Goldencents

[Valuist]

I'm trying to think back to celebrities that owned horses in the Derby, and how much that would impact the betting odds. Only two come to mind: Jacklin Klugman in the 1980 Derby, who was a contender, and Bobby Hurley's Songandaprayer, who was a pace presence in the ridiculously fast paced 2001 Derby, but was not a contender, by any means. I seem to remember Pitino may have had a Derby starter or two in the past, or at least runners on the Derby trail. But he never had a realistic contender until now.

He has to be considered one of the strong contenders in there, if not the favorite. I was underwhelmed by Verrazano's Wood Memorial. To prompt a pace that slow and not win easier than he did was not encouraging. The most impressive part of the Wood was Normandy Invasion's final 1/8th of a mile. Orb appears to mostly be an opportunist; he took advantage when Violence went too fast early, and when the 9th furlong proved too much for Itsmyluckyday.

Goldencents fits the template of a Derby winner: he had the 2 YO foundation, he has a trainer who just won the Derby last year, and most importantly, he was the best horse in the best Derby prep so far. We haven't seen the Ark Derby yet but I will be surprised if we get a 105 Beyer out of that race. The Blue Grass is totally irrelevant now as a Derby prep.

So will Goldencents be overbet in the win pool due to his famous owner? Almost certainly. But he probably won't be in the Pic 3s/4s/doubles/exactas and tris.

[precocity]

like CJ says look at the delta jackpot
click vid.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/74549/goldencents-takes-jackpot-wire-to-wire


ALL DEPENDS YOU KNOW THE DERBY BUT IF HE CAN RATE HE CAN WIN OR HIT THE BOARD.

[rastajenk]

Burt Bacharach had some nice ones in the 90's, but I don't think his celebrity would compare with Pitino's, in Louisville of all places, as far as dinging the odds.

[Valuist]

like CJ says look at the delta jackpot
click vid.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/74549/goldencents-takes-jackpot-wire-to-wire


ALL DEPENDS YOU KNOW THE DERBY BUT IF HE CAN RATE HE CAN WIN OR HIT THE BOARD.

That Delta Jackpot field is one of the better ones we've seen assembled so far: Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Mylute and Bern Identity in there. So it has produced the winner or runnerup in the SA Derby, the Florida Derby and the Louisiana Derby. Can definitely make the case the race should be a Grade 1.

[precocity]

go to the forums and read the Pitino thread unbelievable.

[precocity]

That Delta Jackpot field is one of the better ones we've seen assembled so far: Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Mylute and Bern Identity in there. So it has produced the winner or runnerup in the SA Derby, the Florida Derby and the Louisiana Derby. Can definitely make the case the race should be a Grade 1.
lmao at goldencents running the first 3 furlongs with his head to the right :D

[CincyHorseplayer]

Goldcents facing a bunch of like running styles had the bigger pace figures coming into the SA Derby and simply outran them if they chose the lead or they compromised themselves if they rated.But he finally finished strongly and IMO is one of the,if not thee best onpace horse.Looking at his breeding he is bred to be a miler on both sides and will face a more earnest early pace and 10 furlongs.

I think It'sMyLuckyday is a talented horse and will run very well come derby day but he,like GC is bred to be a miler on both sides.

Verrazano is the most interesting of the early pace types IMO.For one he might not be!He hasn't faced too tough a pace at all and inherited leads but I think he can rate and while the Wood was slow,they only need to run as fast as necessary.His sire has a miler stamina index but he has top notch distance breeding on his dam's side.

Vyjack=mediocre IMO and miler bred on both sides.

Normandy Invasion-I think he has the right running style and rallied into a slow pace in the Wood.I don't know if he will be a flatten out candidate because he is another miler bred on both sides.Or keep on running into an advantageous pace.I'm betting on the latter but not to win.He'll be a big player in my exotics.

