Rainbow 6 - mandatory payout on Friday 4-5-13

[horses4courses]

This will be the one day that I play this wager.

Andy Beyer is hyping it in the DRF, too.

http://www.drf.com/news/andrew-beyer-gulfstreams-rainbow-6-hard-resist-mandatory-payout

Post your thoughts on the six races, stating your contenders and eliminating the pretenders.

[magwell]

This will be the one day that I play this wager.

Andy Beyer is hyping it in the DRF, too.

http://www.drf.com/news/andrew-beyer-gulfstreams-rainbow-6-hard-resist-mandatory-payout

Post your thoughts on the six races, stating your contenders and eliminating the pretenders.I will start with horses that have slim to no chance to win...... I see at least 30 on a first run thru....of 72 possibles....

[horses4courses]

I will start with horses that have slim to no chance to win...... I see at least 30 on a first run thru....of 72 possibles....

Those are the tactics I might have employed had I been shooting for the sole winning ticket.
Not necessary now - so, for me, it's trying to find six logical winners.
A couple of prices wouldn't hurt, of course..... ;)

[magwell]

Those are the tactics I might have employed had I been shooting for the sole winning ticket.
Not necessary now - so, for me, it's trying to find six logical winners.
A couple of prices wouldn't hurt, of course..... ;) On next look I see at least 25 must use, with 17 still to make the cut....... I plan on going deep if I decide to dance. :)

[Phantombridgejumpe]

8th: 2/3/6/8/10
9th: 4/6/11/14 (14 is an AE, will add 4th if he doesn't draw in)
10th: 3/4/5/10
11th: 2/5/7
12th: 1/3/4
13th: 1/4/6/7/14 (same deal with the 14)

So 5x4x4x3x3x5 = 3600 = $360

[fiveouttasix]

Just my 2 cents...Sweet 'n Discreet in the 8th will be my single...Full sister to Discreet Dancer who has 4 wins at GP (5 starts)...I think this horse may be the only reason Javier is not at Keeneland today....At least we will get to see the Post parade & betting

[magwell]

Those are the tactics I might have employed had I been shooting for the sole winning ticket.
Not necessary now - so, for me, it's trying to find six logical winners.
A couple of prices wouldn't hurt, of course..... ;) Logical winners very tough with this card, this calls for deep coverage or no play at all for me.

[davew]

My thoughts are the logical winners will pay very well - just like today should.

If there are no real longshots, the tickets that try to buy the winners will be adding just as much as the carryover.

[Robert Fischer]

anyone have an estimate/update of the carryover going into tomorrow ?

[davew]

$1,961,806.16 carryover
(est. near $6 million total pool tomorrow)

tomorrow
12 horses each race
2,985,984 combos tomorrow if none scratched

[therussmeister]

Looks like a good chance of rain.

[Valuist]

They probably do 5 million in handle tomorrow alone IF the rain holds off.

If not and its sloppy and off the turf, it will cut the handle in half, if not more.

[mistergee]

I believe rain projection is 100%

[magwell]

I believe rain projection is 100% Raining now and has been on and off all evening but i doubt they will be off the turf on the last day of the meet with this big pick six........ unless we get a typhoon tomorrow ....:)

[Pensacola Pete]

Total number of winning combinations: $2,985,984

Predictions:

Total pool: $5,600,000

Number of winning tickets: 1,400

Winning payout: $4,000

Number of Todd Pletcher horses winning: 1

And last but not least:

The Twinspires Players Pook, which is already capped at $100,000, will hit 5 out of 6 winners after leaving out a winner that almost everybody else playing over $40 on the race would have included.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

They will hit 20 timed and lose a few bucks. Your $4.000 prediction sounds realistic.

[fiveouttasix]

DRFWelsch
After heavy overnight rain and w/more in forecast all turf races in Rainbow 6 sequence will be taken off now to protect public.#Gulf

Above was just posted on Twitter...Back to the drawing board

[lamboguy]

i have narrowed down race 8 to 3 horses, #5, #6, #12. i am leaning towards #5 ON PAROLE. i am going to wait to see how the track is playing, if they are closing i will single him, if not i will use the other 2. if Pletcher horse win, i lose.

[Valuist]

DRFWelsch
After heavy overnight rain and w/more in forecast all turf races in Rainbow 6 sequence will be taken off now to protect public.#Gulf

Above was just posted on Twitter...Back to the drawing board

According to Welsch on Twitter, the FIRST two turf races are still on, but of course, could still be taken off the grass.

Edit: All of the Rainbow Six turf races have now been moved to the main track.

[lamboguy]

According to Welsch on Twitter, the FIRST two turf races are still on, but of course, could still be taken off the grass.

