raybo
04-03-2013, 03:43 PM
I ran across a site, Odds Line Creation (http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/bloggers/simon-rowlands/post-222-040810.html), Simon Rowlands wrote the article and he showed how to create an odds line. Since I've been wanting to create one for a long time, I decided to put it in a spreadsheet. I tied it, initially to the RS Black Box program so I could automate some of the manual entry in the method. I ran some races through it and, at least at GP on the card I used, the winner came up in the top 2 lowest odds line horses a very good percentage of the time. My personal ratings were a combination of the Prime Power ratings and my own Class ratings, but you can use any ratings you like, last race speed, best of last 2,3,4, etc., whatever rankings method you have confidence in.
I am posting that workbook here, use it as you wish. The "Power" number can be changed depending on class of race (higher the class, higher the Power number). The "Default Confidence" number in the workbook applies to all horses in the race, via formulas, however, you can clear those formulas, in the "Conf." column, and enter individual confidence levels for each horse, depending on your own confidence in that particular horse. You can also change the "Default Confidence" number if you find something that works better for a particular track or class, etc.. 0.167 appears to be a decent default value for the races I checked at GP.
By not entering a rating for a particular horse, you are effectively removing it from contender status.
Anyway, here it is, for what it's worth, if nothing more than an example of how you might create your own odds line. Let me know how it works for you.
I am posting that workbook here, use it as you wish. The "Power" number can be changed depending on class of race (higher the class, higher the Power number). The "Default Confidence" number in the workbook applies to all horses in the race, via formulas, however, you can clear those formulas, in the "Conf." column, and enter individual confidence levels for each horse, depending on your own confidence in that particular horse. You can also change the "Default Confidence" number if you find something that works better for a particular track or class, etc.. 0.167 appears to be a decent default value for the races I checked at GP.
By not entering a rating for a particular horse, you are effectively removing it from contender status.
Anyway, here it is, for what it's worth, if nothing more than an example of how you might create your own odds line. Let me know how it works for you.