GOLD

[Tape Reader]

GOLD!

I feel that the most recent bullish wave has corrected (home grown stuff) and that the next major move is up. This move will bring the "currency" to new all time highs. What say you?

Tape Reader

[lamboguy]

gold is not an investment these days, its an insurance policy.

[thaskalos]

gold is not an investment these days, its an insurance policy.
I felt the same about some Greek government bonds I bought a few years ago...

[TJDave]

gold is not an investment these days, its an insurance policy.

Against what?

Go down to the grocery store or filling station and see what you can buy with gold.

[classhandicapper]

Against what?



Against the irresponsible and incompetent actions of governments and central bankers that think debasing paper currencies and transferring wealth from savers to themselves and international bankers is a sound and fair economic policy.

Essentially, gold is a bet that the stupidity and evil of governments and bankers will eventually blow up their face and people will want "things" as a store of value because they'll come to realize that paper is worthless unless you are taking a dump. It's a long term bet.

[Valuist]

Its the ultimate exchange wager: gold against the Keynesians and their money printing.

[TJDave]

Against the irresponsible and incompetent actions of governments and central bankers that think debasing paper currencies and transferring wealth from savers to themselves and international bankers is a sound and fair economic policy.


Yeah, but I still don't understand how it would work. Are you saying that after our currency becomes worthless people will pay for things with actual gold?

Like a gallon of milk and a loaf of bread?

[classhandicapper]

Yeah, but I still don't understand how it would work. Are you saying that after our currency becomes worthless people will pay for things with actual gold?

Like a gallon of milk and a loaf of bread?

I doubt it unless the entire system collapsed.

What would likely happen is that inflation would start rising sharply and people would start realizing they were losing net worth adjusted for inflation keeping their money in banks, government bonds etc... So they would look for alternatives. As more and more people started using gold/silver etc.. as a store of value there would be political pressure to back our paper money with gold again or develop a way of writing paper checks and using debit cards off accounts backed in gold etc..

[Robert Fischer]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/08/japan-yen-idUSL3N0CV0G220130408 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/08/japan-yen-idUSL3N0CV0G220130408)
"Dollar poised to overtake 100 yen milestone"


now folks... it's very important that we realize that this isn't about weakening the yen in it's relationship to other currencies, it's about 'beating deflation'. :rolleyes:

some call this stuff currency wars, i don't follow that stuff tbh




How do you say quantitative easing in Japanese ?




the BoJ will combine its APP and Rinban operations into a single quantitative easing facility. It will also abandon its ‘bank notes rule’ that restricted its JGB holdings to the size of currency in circulation...



Here is a random Gold Blog that relates the Japanese massive QE to the prices of Gold and Silver:
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/04/japan-unleashes-massive-quantitative.html?showComment=1365252683124

[Magister Ludi]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/08/japan-yen-idUSL3N0CV0G220130408 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/08/japan-yen-idUSL3N0CV0G220130408)
"Dollar poised to overtake 100 yen milestone"


now folks... it's very important that we realize that this isn't about weakening the yen in it's relationship to other currencies, it's about 'beating deflation'. :rolleyes:

some call this stuff currency wars, i don't follow that stuff tbh




How do you say quantitative easing in Japanese ?




the BoJ will combine its APP and Rinban operations into a single quantitative easing facility. It will also abandon its ‘bank notes rule’ that restricted its JGB holdings to the size of currency in circulation...



Here is a random Gold Blog that relates the Japanese massive QE to the prices of Gold and Silver:
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/04/japan-unleashes-massive-quantitative.html?showComment=1365252683124


Japanese Political Simulator (http://rumvodkarecipe.com/japansimulator.htm)

[PaceAdvantage]

Wednesday's action surely put the original thread starter theory to the test...and to make matters worse, Goldman Sachs said Wednesday to SHORT GOLD.

When was the last time Goldman Sachs said you should short ANYTHING? :lol: :lol:

Gold was down around $30 at one point on Wednesday...good luck!

On another note, Treasuries sure have given back all that gain they had a few days ago...that move looked STRONG...but giving all this back in only a few days spells weak to me...

I've been saying for months now to LIFT THE OFFER on the broad market...those who agreed with me have profited handsomely...and this move isn't over...the only thing that can kill it is a nuke from North Korea, or maybe an attack by Israel on Iran...

Other than some unforeseen world event, we are in the midst of the big final push up before the real correction takes hold...when that happens is unknown at this point, IMO.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1309041&highlight=lift+offer#post1309041

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1335975&highlight=lift+offer#post1335975

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1417555&highlight=lift+offer#post1417555

When I first said to Lift The Offer on July 19, 2012, in the ULTIMATE DEATH CROSS thread, the S&P was at 1376...it's now at 1587...that's a cool 15% in 9 months...not stellar, but it's better than losing...

[PaceAdvantage]

And by the way, I say the VIX goes to historically low values before this is all over...we're talking single digits...it's never been below 10, correct?

With that said though, the VIX is due for another spike up...maybe to the 25-30 level...I'm thinking sometime in May...

[Tape Reader]

Wednesday's action surely put the original thread starter theory to the test...and to make matters worse, Goldman Sachs said Wednesday to SHORT GOLD.

When was the last time Goldman Sachs said you should short ANYTHING? :lol: :lol:

Gold was down around $30 at one point on Wednesday...good luck!

On another note, Treasuries sure have given back all that gain they had a few days ago...that move looked STRONG...but giving all this back in only a few days spells weak to me...t of the big final push up before the real correction takes hold...when that happens is unknown at this point, IMO.

My opinion on gold is 100% technical of the chart. I do not consider potential "events" Treasuries, or the stock market.

I say that Goldman Sachs is wrong. The next major move in gold is up.

[lamboguy]

the last time silver and gold touched the 200 week moving average was in 2009, both had huge runs to the upside at that point in time. i didn't realize it, but silver touched the 200 week about 2 weeks ago @ $26.60. the 200 week for gold is currently $1460. gold may have to test that out as well. my guess it will by the end of june this year.

to me i have respected this average in long term bull and bear markets. it certainly is cutting it close now. it is the narrowest margin today than it has been the last 12 years. that being said, you have your back up against the wall now in both silver and gold.

if one looks at what has happened in Cypress, the middle east and North Korea, and see that there is no movement what so ever in price is very scary at the moment. but that is what bull markets are all about, they scare you out of your positions.

[iceknight]

My opinion on gold is 100% technical of the chart. I do not consider potential "events" Treasuries, or the stock market.

I say that Goldman Sachs is wrong. The next major move in gold is up. They are not wrong, ever. But that does not mean they will tell others to do the right thing. In fact, most of the time their advice is after the event happened.
Or if things go against them, they will change things around to suit them. Don't forget that apart from the many rich people who invest/bank with GS, Warren Buffet also owns ton of GS stock and warrants.

[PaceAdvantage]

They are not wrong, ever.Ain't that the truth. What was that story I read a few years ago? Where during an entire trading year, they only had one or two losing days or was it one or two losing weeks on their trading desk. Something insanely absurd like that...

[lamboguy]

Goldman Sachs is doing their job, gold is down $25 this morning, 200 week exponential moving average is $1462. price is heading for that number and should kiss it. if gold breaks $1500 it will scare every weak hand out of the metal.

if i am right, at that point Goldman Sachs will be buying the gold from those weak hands.

[RaceBookJoe]

Goldman Sachs is doing their job, gold is down $25 this morning, 200 week exponential moving average is $1462. price is heading for that number and should kiss it. if gold breaks $1500 it will scare every weak hand out of the metal.

if i am right, at that point Goldman Sachs will be buying the gold from those weak hands.

That was a beautiful short. /GC went bonkers around 7:30pdt. Its still giving amazing trades. Its lost 1500 a few times so far, see where it closes.

[Valuist]

Goldman Sachs is doing their job, gold is down $25 this morning, 200 week exponential moving average is $1462. price is heading for that number and should kiss it. if gold breaks $1500 it will scare every weak hand out of the metal.

if i am right, at that point Goldman Sachs will be buying the gold from those weak hands.

I agree, although I question how many weak hands there will be. Usually the weak hands are the retail buyers, but I don't see them doing much selling of gold.

[lamboguy]

the reason why the gold market is different this time around from the late 1970's is there was no paper market back then. we now have 2 different markets. the GLD and other ETF's have to sell gold when their funds have liquidations. a big down move will exaggerate the selling. gold going down to under $1500 will really ignite selling. there are plenty of paper stops just under that round number.

if there is one thing that i have learned about the gold market is that it won't go up when every one thinks that's the direction its going. gold is going to need every one scared and hating the metal before it moves up.

[PaceAdvantage]

Wow, talk about your panic selling...Gold is down another $25 in overnight trading...and in fact was as low as $1425...now back up to $1446...was $1476 if I remember correctly on Friday...damn...

And it actually approached $1500 soon after trading opened at 6pm EDT Sunday...so it's already had a $75 range and it's barely Monday....

[pandy]

Down $88 right now. Fortunately crude oil is also down sharply, trading at below $89.

[sammy the sage]

Means % rates are ABOUT to go UP...

[pandy]

The Today show news coverage is so lame. On their "Checking The Markets" segment this morning they didn't even mention gold or oil prices dropping. Instead they talked about earnings reports coming later this week.

[badcompany]

They are not wrong, ever. But that does not mean they will tell others to do the right thing. In fact, most of the time their advice is after the event happened.
Or if things go against them, they will change things around to suit them. Don't forget that apart from the many rich people who invest/bank with GS, Warren Buffet also owns ton of GS stock and warrants.

It's not that they're some super geniuses, but as one of the biggest Market Makers, they can see the order flow and can buy and sell accordingly.

Poker is an easy game when the other guys' cards are exposed.

[DJofSD]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100640665

[Saratoga_Mike]

Ain't that the truth. What was that story I read a few years ago? Where during an entire trading year, they only had one or two losing days or was it one or two losing weeks on their trading desk. Something insanely absurd like that...

That's on the prop side of the house, and in general it isn't humans making the decisions (granted they built the programs). The sell-side of the firm is wrong all the time, and the sell-side made the call on gold.

[PaceAdvantage]

The sell-side of the firm is wrong all the time, and the sell-side made the call on gold.And what a call it was...Gold down about $120 today alone...

[BlueShoe]

Gold down 140 as I type these words. Silver is actually doing worse on a percentage basis, down over 10%. Just about everything is down this AM. Only good news is that crude is down 3 bucks, gas prices lower by a tick? Happy income tax day to all. :rolleyes:

[JBmadera]

/GC, /SI, /CL what a slaughter. Very margin calls coming I would guess.

Stopped out of my /CL swing short when it spiked to 94.82 the other day. That stop run cost me several months living expenses...... :mad:

[Saratoga_Mike]

And what a call it was...Gold down about $120 today alone...

phenomenal.

[DJofSD]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/15/us-markets-commodities-idUSBRE93E0LK20130415

[RaceBookJoe]

/GC has been insane...i feel like a drunk cowboy riding an even drunker bull at a rodeo :)

[RaceBookJoe]

Has anyone been playing DUST, another absolute monster lately.

[Valuist]

Celente on the move in gold:

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/4/17_Gerald_Celente.html

[RaceBookJoe]

Heard earlier today that supposedly Paulsen lost $1B on the gold selloff.

[badcompany]

Heard earlier today that supposedly Paulsen lost $1B on the gold selloff.

Einhorn got creamed, too. His recent performance must be horrible, as his top 3 holdings are Gold, Apple and GM.

[RaceBookJoe]

Einhorn got creamed, too. His recent performance must be horrible, as his top 3 holdings are Gold, Apple and GM.

Ouch haha

[badcompany]

Ouch haha

Even though the market has had a good year, so far, I believe many Mutual Fund investors are going to be unpleasantly surprised by their Funds' performance, as many have Apple as their largest holding.

[RaceBookJoe]

Even though the market has had a good year, so far, I believe many Mutual Fund investors are going to be unpleasantly surprised by their Funds' performance, as many have Apple as their largest holding.

Tend to agree with you. Still a long way to go before year-end, but if your account ( MF Managers i mean ) isnt up at this point, they need to be replaced.

[lamboguy]

it looks like gold is heading back down to 1320 to try to test a bottom. if that doesn't hold 1270 is next stop. gold miners are all weak too and look like a further break in them is coming

[PaceAdvantage]

Tend to agree with you. Still a long way to go before year-end, but if your account ( MF Managers i mean ) isnt up at this point, they need to be replaced.I directed my 401k to go full bore (50%) into real estate holdings about two years ago...and I've been one happy camper every three months since (around statement time)...still don't see any reason to allocate out of real estate either...does anyone here disagree with me?

[PaceAdvantage]

Man, Gold has been a day trader's wet dream in the after-hours tonight...50 point swings up and down with ease...crazy!! Action like this only comes around once every couple of years...this time, it's Gold...

