jeebus1083
03-26-2013, 10:23 AM
Once again, we have a maiden claiming race. This time, we're seeing 3YO's sprinting at Santa Anita. In the previous "autopsy" thread, I explained my typical approach to maiden claimers, which I tend to seek out younger, lightly raced runners with "clean" (very few starts) records and may still have some (if not a glimmer of) hope. I sometimes will target a first-time starter when conditions permit. In short, I am trying to isolate horses that may have development potential from the professional "have nots" which tend to proliferate these maiden claiming slobberknockers.
In these restricted 3YO races, the game changes somewhat. A 3YO is still physically coming into their own, and their abilities can easily change from race to race. Like a copious meteorologist forecasting the weather, we try and forecast potential improvement. Take into account that horses do not race as often as they used to, and you are dealing with several lightly raced runners with the occasional firster or group of firsters. For some, this is a headache. The 0-for-20 types with literally ZERO potential (at least this time of year) typically are non-existent, so there are not as many "auto-toss" opportunities as there would be in an older maiden claiming race.
So let's run down the handicapping (Warning: Lengthy analysis):
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=SA&race=6&date=2013-03-24
Of the ten horses going to post, we have three first time starters. The favorite here is #10 TIZAPLAYER out of the Doug O'Neill barn. On the surface, the pedigree screams of promise, and the worktabs have been fast. One can beg the question as to why the horse is entered for $30k instead of in MSW company, but that was not of concern to me. O'Neill usually places his runners - especially younger horses - where they will be competitive. On this alone, the horse is a contender. However, Post 10 is a tough egg to crack, especially at first asking. Lots of things can and do happen to inexperienced runners from a wide post. At a short price, there is more risk potential than reward potential. If I was doing an ABCX array for Pick 3/Pick 4 wagering (a la Steve Crist), TIZAPLAYER would be an easy "B". As a win bet or a standalone runner, I say that we have to let him beat us.
Another firster, #9 REAL DEAL APPEAL, is cut from a similar cloth - decent breeding, consistent (yet slower) works - but again, a poor post position. Jockey Puglisi is ice cold (21-0-2-3) at SA this meet. If I was doing the Crist ABCX array, this one would be a "C" or perhaps a borderline "X". Straight up, he's a toss.
Our last firster, #2 MISTY'S BEST BET, gets sent out by a 2% Los Alamitos-based trainer, and has questionable breeding suggesting "win early" potential. There is not enough positive information to warrant an endorsement. An "X" on the Crist ABCX array, and a non-contender in general.
Now, the fun starts, aka the non-contenders, or pure "X" designations. #3 FEATHERS INTHE SKY encountered early trouble in his debut and drops from statebred MSW to the $30k tag. Why not another attempt at the higher level? A 7% overall trainer (0-for-12 2nd start 2012-13) doesn't breed much confidence. #5 PRIMED AND READY is knocking on the door of professional maidenship, having repeatedly crashed and burned at single digit prices and handily beaten by 26 lengths off the recent layoff. Blinkers off did no good, so blinkers return on, plus a jockey change. Toss. #7 ONE FOR NOTHING, at 0-for-13 and poor human connections is one of those "auto-toss" types mentioned up above. #1 ARMY COMMANDER and #4 ANZEAU both have 0-for jockeys on call here, the latter refusing to break last out. Not a ringing endorsement, and both would really need a "last horse standing" scenario to develop to have a chance.
With our "trash" out of the way, we can move onto the meat of our ticket, the "A" list contenders. #8 TEN TEQUILAS moved up somewhat on a "wet-fast" strip last out and was getting ample support at the windows here so word was out. Only questions are did the wet-fast strip move him up, or is this a horse on the move? I felt there to be enough upside to consider, but still felt that 9/2 was a little light to play straight up.
My pick: #6 SHINING SON. At first glance, the second half of O'Neill's uncoupled entry is a tough read, as those 6 1/2F downhill turfers can be very fickle. Considering the wide trip from Post 11, and the wagering support (5-1) last out, a change in karma, including a drop in class from statebred specials to maiden claimers could be inevitable here. Blinkers go on and despite the J/T stats, O'Neill puts Gutierrez on a good one every now and then. He was in the 5-1/6-1 neighborhood for most of the betting, and in that price range in this field, I will bite.
