Keeneland

[Valuist]

They may have some of the best racing around, but their low level claiming races are awful. Case in point: today's 9th race. An unrestricted $10k claimer for older males. Southern Joy, fresh from off the board finishes against 5000 NW3 and 7500 NW3 over Turfway's Poly, has no trouble making the large class jump to 10,000. So the payoff bonanza for those willing to back a horse coming off 4th and 6th place finishes not for only a lower tag, but NW3? A mere $9.40.

I realize there wasn't a lot of speed in the race, and Rosario took the mount for Maker, but damn, this game isn't easy when those types don't even pay $10.

[Tread]

So do you always only look at the last race when handicapping?

This horse won a 20k claiming race, same distance, at Keeneland last fall, and raced for 15k as recently as this Jan. Maker obviously not cranking his horses for the Turfway meet and having them ready to go for Keeneland, and had 2 really nice workouts since the last race.

Lower-level claiming races are certainly not consistent horses, I'll give you that, but there were plenty of clues here, not to mention Maker's name along and how hot he is, to draw anyone even half-observant to this horse.

[Robert Fischer]

They may have some of the best racing around, but their low level claiming races are awful. Case in point: today's 9th race. An unrestricted $10k claimer for older males. Southern Joy, fresh from off the board finishes against 5000 NW3 and 7500 NW3 over Turfway's Poly, has no trouble making the large class jump to 10,000. So the payoff bonanza for those willing to back a horse coming off 4th and 6th place finishes not for only a lower tag, but NW3? A mere $9.40.

I realize there wasn't a lot of speed in the race, and Rosario took the mount for Maker, but damn, this game isn't easy when those types don't even pay $10.

The two drills were nice, and that last 5000 was more in line with a 7500 in terms of quality, but I looked at that horse and didn't have a play. I couldn't bet that race.

The tactics helped a great deal as he was allowed to go 1:13.70 on a 2 length lead.
3 speeds ran around together for a pretty big trifecta.


Christmas Punch ran a decent 4th.



not surprisingly, there were no claims.

[chadk66]

I believe 10K is the bottom at Keeneland. At least it was when I trained there. That being said, generally the bottom is the bottom wherever. What I'm getting at is that 10k claiming at Keeneland is somewhat inflated. A bottom claimer at another track, say 5K can compete for 10k at keeneland

[FiveWide]

I believe 10K is the bottom at Keeneland. At least it was when I trained there. That being said, generally the bottom is the bottom wherever. What I'm getting at is that 10k claiming at Keeneland is somewhat inflated. A bottom claimer at another track, say 5K can compete for 10k at keeneland


Great point Chad!


-Five

[cj]

Great point Chad!


-Five

It would be, except I don't think 10k is the bottom at Kee, unless that is new this year. It has been 5k for a long time.

[Some_One]

They may have some of the best racing around, but their low level claiming races are awful. Case in point: today's 9th race. An unrestricted $10k claimer for older males. Southern Joy, fresh from off the board finishes against 5000 NW3 and 7500 NW3 over Turfway's Poly, has no trouble making the large class jump to 10,000. So the payoff bonanza for those willing to back a horse coming off 4th and 6th place finishes not for only a lower tag, but NW3? A mere $9.40.

I realize there wasn't a lot of speed in the race, and Rosario took the mount for Maker, but damn, this game isn't easy when those types don't even pay $10.

I highlighted why the horse payed less than 10 bucks.

[chadk66]

It would be, except I don't think 10k is the bottom at Kee, unless that is new this year. It has been 5k for a long time.I'm not sure what it is now. But in the 80's when I was there 10K was the bottom. Also at keeneland you don't get alot of claimers wanting to run there so it's kind of a crap shoot I think. At least it used to be. it's nothing but barn's full of allowance and stakes horses for the most part. The claimers were always shippers from the farms, turfway, and CD.