[Valuist]

Even though the market has had a good year, so far, I believe many Mutual Fund investors are going to be unpleasantly surprised by their Funds' performance, as many have Apple as their largest holding.

That is true. Same thing for the QQQ. I think at one point, AAPL made up 19% of the QQQ.

[RaceBookJoe]

I directed my 401k to go full bore (50%) into real estate holdings about two years ago...and I've been one happy camper every three months since (around statement time)...still don't see any reason to allocate out of real estate either...does anyone here disagree with me?

You made an important point, YOU directed it, not some guy in an office. THe problem is that most people just give their money to a firm, have no clue what is being bought and then get mad if they lose money..I call that being very careless. About real estate, i dont like to make predictions, but i think there is a bubble out there waiting, only time will tell and i dont put money out on a hunch. In any sector i would rather let the big money show me where to go.

[PaceAdvantage]

Up $25 and back up over the $1400 mark in overnight trading this morning...

[RaceBookJoe]

AP got hacked, sent gold and the rest of the markets moving, bounced right back to prior-hack levels. Gotta love it.

[Valuist]

Very distressing news regarding gold:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/23_Sinclair_-_Swiss_Bank_Just_Refused_To_Give_My_Friend_His_Gol d.html

[DJofSD]

Very distressing news regarding gold:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/23_Sinclair_-_Swiss_Bank_Just_Refused_To_Give_My_Friend_His_Gol d.html
Yes, it is. Very. The emporer's clothes comes to mind.

[RaceBookJoe]

I also heard that GS has covered their short on gold.

[classhandicapper]

Yes, it is. Very. The emporer's clothes comes to mind.


It's hard to know what's really going on, but there are a few things that are closet to 100% certain.

1. Gold is the most popular monetary alternative to fiat currencies (and IMO best alternative).

2. Governments, central bankers, and Wall St/international bankers all have reason to be hostile towards gold.

a) Governments benefit from the ability to print money to finance the welfare/warfare state and extract wealth from citizens via inflation. If you cut spending or raise taxes you will be held accountable and throw out of office. If you print money and inflation rises, most of the public won't understand the process or make the linkage.

b) Wall St/banks benefit by printing money because they get to make a fortune on the upside of the bubbles all that easy money creates, but then get their losses socialized on the downside.

It's basically an unholy alliance.

It doesn't take much of leap to think that with incentives like these, governments, central bankers, Wall St etc.. will do everything in their power to discredit and manipulate the alternative to their monetary scam (gold) so they can keep that power.

[Valuist]

I also heard that GS has covered their short on gold.

I was going to add that. Certainly smacks of pure manipulation to drive the price down, benefit with a short position, and now get a better entry point to re-enter.

[boxcar]

Very distressing news regarding gold:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/23_Sinclair_-_Swiss_Bank_Just_Refused_To_Give_My_Friend_His_Gol d.html

I tell you a truth: Anyone who maintains any personal bank account, (or even has a safe deposit box) with more money in it than is necessary to meet his ro her monthly obligations is taking a high and unnecessary risk, in my opinion, of course. :)

Boxcar

[lamboguy]

today gold and gold miners had the real first sign of strength. the charts of these things look so bad now that they all look like they have to pull back again to prove that they are all done getting punished.

i love a miner MUX,

[badcompany]

Back in 2010, I bought SLV at about 20. In less than a year, it went up to almost 50, then plunged. I ended up getting stopped out at 35. SLV is currently selling for 23. A greater than 50% drop from a high is more than a correction. Until further notice, the bull market in precious metals is toast. The circus has packed up and moved to another town.

[RaceBookJoe]

DUST got hammered today, saw it too late and options volume was too low anyways. Also, there are signs that the internal market is starting to crumble, but thats not to say the bull run is over yet. It took about 3 yrs from the 1st sign of trouble until the dotcom era came crashing down.

[lamboguy]

DUST got hammered today, saw it too late and options volume was too low anyways. Also, there are signs that the internal market is starting to crumble, but thats not to say the bull run is over yet. It took about 3 yrs from the 1st sign of trouble until the dotcom era came crashing down.DUST is tripple oxygen!

they are nothing but options, you are probably better off shorting these things instead of going long. there is plenty of premium that erodes on a daily basis.

i watched banks a few years ago, FAS and FAZ, they are opposite each other, 3 years ago you would have lost no matter which side you picked.

[RaceBookJoe]

DUST is tripple oxygen!

they are nothing but options, you are probably better off shorting these things instead of going long. there is plenty of premium that erodes on a daily basis.

i watched banks a few years ago, FAS and FAZ, they are opposite each other, 3 years ago you would have lost no matter which side you picked.

I nailed DUST long last week, cant short it and the puts were just too low on volume. Only daytrading, never holding overnight. I usually just play /GC but when it moved down DUST went flying.

[lamboguy]

gold is up early in the paper market today. it is creeping back to inside its 200 week moving average. that might prevent it from going back down to test the bottom again, but it does not mean it is out of its bear market. it needs to see about $1700 to confirm that.

[RaceBookJoe]

gold is up early in the paper market today. it is creeping back to inside its 200 week moving average. that might prevent it from going back down to test the bottom again, but it does not mean it is out of its bear market. it needs to see about $1700 to confirm that.

DUST looks to be opening way below yesterdays close also. I wont say the bottom is in on gold, but i do think it trends back up from here especially if the market starts to fall.

[lamboguy]

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/23/failure-to-understand-the-commodity-market/

[RaceBookJoe]

/GC with another beautiful sell off, DUST flew..got $5 move on it :)

[Valuist]

Whispers are that the huge selloff a week or two ago was triggered by a very large margin call in Japan.

[PICSIX]

Down to $1,293.

[Valuist]

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/27_Available_Gold_Supply_Disappearing_As_Gold_Pric e_Plunges.html

[RaceBookJoe]

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/27_Available_Gold_Supply_Disappearing_As_Gold_Pric e_Plunges.html

/GC trading over $1225 right now, big moves today up and down

[classhandicapper]

I bought a little more this week.

[PaceAdvantage]

ETFs aren't being stripped of gold...they are dumping it because the price is cratering....

Has anyone considered that Gold may have actually been way overpriced? That this whole "end of civilization" thing was way overblown?

Inflation is still in check, relatively, given how much the Fed has pumped into the system. Didn't that give the Gold bugs any sort of pause?

There comes a point where one has to admit they might be wrong.

Do you guys actually think Gold is going to rebound back to where it was and beyond anytime soon? That would be a scenario never seen before, would it not?

[sammy the sage]

Hey P.A....why don't try to get yore hands on ACTUAL PHYSICAL gold at today's current prices....under$1300...from a legit source...just make a few calls...

That price you're seeing IS PAPER leveraged at 100/1...HHHmmmm

[lamboguy]

ETFs aren't being stripped of gold...they are dumping it because the price is cratering....

Has anyone considered that Gold may have actually been way overpriced? That this whole "end of civilization" thing was way overblown?

Inflation is still in check, relatively, given how much the Fed has pumped into the system. Didn't that give the Gold bugs any sort of pause?

There comes a point where one has to admit they might be wrong.

Do you guys actually think Gold is going to rebound back to where it was and beyond anytime soon? That would be a scenario never seen before, would it not?actually we have seen one of the biggest bull markets of all time, the United States long bond. its been in a bull since 1982. during that period there were million's of guys that sounded just like you do right now about gold. everyone was saying that the bond run was a sucker market and that those that were in it were going to get cleaned out. i remember the station before CNBC parading guests on all day long explaining why the bond market was going to collapse. the very same thing is going on with gold now.
the gold market has been the easiest thing to trade that i have ever seen. you buy physical, and when you think its had to much and to fast of a run you short the paper. even a dope like me did well in this market. i took the money i made i bought more gold now. i am not looking for the gold market to collapse. i knew that it was going to have a tough time staying up during this presidents second term. a new president gets here in 3 years and will have their chance to wreck the economy some more,

[PaceAdvantage]

But just think lambo...if only Romney had been elected...you did say once that if Romney had won, gold would have doubled in price overnight.... :lol:

Sometimes I think you guys are putting me on...

And I never said gold was going to collapse into something worthless...

So what's the current premium re: physical gold versus the spot price?

[classhandicapper]

ETFs aren't being stripped of gold...they are dumping it because the price is cratering....

Has anyone considered that Gold may have actually been way overpriced? That this whole "end of civilization" thing was way overblown?

Inflation is still in check, relatively, given how much the Fed has pumped into the system. Didn't that give the Gold bugs any sort of pause?

There comes a point where one has to admit they might be wrong.

Do you guys actually think Gold is going to rebound back to where it was and beyond anytime soon? That would be a scenario never seen before, would it not?

Gold in NOT for the feint of heart.

The only way I know to value gold that makes any sense is production costs. If the price far exceeds the production costs, then profits and return on capital at the miners rises. That encourages more exploration and the opening of mines that were perhaps unprofitable at lower levels. Hence the supply rises and the price falls. The same thing happens in reverse.

There are still many mines that are profitable at these levels, but a bunch are not. So they are going to be shut. Some of the weaker miners may go out of business or be consolidated etc... So you could say that at $1900 it was probably too high, but at $1200 we are moving into good value range. That's why I bought it twice in the last 6 weeks or so after not having bought any since it was in the $400 range.

All that will become irrelevant the day the rest of the world figures out that our current banking and monetary system is woefully unsound and must be scrapped and replaced by a sound system. Whether they will figure it out intellectually or when the system actually collapses is anyone's guess, but I'm hoping for the former and keeping gold in case it's the latter.

The reason we have no inflation now is a 2 part answer.

1. The US government cooked the books to lower the reported inflation rate. That had a variety of favorable "political" impacts ranging from government spending (lower cost of living increases) and taxes (bracket creep). It also allows the government to say the economy is growing faster because real GDP
growth is the difference between nominal GDP and inflation. Lie about inflation and "reported" GDP growth rises. lmao So all this is a way to not cut spending or raise taxes in a bill where everyone can hold you accountable. You screw people via the back door of inflation that you are lying about and get to tell them everything is fine.

2. Much of the money that has been printed (several trillion right now) is sitting on deposit at the Fed and hasn't worked it's way out into the system yet where it could cause much higher inflation. That's what all these conversations about "tapering", "reversing" etc.. are about.

How do they unwind all that money printing without crushing the economy with much higher interest rates and if they don't how do they stop the inevitable inlfation?

IMO they petty much CANNOT. So they will probably come up with some other creative but unsound and irresponsible way to delay the inevitable for a few more years.

GDP is a terrible way to measure the health of an economy because:

1. They lie
2. It's hard to measure everything accurately
3. You can create the ILLUSION of a healthy economy with easy money and credit.

Let me give you an example.

About 1 1/2 years ago my father was in critical condition. It was fairly clear he was close to death, but they pumped him full of antibiotics, medications for is heart, blood pressure, water level etc...Even though he was on the verge of dying, his vital signs were normal. They wouldn't have been normal without tons of drugs, but they were normal.

Right now interest rates are artificially low (they are negative in real terms) because the Fed is pumping 1 trillion dollars into the economy annually while the Federal government is spending close to 1 trillion dollars it does not have. Our vital signs are barely normal despite massively more medication than the earth has seen in world history. We are basically in intensive care. So is western Europe and possibly even Japan and others.

We got to this place because the system is unsound. We won't get out of it easily and the system could die just like my father. If you want to bet on an unsound system and incompetent and irresponsible leadership to lead us out of this mess in an orderly fashion, you can. I have a portfolio of stocks also.

I just think a little gold in your portfolio is not such a bad idea even if it leads to some more short term losses.

[lamboguy]

But just think lambo...if only Romney had been elected...you did say once that if Romney had won, gold would have doubled in price overnight.... :lol:

Sometimes I think you guys are putting me on...

And I never said gold was going to collapse into something worthless...

So what's the current premium re: physical gold versus the spot price?i just bought United States $50 gold Buffalo coins for $60 over the spot price of gold. the dealer that i have been buying from only had 70 of them for me. i bought another 30 United States $50 eagles for $50 over spot. the premiums on gold coins in this country never really jumped that much. i heard that in foreign country's they went way up, and in the largest country that buys gold they raised the tariff, India.

as far as Romney went, his plan was different than what got elected. he was never going to let the chineese buy cheap gold like what Obama is doing now.

i don't think its that great for our county to allow cheap gold to be sold on the open due to manipulation. if Romney was president there was no chance that gold would have been less than $3000 right now and probably more.

[Saratoga_Mike]

ETFs aren't being stripped of gold...they are dumping it because the price is cratering....

Has anyone considered that Gold may have actually been way overpriced? That this whole "end of civilization" thing was way overblown?

