AQU: Gr3 Bay Shore & Gr1 Carter

[PhantomOnTour]

Two superb renewals on the Wood Mem undercard, both at 7f.

Bay Shore
which way are you going here?
wide open with many win contenders imo.
If the :9: The Truth And KG repeats his last he will win, but this former MdnClm is in deep today. If i get his 10-1 ML price i may bite, but i'm expecting lower odds and will try to beat him.
Also against :2: Maleeh, who couldn't have mapped out a better trip than he got in the Caposella. May improve again, but his 3-1 ML is way too low for me.
In short, i will settle on the two GrStks winners, :6: Honorable Dillon and the :8: Clearly Now, with preference to the latter...i'm a fan of Clearly Now.
Will use :1: Clawback underneath - i think he beats Maleeh today.
As of now it's an ex: :6: :8: w :1: :6: :8: and a win bet on :8:

[PhantomOnTour]

Carter
I'll get right to it - i like :6: Swagger Jack to outrun his 10-1 ML and hopefully crash the exacta.
Is it dirt or just SA dirt that :4: Sahara Sky loves so much?
Make no mistake, he wins this if he can repeat that Cali form at Aqu, period.
So he's a must use, as is :2: Fort Loudon, who is classed up and runs well at many tracks.
:7: Discreet Dancer has done all his work at GP and now Pletcher's gotta ship him - who knows what to expect, but i've seen enough of these GP to NY letdowns - so i'll cross my fingers and toss him from the win hole.

For me, this comes down to whether my :6: can split the :2: :4: ...tall order. Cutback has served him well before, he's earned some GrStks cred in his last two, worth a shot if he holds near his ML odds (and i expect he will...don't see him dipping below 7-1).

As of now it's an ex: :2: :4: w :6: and a win bet on :6:

[Stillriledup]

Two superb renewals on the Wood Mem undercard, both at 7f.

Bay Shore
which way are you going here?
wide open with many win contenders imo.
If the :9: The Truth And KG repeats his last he will win, but this former MdnClm is in deep today. If i get his 10-1 ML price i may bite, but i'm expecting lower odds and will try to beat him.
Also against :2: Maleeh, who couldn't have mapped out a better trip than he got in the Caposella. May improve again, but his 3-1 ML is way too low for me.
In short, i will settle on the two GrStks winners, :6: Honorable Dillon and the :8: Clearly Now, with preference to the latter...i'm a fan of Clearly Now.
Will use :1: Clawback underneath - i think he beats Maleeh today.
As of now it's an ex: :6: :8: w :1: :6: :8: and a win bet on :8:

Tough race with shippers, hard to get a handle on how good they are compared to who's already run at Aqu. I think Clawback regressed last time visually, i also think he's a tricky horse to ride and post 1 isnt going to do him any favors. Clawback had a 1 mile workout on Feb 20 (testing his triple crown stamina limitations?) and that might have taken something out of him and he really shortened stride at the wire.....he got gobbled up by Tenango who not only missed the break by 5 lengths last time, but Tenango came back the other day to run a flat 2nd to an average FG shipper, not sure how strong that race was.

This Salutos horse was super at SA on Feb 9th with a very fast turn time and crushed a Baffert horse (Zee Bros) who is pretty good and came back to win nicely. He chased that crazy Flashback pace and held ok, 5-1 ML with the great jock seems like a square price if you can get anything close to that.

The KG horse raced well, he was pressed hard into the wind and was gritty to win. Only a 4 horse field, not sure that was a great race however, not sure the 94 Beyer is representative of the strength of that field....the Basil horse he beat never came close to a 94 in his career,would you still like KG if you made that an 84 Beyer? He's value at 10-1 ML but this is a salty group.

[Stillriledup]

Carter
I'll get right to it - i like :6: Swagger Jack to outrun his 10-1 ML and hopefully crash the exacta.
Is it dirt or just SA dirt that :4: Sahara Sky loves so much?
Make no mistake, he wins this if he can repeat that Cali form at Aqu, period.
So he's a must use, as is :2: Fort Loudon, who is classed up and runs well at many tracks.
:7: Discreet Dancer has done all his work at GP and now Pletcher's gotta ship him - who knows what to expect, but i've seen enough of these GP to NY letdowns - so i'll cross my fingers and toss him from the win hole.

For me, this comes down to whether my :6: can split the :2: :4: ...tall order. Cutback has served him well before, he's earned some GrStks cred in his last two, worth a shot if he holds near his ML odds (and i expect he will...don't see him dipping below 7-1).

As of now it's an ex: :2: :4: w :6: and a win bet on :6:


With Sahara Sky, he's really good because to win from off the pace at SA is hard to do....i think that's a much more speed favoring track than this current surface (just my humble opinion). I dont know how good the 7 is, he looks sensational on paper.

The 1 and 3 are coming out of the Tom Fool and that hasnt come up that strong retrospectively, Head Hart Hoof (3rd place finisher) came back to flop vs a much weaker group than this, so i'd lean against the 2 Tom Fool horses here in the win slot.

The Saturday' Charm horse was visually impressive and even though that race isnt looking like the strongest heat, i might use SC underneath. (if i bet the race at all).

[PhantomOnTour]

This Salutos horse was super at SA on Feb 9th with a very fast turn time and crushed a Baffert horse (Zee Bros) who is pretty good and came back to win nicely. He chased that crazy Flashback pace and held ok, 5-1 ML with the great jock seems like a square price if you can get anything close to that.