Now the race (note, no head-on available, so I'll do the best I can):
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/saframe1.jpg
Good start for all except Anzeau (#4), the same horse that dwelt last out. He broke better, but as you see, he will spot the field a large margin shortly.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/saframe2.jpg
With a better post this time, Shining Son (#6) is able to break well for position, while Tizaplayer (#10) is hung out wide, others not letting him go. As you will see, this loss of ground and a subsequent duel will be that one's undoing.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/saframe3.jpg
Real Deal Appeal (#9) is able to move up and begins to duel with Tizaplayer, while Gutierrez takes back on Shining Son, sitting a good pocket through 22.11 early fractions. Already, this field is beginning to string out somewhat. The race remains virtually unchanged until...
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/saframe4.jpg
...the midpoint on the turn and a 45.47 half, when Shining Son gets angled out and given his cue to challenge. Tizaplayer and Real Deal Appeal are still in it, but the early events are about to take their toll. Look at the Trakus, and how spread out this field has gotten. A classic case of "haves" feasting on several "have nots" here.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/saframe5.jpg
Shining Son has finally worn down the frontrunners, although Tizaplayer is fighting gamely on the inside. Real Deal Appeal is now retreating, along with the rest of this field, including Ten Tequilas (#8) the wise-guy horse on the tote that had improved over the wet-fast last out. The Trakus "chiclets" are disappearing from view, the field, as a friend of mine loves to put it, "is strung out from here to Canarsie!"
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/saframe6.jpg
Victory! Shining Son drawing away with every stride. It's hard to see with the crop job on the video, but the Trakus chiclets are now down to 4, an official 20 1/4 length gap from 1st to 10th.
Lessons learned:
1) Give most second time starters the benefit of the doubt. Shining Son laid an egg on the downhill turf sprint last out and had real excuses. A surface/distance switch, an equipment change, a jockey change, a class drop and improved post position are more than enough reasons to forecast improvement.
2) Inexperienced horses breaking wide are poor risks at short prices. Looking at the Trakus data on SA's website, Tizaplayer's trip isn't as bad as it appears, but he had to run harder than he probably was comfortable doing to run the race that he did. With a better post draw, Tizaplayer potentially runs a more relaxed race, but at 9/5 in this large field, he was an unacceptable underlay.
3) Reserve judgment on horses receiving support off a previous good effort when it was over a wet surface. Ten Tequilas sucked a bunch of players into his wet-fast race and the subsequent improvement over the debut. In fact, the horse was in the 3-1/4-1 neighborhood for part of the wagering before petering out to 9/2. Could he have duplicated that race over a fast strip on Sunday? Absolutely, but in my estimation, I needed more than 9/2 to play.
I've reported. You decide! :)
In these restricted 3YO races, the game changes somewhat. A 3YO is still physically coming into their own, and their abilities can easily change from race to race. Like a copious meteorologist forecasting the weather, we try and forecast potential improvement. Take into account that horses do not race as often as they used to, and you are dealing with several lightly raced runners with the occasional firster or group of firsters. For some, this is a headache. The 0-for-20 types with literally ZERO potential (at least this time of year) typically are non-existent, so there are not as many "auto-toss" opportunities as there would be in an older maiden claiming race.
So let's run down the handicapping (Warning: Lengthy analysis):
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=SA&race=6&date=2013-03-24
Of the ten horses going to post, we have three first time starters. The favorite here is #10 TIZAPLAYER out of the Doug O'Neill barn. On the surface, the pedigree screams of promise, and the worktabs have been fast. One can beg the question as to why the horse is entered for $30k instead of in MSW company, but that was not of concern to me. O'Neill usually places his runners - especially younger horses - where they will be competitive. On this alone, the horse is a contender. However, Post 10 is a tough egg to crack, especially at first asking. Lots of things can and do happen to inexperienced runners from a wide post. At a short price, there is more risk potential than reward potential. If I was doing an ABCX array for Pick 3/Pick 4 wagering (a la Steve Crist), TIZAPLAYER would be an easy "B". As a win bet or a standalone runner, I say that we have to let him beat us.
Another firster, #9 REAL DEAL APPEAL, is cut from a similar cloth - decent breeding, consistent (yet slower) works - but again, a poor post position. Jockey Puglisi is ice cold (21-0-2-3) at SA this meet. If I was doing the Crist ABCX array, this one would be a "C" or perhaps a borderline "X". Straight up, he's a toss.
Our last firster, #2 MISTY'S BEST BET, gets sent out by a 2% Los Alamitos-based trainer, and has questionable breeding suggesting "win early" potential. There is not enough positive information to warrant an endorsement. An "X" on the Crist ABCX array, and a non-contender in general.