Inflation is still in check, relatively, given how much the Fed has pumped into the system. Didn't that give the Gold bugs any sort of pause?

There comes a point where one has to admit they might be wrong.

Do you guys actually think Gold is going to rebound back to where it was and beyond anytime soon? That would be a scenario never seen before, would it not?

I posted the following on 4/15/13:

"Plot gold in real terms (inflation-adjusted) from 1913 to today - what do you find? Gold -- over 3 standard deviations from the mean. But hey goldbugs can go with their "gut" feel. I like facts and numbers."

Guess what? Gold's still overvalued using this method, a method I consider far superior to "I feel like gold should be higher because of the Fed." Where is gold fairly valued? $850.

[Saratoga_Mike]

i don't think its that great for our county to allow cheap gold to be sold on the open due to manipulation. if Romney was president there was no chance that gold would have been less than $3000 right now and probably more.

You've said this before. It's nonsense. Romney would have looked to replace BB with someone much more hawkish, not someone like Janet Yellen who is currently being talked about as a replacement.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Right now interest rates are artificially low (they are negative in real terms) because the Fed is pumping 1 trillion dollars into the economy annually while the Federal government is spending close to 1 trillion dollars it does not have. Our vital signs are barely normal despite massively more medication than the earth has seen in world history. We are basically in intensive care. So is western Europe and possibly even Japan and others.

.

No. The long-end of the curve is depressed because the velocity of the money has dropped so precipitously since 2008. If you think the long-end is being artificially depressed by the Fed, then why is the 10-yr German bund yielding roughly 75 bps less than the US equivalent? The French equivalent yields about the same. Canada about the same. Austria about 20 bps less. I could go on. In addition, plot the US 10-yr yield under QE1 and QE2? What do you see? During both QE1 and QE2, yields on the long end went UP.

[classhandicapper]

No. The long-end of the curve is depressed because the velocity of the money has dropped so precipitously since 2008. If you think the long-end is being artificially depressed by the Fed, then why is the 10-yr German bund yielding roughly 75 bps less than the US equivalent? The French equivalent yields about the same. Canada about the same. Austria about 20 bps less. I could go on. In addition, plot the US 10-yr yield under QE1 and QE2? What do you see? During both QE1 and QE2, yields on the long end went UP.

I agree that a huge part of the reason long term rates are low is because the economy is so weak. But part of the reason is both operation twist and QE 1,2,3,4....infinity.

The Fed has been actively TRYING to lower real long term interest rates by targeting the long bond in operation twist in the hope lower long term rates would help housing and stimulate other economic activity.

In addition, there's an opportunity for banks that are paying close to 0% on deposits right now to simply purchase longer dated treasuries and other long bonds to make money on that spread. It's free money......until they get nailed. :lol:

There may be some offsetting factors that cause ups and downs in rates (including some investors seeing all the money printing as increasing inflation expectations), but without all the money printing globally IMO rates would be higher or the economy would have totally tanked.

The bottom line is that short term real interest rates that the Fed sets are NEGATIVE and it had spread up the yield curve (how far is dependent on your view of what the real inflation rate is ). That's an unnatural state of affairs. It's not even a free market condition. It's induced by the Fed and other central banks.

[highnote]

John Mauldin wrote this about gold in his weekly newsletter today:

He is writing about Cyprus and how the citizens didn't see the crisis happening, until it happened. France thinks a crisis won't hit them. They think they are different. Mauldin is optimistic that the U.S. can avoid a debt crisis, however.... (bolding mine)

The BANG! Moment comes, say Rogoff &Reinhart, when a wary bond market refuses to buy debt at a price that is financially sustainable for the debtor. In that moment, confidence and trust are lost. Can France pull back from that precipice? Surely. Nothing is hopeless, and my French correspondent is no less hopeful that his mother country, France, will avoid a crisis than I am hopeful about the US. Somehow, I must confess, I really do think that the US is different and will see the warning lights and pull back from the brink. At the same time, I squirrel away a little gold every month, just in case. I guess at the end of the day I truly don't trust the bastards. (By the way, I am happy to see the gold price drop, because that means I get more pieces of gold for my pieces of paper. But then, I am not buying gold as an investment but as central bank insurance. I like it when my insurance premiums go down.

[so.cal.fan]

What happens if interest rates have to keep going up?
Doesn't the fed lose a ton of money it's pumped into bonds that were paying very low interest? They will have to exit at a loss?
This sounds very problematic.

The problem with gold is "who sets the price of it"? If we try to pay off our debt with inflated gold price and other countries aren't buying into it, then what?

That said, I like what the Jews were saying decades ago in Europe....."always have enough gold on you to pay off a border guard"

Hope we never come to that. :eek:

[lamboguy]

with all this bs with the dollar price of gold falling more than $600, diamonds have done nothing but go way up. the problem with diamonds are that they are just an opinion. one expert can look at a stone and declare as a G color, the next guy doesn't see it quite the same way and will grade it an H. the same thing the imperfections of the stone. with gold there is no guesswork. as long as its real, someone will give you fiat currency for your gold.

the reason why there has been such a big demand for the diamonds is because they don't show up in metal detectors at airports.

personally i am not worried about having to leave this great country. i am more worried that the thieving government will figure out how to steal my money out of a bank that i trust to give to their friends or welfare recipients.

what i really don't understand is that the conservatives on this board question the purposes of gold. conservatives are supposed to be against big governments that they don't trust. that is what gold is all about. go figure.

[Valuist]

Cost of production is around $1300/ounce. At these levels, you will see smaller miners back off and lay people off. The physical demand is still very strong. Yet less and less will be produced. Eventually this is going to once again force a strong move upward.

[badcompany]

It's not a matter of questioning the purpose of Gold. It's a matter of of living in the world as it is, not as I think it should be. Yes, I think I believe a Gold backed currency is the most sustainable path, however as it stands, now, gold is NOT money. If you don't believe me, go to your local supermarket and try to pay the cashier with Gold.

For me, all that matters is price. I don't give a shite how many know-it-all talking heads make a case for an asset class, if the trend is down, I'm not biting. I can remember about a year ago, all the geniuses were saying that Chase had covered its Silver short. Silver was at 30, then. How's it doing, now?

[Valuist]

with all this bs with the dollar price of gold falling more than $600, diamonds have done nothing but go way up. the problem with diamonds are that they are just an opinion. one expert can look at a stone and declare as a G color, the next guy doesn't see it quite the same way and will grade it an H. the same thing the imperfections of the stone. with gold there is no guesswork. as long as its real, someone will give you fiat currency for your gold.

the reason why there has been such a big demand for the diamonds is because they don't show up in metal detectors at airports.

personally i am not worried about having to leave this great country. i am more worried that the thieving government will figure out how to steal my money out of a bank that i trust to give to their friends or welfare recipients.

what i really don't understand is that the conservatives on this board question the purposes of gold. conservatives are supposed to be against big governments that they don't trust. that is what gold is all about. go figure.

Lambo-

Not all the conservatives on this board are against gold. I'm in agreement with you on gold. The chart looks bad (right now) but considering the run since 2001, it isn't terribly surprising. But the downtrend will be short lived, IMO.

[lamboguy]

Lambo-

Not all the conservatives on this board are against gold. I'm in agreement with you on gold. The chart looks bad (right now) but considering the run since 2001, it isn't terribly surprising. But the downtrend will be short lived, IMO.when i walk into a supermarket and buy groceries, i have to pay whatever the price is marked. once in awhile the supermarket posts a reduced price or offers a coupon to buy the grocery. when that happens i buy the grocery and say thank you very much. the very same thing is happening right now with gold. the way i am looking at it, i am getting about $3500 worth of protection for $1200. i buy my gold and say thank you to the powers that be.

[highnote]

Cost of production is around $1300/ounce. At these levels, you will see smaller miners back off and lay people off. The physical demand is still very strong. Yet less and less will be produced. Eventually this is going to once again force a strong move upward.


One analyst said in the past week or so that the cost of production is probably around $1300 for inefficient miners -- like the inexperienced start-up junior miners in Canada, but it's more like 800 or 900 for the better ones.

[Valuist]

Here's Fleckenstein on the markets and gold. He was dead right in 1999 (a little early) about the dot.com nonsense would blow up. He was right again (a bit more early) around 2005-2006 on the real estate bubble would end with horrific results. He says we are headed for more problems; some feel it could be worse than 2008:

http://money.msn.com/bill-fleckenstein/post--wall-st-is-like-a-box-of-chocolates

[lamboguy]

the bounce in gold the last 2 days don't mean a thing. the price has traveled up on very thin volume.

[PaceAdvantage]

The physical demand is still very strong.Where? All I keep reading about is how China and India aren't buying gold anywhere near what they used to...now at these levels, who knows...maybe they will start again...

[lamboguy]

Where? All I keep reading about is how China and India aren't buying gold anywhere near what they used to...now at these levels, who knows...maybe they will start again...Chineese people still buying, India isn't.

Indian Government bought a whole bunch of gold at $1050 about 4 years ago. China was supposed to buy and never did. that has always been the danger in gold when it got high, China is way below the appropriate holdings in the IMF. they have refused to buy plenty of times. but their citizens are buying the stuff but don't get the physical in their hands, they are only getting the paper proxy for the gold.

what all this means is that, i can't figure out what gold is going to do or not do going forward and neither can anyone else. its strictly an insurance policy. i said this before, they have made it real easy to own physical and short the paper market. if i figured that out a long time ago, the big boys must have also in spades.

[Valuist]

Where? All I keep reading about is how China and India aren't buying gold anywhere near what they used to...now at these levels, who knows...maybe they will start again...

Who said its falling in India? According to this, that's not the case:

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/05/31/india-gold-demand-wgc-idINDEE94U09B20130531

[Valuist]

Dennis Gartman: "watershed moment for gold":

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100858216

[highnote]

It might have been Gartman who said it is the inefficient minors whose cost of production $1300 per ounce while the established mines are in the 8-9 hundred dollar range.

[lamboguy]

republican Steven Forbes believes that the dollar should be pegged to a fixed gold price.

for those that remember i was calling for $5000 fixed gold price if Romney got elected. i knew that this was going to be the backbone of a republican led economic plan for this country. now that Obama got the second term and has fought the price of gold and kept it way down, i suspect that the $5000 number that i predicted 2 years will be a lot more going forward.http://www.kitco.com/news/video/

[so.cal.fan]

lambo?
Interesting, but I have one question about this?
Who sets the price of gold?
What if the US says our gold/dollar is $5K, and China or Russia and others say "wait a minuet, gold is $12.5K and ounce.
Are we (the dollar) that powerful? Perhaps, but I'm not so sure.

[lamboguy]

lambo?
Interesting, but I have one question about this?
Who sets the price of gold?
What if the US says our gold/dollar is $5K, and China or Russia and others say "wait a minuet, gold is $12.5K and ounce.
Are we (the dollar) that powerful? Perhaps, but I'm not so sure.unfortunately you might be right at this point of time. the gold market itself is pretty small. i never expected gold to get this low vs. the dollar, but it has and it might get lower. instead of supporting gold, we trashed it.

[Valuist]

Gold appears to have bottomed in late June. Many of us believe it (the paper price) has been manipulated downward as there has not been any significant drop off in physical demand. Also, publicly traded pawn shop companies tend to trade in relation to gold. Yet when one looks at EZPW, First Cash Financial and Cash America, there was no implosion. FCFS came down a bit but nothing like the paper price in gold. Toss in the fact that Goldman came out a couple months ago telling clients to short gold, it just smacks of manipulation to get the weak hands out, and buy more themselves at lower prices.

[lamboguy]

every market is manipulated to different degrees. the demand for gold has always been there, but in this bull run the demand was satisfied by both physical and paper in the form of ETF's such as GLD. the GLD fund has to own a certain percentage in physical metal. if large traders short the GLD and there isn't enough demand for the product, the fund has to sell the physical gold that is held in that structure. back in the late 1970's it was not quite that easy to hold gold and hedge it if you thought it was going down. today you can put up your gold as collateral and short the paper.

on another note, Gold is now a tier 1 asset class which means that a bank can take it as collateral or buy the stuff themselves for their own portfolio's.

[so.cal.fan]

Oh come on Valuist!

Goldman Sachs wouldn't do anything that dishonest!!!!!!!
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Well, maybe :eek:

[PaceAdvantage]

Oh come on Valuist!

Goldman Sachs wouldn't do anything that dishonest!!!!!!!
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Well, maybe :eek:How is it being dishonest if they are publicly telling you they think Gold should be shorted/lower.

It would be manipulation if they were shorting gold and telling people to buy, knowing the price was going lower...or if they were doing something else behind the scenes to drive the price where they want it to go...

I wish I had listened to them...what a fantastic call they made, that anybody could have followed and made a ton of money in the process...