[cj]

I'm not sure what it is now. But in the 80's when I was there 10K was the bottom. Also at keeneland you don't get alot of claimers wanting to run there so it's kind of a crap shoot I think. At least it used to be. it's nothing but barn's full of allowance and stakes horses for the most part. The claimers were always shippers from the farms, turfway, and CD.

By a long time I meant around a decade. I didn't bother checking farther back. A lot of bottom levels have shrunk since the mid 80s, probably ALL of them.

[PhantomOnTour]

They ran Clm7500 last fall and Alw-s- with a 16k purse for those who have started for 5k

[Al Gobbi]

They ran Clm7500 last fall and Alw-s- with a 16k purse for those who have started for 5k

straight $5k claimers have been carded at Keeneland in the past.

[chadk66]

By a long time I meant around a decade. I didn't bother checking farther back. A lot of bottom levels have shrunk since the mid 80s, probably ALL of them.yea your probably right

[bushwick]

Last few years bottom has been 10k spring meet 7.5k for the fall meet.

[cj]

Last few years bottom has been 10k spring meet 7.5k for the fall meet.
Like I said, there have been 5k races all of those years.

[fiveouttasix]

I just checked the last 2 spring meets at KEE (nothing better to do on a light race day)
The lowest priced claiming race has been $10,000 (and these are few and far between)...so if your claiming horse is ready to run & you don't want to ship... $10,000 it is. That is why you see $5,000 Turfway horses in these races

[Valuist]

So do you always only look at the last race when handicapping?

This horse won a 20k claiming race, same distance, at Keeneland last fall, and raced for 15k as recently as this Jan. Maker obviously not cranking his horses for the Turfway meet and having them ready to go for Keeneland, and had 2 really nice workouts since the last race.

Lower-level claiming races are certainly not consistent horses, I'll give you that, but there were plenty of clues here, not to mention Maker's name along and how hot he is, to draw anyone even half-observant to this horse.

I look at all the horse's lines. What are they capable of at their best, and where are they at now. Yes, the colt had won its only Kee start.....with a whopping 54 Beyer. His best Beyer in his last 10 races was a 71, six races ago. A 71 isn't going to win many 10k open claimers. It would be lucky to be good enough for 3rd, at best, most of the time.

It was Ramsey unloading with both hands, as he is known to do. Good luck, Ken. Cutting margins awfully thin by taking a $9.40 payoff on a horse like Southern Joy.

[chadk66]

I've been perusing the board for a couple weeks now. I find it very interesting from a former trainer standpoint. When I was training I basically didn't bet because I was a horrible handicapper. Probably for numerous reasons. When reading all the different posts in this forum I have come to a definite conclusion. Handicappers simply think way different than trainers. Which explains why I was terrible at handicapping lol. My brother owns horses, actually we own a couple together now too, and he basically grew up handicapping. We think quite a bit differently. He's all caught up in speed figures and such like most of you guys on here. Back when I trained we only had the DRF track variant and speed figure so I basically put no stock in those other than what the track variant was. When my brother and I discuss PP's regarding a race he as an owner has a horse in we look at things much differently. He basically focus's in on speed ratings to indicate whether his horse fits in there. The thing I always have to point out to him is that his horses aren't machines, they don't run the exact same race after race. I try to explain to him that horses are animals much like humans. They will pretty much set the pecking order in the post parade. My wife owns three riding horses. I get such a kick out of watching them day in and out in the pasture. The one mare dictates what the other two do day after day. she steers them around the pasture and makes them do what she wants them to do. And does this in a way that unless you really understood horses you'd never realize its happening. Race horses do this too. Then add in how a horse physically feels on a given day their speed rating can vary greatly. My brother is slowly learning that just because a 5K horse runs the same beyers as a 10k horse most of the time could never compete at that level. They know the pecking order.

[cj]

I just checked the last 2 spring meets at KEE (nothing better to do on a light race day)
The lowest priced claiming race has been $10,000 (and these are few and far between)...so if your claiming horse is ready to run & you don't want to ship... $10,000 it is. That is why you see $5,000 Turfway horses in these races

This is correct. I was mistaken about 5k, those are starter races. $7,500 in the fall, 10k in the spring.