Edit: All of the Rainbow Six turf races have now been moved to the main track.
that is a beautiful thing! this is going to separate the pretender's from the contender's.

[davew]

that is a beautiful thing! this is going to separate the pretender's from the contender's.

The 'racing gods' are trying to turn this into a lottery. It still should be fun at 10 cents per combo.

[tonypp]

im not spending over 20 dollars.Every race looks to crap shoot.

[magwell]

What a revolting on development this is........:(

[Phantombridgejumpe]

But honestly I don't mind. Want to see what the scratches will do.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

!

[_______]

im not spending over 20 dollars.Every race looks to crap shoot.

I'll probably spend $24.00 singeling Sweet and Discreet and Fogozano. I give my ticket substantially less than a 1% chance of cashing. But it's essentially what I'd spend on a win bet and this is a zero takeout bet today.

I had planned on spending more until I saw the entries. It's an absurdly hard sequence.

[SandyW]

Does anybody have the scratches ? I don't see them anywhere.

[cj]

Does anybody have the scratches ? I don't see them anywhere.

http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechangesGP-USA.html

[Valuist]

Scratches are up on Equibase. Go to the entries section.

The loser on the day is Castellano. He had the mounts on Third Martini and Nora's Song, both morning line favorites who've scratched.

[SandyW]

http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechangesGP-USA.html

Thanks.

[DRIVEWAY]

After scratches the total combinations has dropped from 2,985,984 to 583,200.

Original all-all-all-all-all-all combinations would have cost $298,598.40 but is now only $58,320.

For the truly brave single the last race for a cost of $5,832.

Single the 11th and 13th race for a cost of $583.20.

I'll go with the 6 in the 11th and the 12 in the 13th. All I need is two winners, $583.20 and a wheel barrow to carry out my winning.:D http://images.hayneedle.com/mgen/dynimage.ms?v=1&w=226&h=226&img=master:JEN293.jpg&pad=5&shadow=7&ds=ds4&fill=ffffff&

[_______]

I'll probably spend $24.00 singeling Sweet and Discreet and Fogozano. I give my ticket substantially less than a 1% chance of cashing. But it's essentially what I'd spend on a win bet and this is a zero takeout bet today.

I had planned on spending more until I saw the entries. It's an absurdly hard sequence.

Make that singeling Sweet and Discreet and King Khalifa. Could be over quick for me.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Even though this isn't my type of bet (if there is such a thing these days), I looked at the sequence the last couple of days to see if it might be fun and playable for less than a couple hundred tops.

I thought I had a decent ticket in that range and thought I might actually detour off for a rare trip to the OTB to give me something to watch and root for today.

Unfortunately, with the weather, I tried to rebuild the ticket and it actually went up in cost slightly so I'm pretty convinced that I'll just skip it after all. The last two legs in the sequence just became borderline crapshoots for me - two pretty cheap grass races off turf to finish the meet - not quite races that I'd want to count on anything from any of the human/equine participants in. But, for the heck of it, I'll post my ticket for the entertainment factor (more yours than mine). :D

5,6,10 / 4,13,14 / 4,5,10,12 / 2,3,7,9,12 / 4,8 / 1,6,8,12,14 = $180

[Simple Syrup]

2/3/6/8/9/10
3/4/14
3/4/5/8/10/12
3/6/7/8/9/11
8
1

$64.80
Good Luck to all

[Aner]

I put my ticket in.

R8 = 4,10
R9 = 8,13,14
R10 = 5
R11 = 1,7,11,13
R12 = 1,8,11,12
R13 = 6,8,14

Total = $28.80

[Valuist]

Other than Sweet and Discreet, Bartholome in the 12th may go off as the 2nd biggest favorite. Who would've thought that 24 hours ago?

[Dahoss2002]

2-6-10
4-8-14
5-7-10
3-6-11
1-2-11
1-2-6-14
$97.20 pissing in the wind :lol:

[ceejay]

(3,8,10)-(4,13)-(4,5,10)-(3,11)-(1,8,11,12,13)-(6,11,12,14)
No. of Combo: 720
Total Amount: $72.00

[johnhannibalsmith]

...
5,6,10 / 4,13,14 / 4,5,10,12 / 2,3,7,9,12 / 4,8 / 1,6,8,12,14 = $180

Apparently the four in leg five has now been scratched as well. I had the 13 as an alternate on my crib notes. sssoooo...


5,6,10 / 4,13,14 / 4,5,10,12 / 2,3,7,9,12 / SCR,8,13 / 1,6,8,12,14 = $180

I take these make believe wagers far too seriously to settle for being awarded the post time favorite, who will probably win by a pole. :D

[davew]

I haven't decided if I am going to play yet
The 'sloppy' course seems to be running true so far.