[PaceAdvantage]

Many of us believe it (the paper price) has been manipulated downward as there has not been any significant drop off in physical demand.I've posted before where it has been reported that China and India were/are not buying gold with their usual gusto this year. Since they are two usual and very big buyers of gold, how can physical demand NOT be down with these two stepping back for a while?

[so.cal.fan]

I'm not saying not to invest with them, PA, after all they are big winners....
The thing that is kind of troubling is a lot of their former executives now run the world financial systems.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not saying not to invest with them, PA, after all they are big winners....
The thing that is kind of troubling is a lot of their former executives now run the world financial systems.Well, I was just talking about following their call. You don't have to invest with them...I remember when the call came out over the wires...

And why wouldn't you expect many of their former executives to move onto prominent positions elsewhere in finance? They only hire the best of the best...

Heck, I'm a big conspiracy buff...and I'm sure GS has their share of dirty dealings...but...sometimes a cigar is just a cigar... :lol:

[so.cal.fan]

Well, I suppose they are really "too big to fail".
I just hope they can keep things afloat.
I'm a very conservative investor....I own Texas School Bonds AAA rated
and SP Utility fund.
I'm not a big gambler, the biggest gambles of all are in the markets.
Good luck to all who dare!

[Valuist]

I've posted before where it has been reported that China and India were/are not buying gold with their usual gusto this year. Since they are two usual and very big buyers of gold, how can physical demand NOT be down with these two stepping back for a while?

I had posted a link (probably earlier in this thread) which stated physical demand was not down in those two countries.

[so.cal.fan]

PA?
Are the Chinese and Indians buying our TBills?

[badcompany]

With Gold looking like it's about to retest 1200, again, seems like a good time to bring a Gold thread back to life.

Silver getting creamed today, too.

[classhandicapper]

IMO the short term price movement of gold will be dependent on the direction of the US economy.

If you believe that printing money and artificially lowering interest rates is the path to prosperity, then you believe the US economy will recover in a sustainable way, real interest rates will rise, the US dollar will strengthen, and gold will fall.

If you believe that printing money and artificially lowering interest rates is temporarily propping up excesses and potentially creating new ones, then you think the economy is eventually going to tank as the punch bowl is removed and/or the excesses reach a critical point. That will in turn cause investors to lose faith in the economy and the US dollar again as the government and Fed resort to even bigger deficits and more money printing to keep the country afloat.

Right now, view #1 is winning the debate. IMHO, view #2 will win the longer term debate.

[tanner12oz]

The floor on both could be a loooooooong way off

[Tape Reader]

Just bot gold. (NUGT) @ 19.86. Anyone else?

[ReplayRandall]

The floor on both could be a loooooooong way off


Last month, Pershing Gold Corp. and Avino Silver and Gold mines both announced the re-opening of mines that were purchased in 2001 and 2008 respectively. I believe the re-opening of these mines sends a signal that the "bottom" has been reached. My investments will be only in physical gold and silver with some numismatic blend. Due to proposed 2015 legislation for the de-coupling of physical vs. paper gold/silver values, I would stay clear of paper precious metal stocks until more legislative clarity becomes available....

[badcompany]

I recall when Silver was $30 the "experts" were proclaiming a bottom because JPM was covering its short positions.

How did that Bottom Call work out?

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/0037ECFF-4BD4-4E9D-9936-849E251BE7B4_zpsiu1dxoeo.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/0037ECFF-4BD4-4E9D-9936-849E251BE7B4_zpsiu1dxoeo.png.html)

[ReplayRandall]

I recall when Silver was $30 the "experts" were proclaiming a bottom because JPM was covering its short positions.

How did that Bottom Call work out?


Okay BC, I'll take the bait........where is silver's bottom?

[badcompany]

Okay BC, I'll take the bait........where is silver's bottom?

No idea.

I don't do forecasting. I do Trend Following. The trend is down and the probabilities favor that it continues to go down.

[ReplayRandall]

No idea.

I don't do forecasting. I do Trend Following. The trend is down and the probabilities favor that it continues to go down.


I do have a solid idea where silver's absolute bottom is----->$15, so say most major silver mining companies in the Silver State of Nevada....the "true" experts and also some of my best friends for over 25 years.

[badcompany]

I do have a solid idea where silver's absolute bottom is----->$15, so say most major silver mining companies in the Silver State of Nevada....the "true" experts and also some of my best friends for over 25 years.

While I'm sure your guys know their stuff, sometimes people very close to a situation tend not to be objective.

What is the basis for this number?

[ReplayRandall]

While I'm sure your guys know their stuff, sometimes people very close to a situation tend not to be objective.

What is the basis for this number?


Since you are well versed in charts, go back to Sept.2nd 2009 and you will see that silver has never breached $15, the closest was on Feb. 8th 2010 at 15.14 and then shooting straight up, maybe using controlled output, hitting a high of Apr.28th 2011 at 48.70 before regressing. Imagine, in just 19 months, the price of silver more than tripled........Why?....might have been an alliance of controlled output. Greed and new players tore this alliance apart from mid-2011 to just last April 2014. The major players are thinking of having a consolidated agreement between them to start anew..........just an opinion.

[badcompany]

Since you are well versed in charts, go back to Sept.2nd 2009 and you will see that silver has never breached $15, the closest was on Feb. 8th 2010 at 15.14 and then shooting straight up, maybe using controlled output, hitting a high of Apr.28th 2011 at 48.70 before regressing. Imagine, in just 19 months, the price of silver more than tripled........Why?....might have been an alliance of controlled output. Greed and new players tore this alliance apart from mid-2011 to just last April 2014. The major players are thinking of having a consolidated agreement between them to start anew..........just an opinion.

It's as good a theory as anything I've heard.

Of course, like all market forecasts it's based on an assumption. In this case:

Because Silver didn't breach $15 in 2009-10, it won't do so, now.

[ReplayRandall]

It's as good a theory as anything I've heard.

Of course, like all market forecasts it's based on an assumption. In this case:

Because Silver didn't breach $15 in 2009-10, it won't do so, now.


BC, on a side note, since you're from Manhattan, thought this breaking news might interest you....


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-to-open-first-physical-store-in-manhattan-2014-10-09?siteid=yhoof2

[badcompany]

BC, on a side note, since you're from Manhattan, thought this breaking news might interest you....


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-to-open-first-physical-store-in-manhattan-2014-10-09?siteid=yhoof2

Looks like yet another loss leader for Amazon. The Apple store works because of the limited product line, and that you get to play with IStuff.

Amazon's appeal is that you DON'T have to go to a store to get stuff and that its product line is unlimited.

Then again, Jeff Bezos is a billionaire and I'm worth considerably less.

[lamboguy]

there is a referendum in Switzerland in regards to government selling and the backing of the currency by gold. this will have big implications on demand for the metal one way or the other. http://news.sharpspixley.com/article/switzerland-about-to-purchase-1500-tonnes-of-gold-/212898/

[PaceAdvantage]

Amazon's appeal is that you DON'T have to go to a store to get stuff and that its product line is unlimited.Exactly what I thought when I read this. They became what they are today by working essentially to ELIMINATE brick and mortar stores. Now they want to run one themselves? Why? What would be the point?

And what exactly are they going to stock this NYC store with? Since they sell basically everything, I suppose they have quite the wide variety of choices... :lol:

[lamboguy]

my guess is that Amazon wants to get into the supermarket and prescription drug business some how so that they can knock out some more business's.

the margins in supermarkets and CVS is insane these days, they will be easy marks for Amazon.

[reckless]

In a NYC suburb, many, many years ago, there was a new concept retail outlet that was the talk of the industry. These stores were popping up all over the USA and of course, there were more than a few IPOs and pump and dump games played by some 'serious' Wall Steet houses.

The concept was called a Catalogue Show Room where people walked in what looked like a well-lit and airy vestibule. You go to a desk and -- no sales rep was there at first -- then you browse a catalogue, with nice pictures and all. If you found an item you liked you filled out some sort of voucher and described the item with catalogue number and price, of course.

A rep shows up, takes the voucher and then goes back behind the curtain. When the rep returns, if they had the item in stock, you paid the bill and if it was small item like a toaster or a shirt, you were give the item right then and there. If it was larger item, such as a TV, you were told to drive around the back to pick it up.

I do not believe they made home deliveries but they may have, especially later on. I went to the show room 2-3 times and every time I went, I was usually the only one in the parlor room :)

The brick and mortar Amazon store, in my opinion, is the 21st century version of the old Catalogue Show Room concept.

[badcompany]

Exactly what I thought when I read this. They became what they are today by working essentially to ELIMINATE brick and mortar stores. Now they want to run one themselves? Why? What would be the point?

And what exactly are they going to stock this NYC store with? Since they sell basically everything, I suppose they have quite the wide variety of choices... :lol:

Apparently, their Kindles. My guess is that the store will be used mostly for promotional purposes, as evidenced by the location, across from the Empire State Building, a high traffic tourist and business area.

I doubt anyone who lives in the city will go there. I see no reason to do so.

[badcompany]

I do have a solid idea where silver's absolute bottom is----->$15, so say most major silver mining companies in the Silver State of Nevada....the "true" experts and also some of my best friends for over 25 years.

Still sticking with that call, RR?

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/D762405C-42ED-44D3-8EC4-71B41F3253B6_zpsnmzowawl.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/D762405C-42ED-44D3-8EC4-71B41F3253B6_zpsnmzowawl.png.html)

[ReplayRandall]

Still sticking with that call, RR?

<a href="http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/D762405C-42ED-44D3-8EC4-71B41F3253B6_zpsnmzowawl.png.html" target="_blank">http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/D762405C-42ED-44D3-8EC4-71B41F3253B6_zpsnmzowawl.png

Believe it or not BC, I'm sticking to physical silver not breaching $15, even though I'm right at the brink. However, I hope you crush SLV I-shares and profit handsomely.......

[lamboguy]

there are a ton of gaps on that chart, if silver does bottom, it could start filling those gaps real fast.

[Tape Reader]

there are a ton of gaps on that chart, if silver does bottom, it could start filling those gaps real fast.

Cool technical stuff lamboguy. Runaway gaps or exhaustion gaps? May be too late in the move for runaway gaps. We’ll see.

[badcompany]

there are a ton of gaps on that chart, if silver does bottom, it could start filling those gaps real fast.

Those gaps took place between the bells AFTER the markets closed.

That's how Silver has been trading. That why if my trade gets dangerously close to my sell/ buy to cover point during the day, I just pull the trigger and end it. Otherwise, I risk the stock opening on a gap and eating up a big chunk of profit.

[davew]

Still sticking with that call, RR?

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/D762405C-42ED-44D3-8EC4-71B41F3253B6_zpsnmzowawl.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/D762405C-42ED-44D3-8EC4-71B41F3253B6_zpsnmzowawl.png.html)


your silver ishares chart looks different than kitco's

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

[lamboguy]

there looked like there was some juice behind this gold move today, the silver didn't have the same kind of interest.

on November 30 the Swiss referendum gets voted on to force the government to back 20% of the currency with gold. that would take about 1500 tons of gold, if that gets passed you might see some science fiction moves in the metal's markets. couple that with a newly elected republican congress and you can see some crazy numbers out there. if the Swiss referendum gets shot down, i will look for gold to fall apart some more to maybe under $1000.

[badcompany]

your silver ishares chart looks different than kitco's

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

That chart is the ETF price. Kitco is the spot price which is usually a few percent higher.

[badcompany]

Why is it when the stock market drops 40%, it's a crash, but when Gold does the same, as is the case now, it's just a correction in a cyclical Bull Market?

[lamboguy]

Why is it when the stock market drops 40%, it's a crash, but when Gold does the same, as is the case now, it's just a correction in a cyclical Bull Market?
vs. the dollar you are 100% right, vs. other currency's is not that clear. the metal markets are very tricky to trade, all technical's work until they don't. so far this 2 day move could still be a bear trap. against the us $ you are going to need a print of $1380 or better to be out of its bear market. that is going to be roughly what the 200 week average is going to look like in about a month. gold still has $200 more to travel to get there. i am pretty sure that the Swiss referendum could move it there in a heartbeat if it looks like its going to pass.

when you showed us the gaps in the silver ETF, i can see how easy it would be to get that sucker cranking. that looks like one dangerous looking chart to my eyes.

[ReplayRandall]

Those gaps took place between the bells AFTER the markets closed.

That's how Silver has been trading. That why if my trade gets dangerously close to my sell/ buy to cover point during the day, I just pull the trigger and end it. Otherwise, I risk the stock opening on a gap and eating up a big chunk of profit.

BC, quick question for you. How much physical gold/silver do you have in your actual possession per your percentage of overall investments in metals?