Orb-I just hope he's 4-1 on derby day because I like everything about him.he wasn't put on tilt to win the Florida Derby.He was already in the KY Derby gate pointswise and Shug was just building a foundation in him and said about as much.It can arguably be said he ran against a slightly biased Gulfstream strip this winter(not sure about that).But he has proven he has some class.Is an opportunist,why do people think that's not a virtue?And is bred stoutly for this on both sides of his pedigree,especially his dam's.After a big effort 2 back and a softer emphasis last out I think he's primed to deliver his best next out.IMO only a bad trip compromises him.

Revolutionary-I hated him in the Louisiana Derby!But he has the right running style,the speed,and while mile bred on his sires side has big stamina on mare's side.He's going to be a win candidate.

Departing-is my wiseguy horse.He topped out before the Louisiana Derby and had some pretty sizable trip issues and might not have been at his best either.On a potential bounceback and solid distance breeding on both sides and a pressing style I think he's a major player.

Overall I like this crop and think it's one of the best we've seen in a while.

That's my two cents.

[magwell]

Cincy; I agree , You covered the situation real good, sure looks like Orb and Verranzano are the horses to beat at the distance and both look the part up close,

[Valuist]

Verrazano is an almost certain underlay. Too much history on these Pletcher runners running big at Gulfstream and not being able to run as big once heading up north. His record at Churchill the past few years (encompassing about 100 starters) is around 6%. The Wood Memorial was a perfect setup for him, yet he wasn't the most impressive runner in the race. Bet him at your own risk.

[letswastemoney]

Breeding is an overrated factor in the Kentucky Derby. It's the one race where everyone places a premium on breeding, when horses that were sired by sprinters like Elusive Quality still went on to win.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Breeding is an overrated factor in the Kentucky Derby. It's the one race where everyone places a premium on breeding, when horses that were sired by sprinters like Elusive Quality still went on to win.

They get stamina from their dam side too.It's not as 1 dimensional and meaningless as you make it out.If you want us to believe breeding is overrated,give more than half an answer,or the only thing overrated is your belief in your reply!;)

[Tread]

The best horse in the best race so far??? Why, because Beyer says so?

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Who did he beat in this field? The winner of these peers last time wasn't even in the race, and the horse he beat for second was racing on what most likely was an extremely sore knee and is now out of training.

Goldencents had the dreamiest of trips here, sitting just off the pace of a severely distance limited "route" horse and having to do nothing more than hold off an injured contender afterwards, as the track was so ridiculously speed favoring all day that closers had no chance at all no matter what the fractions were.

Go check the chart, every winner of every dirt race was in the lead at the top of the stretch. This track had a SEVERE bias and horses coming from behind were out of contention when the gates opened. The fact that Super99 held on for third tells me all I need to know, this track had a ridiculous bias to it and played into the how "impressive" the victory appeared to simpletons.

Figure makers like Jerry Brown have already been heard on this topic, unequvicoally stating he is adding to the time of the SAD due to the glib surface and reducing the time of the Wood due to it (the surface) being slow and the horses coming home into a huge headwind (which, incidentally, still didnt stop them from running the last 3F almost 2 sec faster than the SAD horses did).

And this isn't even to mention his pedigree, which is absolutely NOTHING like I'llHaveAnother's and is loaded with sprinters and milers. BRIS shows an avg winning distance of both his sire and dam's sire to be less than 7F. Pretty sure no horse ever in the history of the Derby has won with AWD so low on both sides.

If you want to bet the horse simply because O'Neil won last year, go right ahead. A lot of people bet Motion's horse last year for the exact same reason, not looking deeper into the details, and that didn't work out very well for them.

[Tread]

They get stamina from their dam side too.It's not as 1 dimensional and meaningless as you make it out.If you want us to believe breeding is overrated,give more than half an answer,or the only thing overrated is your belief in your reply!;)


Exactly this. Smarty's Dam sire was Smile, who had an AWD for dam sire offspring of 8.5F PRIOR to Smarty's Derby win. Breeding is not overrated, dam sire stamina influences are certain underrated and unnoticed by many though, I'll tell you that much.