Now, the fun starts, aka the non-contenders, or pure "X" designations. #3 FEATHERS INTHE SKY encountered early trouble in his debut and drops from statebred MSW to the $30k tag. Why not another attempt at the higher level? A 7% overall trainer (0-for-12 2nd start 2012-13) doesn't breed much confidence. #5 PRIMED AND READY is knocking on the door of professional maidenship, having repeatedly crashed and burned at single digit prices and handily beaten by 26 lengths off the recent layoff. Blinkers off did no good, so blinkers return on, plus a jockey change. Toss. #7 ONE FOR NOTHING, at 0-for-13 and poor human connections is one of those "auto-toss" types mentioned up above. #1 ARMY COMMANDER and #4 ANZEAU both have 0-for jockeys on call here, the latter refusing to break last out. Not a ringing endorsement, and both would really need a "last horse standing" scenario to develop to have a chance.
With our "trash" out of the way, we can move onto the meat of our ticket, the "A" list contenders. #8 TEN TEQUILAS moved up somewhat on a "wet-fast" strip last out and was getting ample support at the windows here so word was out. Only questions are did the wet-fast strip move him up, or is this a horse on the move? I felt there to be enough upside to consider, but still felt that 9/2 was a little light to play straight up.
My pick: #6 SHINING SON. At first glance, the second half of O'Neill's uncoupled entry is a tough read, as those 6 1/2F downhill turfers can be very fickle. Considering the wide trip from Post 11, and the wagering support (5-1) last out, a change in karma, including a drop in class from statebred specials to maiden claimers could be inevitable here. Blinkers go on and despite the J/T stats, O'Neill puts Gutierrez on a good one every now and then. He was in the 5-1/6-1 neighborhood for most of the betting, and in that price range in this field, I will bite.
Now the race (note, no head-on available, so I'll do the best I can):
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/saframe1.jpg
Good start for all except Anzeau (#4), the same horse that dwelt last out. He broke better, but as you see, he will spot the field a large margin shortly.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/saframe2.jpg
With a better post this time, Shining Son (#6) is able to break well for position, while Tizaplayer (#10) is hung out wide, others not letting him go. As you will see, this loss of ground and a subsequent duel will be that one's undoing.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/saframe3.jpg
Real Deal Appeal (#9) is able to move up and begins to duel with Tizaplayer, while Gutierrez takes back on Shining Son, sitting a good pocket through 22.11 early fractions. Already, this field is beginning to string out somewhat. The race remains virtually unchanged until...
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/saframe4.jpg
...the midpoint on the turn and a 45.47 half, when Shining Son gets angled out and given his cue to challenge. Tizaplayer and Real Deal Appeal are still in it, but the early events are about to take their toll. Look at the Trakus, and how spread out this field has gotten. A classic case of "haves" feasting on several "have nots" here.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/saframe5.jpg
Shining Son has finally worn down the frontrunners, although Tizaplayer is fighting gamely on the inside. Real Deal Appeal is now retreating, along with the rest of this field, including Ten Tequilas (#8) the wise-guy horse on the tote that had improved over the wet-fast last out. The Trakus "chiclets" are disappearing from view, the field, as a friend of mine loves to put it, "is strung out from here to Canarsie!"
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/saframe6.jpg
Victory! Shining Son drawing away with every stride. It's hard to see with the crop job on the video, but the Trakus chiclets are now down to 4, an official 20 1/4 length gap from 1st to 10th.
Lessons learned:
1) Give most second time starters the benefit of the doubt. Shining Son laid an egg on the downhill turf sprint last out and had real excuses. A surface/distance switch, an equipment change, a jockey change, a class drop and improved post position are more than enough reasons to forecast improvement.
2) Inexperienced horses breaking wide are poor risks at short prices. Looking at the Trakus data on SA's website, Tizaplayer's trip isn't as bad as it appears, but he had to run harder than he probably was comfortable doing to run the race that he did. With a better post draw, Tizaplayer potentially runs a more relaxed race, but at 9/5 in this large field, he was an unacceptable underlay.
3) Reserve judgment on horses receiving support off a previous good effort when it was over a wet surface. Ten Tequilas sucked a bunch of players into his wet-fast race and the subsequent improvement over the debut. In fact, the horse was in the 3-1/4-1 neighborhood for part of the wagering before petering out to 9/2. Could he have duplicated that race over a fast strip on Sunday? Absolutely, but in my estimation, I needed more than 9/2 to play.
I've reported. You decide! :)