[badcompany]

BC, quick question for you. How much physical gold/silver do you have in your actual possession per your percentage of overall investments in metals?

0%

I have no investment in precious metals.

If the apocalypse comes, I'm screwed ;)

[_______]

0%

I have no investment in precious metals.

If the apocalypse comes, I'm screwed ;)

I'm still unclear what the appeal of physical commodities are for the end of civilization.

[badcompany]

I'm still unclear what the appeal of physical commodities are for the end of civilization.

Apparently, in a Mad Max scenario, where governments and their fiat currencies will have collapsed, the barter system of trade will dominate, and Gold will once again become the currency of choice.

All kidding aside, I believe the world would be better off on a pure Gold Standard, as this would put "Golden Handcuffs" on the political class.

I just don't see this happening as no major economic power is on the Gold standard, nor has plans or intentions of getting on it.

[ReplayRandall]

I'm still unclear what the appeal of physical commodities are for the end of civilization.

So Don, does your post infer that you have no physical commodities in your possession?

[barn32]

I'm still unclear what the appeal of physical commodities are for the end of civilization.Gold tastes good with salt and pepper.

[ReplayRandall]

Gold tastes good with salt and pepper.

If you have no gold/silver, how will you buy/barter for salt and pepper, or anything for that matter..........:D

[badcompany]

This man doesn't accept fiat currencies, only gold and black gold.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-POFau3FToO4/UbllIo0xnsI/AAAAAAAACtM/1sGSuhdwAZM/s1600/The+Road+Warrior_4.JPG

[ReplayRandall]

:lol: This man doesn't accept fiat currencies, only gold and black gold.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-POFau3FToO4/UbllIo0xnsI/AAAAAAAACtM/1sGSuhdwAZM/s1600/The+Road+Warrior_4.JPG


Who gave you that picture of me??........:lol: :lol:

[_______]

If you have no gold/silver, how will you buy/barter for salt and pepper, or anything for that matter..........:D


Why would someone with something of value barter it away for gold if currencies have collapsed?

How would the gold/bread exchange rate be determined?

You infer correctly.

[ReplayRandall]

Why would someone with something of value barter it away for gold if currencies have collapsed?

How would the gold/bread exchange rate be determined?

You infer correctly.


I get the feeling you're not an historian; if you were, you would know that every major world currency in last 2000 years was based with gold/silver coinage, eventually switched to fiat paper, which inevitably led to that currencies collapse. But you already knew that, didn't you? Here's the deal Don, post something that will either amaze, astound or astonish me........otherwise, your wasting BOTH of our time...........

[_______]

I get the feeling you're not an historian; if you were, you would know that every major world currency in last 2000 years was based with gold/silver coinage, eventually switched to fiat paper, which inevitably led to that currencies collapse. But you already knew that, didn't you? Here's the deal Don, post something that will either amaze, astound or astonish me........otherwise, your wasting BOTH of our time...........

Apologies if I offended. I understand many people believe physical commodities are a hedge against financial collapse. A lot of mainstream financial advisors recommend 3-4% of a portfolio be dedicated to commodities for diversity.

I personally see opportunity cost outweighing any potential advantages so I don't hold any. Gold, by itself, has the same value as any fiat currency. So long as people believe one has value, then it does. When they stop believing, the value disappears. Placing an intrinsic value on gold is the same psychological sleight of hand that places an intrinsic value on any currency.

[ReplayRandall]

Apologies if I offended. I understand many people believe physical commodities are a hedge against financial collapse. A lot of mainstream financial advisors recommend 3-4% of a portfolio be dedicated to commodities for diversity.

I personally see opportunity cost outweighing any potential advantages so I don't hold any. Gold, by itself, has the same value as any fiat currency. So long as people believe one has value, then it does. When they stop believing, the value disappears. Placing an intrinsic value on gold is the same psychological sleight of hand that places an intrinsic value on any currency.

Thank you for your response; it's all good. I embrace differing viewpoints as long as they're substantiated with facts of an historical nature. Therefore, I will close with this comment, " Gold has Eternal value, now and forever, no matter what mankind thinks or does to deny it.".........BTW, start watching SDR fluxes for the next month, there might be a few surprises.

[ReplayRandall]

Were the Egyptians, the Greeks, the Romans, The Spaniards, The California Gold Rush Prospectors and the Nation who built Fort Knox, all wrong about the value of Gold?........just a thought......

[_______]

RR-

They weren't wrong. People have valued gold for millennia. I'm sure that will continue.

Hard assets are a hedge against inflation. I don't see that as a near term threat. I own a home and that's hedge enough for me.

I know a lot of people ask what a currency is really worth when it's backed by nothing more than a promise. The answer is that it's worth what people believe it's worth.

Gold has a longer history of belief but it's perceived value is no more real than any fiat currency. There are pluses and minuses to having a gold standard. But giving money "real value" isn't one of the pluses. Backing currency with gold is backing an illusion with a mirage.

[badcompany]

Ironically, both of you are right, but the question is then what to do from an investment standpoint.

Now, we're all bettors, here. If I had to bet which will be around longer, gold or the dollar, I'd go with gold.

That said, both are almost certainly gonna be around longer than I am, and as it currently stands now, the dollar is money and gold is a commodity.

So, I'm not gonna go buy gold on the possibility that the dollar might collapse sometime in the future, when I can invest the same money in the stock market which has consistently outperformed gold.

My allocation:

95% Equities
5% Cash
0% Bonds (Bonds are for old people)
0% Gold

[lamboguy]

Ironically, both of you are right, but the question is then what to do from an investment standpoint.

Now, we're all bettors, here. If I had to bet which will be around longer, gold or the dollar, I'd go with gold.

That said, both are almost certainly gonna be around longer than I am, and as it currently stands now, the dollar is money and gold is a commodity.

So, I'm not gonna go buy gold on the possibility that the dollar might collapse sometime in the future, when I can invest the same money in the stock market which has consistently outperformed gold.

My allocation:

95% Equities
5% Cash
0% Bonds (Bonds are for old people)
0% Goldover the past 3 years gold became part of the carry trade. a large financial institution could short gold, take that money and buy bonds that they can leverage at 10-1 and collect the coupon which is presently 2.35% for US government 10 year paper. the problem comes in when one requests to much gold for delivery and there is not enough to fulfill that requirement. the gold that is heavily shorted will have to be covered at that point and you could see some very fast price escalation.

there is very little open pit mining going on these days in gold mines throughout the world. to get to whatever is left is very expensive. today it cost's an average of $1150 per ounce to dig gold up.

unless the chinese, indian's or russians start flooding the market with gold,one day you will see much higher prices for this.

this is only fundamental, as of now technical's do show a much different picture. you can make a very good case for gold to lose $1000 price point. to make a bullish case for gold you will need a print of $1380 per ounce now.

[ReplayRandall]

Ironically, both of you are right, but the question is then what to do from an investment standpoint.

Now, we're all bettors, here. If I had to bet which will be around longer, gold or the dollar, I'd go with gold.

That said, both are almost certainly gonna be around longer than I am, and as it currently stands now, the dollar is money and gold is a commodity.

So, I'm not gonna go buy gold on the possibility that the dollar might collapse sometime in the future, when I can invest the same money in the stock market which has consistently outperformed gold.

My allocation:

95% Equities
5% Cash
0% Bonds (Bonds are for old people)
0% Gold

Looks like you and Nik Wallenda have a lot in common, especially the "no safety net" philosophy........Be careful up there BC.

[badcompany]

Looks like you and Nik Wallenda have a lot in common, especially the "no safety net" philosophy........Be careful up there BC.

I do have a safety net in the form of an arbitrary sell point well below the current market, an eject button, if you will.

You see, problem with the stock market is that it has the tendency to crash from time to time. So, to protect yourself, you have to have insurance. That's what the arbitrary sell point provides.

Of course, insurance usually costs money and this case is no exception. There will come a time when the market looks like it's gonna crash but doesn't, and in that case your selling wasn't necessary and you have to buy back at higher prices. The difference between the sell price and the repurchase price is the cost of the crash insurance.

[ReplayRandall]

I do have a safety net in the form of an arbitrary sell point well below the current market, an eject button, if you will.

You see, problem with the stock market is that it has the tendency to crash from time to time. So, to protect yourself, you have to have insurance. That's what the arbitrary sell point provides.

Of course, insurance usually costs money and this case is no exception. There will come a time when the market looks like it's gonna crash but doesn't, and in that case your selling wasn't necessary and you have to buy back at higher prices. The difference between the sell price and the repurchase price is the cost of the crash insurance.

Thanks for pointing out your invisible net........still need my "glasses" to see though.....( Your "Bonds are for old people" comment)

[badcompany]

Thanks for pointing out your invisible net........still need my "glasses" to see though.....( Your "Bonds are for old people" comment)

Ironically, the guy from whom I lifted that line is the late Walter Shloss, one of Warren Buffet's "Superinvestors." He was like 92 when he said it.

[_______]

Ironically, both of you are right, but the question is then what to do from an investment standpoint.

Now, we're all bettors, here. If I had to bet which will be around longer, gold or the dollar, I'd go with gold.

That said, both are almost certainly gonna be around longer than I am, and as it currently stands now, the dollar is money and gold is a commodity.

So, I'm not gonna go buy gold on the possibility that the dollar might collapse sometime in the future, when I can invest the same money in the stock market which has consistently outperformed gold.

My allocation:

95% Equities
5% Cash
0% Bonds (Bonds are for old people)
0% Gold


My allocation of investable money:

58% Equities
42% Bonds.

I guess I'm old lol.

I never even thought about bonds until I got within a few months of retirement. I felt like I had the discipline to go through market cycles. I retired last year and once I knew I was going to be living off my own savings, I decided to diversify.

Emotionally, I don't look at this and see the income I will someday get from the bond funds. I look at it and see the additional capital appreciation I would have had if I had stayed 100% in equities since last October.

Stay young, BC...

[badcompany]

My allocation of investable money:

58% Equities
42% Bonds.

I guess I'm old lol.

I never even thought about bonds until I got within a few months of retirement. I felt like I had the discipline to go through market cycles. I retired last year and once I knew I was going to be living off my own savings, I decided to diversify.

Emotionally, I don't look at this and see the income I will someday get from the bond funds. I look at it and see the additional capital appreciation I would have had if I had stayed 100% in equities since last October.

Stay young, BC...

Can't say I blame you. Market volatility is tough to deal with when you're at retirement age.

That said, I believe many Financial Advisors use Bond Funds as a way to protect their reputations. They can claim they were playing it safe if their clients lose money in bonds.

They also do this by over committing their clients in dividend paying stocks. If the stocks goes down, they can point to the supposed dividend income stream.

Sorry folks, if you buy a $100 stock that pays a $3 dividend, and a year later the stock is at $90, you're still $7 a share poorer, and you've triggered a tax event.

[_______]

Can't say I blame you. Market volatility is tough to deal with when you're at retirement age.

That said, I believe many Financial Advisors use Bond Funds as a way to protect their reputations. They can claim they were playing it safe if their clients lose money in bonds.

They also do this by over committing their clients in dividend paying stocks. If the stocks goes down, they can point to the supposed dividend income stream.

Sorry folks, if you buy a $100 stock that pays a $3 dividend, and a year later the stock is at $90, you're still $7 a share poorer, and you've triggered a tax event.

It's a different world once you aren't putting money into the market on a regular basis.

I would not have been able to retire when I did if I hadn't remained committed to equities through my working years. In 2008 I thought I might be 10 years away from being able to afford retirement.

Things worked out. It's been tough to change gears since I left work but you learn to stop looking at 1 year returns and more at generating an income for when you need it.

You shouldn't care about dividends or income or any kind. I have to.

[pandy]

My allocation of investable money:

58% Equities
42% Bonds.

I guess I'm old lol.

I never even thought about bonds until I got within a few months of retirement. I felt like I had the discipline to go through market cycles. I retired last year and once I knew I was going to be living off my own savings, I decided to diversify.

Emotionally, I don't look at this and see the income I will someday get from the bond funds. I look at it and see the additional capital appreciation I would have had if I had stayed 100% in equities since last October.

Stay young, BC...

My father was a stock broker for over 30 years. When his customers retired, he recommended they get out of stocks, unless they had so much money that they could afford to risk some.

[badcompany]

My father was a stock broker for over 30 years. When his customers retired, he recommended they get out of stocks, unless they had so much money that they could afford to risk some.

This is good advice for most people simply because most people who own stocks have no interest in studying the stock market.

In the mail room of my building we have a bin where people throw their junk mail. I regularly see Mutual Fund Reports in the bin, unopened. I often pull the reports out and look at them, myself.

In other words, I have more interest in what the fund is doing than the person who actually has money in it.

[classhandicapper]

I added a little gold/silver to my portfolio today (CEF).