[Valuist]

The best horse in the best race so far??? Why, because Beyer says so?

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Who did he beat in this field? The winner of these peers last time wasn't even in the race, and the horse he beat for second was racing on what most likely was an extremely sore knee and is now out of training.

Goldencents had the dreamiest of trips here, sitting just off the pace of a severely distance limited "route" horse and having to do nothing more than hold off an injured contender afterwards, as the track was so ridiculously speed favoring all day that closers had no chance at all no matter what the fractions were.

Go check the chart, every winner of every dirt race was in the lead at the top of the stretch. This track had a SEVERE bias and horses coming from behind were out of contention when the gates opened. The fact that Super99 held on for third tells me all I need to know, this track had a ridiculous bias to it and played into the how "impressive" the victory appeared to simpletons.

Figure makers like Jerry Brown have already been heard on this topic, unequvicoally stating he is adding to the time of the SAD due to the glib surface and reducing the time of the Wood due to it (the surface) being slow and the horses coming home into a huge headwind (which, incidentally, still didnt stop them from running the last 3F almost 2 sec faster than the SAD horses did).

And this isn't even to mention his pedigree, which is absolutely NOTHING like I'llHaveAnother's and is loaded with sprinters and milers. BRIS shows an avg winning distance of both his sire and dam's sire to be less than 7F. Pretty sure no horse ever in the history of the Derby has won with AWD so low on both sides.

If you want to bet the horse simply because O'Neil won last year, go right ahead. A lot of people bet Motion's horse last year for the exact same reason, not looking deeper into the details, and that didn't work out very well for them.

One factor I mention was O'Neill won the race last year and now, its the only reason I want to bet the horse? I certainly didn't bet on Motion last year. Reading is a skill; apparently one you are lacking. Results always trump bloodlines. Funny Cide was supposed to not be able to route. Same with Smarty Jones. How did that work out for those that doubted their ability to stay? How did the BRIS avg winning distance for Goldencents work out in the SA Derby? Dream trip? Chasing/pressing a solid pace two wide. Rough trip? No. Dream trip? I would say Verrazano had a dream trip in the Wood. I would say Orb had a dream trip in the Fountain of Youth. We saw that Goldencents doesn't have to be on the lead every step.

The best indication of how a 3 YO will perfom at 1 1/4 miles is how it perfoms at 1 1/8 miles.

So quick to judge, why don't you impart your great "wisdom" and tell us who is the horse to beat?

[Tread]

One factor I mention was O'Neill won the race last year and now, its the only reason I want to bet the horse? I certainly didn't bet on Motion last year. Reading is a skill; apparently one you are lacking. Results always trump bloodlines. Funny Cide was supposed to not be able to route. Same with Smarty Jones. How did that work out for those that doubted their ability to stay? How did the BRIS avg winning distance for Goldencents work out in the SA Derby? Dream trip? Chasing/pressing a solid pace two wide. Rough trip? No. Dream trip? I would say Verrazano had a dream trip in the Wood. I would say Orb had a dream trip in the Fountain of Youth. We saw that Goldencents doesn't have to be on the lead every step.

The best indication of how a 3 YO will perfom at 1 1/4 miles is how it perfoms at 1 1/8 miles.

So quick to judge, why don't you impart your great "wisdom" and tell us who is the horse to beat?

Funny Cide and Smarty weren't supposed to be able to route? Are you just going to blatantly make stuff up for this discussion?

Funny Cide had a DI of 1.53 and a CD of 0.46. His dam sire AWD was 8.5F. There is absolutely nothing in that pedigree that suggests he would have any trouble at a route. Unless you take a complete simpleton view of saying "oh he's by Distorted Humor and he produces a bunch of sprint winners".

I just addressed Smarty's pedigree in the post above, and you are using it as a negative, and I have a reading comprehension problem? A dam sire AWD of 8.5F is higher than ANY of the Derby contenders you will see this year, and Elusive Quality's 7.6F is nearly a full furlong better than both sides of Goldencent's pedigree.