[cj]

I've been perusing the board for a couple weeks now. I find it very interesting from a former trainer standpoint. When I was training I basically didn't bet because I was a horrible handicapper. Probably for numerous reasons. When reading all the different posts in this forum I have come to a definite conclusion. Handicappers simply think way different than trainers. Which explains why I was terrible at handicapping lol. My brother owns horses, actually we own a couple together now too, and he basically grew up handicapping. We think quite a bit differently. He's all caught up in speed figures and such like most of you guys on here. Back when I trained we only had the DRF track variant and speed figure so I basically put no stock in those other than what the track variant was. When my brother and I discuss PP's regarding a race he as an owner has a horse in we look at things much differently. He basically focus's in on speed ratings to indicate whether his horse fits in there. The thing I always have to point out to him is that his horses aren't machines, they don't run the exact same race after race. I try to explain to him that horses are animals much like humans. They will pretty much set the pecking order in the post parade. My wife owns three riding horses. I get such a kick out of watching them day in and out in the pasture. The one mare dictates what the other two do day after day. she steers them around the pasture and makes them do what she wants them to do. And does this in a way that unless you really understood horses you'd never realize its happening. Race horses do this too. Then add in how a horse physically feels on a given day their speed rating can vary greatly. My brother is slowly learning that just because a 5K horse runs the same beyers as a 10k horse most of the time could never compete at that level. They know the pecking order.

What am I missing here? You basically tell us you were a horrible handicapper as a trainer (which is common), but then tell us why handicappers don't know what they are doing.

[lamboguy]

good handicappers and good trainers go hand in hand. i always have done better sending horses to trainers that are not afraid to lay there money down than the guys that frown on betting.

Keeneland races range from super great to ultra weak. there is a MSW race in the book on April 21 going long for 4yo and up filly's. that has to be the weakest race ever for that type of purse, $58,000. i am looking forward to the race because i have a filly that just got beat at the Mountain that i think has a giant shot in that race. its the Kentucky Derby for her.

[Valuist]

As for Kee's bottom, I know they ran a $7500 (unrestricted) claimer last fall. I'm looking at the pps of the race I referenced earlier in the thread; the 12 horse, Murphy's Covert, won a $7500 claimer at Kee back on October 26th of last year.

[chadk66]

What am I missing here? You basically tell us you were a horrible handicapper as a trainer (which is common), but then tell us why handicappers don't know what they are doing.not at all. I was simply pointing out why speed figures are inconsistent. just another one of the tools in the arsenal of handicapping. not the end all be all that some believe they should be.

[chadk66]

good handicappers and good trainers go hand in hand. i always have done better sending horses to trainers that are not afraid to lay there money down than the guys that frown on betting.

Keeneland races range from super great to ultra weak. there is a MSW race in the book on April 21 going long for 4yo and up filly's. that has to be the weakest race ever for that type of purse, $58,000. i am looking forward to the race because i have a filly that just got beat at the Mountain that i think has a giant shot in that race. its the Kentucky Derby for her.not necessarily true. I bet heavy on my horses that I felt would win guaranteed. The reason I was a horrible handicapper on other horses was because I didn't have the time to analyze the races to the point of doing well on them. so maybe "handicapping" was a rather loose term for what I did/didn't do. It was more like glance at the forum and bet who you think was the best horse lol

[cj]

not at all. I was simply pointing out why speed figures are inconsistent. just another one of the tools in the arsenal of handicapping. not the end all be all that some believe they should be.

That is a common misconception. I don't know anyone that actually thinks like that, at least that posts here.

[Leparoux]

As far as I know Valuist, you handicap the horse against the other horses in the race right? The 9th was a bad race and in that field, that horse was very logical.

[Leparoux]

I find it funny/depressing that for ALL of the great things Keeneland has going for it, this is what people want to discuss.

