PDA

View Full Version : Mr. Trifecta's Hoosier Park Picks 4/9/13


precisionk
04-09-2013, 12:57 PM
Great card tonight! Tough pick-4!


R1: #3-Blunt Force Trauma-1/1 TML......Very game winner last time out. Should be out on the lead and looking to wire the field. Short price.

Contenders:

#10-Acadia As-9/2 TML
#8-Jailhouse Jive-4/1 TML

R2: #8-Js Mcflash-7/5 TML......Draws to the outside after flashing some early speed in the first race. Should flash that hear as there isn't much early speed in the field.

Contenders:

#3-Lifetime Mattjic-4/1 TML
#9-Off Lika Promdress-5/1 TML

R3: #1-Ivy's American-6/1 TML......Closed nicely last time out from far back. Draws the rail here and should drop back again here. Need a good price to make it worthwhile. Mr. Trifecta's Longshot of the Night! Pick-4: 1,4,5 w 2,7 w 1,2,4 w 2,4,6 - $54

Contenders:

#4-Fantasy Sports-8/5 TML
#5-Champaignion-9/1 TML

R4: #2-Count The Cost-9/5 TML.....Ships over from Northfield. Pushed out nicely last time from the outside. Dillander aboard. Looking to stretch out with a good post. Should be out in front.

Contenders:

#7-Picture Maker-7/5 TML
#10-Elian Express-8/1 TML

R5: #2-No Habla-8/5 TML......Qualifier was good and can display some nice late kick. Should be stalking nicely here. Tetrick aboard.

Contenders:

#1-Victorian Style-4/1 TML
#4-Rebel At Heart-3/1 TML

R6: #6-Dip N Chips-5/2 TML......Qualifier was faster then anyone in the race at Hoosier. Off lasix looks to be working well. Should be stalking just off the lead.

Contenders:

#4-Droppinthekurtin-2/1 TML
#2-Twelve Twenty-8/1 TML

R7: #5-Shaint To Shabby-2/1 TML......Impressive 3Q move making up 12 lengths to get the victory. Goes against tough company again and looking for an improvement off the late close.

Contenders:

#2-Mystic Karissa-4/5 TML
#4-Hawaiian Angel-9/2 TML

R8: #8-Western Deal-2/1 TML......Hung in there last time out, but was out kicked late. Draws to the outside and is expected to get over quickly to get in a good stalking position. Needs live cover.

Contenders:

#2-Western Fox-2/1 TML
#1-Smokin Band-5/1 TML

R9: #4-Fritzie Chic-7/5 TML......2nd time lasix and wired the field last time out. Closed very well drawing off. Goes against tougher here, but should factor well.

Contenders:

#3-Annie Sez-3/1 TML
#8-Vestal Virgin-6/1 TML

R10: #1/1a-Laser Larry/JJ's Beat The Rap-1/1 TML......Very touch coupled entry. 1a was beaten soundly but did get 2nd. 1 shipping in from Lebanon showing strong trot through the finish. Mr. Trifecta's Lock of the Night!

Contenders:

#5-Old Aunt George-5/2 TML
#9-Stolen Crown 10/1 TML

R11: #8-Astarisontheway-2/1 TML......Made up nearly 12 lengths from 3q to stretch call. If this filly can stay closer to the pace, can use that late kick to romp on home instead of just catching up. Mr. Trifecta's Pick of the Night!

Contenders:

#3-JD's Infinite Lady-6/5 TML
#1-GM's Best Ann-5/2 TML

R12: #10-Camgrandest-7/2 TML......Qualifiers look good. Should be gobbling up ground late and should fetch a good price.

Contenders:

#2-Starven Darven-8/5 TML
#6-Powerful Odds-4/1 TML

Muddy
04-09-2013, 09:01 PM
40-1 Winner Cha Ching! Had WP on him.:ThmbUp:

precisionk
04-09-2013, 09:53 PM
40-1 Winner Cha Ching! Had WP on him.:ThmbUp:

I did too, just not enough for the top pick!

precisionk
04-09-2013, 11:23 PM
Fun fact of the evening. My 2nd choice won 7 of 12 races. :bang: :faint:

precisionk
04-09-2013, 11:34 PM
So frustrating. 2nd choice won 7 of 12 times and exotic less. Bright spot was the Pick-4 strike!


R1: 7,2,3 Show $2.60 Non-bet

R2: 8,6,3 Win $10.20....$4.00....$2.80

R3: Out

R4: Scratched 2nd choice 7,5,8 Win $8.00....$3.40....$3.00

R5: Out Non-bet

R6: Out Pick 4 Strike! $1 Pick-4 ticket for $54 pays $126.60!!

R7: 2,3,5 Show $2.40 Non-bet

R8: Out

R9: 5,4,7 Place $2.20....$2.10 Non-bet

R10: Out Non-bet

R11: Out

R12: 10,8,2 Win $8.40....$4.80....$2.80 Non-bet

All races: Win Rate 25%, Board Hit 50%, Wagered $158, Returned $26.60 (w/Pick-4 $153.20) , ROI -83% (w Pick-4 -38%)
Odds Line: Win Rate 33%, Board Hit 33%, Wagered $74, Returned $18.20 (w/Pick-4 144.80), ROI -75% (w/Pick-4 13%)

traynor
04-10-2013, 04:14 AM
Fun fact of the evening. My 2nd choice won 7 of 12 races. :bang: :faint:

You might consider those confounding variables that make the second choice the top choice. It is just a variation of the scenario that causes bettors to bet horses to win that should be bet to place.

You make some really solid choices, but something in the process of ranking those choices seems a bit out of whack. Again, the best information comes from your own records. A bit of checking back to discover the exact criteria you use to rank choices should enable you to locate whatever confounding variables are throwing you off.

Continuing to do something out of whack reinforces the out of whack process. A good thing to avoid.