And yes, when you sit just behind the pace of a horse who is 1/5 to stop badly in the stretch of a 9F race over a ridiculously speed favoring strip and nothing else within 6 lengths of you other than a horse with an injured knee, trips do not get any more dreamier than that.

[Striker]

Breeding is an overrated factor in the Kentucky Derby. It's the one race where everyone places a premium on breeding, when horses that were sired by sprinters like Elusive Quality still went on to win.
Gone West, EQ's sire, had sired some pretty good horses and ones that had no problem in the classic distances, so that factors into Smarty's breeding. When you go a little farther into his female line the stamina influences are found, which is why his dosage was 3.4, which is below that 4.00 guideline used by most.

[Valuist]

Funny Cide and Smarty weren't supposed to be able to route? Are you just going to blatantly make stuff up for this discussion?

Funny Cide had a DI of 1.53 and a CD of 0.46. His dam sire AWD was 8.5F. There is absolutely nothing in that pedigree that suggests he would have any trouble at a route. Unless you take a complete simpleton view of saying "oh he's by Distorted Humor and he produces a bunch of sprint winners".

I just addressed Smarty's pedigree in the post above, and you are using it as a negative, and I have a reading comprehension problem? A dam sire AWD of 8.5F is higher than ANY of the Derby contenders you will see this year, and Elusive Quality's 7.6F is nearly a full furlong better than both sides of Goldencent's pedigree.

And yes, when you sit just behind the pace of a horse who is 1/5 to stop badly in the stretch of a 9F race over a ridiculously speed favoring strip and nothing else within 6 lengths of you other than a horse with an injured knee, trips do not get any more dreamier than that.

If we have a field of contenders challenged by their breeding to get 10 furlongs, it only strengthens the case of those who can handle 9f like Goldencents and Normandy Invasion.

[Tread]

Goldencents can "handle" 9F only if the surface is extremely glib and does not contain any other (fully healthy) GSWs, but you only need to go one race back to see a case where he cannot even handle 8.5F under more normal conditions with a fairer track.

At Churchill, where the surface will much more resemble something like AQU than it will SA, at 10F, in a race full of other GSWs and other speed horses capable of actually carrying their speed past 7.5F, he does not stand a chance. Horses can outrun pedigrees with as many factors as Goldencents had in his favor last Saturday, but not in a fair fight against so many other good horses.

[cj]

Goldencents can "handle" 9F only if the surface is extremely glib and does not contain any other (fully healthy) GSWs, but you only need to go one race back to see a case where he cannot even handle 8.5F under more normal conditions with a fairer track.

At Churchill, where the surface will much more resemble something like AQU than it will SA, at 10F, in a race full of other GSWs and other speed horses capable of actually carrying their speed past 7.5F, he does not stand a chance. Horses can outrun pedigrees with as many factors as Goldencents had in his favor last Saturday, but not in a fair fight against so many other good horses.

It isn't like California horses have performed poorly at Churchill over the years.

[Valuist]

Goldencents can "handle" 9F only if the surface is extremely glib and does not contain any other (fully healthy) GSWs, but you only need to go one race back to see a case where he cannot even handle 8.5F under more normal conditions with a fairer track.

At Churchill, where the surface will much more resemble something like AQU than it will SA, at 10F, in a race full of other GSWs and other speed horses capable of actually carrying their speed past 7.5F, he does not stand a chance. Horses can outrun pedigrees with as many factors as Goldencents had in his favor last Saturday, but not in a fair fight against so many other good horses.

I reviewed the charts from last Saturday at SA. Was speed good? Sure, but the results were extremely formful. Here's the dirt races from last Saturday:

race 2: speed runs 1-2 around track but those also were the two top betting choices
race 3: the 2-5 megachalk pressed pace, then took over to win easily
race 5: Beholder wins wire to wire, but she was 3-10 to win.
race 7: Jimmy Creed, at 6-5, sits 2nd off Comma to the Top (2-1). Comma to the Top tires to finish 4th.
race 9: Goldencents presses Super 99 and goes on to win.
race 10: The favorite had a clear lead but got passed late by the 2nd choice.