2,3,6,10 // 3,4,8,14 // 5.10 // 3,6,7 // 1,4,11 // 1,6,8,14 ($115.20)

[tonypp]

anyone buy into twinspires 100000 ticket and if so can you post it.

[davew]

anyone buy into twinspires 100000 ticket and if so can you post it.

It is posted in the other thread
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=89859&page=29&pp=15


With the scratch of the 4 in the 12th, it lowers my ticket to $76.80 which is in. The speed seems to be holding and just running 'fast' it seems.

[_______]

8: 10
9: 4
10: 4,5,10
11: 2,3,7,13
12: 1,2
13: 1,2,6,11,14

$12.00

8: 2,3,4,10
9: 4
10: 4,5,10
11: 2,3,7,13
12: 2
13: 1,6

$9.60

Meh. I'm not going to throw hundreds at this.

[iceknight]

5,6 / 4 / 5 / 7 / 13 / 12, 14 (may pal ariana)

betting it for 0.20 cents per ticket.

[tonypp]

2-10
4-14
4-5-10
3
1-2
1-14




4.80:ThmbUp:

[davew]

After Sweet N Discrete wins the first race,


16,313,040 live tickets with 5 more races

[Dahoss2002]

After Sweet N Discrete wins the first race,


16,313,040 live tickets with 5 more races


So if some shots don't come in, the payoffs are gonna be smaller than total ticket cost for some.

[Pensacola Pete]

The chalk won the first two races. If #5 wins the 10th race, a lot of the whales are going to take a beating.

Here was my ticket after scratches and re-handicapping off the turf and on a sloppy track:

10
4 14
5
3 6 11
2 8 11
1 2 6 8

Cost: $7.20

[davew]

after the fav 14 (Wild Perfection - 8/5) wins the 2nd leg

4,088,198 live tickets with 4 races to go

[Phantombridgejumpe]

Lol

[Stillriledup]

after the fav 14 (Wild Perfection - 8/5) wins the 2nd leg

4,088,198 live tickets with 4 races to go

Is that right? How could 80 percent of the tickets still be alive?

[Phantombridgejumpe]

There were about 50 million tickets

[Dahoss2002]

7 horse helps my cause but 3 races left. Think if i hit it will at least pay my ticket back

[Stillriledup]

There were about 50 million tickets

Oh, i figured it wrong, there was like 5.2 million of new money, so if you do it that way, there was 50 million tickets....there has to be more than 4 million alive after 2 legs....but, i hope not! lol

[davew]

DaHoss, you are the only still alive that posted here

after the 7 wins race 10 (Running Wildcat 6/1)

there are 341,703 live tickets ?you will get a least a couple hundred if cash?
with 3 races to go

[Phantombridgejumpe]

And yes, I'm done.

[davew]

after the 11 Trinni Heart at 4/1 wins the 11th

there are 42,472 live tickets with 2 races left (8 horses and 10 horses)



keep it going DaHoss (I'm rooting for you now) it might be over $2K now...

[Stillriledup]

Does anyone know if this thing pays consos like a regular pick 6? I thought i remember seeing the price in 2011 (paid like 3 grand) but there wasnt any consos...im figuring this is the same scenario.

[tiger rose]

yup no wildcat for me either
had the
10 Jordan's Image
11 Old Parr
12 Bishop of Nola

[Stillriledup]

yup no wildcat for me either
had the
10 Jordan's Image
11 Old Parr
12 Bishop of Nola


Tough beat with the 11, considering how speed favoring the track seems to be, he looked a winner once he cleared.

[Dahoss2002]

DaHoss, you are the only still alive that posted here

after the 7 wins race 10 (Running Wildcat 6/1)

there are 341,703 live tickets ?you will get a least a couple hundred if cash?
with 3 races to go

I hope I can get by the 12th. Got 1-2-11

[johnhannibalsmith]

So glad it rained. :lol:

[Dahoss2002]

Damn I hope i can get this. Got 1-2-6-14 in last

[johnhannibalsmith]

Damn I hope i can get this. Got 1-2-6-14 in last

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:



Goooooooooooo!!!

[Saratoga_Mike]

Does anyone have all the will-pays? Thanks.

[Stillriledup]

these are approx

1700

2200

not sure

scr

scr

2000

scr

2700

5800

not sure

5600

3000

1600

[johnhannibalsmith]

Damn I hope i can get this. Got 1-2-6-14 in last

$1734 isn't bad for pissing into the wind. :D

Congrats!! :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

Hard lessons learned for a lot of people today to stay away from sloppy speed favoring tracks...all good handicapping goes out the window and just whoever is in the correct position on the track gets the money.

