False favorites

[jackad]

Do you have any down and dirty ways to spot false favorites?

[shanta]

here are a few ideas:

1)negative class drops

2)being asked to do something he has never done before(turf,routing,etc)

3)race shape or pace scenario that is working against him.

4)cheap 4,000 5,000 claimers who have won 2 races in a row. these kind at most tracks very rarely hold this form.

5) a fav who has improved his speed figure 3 straight races and his last race is best showing on his pp's.

Richie

[Valuist]

A horse in sharp form but now goes from a solid trainer to an inferior one. Usually the horse is still bet as if he/she was in a good barn.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Wrong running style for the track speed/surface.

[kitts]

My favorite false favorite is the publicity horse. The one with a lot of buzz that has yet to live up to it. The most fun I had with this category was when Pendleton Ridge, a Maiden, ran in the Kentucky Derby, badly. He came to Southern California where I delighted to hear "Heck, Man, he ran in the Derby!" The horse was odds-on in at least two of his next MSW races.

[ceejay]

One of my favorites is the suspicous class drop.

[schweitz]

Almost any horse first time out after being claimed from Steve Asmussen.

[SAL]

One that I've been doing with success lately, is tossing the heavy favorites that you think are due to "bounce". The book "Speed to Spare" pointed out a few patterns to spot potential candidates.

[BIG RED]

I have stopped betting horses that become the betting favorite, that has lost 2-3 lengths, in its last race, in the stretch.

[trying2win]

If I'm looking at the past performances, and I see that the favorite
in a race has the 'SECONDITIS' habit, I like to look for a win contender that has shown the ability to win fairly often and is going off at a half-decent price.


T2W

[Tom]

Any sure thing I single in the pic4! :(

[hurrikane]

schwietz.....that's interesting....i like him

assmussen...last 356 days

1st after claim... 90 30 32% .88 (obviously a lot of other people like him too)

[so.cal.fan]

"Almost any horse first time out after being claimed from Steve Asmussen".

I think he meant AFTER S.A. loses the horse......we have a few trainers that fit that pattern here.....Jeff Mullins comes to mind.

[Buddha]

Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR
schwietz.....that's interesting....i like him

assmussen...last 356 days

1st after claim... 90 30 32% .88 (obviously a lot of other people like him too)

he was saying horses claimed from asmussen, not by him.

[schweitz]

Buddha, I"m not talking about when Asmussen claims a horse but when one is claimed from him!

[Bubbles]

For false favorite ID-ing, I use the ol' stopwatch. If a horse won his last by seven or eight, but with a lousy time, he's not a worthy fave. In this case I would take a horse who lost his last while running a considerably faster time and try to beat the chalk with him.

[schweitz]

Oops!! Sorry Buddha, you just said that!

[dav4463]

I completely agree with the Steve Asmussen angle. It seems like he gets absolutely everything he can get from a horse before dumping him on a lesser trainer.....kind of runs them ragged before losing them... You can add Cole Norman to that angle as well.

[Foolish Pleasure]

1. Stretching >1/8th of a mile first time ever
2. Off >200 days
3. First time surface


Two of these three as chalk and they lose multiples of the track take.