Speed certainly wasn't bad but considering how formful the results were, I'd be hesitant to conclude that it was an overpowering speed bias that carried Goldencents to a win. If there was a rail bias, he didn't benefit from it was he was chasing two wide.

[Tread]

It isn't like California horses have performed poorly at Churchill over the years.

This argument makes as much sense as and uses the same logic as, O'Neil won last year so he's a good bet this year.

[Valuist]

This argument makes as much sense as and uses the same logic as, O'Neil won last year so he's a good bet this year.

The point I was making about O'Neill was not so much simply that he won last year, but he knows how to prepare a Derby winner. The race was dominated for years by Lukas, Baffert and Zito. O'Neill had the horse last year, and he didn't mess it up.

[cj]

This argument makes as much sense as and uses the same logic as, O'Neil won last year so he's a good bet this year.

The California tracks are always fast, and many horses have come out of the Santa Anita Derby to at Churchill. I'm not talking about late runners either. What part doesn't makes sense to you?

If you don't like the horse, that is fine, but it won't be because of where he prepped. That is what makes no sense to me.

[Tread]

The California tracks are always fast, and many horses have come out of the Santa Anita Derby to at Churchill. I'm not talking about late runners either. What part doesn't makes sense to you?

If you don't like the horse, that is fine, but it won't be because of where he prepped. That is what makes no sense to me.

I'm not saying I don't like him because of where he prepped. I'm saying the public perception of the effort is over-inflated due to the speed bias of the track and the company of the race was extremely poor when factoring in Flashback's injury. Santa Anita is not always a drag strip like that, and in fact was not the prior time this group of horses raced.

That said, I just went backwards 8 years, and outside of last year I'm not finding a whole lot of California-based horses in the Derby results. Nothing very exciting happens until I hit Giacamo in 2005.

EDIT - The part that does not make sense is that prior year's results from a certain location or trainer mean nothing on the potential for this year. It's about the horses, period. When people like Chip Wooley and John Servis have winners the last decade, you can't tell me being a super-trainer is required or makes much difference.

[precocity]

The best horse in the best race so far??? Why, because Beyer says so?

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Who did he beat in this field? The winner of these peers last time wasn't even in the race, and the horse he beat for second was racing on what most likely was an extremely sore knee and is now out of training.

Goldencents had the dreamiest of trips here, sitting just off the pace of a severely distance limited "route" horse and having to do nothing more than hold off an injured contender afterwards, as the track was so ridiculously speed favoring all day that closers had no chance at all no matter what the fractions were.

Go check the chart, every winner of every dirt race was in the lead at the top of the stretch. This track had a SEVERE bias and horses coming from behind were out of contention when the gates opened. The fact that Super99 held on for third tells me all I need to know, this track had a ridiculous bias to it and played into the how "impressive" the victory appeared to simpletons.

Figure makers like Jerry Brown have already been heard on this topic, unequvicoally stating he is adding to the time of the SAD due to the glib surface and reducing the time of the Wood due to it (the surface) being slow and the horses coming home into a huge headwind (which, incidentally, still didnt stop them from running the last 3F almost 2 sec faster than the SAD horses did).

And this isn't even to mention his pedigree, which is absolutely NOTHING like I'llHaveAnother's and is loaded with sprinters and milers. BRIS shows an avg winning distance of both his sire and dam's sire to be less than 7F. Pretty sure no horse ever in the history of the Derby has won with AWD so low on both sides.

If you want to bet the horse simply because O'Neil won last year, go right ahead. A lot of people bet Motion's horse last year for the exact same reason, not looking deeper into the details, and that didn't work out very well for them.
goldencents was a 2yr old when he won that race and has won past 7f, he not my top pick but he is in my top 5. im telling you the horse has a ton of heart.

