HANA Blog - California Racing Handle Update - Low Takeout Pick5

[Jeff P]

Not only are Santa Anita's year over year handle numbers for the 14% takeout pick five up $5.35 million and 46.9 percent respectively - but, apparently, the low takeout bet is sparking handle growth in the pools of the other wagers on the wagering menu for the races in the pick five sequence.

With 1 fewer race day this year vs. last year – and looking strictly at the races in the Pick5 sequence - or races 1-5 only:

Dollar Change in Total Handle Q1 2013 vs. Q1 2012:.......... UP $16.45 million
Percentage Change in Total Handle Q1 2013 vs. Q1 2012:.. UP 10.14 percent

However, looking only at the races outside the Pick5 sequence:

Dollar Change in Total Handle Q1 2013 vs. Q1 2012:.......... UP $2.13 million
Percentage Change in Total Handle Q1 2013 vs. Q1 2012:.. UP 0.94 percent



Read more at the HANA Blog...
http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2013/04/california-racing-update.html





-jp

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[JustRalph]

Good piece Jeff. It's getting re-tweeted too............. :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

Those are interesting stats.

[lamboguy]

TVG did not broadcast Santa Anita last year, this was probably the main reason for the growth in business.

i noticed yesterday that the handle was up for Parx with a terrible card. TVG also just started taking Parx on monday this week.

[Charli125]

TVG did not broadcast Santa Anita last year, this was probably the main reason for the growth in business.

i noticed yesterday that the handle was up for Parx with a terrible card. TVG also just started taking Parx on monday this week.

If that's the case, and I'm not saying it didn't help, then why are the first 5 races up over 10%, and the remaining races up less than 1%?

[cj]

If that's the case, and I'm not saying it didn't help, then why are the first 5 races up over 10%, and the remaining races up less than 1%?

Possibly just because they are run earlier? I would imagine TVG handle goes down as the day gets later, but I could be wrong. I'm not saying I agree with the TVG theory.

[Charli125]

Possibly just because they are run earlier? I would imagine TVG handle goes down as the day gets later, but I could be wrong. I'm not saying I agree with the TVG theory.

We're talking about a 14 Million dollar difference here. This doesn't have to do with time, it has to do with a bet that causes people to bet into other races.

[cj]

Like I said, I don't agree.

[the little guy]

Possibly just because they are run earlier? I would imagine TVG handle goes down as the day gets later, but I could be wrong. I'm not saying I agree with the TVG theory.

Shouldn't handle be lower early in the day due to it still be early out on the West Coast? If someone told me one half of the Parx card had a significantly higher takeout, I would have bet it was the second half ( and lost, apparently, as usual ).

This is a major reason an early Pick-5 in California rates to do better than one back East.

[Valuist]

Possibly just because they are run earlier? I would imagine TVG handle goes down as the day gets later, but I could be wrong. I'm not saying I agree with the TVG theory.

I think that does make sense. Once Gulfstream, Aqu, Oaklawn and FG have concluded, I think many bettors call it a day. On a real big stakes day it may be different, but overall, there's only so many races a day to play and handicap.

[cj]

Shouldn't handle be lower early in the day due to it still be early out on the West Coast? If someone told me one half of the Parx card had a significantly higher takeout, I would have bet it was the second half ( and lost, apparently, as usual ).

This is a major reason an early Pick-5 in California rates to do better than one back East.

I think a lot of people bet Santa Anita, then drop off as the east coast tracks end. That was my experience when I was going to the track live and to OTBs.

[therussmeister]

TVG did not broadcast Santa Anita last year, this was probably the main reason for the growth in business.

i noticed yesterday that the handle was up for Parx with a terrible card. TVG also just started taking Parx on monday this week.
Parx handled about 2 million both Monday and Tuesday, I can't remember the last time they handled 2 million.

[DeanT]

It's an interesting phenomenon for betting geeks to look at. Something similar happened at Balmoral Park in harness racing - which might be the most interesting track to study.

The pick 4, starting in the sixth race, was growing (they lowered rake and pushed the bet quite hard, locally and via email etc), but the other pools were kinda just sitting there, with no real boost. About six months later there seemed to be more of a bump, and early this year Balmoral talked about the spin off's in the pick 4 races - ex pools were up about 25%, tri pools were up similar. Overall pools (all races) were up by about 16%.

I think (like with any bet) it takes time. At first larger players may play it, but over time it gains momentum and a lot of eyeballs.

My play is still focused on NYRA, GP, and a few small tracks, and I dont play California racing, but as an outsider looking at the stats I think the pick 5 is simply gaining some momentum. For whatever reason, players like it, and they are not just betting the pick 5 itself.

Dean

[AndyC]

I believe that if a serious handicapper spends time to handicap a P-5 or P-6 that they will likely find other single race bets in the process. So if a serial bet is gaining popularity it will mean more handle for the individual races.