Didn't quite give this horse the credit he's due.
Having another look at Salutos Amigos, but still against in the win hole.

[Some_One]

The Carter is very interesting, Discreet Dancer hasn't raced outside of Florida and Sahara Sky not outside of Southern Cal, and we've both seen favs trying either of those moves crash and burn before. Ft Loudon, with the positive jock change, is the price play for me.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Double: :3::5: (Retrieve/Brigand)

Now you know who to toss. :p

[Valuist]

I like Salutos Amigos in the Bay Shore on the turnback. Tough to split both Honorable Dillon and Clearly New. I'm not a believer in The Truth and KG. His big fig was accomplished on the lead against 3 rivals. In his last 3 races, he's faced a total of 14 horses so I'd downgrade those performances.

I don't have a strong opinion on the Carter. I'd like to bet against Discreet Dancer, who fell into a perfect trip when the mega-chalk tossed the rider last time out, but he's still the one to beat.

[Stillriledup]

Seems like the 1 path is golden today, its a factor for sure, its not all about horses there today, if you're in the 1 path, you have a shot no matter how "not good" you are on paper or video.

[Robert Fischer]

bay shore i have
clearly now as a toss from exacta

[johnhannibalsmith]

Bay Shore:

Hard to really hate anyone in this race, but from a betting standpoint, I'm most drawn to :5: Declan's Warrior. Never have been a big Zito fan, but as this one is fairly lightly raced, making just his fourth career start - it would be no surprise to me to see this one run a top with this gradual progression. Maybe it's enough, maybe it isn't - but at anything around the M/L of 12-1 and with what appears to be plenty of pace and a colt that appears to be pretty handy and versatile, a big plus for me at seven eighths - I'd take a swing banking on a peak effort at a price.

Carter:

Discreet Dancer is obviously a nice horse and may be much the best, but seven-eighths is seven-eighths, and this likely favorite is zero for zero at the unique distance.

:5: Brigand is catchy to me from connections that will invariably not be afraid to make the most of his good early speed at distance that he is pretty accomplished at. Obviously not nearly as flashy on paper as many of the others, but he is workmanlike and consistent. Since I think Baffert will almost certainly want this horse right on or setting the pace, I just think he may be a little tough to get past if most of these others are content to stalk and pounce.

:2: Fort Loudon is the other likely upsetter in my estimation - though unproved over this surface, he's established himself at the distance and has the sort of versatile style that I like going seven eighths. Obviously not at the top of his game lately, but I can dream up excuses for a few of those if necessary and convince myself that he could bounce back with something resembling his better races.

[Robert Fischer]

after seeing salutos amigos , he doesn't look good to me on the track. Not using.

:2:Maleeh got a good trip last, but he does today too.
:6: honorable dillon is back to his comfort zone - good shot to hit the board here.
:9: KG - best of rest
:1: clawback - usable under

[Tom]

John, you BASTERD! :D

Hope you had him. :ThmbUp: :5: :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

So does the Carter winner get an asterisk for winning a GR1 with no GR1 winners in it? :sleeping:

[Exotic1]

Carter
I'll get right to it - i like :6: Swagger Jack to outrun his 10-1 ML and hopefully crash the exacta.
Is it dirt or just SA dirt that :4: Sahara Sky loves so much?
Make no mistake, he wins this if he can repeat that Cali form at Aqu, period.
So he's a must use, as is :2: Fort Loudon, who is classed up and runs well at many tracks.
:7: Discreet Dancer has done all his work at GP and now Pletcher's gotta ship him - who knows what to expect, but i've seen enough of these GP to NY letdowns - so i'll cross my fingers and toss him from the win hole.

For me, this comes down to whether my :6: can split the :2: :4: ...tall order. Cutback has served him well before, he's earned some GrStks cred in his last two, worth a shot if he holds near his ML odds (and i expect he will...don't see him dipping below 7-1).

As of now it's an ex: :2: :4: w :6: and a win bet on :6:

Good Call !!!

[Tom]

Nice hit, POT.

[johnhannibalsmith]

John, you BASTERD! :D

Hope you had him. :ThmbUp: :5: :ThmbUp:

Thanks Tom, but alas, I still live in Arizona and didn't quite like him enough to make an hour trip just to prove the broken clock adage. :D

[johnhannibalsmith]

Nice hit, POT.

Indeed. :ThmbUp:

I talked myself off of the two favorites pretty easily in that one, but just couldn't get onto Swagger Jack even if he had much the best name. :)

[PhantomOnTour]

yes yes - Swagger Jack...he got a very nice pace war in front of him in quick time to set up his rally.
Clearly Now (i think i like him even more now) just got nailed late by Declan's Warrior...damn. Had a 3 wide pace battling trip and put em all away before getting run down.

small score in the Wood and Ashland also...nice day

thx for the kudos y'all :ThmbUp:

[Exotic1]

yes yes - Swagger Jack...he got a very nice pace war in front of him in quick time to set up his rally.
Clearly Now (i think i like him even more now) just got nailed late by Declan's Warrior...damn. Had a 3 wide pace battling trip and put em all away before getting run down.

small score in the Wood and Ashland also...nice day

thx for the kudos y'all :ThmbUp:

With a little better trip, Fort Loudon gets third (minimum) and gives you the Super and Tri, ice cold. You called it right, SJ was going to get first crack at closing into the compact field before Sahara Sky would. With Consortium out breaking FL and with FL stuck on rail, he never could get any separation. Very good analysis and great betting. IMO.