[cj]

I'm not saying I don't like him because of where he prepped. I'm saying the public perception of the effort is over-inflated due to the speed bias of the track and the company of the race was extremely poor when factoring in Flashback's injury. Santa Anita is not always a drag strip like that, and in fact was not the prior time this group of horses raced.

That said, I just went backwards 8 years, and outside of last year I'm not finding a whole lot of California-based horses in the Derby results. Nothing very exciting happens until I hit Giacamo in 2005.

EDIT - The part that does not make sense is that prior year's results from a certain location or trainer mean nothing on the potential for this year. It's about the horses, period. When people like Chip Wooley and John Servis have winners the last decade, you can't tell me being a super-trainer is required or makes much difference.

Well, SoCal was synthetic for a large part of that, so wasn't really thinking about those years. Isn't Churchill almost always really fast on Derby day, barring bad weather? It is usually a lot closer to SA than it is to Aqu speed wise.

[Tread]

Difficult call because there has been so much rain there the past decade. On a normal, dry day, I believe the CD surface is sandier, looser, and deeper compared to SA. but being sandy, when it gets water in it it can tighten up in a hurry.

[Valuist]

I'm not saying I don't like him because of where he prepped. I'm saying the public perception of the effort is over-inflated due to the speed bias of the track and the company of the race was extremely poor when factoring in Flashback's injury. Santa Anita is not always a drag strip like that, and in fact was not the prior time this group of horses raced.

That said, I just went backwards 8 years, and outside of last year I'm not finding a whole lot of California-based horses in the Derby results. Nothing very exciting happens until I hit Giacamo in 2005.

EDIT - The part that does not make sense is that prior year's results from a certain location or trainer mean nothing on the potential for this year. It's about the horses, period. When people like Chip Wooley and John Servis have winners the last decade, you can't tell me being a super-trainer is required or makes much difference.

You are making the assumption that Flashback was injured for the entire race. We don't know definitively when it happened, and its likely it wasn't until very late in the race. If he got up to win, IMO, there's no doubt Flashback would've been favored at CD, especially when one takes into account the uninspiring efforts in the eastern portion of the country.

Not saying this is true, but I always wonder when I see a hyped horse come down with an injury. Maybe its real. Maybe he didn't live up to the hype and they don't want to risk further disappointments. It wouldn't be the first time we've seen a 3 YO rushed off the track.

[cj]

Difficult call because there has been so much rain there the past decade. On a normal, dry day, I believe the CD surface is sandier, looser, and deeper compared to SA. but being sandy, when it gets water in it it can tighten up in a hurry.

Then they must water it, because it is usually very fast.

[Tread]

Im not saying that at all, it would only need to have occurred in the stretch where he was really called upon for his best run to have an impact on his performance.

Conspiracy theory? Comon, you cant be serious about that.

[Valuist]

Im not saying that at all, it would only need to have occurred in the stretch where he was really called upon for his best run to have an impact on his performance.

Conspiracy theory? Comon, you cant be serious about that.

Probably isn't. But would you be shocked? Baffert has been pumping this horse so much. I haven't heard him hype a horse like that in a few years.

[Robert Fischer]

Goldencents may have moved forward in the SA Derby.

I haven't gone through over the race since that day, but that was my impression. I thought he may have indicated that he could carry his speed a distance on his day.

[Sunday Silence]

Goldencents - I love this horse. O'Neill has been pimping him for 6 months. Taught him to rate a bit and the SA effort was a standout. Matter of fact, it would have been SA 1-2 just like last year if Flashback was still in. Every east coast 2 turn effort has been slow. If Krigger is patient this horse makes the same move turning for home and is gone. When horses relax and finish at 1 1/8 miles I like their chances at the classic distance. Krigger keeps the price up. I'm unloading with both fists

[precocity]

Goldencents - I love this horse. O'Neill has been pimping him for 6 months. Taught him to rate a bit and the SA effort was a standout. Matter of fact, it would have been SA 1-2 just like last year if Flashback was still in. Every east coast 2 turn effort has been slow. If Krigger is patient this horse makes the same move turning for home and is gone. When horses relax and finish at 1 1/8 miles I like their chances at the classic distance. Krigger keeps the price up. I'm unloading with both fists


good post and after the race when he jogged out and they were Interviewing the jockey goldencents act like he was never even in a race, just as calm as could be. He is maturing.

