Interesting stat on Pletcher.

[TheEdge07]

Per Jerry Brown

The state of Kentucky changed labs in 2010.Pletcher at Churchill last 3 years

2010-21 for 89

2011-6 for 60

2012-0 for 36.

Coincendence maybe.

[Stillriledup]

Per Jerry Brown

The state of Kentucky changed labs in 2010.Pletcher at Churchill last 3 years

2010-21 for 89

2011-6 for 60

2012-0 for 36.

Coincendence maybe.

6 for his last 96. That's hard to accomplish for a barn like his with so many expensive prospects...its not like he's training 5k claimers, a large majority of his horses are 'runners' hard to believe such a weak strike rate.

[lamboguy]

right now in Parx, there are 20 different trainers with positive tests of riboxin, which is a muscle relaxer. purses are supposed to be confiscated.

in kentucky there is probably test for something that Pletcher uses that makes his horses go. one thing that i have learned in this drug game is that when the horses are used to getting a substance, they won't run any good when you take that stuff away from them. that is why some trainers can't be claimed from.

[Stillriledup]

right now in Parx, there are 20 different trainers with positive tests of riboxin, which is a muscle relaxer. purses are supposed to be confiscated.

in kentucky there is probably test for something that Pletcher uses that makes his horses go. one thing that i have learned in this drug game is that when the horses are used to getting a substance, they won't run any good when you take that stuff away from them. that is why some trainers can't be claimed from.

Its amazing to me that the 'usual suspects' all claim innocence and yet, their fellow horseman won't touch these supposedly 'clean' runners with a 10 foot pole at the claim box. That speaks volumes.

[CincyHorseplayer]

There is all kinds of weirdness that happens at Churchill Downs and I think Pletcher is about the least interesting of it.I don't know if it's overconsciousness,dope,fixes,or what,but horses don't run in predictable manners that their PP's would suggest at CD.Either everybody gets collectively stupid there or something sinister happens.Maybe a little of both.Races with 4 E8's go to horses that get leads on the turf and wire it.Nothing closers put up lifetime efforts 20 points above their top speed figure.I remember Beyer talking about the crooks during Derby week.I'm starting to believe him.I've been pretty solid at Churchill but there is some nastiness in play definitely.

[JustRalph]

Those stats are astounding when taken in a broad context

Thanks for posting them

[castaway01]

Those stats are astounding when taken in a broad context

Thanks for posting them

Totally agree, thanks. Huge change in Pletcher's win percentage, plus his horses are dead in the Derby future pools. Hey, in reality, if you're tossing his CD horses while others are betting him because of the name, you'll do well. Regardless of what the cause behind it is, this is meaningful stuff.

(Just wanted to add that the stats are accurate. I've got him at 5 for 93 if you toss 4 1/2 furlong races, so he's winning at 6 percent when he usually wins at, what, 30 percent?)

[Fager Fan]

There is all kinds of weirdness that happens at Churchill Downs and I think Pletcher is about the least interesting of it.I don't know if it's overconsciousness,dope,fixes,or what,but horses don't run in predictable manners that their PP's would suggest at CD.Either everybody gets collectively stupid there or something sinister happens.Maybe a little of both.Races with 4 E8's go to horses that get leads on the turf and wire it.Nothing closers put up lifetime efforts 20 points above their top speed figure.I remember Beyer talking about the crooks during Derby week.I'm starting to believe him.I've been pretty solid at Churchill but there is some nastiness in play definitely.

I don't know if drugs have anything to do with the weirdness. Churchill was always considered a quirky surface that some horses didn't like. As we've seen turf and synth horses race over it the past 5 or so years, it's easy to see there's something about the surface that makes it attractive to synth and turf horses. Wise Dan and others have their lone dirt wins at Churchill but don't find dirt to their liking anywhere else. Then you'll find that certain dirt horses have had their worst races at Churchill.

[BIG49010]

I have heard several horseman complain about CD's surfaces at the downs and Fairgrounds. CD wants to be in the casino business, and not the race track business. After the derby, I wouldn't be surprised if fields at CD were down by 30%.

