how to handle droppers

[imofe]

I thought I would throw this subject out there because knowing what to do with droppers is very important. I have seen handicappers do a number of things over the years concerning the evaluation of droppers.
Here are a few

1) Skip over the lines where the horse is up in class as if it did not exist.

2) Judge the horse and still expect a good race from the horse, but not as stringent as if the horse was in the same class.

3) Automatically consider horses dropping from or to certain conditions as contenders. An example would be a horse dropping out of a top class like opens to non winners of x dollars in the last so many starts.

I personally use number 1. But a problem comes up when a horse has its last three starts all at a higher class. Then it just becomes a subjective call.

I am curious as to how others handle droppers.

[Capper Al]

Using a paper and pencil method, I'd look for a fourth or fifth place finish within 6 lengths in the last race.

[imofe]

Al,

I use to do something like this. But what started happening is that the horses were so uncompetitive that it would totally blacken their form. Sometimes the regular driver would take another horse and the low percentage driver would botch the drive. Then when the horse dropped back down, the regular driver got back up. I will look at the 4th or 5th within 6 lengths to see how it works out at the tracks I play. Thanks for the suggestion.

[Mr_Ed]

New type of 'dropper' at the track..........pants:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6hHUOZXXqM

[precisionk]

I do a combination of the three. Drops in class have to be considered and most importantly you have to come up with a reason why. Take Northfield for example. Horses jump up and down in class with absolutely no reason just looking at the PP. Lots of horses who just won now drop back.

Could be that the horse is regressing and the owner is putting it against software, owner wants money, horse is hurt, no available slots at their current class level for that night, doing the race secretary a favor etc etc.

All sorts of reasons, key is finding what the true one is. What I do is look at those class drops and see how competitive they were in the previous class. Even on a class drop if that horse is not competitive in a race then, what will make that horse competitive on the drop. If a horse has regressed alot at a higher level, I will skip said horse on the drop. I like to see a horse 3-5 lengths consistently within the lead at a higher level. Then on the drop, I will be on said horse.

I would much prefer a horse in form over a class dropper.

[imofe]

PrecisionK

I have no problem with a horse like Georges Vacation ( 3rd race last Sat at Balmoral). Horse drops right back to where he won after one start up in class with weaker driver. It is when a horse has three or more races in something like NW of 9,000 last 5 and is now entered in NW of 5,000 last 5 and the horse's lines are middle of the pack finishes with no significant moves. The reason for the drop would be because of getting into this condition and a better chance to win. I will try to find a recent race and post it.

[imofe]

Here is a horse from Chester today that ran in the 8th race. The #3 Takemewithyou drops into NW 5,000 last 5. His last two starts were NW 8,500 last 5 and 22,000 CL Handicap. The races before that were at the Meadowlands. To me this horse is a big question mark. Not off form but not showing anything great against better. The horse ran second in this race.