[precocity]

Then they must water it, because it is usually very fast.
:D would love to see goldencents tactical speed on a sloppy track!

[Producer]

What is interesting to me with this horse, as well as with IHA before last years derby is the way O'neill has trained his top derby prospects leading up to the preps and the derby itself. Very rarely do trainers work their horses fast AND long on a regular basis as he has. 6f in 1:10 and change is the normal workout for this horse. Seems if a horse can handle being trained in this manner, they have a fitness edge over the other horses. Last year before the derby, it reminded me a bit of Afleet Alex, who wasnt trained in this same manner but in a similarily unorthodox way.

[classhandicapper]

I reviewed the charts from last Saturday at SA. Was speed good? Sure, but the results were extremely formful. Here's the dirt races from last Saturday:

race 2: speed runs 1-2 around track but those also were the two top betting choices
race 3: the 2-5 megachalk pressed pace, then took over to win easily
race 5: Beholder wins wire to wire, but she was 3-10 to win.
race 7: Jimmy Creed, at 6-5, sits 2nd off Comma to the Top (2-1). Comma to the Top tires to finish 4th.
race 9: Goldencents presses Super 99 and goes on to win.
race 10: The favorite had a clear lead but got passed late by the 2nd choice.

Speed certainly wasn't bad but considering how formful the results were, I'd be hesitant to conclude that it was an overpowering speed bias that carried Goldencents to a win. If there was a rail bias, he didn't benefit from it was he was chasing two wide.

That's my feeling too.

I'm on the fence, but I'd feel better about calling it a bias if Comma to the Top had run better. One the flip side, speed certainly wasn't a disadvantage. ;)

[Valuist]

That's my feeling too.

I'm on the fence, but I'd feel better about calling it a bias if Comma to the Top had run better. One the flip side, speed certainly wasn't a disadvantage. ;)

That's pretty much the way I viewed it. Speed certainly didn't hurt, but to think that an strong speed bias single handedly carried Goldencents to a win would be a hasty overreaction to pure charts, without reading between the lines.

Its funny when I hear commentators on TVG, and probably HRTV too. They're quick to label a track as speed favoring, but when Poly is punishing speed and everything is closing down the middle of the track, they call that a "fair" racetrack.

(Real) dirt racing, especially at a track like SA, is normally going to favor those near the lead.

[RXB]

Goldencents ran a good race but he was also helped by the track. All six dirt winners at SA were within one length at 2f. Five of those six, including Goldencents, won while pressing the pace outside of their early rival. (Beholder won the SA Oaks while being unpressured the whole way.) So I think it's safe to say that he had a favourable trip.

[Tom]

I'm impressed, now, with Goldencents, and I want nothing to do with Veranzano after the Wood.

[Valuist]

Goldencents ran a good race but he was also helped by the track. All six dirt winners at SA were within one length at 2f. Five of those six, including Goldencents, won while pressing the pace outside of their early rival. (Beholder won the SA Oaks while being unpressured the whole way.) So I think it's safe to say that he had a favourable trip.

And of the 6 dirt races, 4 were won by favorites (one at 3-10 and another at 2-5), another by the second betting choice, and the "longshot" of the group in Goldencents. The results were very predictable. It would've been a shocker if Beholder didn't go wire to wire.

[RXB]

And of the 6 dirt races, 4 were won by favorites (one at 3-10 and another at 2-5), another by the second betting choice, and the "longshot" of the group in Goldencents. The results were very predictable. It would've been a shocker if Beholder didn't go wire to wire.

