Interesting race at Oaklawn...

[thaskalos]

The 2nd race at Oaklawn today puts the spotlight on the ever-present question of whether or not the trainer factor supersedes conventional handicapping fundamentals in today's game.

The 3-year old filly Jias Curls is placed in a seemingly impossible-looking spot...where she is asked to face five opponents -- four of which look much more accomplished than her, at least on paper.

"So, what's so interesting about a scenario like that"...you ask?

Well...this filly was claimed out of her last race for the outrageous price of $30,000...after having just beaten $20,000 maiden claimers in slow time...while making a 4-wide move in a slow-paced race. She was 6-1 on the board in the race from which she was claimed...and she finished 5th -- beaten by over 12 lengths.

She was claimed by astute owner Maggi Moss...and the new trainer is red-hot Chris Richard -- who is winning at a 38% clip with new claiming acquisitions.

I will toss this horse out from my daily double wagers...and will closely monitor the race's result -- to see if, perhaps, the time has come for me to put my speed/pace figures on the shelf...and fully embrace the trainer factor as the most important consideration in today's version of my favorite game.

[JustRalph]

Great post. I will follow the story line...........thanks for bringing it up

[lamboguy]

i got that horse as the worst horse in the race. that being said, we jointly probably just put that horse in the winner's circle

[sally]

I wonder how many Curlin babies Maggi owns....maybe that's the reason...I prefer the :2: Rhonda's Lemondrop, if she doesn't get caught at the end :D).

[johnhannibalsmith]

I wonder how many Curlin babies Maggi owns...

I looked at the race and sort of thought the same thing, among others. There are a few things going on with that filly - the winning maiden race had a few next out winners, won turning back to a sprint for the first time since being sent off at 2-1 in a decent field of straight maidens at RP for her debut, blinkers experiments - now off... I could see a big fish taking a calculated risk and tagging a filly like that. The fact that she's back in at the same price and not lower or higher almost leads me to think that they are just offering her back to the original owner. Can't see her winning even with the hotshot at ridiculous percentages in almost every relevant category, but if she did, there at least are a couple of things you could look back at for a clue to the why of the claim and the how of a win. :D

[sally]

Well, maybe Maggi really did want a Curlin baby...at least my pick came in second against the favorite...:jump:. :)

[Tom]

So, you are keeping those speed and pace figures?

[thaskalos]

So, you are keeping those speed and pace figures?
I don't know if you feel the same way, Tom...but it bothers me to no end to see horses like this run big on a somewhat regular basis -- when they only have the "trainer factor" to recommend them.

I like handicapping HORSES...and I lose interest when I see the trainers taking center stage.

That's my main gripe with today's game...and I wish something more could be done to rectify the situation, before it gets out of hand -- if it hasn't gotten out of hand already.

[Tom]

What am I missing here?
You didn't like the horse, no one else did, and it ran poorly up the track.
The obvious horse won.

So what's the problem?

[cj]

What am I missing here?
You didn't like the horse, no one else did, and it ran poorly up the track.
The obvious horse won.

So what's the problem?

I don't think the result of one race changes the premise of the post. I understand, and even started a thread about it not long ago. Unfortunately, I don't see it changing any time soon. You just have to pick your spots to shoot against these move up guys.

[Tom]

Like the Bay Shore. :rolleyes:
Thank God I'm done with Aqu for another year.

[chadk66]

known Maggie the horse was claimed for one simple reason. Broodmare prospect. If they make a race horse out of her it's just gravy.