[PhantomOnTour]

Wonder how he does at Kee

[rastajenk]

Dunno, but he just won the Bourbonette this w/e at Turfway.

[classhandicapper]

Wonder how he does at Kee

Someone else asked that on the TG board.

[horses4courses]

Pletcher has put over a few early-win type 2yos at KEE.
Not as many as Wesley Ward, though, and they seldom turn out to be any good.

In fact, there are really only 3 trainers to consider at Keeneland with 2yos.
Ward is king - followed by Pletcher and Asmussen.

[tzipi]

Wonder how he does at Kee

Last meet he was 7-41 at Keeneland.

[ten2oneormore]

I would guess that he does just as well at KEE as he does normally because he only has so many horses in his barn that run well on synth so he aims them there more so than he does his dirt horses to Churchill.

[JustRalph]

Dunno, but he just won the Bourbonette this w/e at Turfway.

I actually bet that one.......glad I didn't see this thread first :lol:


I have a feeling Churchill might have more prying eyes or better Security than TPX?

Those stats are incredible though.

[rastajenk]

Prying eyes or better security ( :D ) got nothing to do with a new lab, like the OP suggests.

[MightBeSosa]

If the racing isn't weird they're not doing it right.

[chadk66]

those are some strange statistics. But as a former trainer sometimes these things can be explained. One winter I trained down south. Had a ton of two year olds and only about ten older horses. The older horses only ran mediocre all winter. But they had came off a few months layoff and it was a track I had never been to. So sometimes things like that happen. But then come spring I returned to MN with horses I thought should be dead ready. But they weren't shedding out even though they had been dewormed a couple of times. The first ten or so I ran performed very poorly. At that point I knew something was up. We pulled blood on the whole barn and found nothing peculiar. Then the vet and I had a long discussion and realized that this had to do with the shedding issue. So we decided to run a blood test on the barn again but this time testing for thyroid deficiency. They all came back thyroid deficient. Turns out the hay we were feeding down south was lacking some very importing nutrients/minerals. So I put them all on a thyroid supplement to allow the new feed to take ahold. They immediately started to run to form. When your thyroid deficient you feel cold all the time, thus the lack of shedding of the hair. So back to Pletcher. Something like this could have occured or something similar. Not saying it did but it's possible. Takes awhile to rectify things.

[TheEdge07]

I have a gut feeling Verazzano will be scratch pending his next workout.

[jahura2]

Pletcher at Keeneland going back to Spring 2011 through yesterday of the current meet.
98 starts
23 wins
10 Place
12 show

23% win

[cnollfan]

I have a gut feeling Verazzano will be scratch pending his next workout.

Edge,

Two days ago I told a couple friends I had the same gut feeling!

cnollfan

[Valuist]

Edge,

Two days ago I told a couple friends I had the same gut feeling!

cnollfan

Me too. Uncle Mo 2.0?

What's Pletcher's Derby record? Something like 1 for 30, and A LOT of those 30 were well bet.

[TheEdge07]

Pletcher at Keeneland going back to Spring 2011 through yesterday of the current meet.
98 starts
23 wins
10 Place
12 show

23% win

My stat was referring to Churchill Downs.Louisville and Kentucky are two totally different ballgames when it comes to horse racing.

[Leparoux]

I have heard several horseman complain about CD's surfaces at the downs and Fairgrounds. CD wants to be in the casino business, and not the race track business. After the derby, I wouldn't be surprised if fields at CD were down by 30%.
I highly doubt Churchill would have added a month of racing in September if they weren't interested in race track business. Fields down by 30%??? No way.

[depalma113]

I have a gut feeling Verazzano will be scratch pending his next workout.

Not a chance.

[TheEdge07]

Not a chance.

I know he has a bum ankle.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Not a chance.

yeah no precedent

[depalma113]

I know he has a bum ankle.
You're full of it.

[TheEdge07]

You're full of it.

You do.realize hes had issues since 2.Also he grabbed a quarter in the Tampa Derby along with having pinfiring procedure performed at 2.Ill pass thanks along with.the 1 1/4.