There was a very clear style of trip for winners that day-- pressing/dueling outside the rival-- and there was also not a single horse in any of the exactors that was worse than 4th at the 2f mark. Outside pressers won, chasers were the most prevalent place horses with defeated inside speed filling a couple of place positions, too.

Even if they had all been favourites, what are the chances of them all winning with almost exactly the same trip? Let's say that six horses sweep the dirt races with essentially the same trip on a given day and they are all 1/1 favourites. Does that mean there was no bias? The chances of six 1/1 horses winning in a row, based on an average win probability of about 40% for 1/1 horses, is 1-in-250. So why did that group get so lucky? How about if they were all 3/5? Those horses win at about a 50% clip; the probability of six-in-a-row is still only 1-in-64.

[Robert Fischer]

I reviewed the charts from last Saturday at SA. Was speed good? Sure, but the results were extremely formful. Here's the dirt races from last Saturday:

race 2: speed runs 1-2 around track but those also were the two top betting choices
race 3: the 2-5 megachalk pressed pace, then took over to win easily
race 5: Beholder wins wire to wire, but she was 3-10 to win.
race 7: Jimmy Creed, at 6-5, sits 2nd off Comma to the Top (2-1). Comma to the Top tires to finish 4th.
race 9: Goldencents presses Super 99 and goes on to win.
race 10: The favorite had a clear lead but got passed late by the 2nd choice.

Speed certainly wasn't bad but considering how formful the results were, I'd be hesitant to conclude that it was an overpowering speed bias that carried Goldencents to a win. If there was a rail bias, he didn't benefit from it was he was chasing two wide.



This is a really good post. Without getting into specifics, the idea of checking form, before declaring a bias, is something that has to be done.

[Tom]

What percent of dirt races at SA do you suppose have winners farther back than 2 lengths at the second call overall?

Maybe 4 out of 6 is below average?

I will check it out, but is seems to be normal, not a bias, just the way it is.
My rule for a bias is unless there is overwhelming evidence that there is a bias, there is not one. I always assume a fair track with a 0 variant until the evidence proves me wrong.

[RXB]

What percent of dirt races at SA do you suppose have winners farther back than 2 lengths at the second call overall?

Maybe 4 out of 6 is below average?

I will check it out, but is seems to be normal, not a bias, just the way it is.
My rule for a bias is unless there is overwhelming evidence that there is a bias, there is not one. I always assume a fair track with a 0 variant until the evidence proves me wrong.

Within one length after just 2f is quite different than within two lengths at the second call. And with backrunners not even getting up for a single second-place finish, I think it's highly likely that the front was getting a boost, even more than what we can typically expect on dirt.

[classhandicapper]

There was a very clear style of trip for winners that day-- pressing/dueling outside the rival-- and there was also not a single horse in any of the exactors that was worse than 4th at the 2f mark. Outside pressers won, chasers were the most prevalent place horses with defeated inside speed filling a couple of place positions, too.

Even if they had all been favourites, what are the chances of them all winning with almost exactly the same trip? Let's say that six horses sweep the dirt races with essentially the same trip on a given day and they are all 1/1 favourites. Does that mean there was no bias? The chances of six 1/1 horses winning in a row, based on an average win probability of about 40% for 1/1 horses, is 1-in-250. So why did that group get so lucky? How about if they were all 3/5? Those horses win at about a 50% clip; the probability of six-in-a-row is still only 1-in-64.

You are making a good point (one that I also have made to folks that argued that all the horses "figured" on other days). The problem is you can't have a high degree of confidence in either direction unless there are at least some inexplicably good or bad performances mixed in among the non winners.

On that day, there were a couple of mortal locks to win and no real shockers for 2nd or 3rd either.

The closest thing to a surprise for me was Comma to the Top not hanging around tougher after shaking loose in a moderate pace. If that was a biased track, you'd expect him to at least hang around better. He's fairly consistent. Based on him it looks like a fairly honest track because if it was biased, he ran poorly. But I don't think we'll know until horses start coming back.

Until I have more evidence, I'm going to treat it as a non biased track except maybe in a tie breaker decision.