selling them something. However, that may not be the best indicator of success--only that the client can afford the services being sold.

In that particular line, it seems reasonable to assume that if someone has gathered together enough assets to start a business using those criteria, they should keep doing whatever they did to gain those assets in the first place. To do otherwise seems as misguided as assuming one has to practice losing for many years before one can hope to begin winning.

Similarly, it is that "gather a lot of money to give to us before you start" attitude that makes people believe that if they follow the formulas, success will be almost automatic. I (and a LOT of other people) think the complete opposite--unless you have a product or service (or wagering method) that will flourish from the beginning, you should not even be considering starting a business (or wagering seriously). Specifically, unless you are able to generate a positive cash flow almost immediately, you are operating on such a thin margin (if any) that failure is almost guaranteed.


There is a saying (paraphrased for those with delicate ears), "If you can't exit the aircraft and hit the ground running and ready to fight, stay home." Business, wagering, and war have a lot in common.