[CincyHorseplayer]

You do.realize hes had issues since 2.Also he grabbed a quarter in the Tampa Derby along with having pinfiring procedure performed at 2.Ill pass thanks along with.the 1 1/4.

I'm only using him on saver tickets in the win spot,for the same reasons you have,foot issues plus mile breeding on 1 side,stamina on the other,makes it a possible win at underlay price,but definitely not smart nor sexy,same with Goldcents,but much more horribly bred for distance.Orb is my not a shocker pick,will be midpack,with plenty of stamina on both sides,and wasn't asked to run much in the Florida Derby.Normandy Invasion with the right run style as having some value,albeit poorly bred as Goldcents for distance,and to a far lesser extent Itsmyluckyday,fast enough,distance challenged.My wiseguy horse is Palace Malice,bred impeccably for distance,they have tinkered with how this guy runs and have lost each time.He gets one run in derby and keeps on going in the stretch.

[iceknight]

Pletcher to speak to media today?

https://twitter.com/DerbyMedia/status/328131344825724928

[Tom]

Any mention of three vets conferring yet?

[TheEdge07]

Rumored for weeks bad left front foot..Again just rumor:rolleyes:

[holmmd]

Horse Message
Horse name Verrazano
Notes 2013 Derby Contender
Activity type Workout
Activity date 04-27-2013
Track Churchill Downs
Surface Dirt
Distance 5 Furlongs
Workout type Breezing
Workout time 0:59.40
Track condition Fast

not too shabby for a bad front foot

[holmmd]

will be watching pletcher's Derby Trial's entries today.

[Wiley]

Orb is my not a shocker pick,will be midpack,with plenty of stamina on both sides,and wasn't asked to run much in the Florida Derby.Normandy Invasion with the right run style as having some value,albeit poorly bred as Goldcents for distance,and to a far lesser extent Itsmyluckyday,fast enough,distance challenged.My wiseguy horse is Palace Malice,bred impeccably for distance,they have tinkered with how this guy runs and have lost each time.He gets one run in derby and keeps on going in the stretch.
HRTV reports that Palace Malice might work in blinkers and run in them in the Derby, a bad sign to me, if they haven't got it figured out by now the Derby is not a good place for a learning experience. I think Pletcher ran another one a few years back first time blinkers, did not work out well, Cowtown, Stay Thirsty? maybe. Though Palace Malice has looked nice on the track, full of himself and agree with his right on breeding for the Derby.

Orb apparently gets pretty worked up before races so something to watch, did not effect him in the FOY or FD but the commotion for the Derby will be at another level for him, like him and would be nice to see Shug win one.

[CincyHorseplayer]

HRTV reports that Palace Malice might work in blinkers and run in them in the Derby, a bad sign to me, if they haven't got it figured out by now the Derby is not a good place for a learning experience. I think Pletcher ran another one a few years back first time blinkers, did not work out well, Cowtown, Stay Thirsty? maybe. Though Palace Malice has looked nice on the track, full of himself and agree with his right on breeding for the Derby.

Orb apparently gets pretty worked up before races so something to watch, did not effect him in the FOY or FD but the commotion for the Derby will be at another level for him, like him and would be nice to see Shug win one.

Yeah I'm not getting what they are trying to do with this horse.I'll have to watch some replays this week because charts aren't telling me everything.Is this horse so green they keep tinkering with him,wanting him to grow up on a dime?It just seems like to me,he has more to offer and at a price.

Orb,with the worked up habits,that doesn't get me in a lather unless it directly translates to gate issues.In fact I like a little obstinance that wants to dominate!

Good to yack at ya man!

[holmmd]

well, pletcher just finished 1-2 in the derby trial. guess i can't toss his oaks and derby horses after all.

[cj]

Maybe casino can request we lock this thread now.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Maybe casino can request we lock this thread now.

Man I hope I wasn't a contributor to that CJ.I know I have been spewing derby analysis unnanounced here and there.I can't help it!

[cj]

Man I hope I wasn't a contributor to that CJ.I know I have been spewing derby analysis unnanounced here and there.I can't help it!

No, not at all.