This is not a market call. In fact, if I had to bet, I'd say it's more likely it will be lower during the next couple of years. I'm making a long term bet that the US will resume QE at some point when the economy weakens. When it does, the dollar will fall and gold/silver will rise sharply. For now, the rest of the world is printing way more money than the US. So gold could weaken further if the dollar continues to strengthen (and I'll buy more).

Given the alternatives for that money (fully priced stocks or toilet paper cash earning a negative real rate of return), I'd rather have gold at anything less than $1200.

[badcompany]

The recent performance of Gold compared to that of stocks leaves me wholly uninspired to add any of the former to my portfolio.

That stocks are fully priced is an opinion. This chart is a fact:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/E596BC53-133B-4851-8E6C-3D581A1BA771_zpstupqfv9k.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/E596BC53-133B-4851-8E6C-3D581A1BA771_zpstupqfv9k.png.html)

[classhandicapper]

The recent performance of Gold compared to that of stocks leaves me wholly uninspired to add any of the former to my portfolio.

That stocks are fully priced is an opinion. This chart is a fact:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/E596BC53-133B-4851-8E6C-3D581A1BA771_zpstupqfv9k.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/E596BC53-133B-4851-8E6C-3D581A1BA771_zpstupqfv9k.png.html)

I consider charts to be voodoo given that I think in terms of 5-10 year intervals instead of 5-10 day intervals. I buy value and go to sleep. ;)

[bks]

The recent performance of Gold compared to that of stocks leaves me wholly uninspired to add any of the former to my portfolio.

That stocks are fully priced is an opinion. This chart is a fact:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/E596BC53-133B-4851-8E6C-3D581A1BA771_zpstupqfv9k.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/E596BC53-133B-4851-8E6C-3D581A1BA771_zpstupqfv9k.png.html)

So are these charts "facts."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-11/just-15-wtf-charts

Pay particular attention to the one labeled "FED Balance Sheet."

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/11/20141110_WTF12.jpg

Let's be honest, bc: stocks aren't "fully priced." They're criminally overpriced, juiced with Fed money.

Stock prices are up b/c the Fed has guaranteed a market for crap, and in the process picked winners and losers in the largest transfer of wealth in US history. I hold equities too, btw, but I don't have any illusions as to why they're up. Neither should you.

[badcompany]

So are these charts "facts."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-11/just-15-wtf-charts

Pay particular attention to the one labeled "FED Balance Sheet."

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/11/20141110_WTF12.jpg

Let's be honest, bc: stocks aren't "fully priced." They're criminally overpriced, juiced with Fed money.

Stock prices are up b/c the Fed has guaranteed a market for crap, and in the process picked winners and losers in the largest transfer of wealth in US history. I hold equities too, btw, but I don't have any illusions as to why they're up. Neither should you.

I don't concern myself with the "why." I have no control over what the financial establishment does. Neither do you.

[ReplayRandall]

Still sticking with that call, RR?

<a href="http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/D762405C-42ED-44D3-8EC4-71B41F3253B6_zpsnmzowawl.png.html" target="_blank">http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/D762405C-42ED-44D3-8EC4-71B41F3253B6_zpsnmzowawl.png


My call stood its ground, now rising into safe territory. BC, at what point did you exit Silver I-shares?

[Tape Reader]

This week’s action in gold and precious metal stocks looks like a possible “island reversal.” Heavy volume, little head way, accompanied by a breakaway gap (needs) to the upside. Anyone else?

[lamboguy]

This week’s action in gold and precious metal stocks looks like a possible “island reversal.” Heavy volume, little head way, accompanied by a breakaway gap (needs) to the upside. Anyone else?

it looked good this week, but i am sticking to $1380 to be bullish. today the dollar refused 89, so that is probably why the gold looked so strong, the other good thing today was that the contract closed about $1180, maybe some resistance around $1245

[badcompany]

My call stood its ground, now rising into safe territory. BC, at what point did you exit Silver I-shares?


Got taken out a week ago, with a small profit. My SPY trade got stopped out, too. That one was sweet, almost 10% in 3 weeks.



http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/2f1afcac6f7ecfc062097e03b47057b7_zps88193d85.jpg

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/46675056eb1bc35881f0d1f31143bb37_zps5946eb34.jpg

IMO, stilll way too early to tell if the Silver is for real, or yet another short squeeze.

If you do jump the long side, good luck. :ThmbUp:

[badcompany]

Looks like more pain for the Gold bugs:

Swiss Say ‘No’ to Measure Forcing SNB to Acquire More Gold
By Catherine Bosley
November 30, 2014 12:18 PM EST

Swiss voters rejected a referendum requiring their central bank to hold a portion of its assets in gold, a measure its President Thomas Jordan termed an “invitation to speculators” that could have hamstrung the economy.

The “Save Our Swiss Gold” proposal stipulating the Swiss National Bank hold at least 20 percent of its 520-billion-franc ($540 billion) balance sheet in gold and never sell any bullion was voted down by 77 percent to 23 percent, the government said. Polls had forecast the initiative’s rejection. Two other initiatives on tax privileges for foreign millionaires and immigration limits also were rejected.

SNB policy makers warned repeatedly that the measure, which also required the 30 percent of central bank gold stored in Canada and the U.K. to be repatriated, would have made it harder to keep prices stable and shield the central bank’s cap on the franc of 1.20 per euro. That minimum exchange rate was set three years ago, with the SNB pledging to buy foreign currency in unlimited amounts to defend it.

“The key word is relief, but it’s not a reason to crack the champagne corks yet,” said Janwillem Acket, chief economist at Julius Baer Group Ltd. in Zurich. Due to the rejection, “the SNB has more options and fewer constraints on monetary policy,” he said.

The SNB said in a statement it was “pleased to hear of the outcome.”

[so.cal.fan]

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/30/swiss-reject-the-gold-immigration-referendums/



Very interesting take here......

[badcompany]

Now, that's not pretty!

[PaceAdvantage]

Downright ugly for gold this month...rate hikes right around the corner...

[classhandicapper]

I bought some more CEF. Have to get it now when everyone thinks there's going to be a rate hike and the economy is strong. When the economy starts to weaken and there is talk of another recession and more QE (which seems inevitable eventually), it will already be too late to buy gold. It's already selling for less than the cost of mining it at a lot of mines.

[_______]

Commodities overall seem to be a difficult space. As an investor in the energy sector, I understand bottom fishing.

But I would question a decision to jump into something no one needs in a possibly deflationary era.

We might both be screwed. But I would rather be invested in something people actually need.

I think the economy will probably be okay to pretty good in the short term. But I'll be looking to exit my overweight in the sector if that's true. And if things go seriously south, I'd still want to be holding a refiner or pipeline company than what no one actually needs.

[Robert Goren]

I bought some more CEF. Have to get it now when everyone thinks there's going to be a rate hike and the economy is strong. When the economy starts to weaken and there is talk of another recession and more QE (which seems inevitable eventually), it will already be too late to buy gold. It's already selling for less than the cost of mining it at a lot of mines. For your sake, I hope you are correct, But I see a recession and more QE as something that further drop the price of Gold and other commodities. If we have a recession and I think we will( the rest of the world is in one, we can't avoid it forever) , I see Gold as going under $800. I see oil under $25. Everybody banked on China as driver of the economy and it is clear now, things are amiss over there in a big way. Whether we like it or not, We are in a global economy and we can not fix its ills. The best we can do is put some Band-Aids on parts of ours.

[lamboguy]

For your sake, I hope you are correct, But I see a recession and more QE as something that further drop the price of Gold and other commodities. If we have a recession and I think we will( the rest of the world is in one, we can't avoid it forever) , I see Gold as going under $800. I see oil under $25. Everybody banked on China as driver of the economy and it is clear now, things are amiss over there in a big way. Whether we like it or not, We are in a global economy and we can not fix its ills. The best we can do is put some Band-Aids on parts of ours.
if you happen to be right about the world recession, gold will go to about $8000 per ounce and probably more.

[reckless]

Those investors and traders who view gold as a commodity may see the metal reach $800 as Robert Goren suggests.

But, if those investors and traders view gold as a currency, then gold could reach $8,000 as lamboguy suggests.

[lamboguy]

forget what i say or think, i just saw a 13f filing and Stanley Drukenmiller went in for 2.8 million shares of GLD.

this is the first time uncle Stan has made a move on gold, for those that don't know him, he was partner's with George Soros when they took the English pound apart

[ReplayRandall]

forget what i say or think, i just saw a 13f filing and Stanley Drukenmiller went in for 2.8 million shares of GLD.

this is the first time uncle Stan has made a move on gold, for those that don't know him, he was partner's with George Soros when they took the English pound apart

He's taking a big swing at other tempting offerings as well:

http://www.businessinsider.com/druckenmiller-buys-gld-shares-2015-8

[Tape Reader]

I am so sick of the frigging idiots on TV concluding their gold report with: “You can’t buy a loaf of bread with gold”.

Let’s hear it: Is there any business person out there that WOULDN’T sell a loaf of bread for some gold?

[PaceAdvantage]

Gold bugs have been getting creamed lately...nobody should be predicting $8000 gold... :lol:

[lamboguy]

there looked like there was some juice behind this gold move today, the silver didn't have the same kind of interest.

on November 30 the Swiss referendum gets voted on to force the government to back 20% of the currency with gold. that would take about 1500 tons of gold, if that gets passed you might see some science fiction moves in the metal's markets. couple that with a newly elected republican congress and you can see some crazy numbers out there. if the Swiss referendum gets shot down, i will look for gold to fall apart some more to maybe under $1000.i decided to reopen this thread with gold at $1050 per ounce and in a 5 year bear market.

if you use the 1998 number of gold $250 and the high of gold $1950, it shows that gold has already surpassed a 50% retracement, which could mean it is now heading to about $950. that would flat out mean that there would be an immediate trend reversal at that point.

equity's that retrace the full 61% are usually not that strong.i don't think that gold is that weak in the big view.

therefore with the cycle work that i do, which can be wrong at times, i am calling for an end to the bear market this week in gold.

you never know the fundamental reasons for anything. my wild guess would be that China will increase their IMF holdings of gold to trigger the end.

i have never seen a bear market last this long in anything. what i do know is that the longer the bear, the bigger the moves the bull make that precedes it.

[TJDave]

Let’s hear it: Is there any business person out there that WOULDN’T sell a loaf of bread for some gold?

Try it. See how far you get.

Out of curiosity, what would be the conversion rate for a 2 dollar loaf of bread?

[Tape Reader]

Try it. See how far you get.

Out of curiosity, what would be the conversion rate for a 2 dollar loaf of bread?

Par.

[_______]

Considering transaction costs to convert it to a more easily usable currency, I'd have to say I wouldn't accept gold at par.

I know retailers often have to eat transaction costs on credit cards but until gold has a larger user base, I think I'd be safe turning away that business.

[Tape Reader]

i decided to reopen this thread with gold at $1050 per ounce and in a 5 year bear market.

if you use the 1998 number of gold $250 and the high of gold $1950, it shows that gold has already surpassed a 50% retracement, which could mean it is now heading to about $950. that would flat out mean that there would be an immediate trend reversal at that point.

equity's that retrace the full 61% are usually not that strong.i don't think that gold is that weak in the big view.

therefore with the cycle work that i do, which can be wrong at times, i am calling for an end to the bear market this week in gold.

you never know the fundamental reasons for anything. my wild guess would be that China will increase their IMF holdings of gold to trigger the end.

i have never seen a bear market last this long in anything. what i do know is that the longer the bear, the bigger the moves the bull make that precedes it.

So far so good. /YG up 23.80.

[lamboguy]

So far so good. /YG up 23.80.
actually the confirmation for my call does not come in until gold reaches close to $1380.

the length of this bull market will last a very long time. i probably won't live long enough to see the end of it.

[lamboguy]

this might be the reason why gold moved last week

http://learningenglish.voanews.com/content/imf-adds-chinas-yuan-to-worlds-top-currencies/3088354.html

[PICSIX]

Took a small position in GDX @ 14.00 yesterday with a tight stop @ 13.50.

[forced89]

I've been buying 1/10 oz gold and 1 oz silver coins monthly for years now to protect my Pension from inflation. So far I am under water on the coins but my Pension has pretty much maintained its buying power. I will keep buying gold until the day I die.

[PICSIX]

Nice pop in gold today

[Valuist]

Gold closed at its highest point in three months.

Lamboguy's post # 183 looking prescient.

[lamboguy]

just a couple of points here, it does look like the bottom is in for gold, but the bullish case has yet to arrive. i would say the 2 key numbers will be $1260 and $1380. somewhere between those numbers the 200 week moving average should come into play. the real good thing that has happened to gold this year is the fact that the financials are now tanking. historically gold often moves opposite of those.

if indeed this is a new bull market in gold, i would not be a seller or hedger in it until gold reaches between $5500-$6000 in it. that's a pretty good target.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I hope you have a hedge number going the other way with gold, and a point at which the price decline becomes so painful you unload it.