[cj]

I find it funny/depressing that for ALL of the great things Keeneland has going for it, this is what people want to discuss.

Yes, you've said that twice already. You want to start a thread about the good things at Keeneland, have at it.

[Leparoux]

Yes, you've said that twice already. You want to start a thread about the good things at Keeneland, have at it.
Oh, I thought that it didn't go through for some reason. The topic is "Keeneland" I figured it was ok to discuss all things Keeneland here?

[5k-claim]

good handicappers and good trainers go hand in hand. i always have done better sending horses to trainers that are not afraid to lay there money down than the guys that frown on betting. Really?

I obviously get the concept of wanting your trainer to be able to read a Racing Form, but you have actually experienced a positive correlation between training ability and "not afraid to lay there money down"?

That is interesting. Does your experience extend to others with similar responsibilities toward your horse like vets, blacksmiths, exercise riders and grooms... or just the trainers?

.

[Leparoux]

good handicappers and good trainers go hand in hand.
Have not heard this before, very interesting.

[cj]

Oh, I thought that it didn't go through for some reason. The topic is "Keeneland" I figured it was ok to discuss all things Keeneland here?

You can, but the intent of the thread is generally in the first post. You aren't actually discussing anything. You are basically giving the thread starter crap for starting a thread about the low level claiming races. He acknowledged they have great racing otherwise. If you truly find it depressing, start another thread rather than reading and responding in this one.

[Leparoux]

^Gotcha my b

[Valuist]

As far as I know Valuist, you handicap the horse against the other horses in the race right? The 9th was a bad race and in that field, that horse was very logical.

Very logical? At 7-2? Are you on crack? I can make a case for using this horse at 8-1 or so, and can even understand someone using the horse in their P3s or P4s, thinking they are taking a shot at a price. But underlays sometimes win, and this was a case where an underlay won.

[Leparoux]

Very logical? At 7-2? Are you on crack? I can make a case for using this horse at 8-1 or so, and can even understand someone using the horse in their P3s or P4s, thinking they are taking a shot at a price. But underlays sometimes win, and this was a case where an underlay won.
Outside of the 10, who was a complete toss for me because of the severe class drop, most of the other horses in the races were coming out of all 5000/7500 claiming races. The 8 had some back class (at least relative to the rest in the field) a win over the track and then the obvious connections. There really was just not much else to pick from that field.

[Striker]

It was Ramsey unloading with both hands, as he is known to do. Good luck, Ken. Cutting margins awfully thin by taking a $9.40 payoff on a horse like Southern Joy.
He got some nice prices in the 7th and 8th races though. Maybe he played the late pk3 big, he swept it with his horses that paid $632 for $2, or he might have played the Daily Double in the 7th-8th that hit for $125.

[Valuist]

There wasn't a ton of speed in the race, and the 5, who showed speed in a sprint, was tentatively ridden from the gate and they allowed Rosario to get clear.

I'd downgrade everything out of this extremely weak 10k field.

[Stillriledup]

keeneland has a big Pentafecta carryover, does anyone know if this is a jackpot deal or its a regular carryover?

Thanks.

[lamboguy]

i am pretty sure its a regular carryover. i hit one in Churchill about 5 years ago, and it got split to about 500 winners.

[Stillriledup]

i am pretty sure its a regular carryover. i hit one in Churchill about 5 years ago, and it got split to about 500 winners.

Thanks. I was thinking it might be, but you can't be too sure these days.

[PhantomOnTour]

keeneland has a big Pentafecta carryover, does anyone know if this is a jackpot deal or its a regular carryover?

Thanks.
Pentafectas are small time man, bush league...holla' when someone rolls out a dodecafecta
:)

[Stillriledup]

Pentafectas are small time man, bush league...holla' when someone rolls out a dodecafecta
:)

:D

No doubt! Only 95,000 possible outcomes in the final race at Keeneland, that's for small timers!

[horses4courses]

until Spring meet :jump:

Glad they weren't racing today

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Beg2odyCEAEWrxe.jpg