This pick 6 today had little to do with handicapping horses and a lot to do with handicapping the track.

[TexasDolly]

Well done ,hope the payoff is big !
If $1734 is right ,very good indeed !
TD

[JustRalph]

2-6-10
4-8-14
5-7-10
3-6-11
1-2-11
1-2-6-14
$97.20 pissing in the wind :lol:

nice pissing :ThmbUp:

[Phantombridgejumpe]

!!!!

[davew]

the probables changed

now I see the 1 would be $4234.01

not sure whats up, but delaying official - and still a good piss in the wind for either

congrats DaHoss

the twinspires $100K group had it 39 times if I added correct.

[Simple Syrup]

Bravo, Dahoss.

[Simple Syrup]

$4234.01 pre-tax. Not a bad day. Congrats!

[TexasDolly]

[QUOTE=davew]the probables changed

now I see the 1 would be $4234.01

not sure whats up, but delaying official - and still a good piss in the wind for either


So Twinspires made some money to then .
TD

[Stillriledup]

Hmmm, sorry about the misinformation, i could have sworn i got those probables off the gulfstream feed....my apologies, i have no idea where they came from. :bang:

[FantasticDan]

$4234.01 pre-tax. Not a bad day. Congrats!Awesome! Kudos, Dahoss!! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[johnhannibalsmith]

Hmmm, sorry about the misinformation, i could have sworn i got those probables off the gulfstream feed....my apologies, i have no idea where they came from. :bang:

You did. I wrote down all four of the will pays posted that Dahoss was live to.

$1734, 2272, 2047, and 1645, respectively and numerically. They were cycling through the pools at a rapid rate of speed, but that is what they had posted, which is right in line with the approximates that you posted.

[Stillriledup]

You did. I wrote down all four of the will pays posted that Dahoss was live to.

$1734, 2272, 2047, and 1645, respectively and numerically. They were cycling through the pools at a rapid rate of speed, but that is what they had posted, which is right in line with the approximates that you posted.

Thanks, i thought i was hallucinating (wouldnt be the first time) :D

[LAP_520]

2-6-10
4-8-14
5-7-10
3-6-11
1-2-11
1-2-6-14
$97.20 pissing in the wind :lol:


$0.10 Pick-6 10 // 14 // 7 // 11 // 11 // 1 pays $4234.01



CONGRATS !!!!:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[TurfRuler]

2-6-10
4-8-14
5-7-10
3-6-11
1-2-11
1-2-6-14
$97.20 pissing in the wind :lol:

Great play and great price with so many hitting on a rainy-bow day. Anything like your play that rubs it in the whales faces including Twinspires pool players. $100,000 is a stupid bet following the crowd.

[horses4courses]

$0.10 Pick-6 10 // 14 // 7 // 11 // 11 // 1 pays $4234.01



CONGRATS !!!!:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Nice hit! :ThmbUp:

I didn't pull the trigger....just couldn't spend $38, and couldn't decide between the 2 and 10 in the first leg.
Would have missed the 11 in R11, but that horse was playable. I ended up saving money.

For a PK-6 that sucker was very hittable, and a big payout under the circumstances.
Really is a good day to consider playing the PK6.
More rainbows to chase next year!

[Beachbabe]

Congrats DaHoss !!!!

[iceknight]

Damn I hope i can get this. Got 1-2-6-14 in last Very nice work and great payout! CONGRATS!!

[Fastracehorse]

Hard lessons learned for a lot of people today to stay away from sloppy speed favoring tracks...all good handicapping goes out the window and just whoever is in the correct position on the track gets the money.

This pick 6 today had little to do with handicapping horses and a lot to do with handicapping the track.

alot of people made $

fffastt

[Stillriledup]

alot of people made $

fffastt


I know, a lot of people won. I was thinking about the whales who put in 20k tickets and only got 4k back. :D

[Dahoss2002]

You did. I wrote down all four of the will pays posted that Dahoss was live to.

$1734, 2272, 2047, and 1645, respectively and numerically. They were cycling through the pools at a rapid rate of speed, but that is what they had posted, which is right in line with the approximates that you posted.


Those are the numbers I saw too. I had to leave for work and when I got there I had a friend check the results with his I-phone. He asked how much I would win and I said about 2 grand. I then asked him to check the prices and was pleasantly surprised.
Thanks to everyone for the kind words.

[Dahoss2002]

nice pissing :ThmbUp:
Thanks Ralph. Sometimes getting a little blown back at you aint all bad. I see you are from Dallas. Did you ever attend Louisiana Downs in the mid 80's when "pic-6 fever" was king?