Gold may go to $8000, but I think it's more likely to go to $400 first. Why? Because hyperinflation is possible when the paper currency is actually floating through the system - but, what the Fed has done so far, with their electronic helicopter drop, is make numbers that can disappear very quickly in an economic sudden stop.

When the "assets" have nothing backing them, not even a flimsy piece of paper representing them, I don't see how hyperinflation gets going.

OTH, if in desperation the Fed/.Gov begins to float money directly to the end users (i.e., tax refunds for the last three years, everybody gets a $50,000 booster check, etc., ) then you could see gold go to $25,000 per ounce in a single day.

If we get to that point, it may truly be close to Mad Max and it won't matter what you're invested in - the challenge will be to stay alive. I see a deflationary event much easier for the GOV to control, but I could be wrong.....

[so.cal.fan]

You could very well be right.
Seems there will eventually be a reset.
Electronic money world wide?
If the try to go to a gold standard? Who determines what the price will be?
If the United States sets it at 10,000 am ounce.
What if China, Russia, Europe or all of them say , wait a minuet!
We're not going for that price.
What will happen?

[davew]

I do not see how you can fix the price of any commodity

If it is too high, the market will become flooded with melting and new exploration. If it is too low, it will not be attainable by the companies that consume it (jewelry, circuit boards,...)

[highnote]

I've been buying Hecla Mining (HL) for the past few weeks at prices from $1.77 to $2.00 per share. I figured it was undervalued. It hit a recent low of $1.49 per share and is up to around $2.12. That's over a 33% return in just a couple of weeks -- if you were smart enough to buy at the bottom. I wasn't, but still got in at a good price -- I hope.

HL has been in business for over 100 years so I don't think it will go out of business.

It seems like a good way to diversify and have a portion of a portfolio in precious metals and make a decent return.

[highnote]

HL closed at $2.24 today up over 2%. Down stocks outnumber up stocks about 4 to 1. So it is nice to have a position in a stock that gained today.

[lamboguy]

i haven't played HL in 10 years now. it does look good though, it probably will go above $9 on this metal's run. Hecla has volume off the top from 5 years ago. that volume usually acts as a magnet to get the price up there. it should make it up there within 2 years.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I do not see how you can fix the price of any commodity

If it is too high, the market will become flooded with melting and new exploration. If it is too low, it will not be attainable by the companies that consume it (jewelry, circuit boards,...)

Not only that, but how can historical pricing mean anything? We look at the price of gold in terms of $US dollars, yet the U.S., Chinese and basically world economy is undergoing changes never seen before - will the dollar blow up, or will the dollar be the last fiat currency standing?

Something tells me that all this button pushing, err, money printing does not end well....

[lamboguy]

i have always said this that no one man or entity is bigger than the markets. after watching the Hunt brothers corner the silver market for 3 years, i learned that statement. certainly there are large people or groups that can have a short term effect on controlling things, but when they lose their grips, the markets takeoff. this might be the case in the metals markets now, but i have yet to confirm it with the work that i do. odds do favor a major rise in precious metals real soon though.

[forced89]

We look at the price of gold in terms of $US dollars....

Good point. Gold is way higher in terms of many currencies. It is cheap in terms of the strong US Dollar. I have been buying a 1 oz American Eagle every month for the last year or so. Will I be rewarded for this? Yes, the question is when!

[Tape Reader]

Hi All,

Can anyone give their opinion on the most leveraged way to play gold? Would appreciate any/all info. (Active options a real plus!)

Sincerely,

Tape Reader

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Good point. Gold is way higher in terms of many currencies. It is cheap in terms of the strong US Dollar. I have been buying a 1 oz American Eagle every month for the last year or so. Will I be rewarded for this? Yes, the question is when!

Well, if your dollar-cost averaging is about $1150 an ounce, I would say that you were rewarded in the last two days...... :)

[lamboguy]

what the government can do to undercut gold

1. declare a special tax on gold

2. declaring all gold futures settled in cash

3. decreasing collateral percent bank can use it as

any one of these methods will stop gold in its tracks right now. however on the other side of this economic mess will come hyper inflation. when that does occur none of these things will matter and all people all over the world will want is gold.

gold has always been the enemy of banks and governments. so far gold has punched the bankers in the face, but the governments haven't started in yet with its tricks. my guess is that the United States government will not allow gold to go to much further than $2000 per ounce before it steps in on this run.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

what the government can do to undercut gold

1. declare a special tax on gold

2. declaring all gold futures settled in cash

3. decreasing collateral percent bank can use it as

any one of these methods will stop gold in its tracks right now. however on the other side of this economic mess will come hyper inflation. when that does occur none of these things will matter and all people all over the world will want is gold.

gold has always been the enemy of banks and governments. so far gold has punched the bankers in the face, but the governments haven't started in yet with its tricks. my guess is that the United States government will not allow gold to go to much further than $2000 per ounce before it steps in on this run.

I can't argue with anyone who wants to have gold as part of their portfolio, but the risks you list are real - as well as outlawing private (bulk) ownership of gold like FDR did:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

I'm not as concerned about "government tricks" when it comes to gold - but I am keeping a close eye on the ongoing war on cash....

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Hi All,

Can anyone give their opinion on the most leveraged way to play gold? Would appreciate any/all info. (Active options a real plus!)

Sincerely,

Tape Reader

Well, the obvious answer is futures, or options on futures.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/?utm_source=trading_flyout&utm_medium=metals&utm_campaign=flyout

If you'd bought one contract of /GC on Wednesday at $1195, and sell it now at $1238, you'd cash out for a tidy profit of $4300. Is 100-1 enough leverage for you? :)

I don't follow gold closely enough to trade over long periods of time, and since it's the darling of those trying to offset geopolitical as well as economic risk, it's a hard read on "fundamentals". But I do trade /GC now and then as well as a few other commodities, if the pattern and signals are there - but normally don't hold the position for more than a few hours, and often only for a few minutes when it moves against me.

[Tape Reader]

Well, the obvious answer is futures, or options on futures.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/?utm_source=trading_flyout&utm_medium=metals&utm_campaign=flyout

If you'd bought one contract of /GC on Wednesday at $1195, and sell it now at $1238, you'd cash out for a tidy profit of $4300. Is 100-1 enough leverage for you? :)

I don't follow gold closely enough to trade over long periods of time, and since it's the darling of those trying to offset geopolitical as well as economic risk, it's a hard read on "fundamentals". But I do trade /GC now and then as well as a few other commodities, if the pattern and signals are there - but normally don't hold the position for more than a few hours, and often only for a few minutes when it moves against me.

Thank you very much. That’s cool, 100-1. Not even the tote boards that I watch go past 99-1.

[lamboguy]

at the close of the Comex yesterday they upped the margin requirements for the gold contract from $4100 to $4600. i have no idea how much of an effect that will have on gold in the short run this time. margin requirements is how the government cleaned out the Hunt brothers when they tried to corner the silver market over 35 years ago now.

[davew]

Dan Shak who is sometimes seen in high buy-in poker tournaments ran an investment fund that played gold futures. He did very well with it until it didn't. His strategy involved spreads between delivery months, which he continuously rolled over. At one time his group had over 10% of open contracts on COMEX gold. Now he is barred from trading gold.


Tape Reader, I am not sure why you would be interested in the most leveraged way to buy gold- small swings make can make very big gains and LOSSES (not limited by your original 'investment')

[lamboguy]

Dan Shak who is sometimes seen in high buy-in poker tournaments ran an investment fund that played gold futures. He did very well with it until it didn't. His strategy involved spreads between delivery months, which he continuously rolled over. At one time his group had over 10% of open contracts on COMEX gold. Now he is barred from trading gold.


Tape Reader, I am not sure why you would be interested in the most leveraged way to buy gold- small swings make can make very big gains and LOSSES (not limited by your original 'investment')
just curious, did they bar him because he won?

[davew]

just curious, did they bar him because he won?

I can't remember, I think it was trading limits. Here is a ruling for manipulating WTI.

http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6781-13

[lamboguy]

I can't remember, I think it was trading limits. Here is a ruling for manipulating WTI.

http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6781-13money certainly brings out the best in people!!!!!

[Hoofless_Wonder]

at the close of the Comex yesterday they upped the margin requirements for the gold contract from $4100 to $4600. i have no idea how much of an effect that will have on gold in the short run this time. margin requirements is how the government cleaned out the Hunt brothers when they tried to corner the silver market over 35 years ago now.

Well, gold is down about $53 from the recent peak on 2/11 at $1264 (futures, /GC), so maybe the increase in margin requirements resulted in some folks having to sell their positions.

But, we see margin requirements jump when volatility picks up for other commodities and stocks, and the rocket launch in the first half of February was pretty amazing.

I knew the Hunt brothers tried to corner the Silver market, but I didn't know it was Uncle Sam who applied the rule change that hosed them - big time. Interesting. After being banned from trading commodities, I guess after that Nelson Bunker Hunt focused more on that safer investment holding - race horses. ;)

[lamboguy]

Well, gold is down about $53 from the recent peak on 2/11 at $1264 (futures, /GC), so maybe the increase in margin requirements resulted in some folks having to sell their positions.

But, we see margin requirements jump when volatility picks up for other commodities and stocks, and the rocket launch in the first half of February was pretty amazing.

I knew the Hunt brothers tried to corner the Silver market, but I didn't know it was Uncle Sam who applied the rule change that hosed them - big time. Interesting. After being banned from trading commodities, I guess after that Nelson Bunker Hunt focused more on that safer investment holding - race horses. ;)this time around the US government is not as powerful. the chinese want their citizens to own gold and they have their own exchange also. it will be very interesting how this is going to shake out now.

[so.cal.fan]

I think gold will swing up and down depending on what's going on in the world. When people go for gold it is when they have lost confidence in government.
I like gold, but I think the gold bugs are way off when they always say the markets being manipulated...but only say that when gold goes down.When it goes up its always a rally...with the gold promoters making wild speculations.
This is what it seems to me.

[lamboguy]

today gold filled the gap that it had since february 10. also of note, from a 13f filing today, Fidelity bought 1% of the GLD. from past experience they usually buy 6% of an equity. they also added 167,000 shares of Randgold Resources.

back in 1999 they were the only and the first one to buy into gold. they purchased Goldcorp at the time.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I may be totally off-base, but I keep reading about Western entities selling gold, and China and India buying it.

So if the West is selling gold, doesn't that mean that it won't be a very solid investment - at least in the West? Or does that mean that they're selling some of their last tangible assets?

Again, with the Central Banks of the world taking us all to a place that we've never been, does anyone know how this ends?

[lamboguy]

I may be totally off-base, but I keep reading about Western entities selling gold, and China and India buying it.

So if the West is selling gold, doesn't that mean that it won't be a very solid investment - at least in the West? Or does that mean that they're selling some of their last tangible assets?

Again, with the Central Banks of the world taking us all to a place that we've never been, does anyone know how this ends?in my opinion gold is not an investment or a gambling tool, it is an insurance policy that you hope you never need.

[forced89]

in my opinion gold is not an investment or a gambling tool, it is an insurance policy that you hope you never need.

Well Said!

[Hoofless_Wonder]

in my opinion gold is not an investment or a gambling tool, it is an insurance policy that you hope you never need.

I agree and understand that historically gold has been used as an asset to offset geopolitical risk. But let's step through the scenario of using gold as an insurance policy.

So if the U.S. economy implodes and we go "Mad Max" to some degree, how does gold become useful? In the past, it made sense that to enough people, gold would remain as a form of "money" and could be used for barter. It made sense that the government would potentially allow gold to be used for purchasing other assets, as it was used to back fiat currency. But those days are long gone. With the war on cash, the rollout of digitial currencies, and the very small percentage of people/banks/governments' wealth in gold, I am perplexed where it fits in. Which of course has nothing to do with it's real value.

If 10 years from now I show up at the local Farmer's Market looking for food, clothing, seeds, tools, etc., wouldn't I be better off bringing my stash of ammo or old computer parts for trade? Or, better yet, bringing in fresh water or oil from my secret wells?:)

[lamboguy]

the latest thing that is going around the world these days is a new thing called negative interest rates. in essence all that is happens to be another tax on your money that you have already been taxed on just to hold it with very little secure guarantee's that you can trust.

while you might say is correct in as much as trading gold in to buy the things you need, gold has a 5000 year history behind it. during that period of time its always been able to buy things. this might be the time that things change, but for now i rather own the gold than have no gold and have to rely on paper promises that can often be broken.

[so.cal.fan]

I would be afraid if a digital system comes in...it won't be legal to barter with gold. Government would confiscate it...may buy it pack from you...but no way they pay you much for it.

