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View Full Version : Mr. Trifecta's Balmoral Park Picks 4/7/13


precisionk
04-07-2013, 04:19 PM
Here we go!

R1: #6-Band Dee Dee-5/2 TML......Going with the price here. Didn't show much in her young career when she tried as a 2 yr old. Gets her first start a 3 yr and qualifier was a great closer. De Long aboard. Mr. Trifecta's Longshot of the Night!

Contenders:

#8-Gerris Glide-5/2 TML
#2-Northern Cindy-5/2 TML

R2: #4-Together Again N-7/5 TML......Consistently 2nd at this level. Draws against the easiest this mare has seen in the last three races. Should be stalking just off the lead.

Contenders:

#2-Fox Valley Matinee-3/1 TML
#3-Tamarac Sassy-4/1 TML

R3: #3-Park Lane Scooter-2/1 TML......Won at this level last time out. Goes against similar company. Roberts stays aboard. Should be on the lead and the one to catch.

Contenders:

#6-BS Emily's Sailor-7/1 TML
#8-Two Part Harmony-3/1 TML

R4: #5-Mighty Rpmzzz-2/1 TML......Came up just short last time out. Gets much needed post position relief. Been nipped at the wire twice now and looks to right that wrong. Roberts aboard.

Contenders:

#6-Anniversary Party-5/2 TML
#3-Dontbeachatme-5/2 TML

R5: #1/1a-Katie Ryan/Perfect Hope-5/2 TML......Like the 1 here better on the coupled entry. Draws the same post whre she won back at this level and drops back into the level she won in. Leonard comes back aboard for the drive and looks to repeat. Mr. Trifecta's Pick of the Night!

Contenders:

#4-Creditcard Express-3/1 TML
#7-The Padre-3/1 TML

R6: #3-Onlytheyankeeknows-8/5 TML......Won last time at this level. Draws a better post here and could opt to stalk this time out instead of closing late. Either option should be viable.

Contenders:

#5-Nashville Kitty-7/2 TML
#7-Pacing Penny Two-4/1 TML

R7: #1/1a-Shax/Nash Gram-7/5 TML......A great coupled entry here. Shax with the rail draw along with Nash Gram's speed to the outside should see both upfront. Pick-4: 1,5,6,7 w 10 W 2,5,7 w 1,4,5,8

Contenders:

#6-Zall Good-5/2 TML
#5-Majestic Royale-7/2 TML

R8: #10-Duneside Brat-2/1 TML......Draws into the second tier here. Cashed last three, having won three back. A good early could do wonders here against this weak field.

Contenders:

#9-Msrichstyle-7/2 TML
#8-Days Gone By-6/1 TML

R9: #7-Lovers Holiday-3/1 TML......Driver change to Sutton is big here. Did win at this level at this post two back. Faces similar company. Look for Sutton to get out to the early lead here. Should get a bit of a price.

Contenders:

#5-Western Willow-2/1 TML
#2-Gabrielle Nicole-7/2 TML

R10: #1-Cabana Jack-5/2 TML......Draws the rail against a weak claiming field. Hasn't show much, but does have some nice late kick that could come in handy down the stretch. Dave Magee aboard to ride this one home.

Contenders:

#4-Ive Got The Key-5/1 TML
#8-Ez Moving-7/1 TML

traynor
04-07-2013, 07:52 PM
Race 2:
Interesting race. #2 FoxValleyMatinee and #4 TogetherAgainN are the obvious primaries, with #2 FoxValleyMatinee slightly on top.
#3 TamaracSassy and #5 WeekendUpdate are "spoilers," meaning they may exert more influence on the outcome of the race(s) than would normally be considered given their past performance records.

Race 3:
#8 TwoPartHarmony, spoiler.

Race 5:
#5 ThePadre, primary.

Race 7:
#6 ZallGood, spoiler.

Race 9:
#6 SandTaryn, spoiler.

Race 10:
#4 IveGotTheKey, primary.

precisionk
04-07-2013, 07:57 PM
Race 2:
Interesting race. #2 FoxValleyMatinee and #4 TogetherAgainN are the obvious primaries, with #2 FoxValleyMatinee slightly on top.
#3 TamaracSassy and #5 WeekendUpdate are "spoilers," meaning they may exert more influence on the outcome of the race(s) than would normally be considered given their past performance records.

Race 3:
#8 TwoPartHarmony, spoiler.

Race 5:
#5 ThePadre, primary.

Race 7:
#6 ZallGood, spoiler.

Race 9:
#6 SandTaryn, spoiler.

Race 10:
#4 IveGotTheKey, primary.

Good information. I could see all but the R9 winner taking it. Keep it coming!

traynor
04-07-2013, 08:51 PM
Good information. I could see all but the R9 winner taking it. Keep it coming!

Interesting race. #2 FoxValleyMatinee and #4 TogetherAgainN are the obvious primaries, with #2 FoxValleyMatinee slightly on top.
#3 TamaracSassy and #5 WeekendUpdate are "spoilers."

And that pretty much explains the term "spoiler." Specifically, a spoiler may not win, but they tend to upset the normal (expected) race outcome. Not always, but enough to be well worth watching and understanding.

precisionk
04-07-2013, 08:58 PM
Interesting race. #2 FoxValleyMatinee and #4 TogetherAgainN are the obvious primaries, with #2 FoxValleyMatinee slightly on top.
#3 TamaracSassy and #5 WeekendUpdate are "spoilers."

And that pretty much explains the term "spoiler." Specifically, a spoiler may not win, but they tend to upset the normal (expected) race outcome. Not always, but enough to be well worth watching and understanding.

Definitely. Was a bit more game then the 4 there.

traynor
04-07-2013, 10:17 PM
Race 5:
#5 ThePadre, primary.

traynor
04-07-2013, 10:23 PM
Race 7:
#6 ZallGood, spoiler.

precisionk
04-07-2013, 10:39 PM
Race 7:
#6 ZallGood, spoiler.

Crazy price on this one. My 2nd choice, $9.60 for the win is really good on this one.

precisionk
04-08-2013, 12:20 AM
Results:

R1: 5,1,6 Show $3.60 Non-bet

R2: 3,4,2 Place $2.20....$2.10 $1 Exacta box 4,2,3......$8.30 No Trifecta due to field size Non-bet

R3: 5,1,3 Show $3.00

R4: 5,6,1 Win $7.00....$3.60....$3.00 $1 Exacta box 5,6,3......$11.80

R5: 7,4,1 Show $2.80

R6: 3,4,2 Win $2.40....$2.20....$2.20 Non-bet

R7: Out Non-bet

R8: 10,8,2 Win $4.00....$2.60....$2.40 $1 Exacta box 10,9,8......$9.50 Non-bet

R9: Out Non-bet

R10: Out No Trifecta due to scratch Non-bet

All races: Win Rate 30%, Board Hit 70%, Wagered $126, Returned $43, ROI -66%
Odds Line: Win Rate 33%, Board Hit 100%, Wagered $42, Returned $18.80, ROI -55%

traynor
04-08-2013, 08:11 AM
Crazy price on this one. My 2nd choice, $9.60 for the win is really good on this one.

And a small exacta, with a relatively normal trifecta, given that the favorite was out of the picture completely. There was a disproportionate relationship between the win pool and exacta pool (in that race) that indicates some healthy bets on the actual outcome (in the exacta pool) while the locals were pumping the money in with the favorite to be first or second.

That is the advantage of "spoilers." Lots of leverage. The more the crowd likes a (false) favorite, the greater the leverage of spoilers.