[forced89]

If all goes to Hell with money or money substitutes, there will always be people willing to take gold or silver coins as payment for their goods and services. When all went to Hell in Vietnam when the US pulled out those who escaped with their gold prospered. Many of the rest ended up in refugee camps.

[so.cal.fan]

That's very interesting Forced.
I didn't know that.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

If all goes to Hell with money or money substitutes, there will always be people willing to take gold or silver coins as payment for their goods and services. When all went to Hell in Vietnam when the US pulled out those who escaped with their gold prospered. Many of the rest ended up in refugee camps.

If one currency fails, the "value" of gold can be pegged to other currencies or commodities to help determine a "fair" exchange rate.

When all currencies fail, all bets are off, as the government may NOT consider gold as legal tender. The physical gold one has in pocket may be worth about as much as the paper gold in ETFs. I'm also thinking that unlike the past, the percentage of the population that possesses precious metals is far lower, which also may restrict how useful it can be to use it for payment.

I could be wrong, but if I've got a box of 9 MM ammo I'm willing to part with, it won't be for a gold bar.....

[_______]

If one currency fails, the "value" of gold can be pegged to other currencies or commodities to help determine a "fair" exchange rate.

When all currencies fail, all bets are off, as the government may NOT consider gold as legal tender. The physical gold one has in pocket may be worth about as much as the paper gold in ETFs. I'm also thinking that unlike the past, the percentage of the population that possesses precious metals is far lower, which also may restrict how useful it can be to use it for payment.

I could be wrong, but if I've got a box of 9 MM ammo I'm willing to part with, it won't be for a gold bar.....

Ammo is a good idea. I have posted before about the weird obsession with gold and the inability of it's proponents to see that it's perceived value is no different than the perceived value of fiat currencies.

The idea that the kind of collapse gold's proponents envision isn't also going to wipe out it's value is a complete fantasy.

You think global currencies are going to collapse? You better own land with access to water and a way to protect it. There will be an awful lot of people trying to find ways to eat their gold if that scenario ever plays out.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Ammo is a good idea. I have posted before about the weird obsession with gold and the inability of it's proponents to see that it's perceived value is no different than the perceived value of fiat currencies.

The idea that the kind of collapse gold's proponents envision isn't also going to wipe out it's value is a complete fantasy.

You think global currencies are going to collapse? You better own land with access to water and a way to protect it. There will be an awful lot of people trying to find ways to eat their gold if that scenario ever plays out.

I agree that a Mad Max scenario makes gold relatively worthless. I'm not sure, like anyone else, where this all goes. But all the global economies are in trouble, and likewise their fiat currencies. Perhaps the U.S. dollar will outlast some other countries, but it's not nearly as strong as the "reserve" currency of the world it once was.

What I'm trying to figure out though, is how gold plays out in a highly deflationary event that's not full Mad Max. Or what happens in .gov attempting a helicopter drop of money? It just seems odd that Western governments and banks would be unloading their reserves if their plan included gold to remain valuable.

So far this year, gold is doing well. How long will it last?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-28/gold-evolves-from-a-barbaric-relic-to-biggest-winner-of-2016

“Gold has been the biggest story of this year,” said Dan Denbow, a portfolio manager at the USAA Precious Metals & Minerals Fund in San Antonio, which oversees $600 million. “Last summer, people were calling it a barbaric relic, and nobody could care less about gold. Now, it’s slowly generating more and more buying.”

[InsideTheRaces.com]

Gold is either going down or oil is going to up. Look at a gold oil ratio chart
http://inflation.us/goldoil-ratio-breaks-30-for-first-time-in-27-years/

[lamboguy]

Gold is either going down or oil is going to up. Look at a gold oil ratio chart
http://inflation.us/goldoil-ratio-breaks-30-for-first-time-in-27-years/all you have to do is put on a hedge, go short gold and long oil and you will get it all no matter which event happens.

[davew]

all you have to do is put on a hedge, go short gold and long oil and you will get it all no matter which event happens.

If they are correlated or related to each other in any way. Can you explain the relationship to me? Contracts from an energy market and a metal market?

[InsideTheRaces.com]

all you have to do is put on a hedge, go short gold and long oil and you will get it all no matter which event happens.

Maybe, it depends on how big the move is and how fast it happens. Futures contracts can be expensive when there is lots of time involved. I tried to hedge both in August of 2008 or 2009 don't remember the year. Anyway the gold oil ratio was 7. Gold was $800 something and oil was $130 something (not confident in exact prices but close). Long story short both made their moves but I broke even.

[lamboguy]

If they are correlated or related to each other in any way. Can you explain the relationship to me? Contracts from an energy market and a metal market?i don't think they are correlated. but the poster implied that oil was cheap and gold was to expensive.

i remember at one time when gold was 20 times silver, today gold is 80 times silver.

some people like to play spreads, i don't. this is probably the beginning of a commodity bull cycle with lots of inflation coming to us soon. but that is just my opinion, but it sure looks that way now.

[_______]

i don't think they are correlated. but the poster implied that oil was cheap and gold was to expensive.

i remember at one time when gold was 20 times silver, today gold is 80 times silver.

some people like to play spreads, i don't. this is probably the beginning of a commodity bull cycle with lots of inflation coming to us soon. but that is just my opinion, but it sure looks that way now.

Inflation is usually correlated with high consumer demand and full employment. I don't see the economy doing all that badly right now but do you really think inflation is going to be an issue?

[lamboguy]

i decided to reopen this thread with gold at $1050 per ounce and in a 5 year bear market.

if you use the 1998 number of gold $250 and the high of gold $1950, it shows that gold has already surpassed a 50% retracement, which could mean it is now heading to about $950. that would flat out mean that there would be an immediate trend reversal at that point.

equity's that retrace the full 61% are usually not that strong.i don't think that gold is that weak in the big view.

therefore with the cycle work that i do, which can be wrong at times, i am calling for an end to the bear market this week in gold.

you never know the fundamental reasons for anything. my wild guess would be that China will increase their IMF holdings of gold to trigger the end.

i have never seen a bear market last this long in anything. what i do know is that the longer the bear, the bigger the moves the bull make that precedes it.this gold market has turned into a raging bull. it closed this week at $1340 the ounce and is heading towards $1440 in my opinion.

[so.cal.fan]

There is such a lack of cofidence in government and banks that all tangible assets are being bought.
Equities, real estate, antiques, art works and precious metals.

[lamboguy]

today gold and gold miners had the real first sign of strength. the charts of these things look so bad now that they all look like they have to pull back again to prove that they are all done getting punished.

i love a miner MUX,this one went from a low of .65 to close today over $4, love the CEO too.

[Valuist]

And silver is raging even more.

[lamboguy]

And silver is raging even more.getting back up to the highs will be easier for silver than for gold, there just isn't that much resistance topside on silver.

[lamboguy]

HL closed at $2.24 today up over 2%. Down stocks outnumber up stocks about 4 to 1. So it is nice to have a position in a stock that gained today.i just saw HL close above $7 today. that was a great call. it has overperformed the one i like MUX in your time frame.

congratulations on one of the very best calls i have ever seen on a time tested proven asset. and the move only looks like the start of big things to come with Heckla. something big must be on the way for silver the chineese are big buyers now.

[lamboguy]

i have always thought that metals will be the only asset class that people will want to own. i never could predict the reasons for it for people that live in this country because most people don't understand what place gold has in our system.

it seems that there are new regulatory issues on money markets that are going to start to take place this fall. money markets have always traded with a net asset of value of $1 marked to the $1 that you have deposited in it. now the values can float with the values. in other words if the demand for bonds remain as strong as it is, you can put money in a money market and lose value in them with time. there are no provisions for you to get more asset value either. so in essence you are going to be playing a one way game with money that you deposit into money markets. admittedly i don't think that you can lose that much money by placing yourself in what you might believe to be a safe asset, but i could be very wrong on that, just like i never dreamed there could ever be negative interest rates.http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-new-money-fund-rules-2015-03-11

[highnote]

i just saw HL close above $7 today. that was a great call. it has overperformed the one i like MUX in your time frame.

congratulations on one of the very best calls i have ever seen on a time tested proven asset. and the move only looks like the start of big things to come with Heckla. something big must be on the way for silver the chineese are big buyers now.

Thanks. I have been following HL since I was a pre-teen -- nearly 50 years! :eek: When it fell below $1.50 it was hard to believe. I figured it would either go bankrupt or take off. But I knew that it's assets alone had to be worth nearly $1.50 per share. So there was not much downside risk.

Also, it was as high a $8.00+ after the financial crisis of 2008-09. It fell to a $1.50 per share in a world where countries like Japan and U.S. are printing money to avoid a depression and China and India buy so much of it. That seemed irrational.

My only mistake was not buying more at $1.50. I tend to be financially conservative and diversify. I can't remember the last time I had a losing year, but I don't hit a lot of homeruns, either. I play the long game.

[highnote]

Negative interest rates are a huge tax on savers. It used to be that people with say $500,000 in retirement funds could count on an extra $35,000 per year at 7% interest and never had to worry about touching their principle.

Now that same $500,000 only produces about $12,000 per year and we're in an inflationary environment. So you need 1.5 million to have an extra $3,000 per month in retirement income. Or you have to start drawing down the principle to cover expenses.

Retirees will now have to take on more risk and buy dividend paying stocks. Companies like Philip Morris, Coca-Cola, Weyerhauser, etc., should fit the bill, but there is a risk that the stocks will decline in value.

Holding 1.5 million in stock is not the same as holding 1.5 million in a savings account.

i have always thought that metals will be the only asset class that people will want to own. i never could predict the reasons for it for people that live in this country because most people don't understand what place gold has in our system.

it seems that there are new regulatory issues on money markets that are going to start to take place this fall. money markets have always traded with a net asset of value of $1 marked to the $1 that you have deposited in it. now the values can float with the values. in other words if the demand for bonds remain as strong as it is, you can put money in a money market and lose value in them with time. there are no provisions for you to get more asset value either. so in essence you are going to be playing a one way game with money that you deposit into money markets. admittedly i don't think that you can lose that much money by placing yourself in what you might believe to be a safe asset, but i could be very wrong on that, just like i never dreamed there could ever be negative interest rates.http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-new-money-fund-rules-2015-03-11

[lamboguy]

i was just looking at the filings that came out last night after the bell and saw that Soros dumped all his ABX (barrick gold) at the highs and the miners look like there is some distribution in progress.

gold can easily pull back now to $1290 an ounce and bring down the miners with it. overnight the price of gold is up $10 so far so selling might be a good deal in when the markets open. i am going to sell a third of what i have.

[highnote]

The S&P is at 2190.15 as of August 15. That's up 19% from it's recent cyclical low.

I have a target of 2350 to 2457 by January 11, 2017.

I think it is more likely to hit this target if Clinton is elected than if Trump is elected. A Clinton presidency means there will be a little more stability in the transition of the government than if Trump gets elected.

Personally, I don't care who gets elected. I'm agnostic. I will adjust my investing to deal with the reality of the situation.

[lamboguy]

The S&P is at 2190.15 as of August 15. That's up 19% from it's recent cyclical low.

I have a target of 2350 to 2457 by January 11, 2017.

I think it is more likely to hit this target if Clinton is elected than if Trump is elected. A Clinton presidency means there will be a little more stability in the transition of the government than if Trump gets elected.

Personally, I don't care who gets elected. I'm agnostic. I will adjust my investing to deal with the reality of the situation.on political notes, when Bill Clinton was president the dollar got real strong, when he left and Bush took over the dollar almost went to hell. Obama has strengthened it.

leads me to what might happen with the next president. Hillary is a big favorite and Soros is selling now ahead of the election. does this mean that the dollar will strengthen again and kill gold like her husband did? or does it really matter who gets in?

[lamboguy]

another possibility is that Yellen does nothing this month and lets oil take off upside somehow. that would also give a big boost to gold.

there are certainly a lot of ways to get wipsawed in half in these markets.

[Saratoga_Mike]

on political notes, when Bill Clinton was president the dollar got real strong, when he left and Bush took over the dollar almost went to hell. Obama has strengthened it.

leads me to what might happen with the next president. Hillary is a big favorite and Soros is selling now ahead of the election. does this mean that the dollar will strengthen again and kill gold like her husband did? or does it really matter who gets in?

Despite (absurd) claims that the dollar is under the purview of the US Treasury, Fed policy now dictates the strength or weakness of the US dollar. I'd be careful when examining the causality between a president's tenure and the dollar's value.

[lamboguy]

a president can be in favor of cutting or raising taxes and keep us out of war or put us in war. those are big factor's in the strength of the currency. the fed just reacts with the tools they have after the actions of the executive and congressional branches of the government.