jeebus1083
03-22-2013, 01:07 PM
One should look no further than Race 10 at Delta last night, a $10k maiden claiming slobberknocker. And yes, this was one helluva slobberknocker, leg #2 of what would turn out to be the end of my Pick 4 wager. My thought process handicapping this race was that the majority of the field was terrible, a pretty standard assessment for most cheap maiden claiming races. Here, I tend to back horses that are relatively lightly raced, any new faces to the bunch and sometimes if the conditions permit, a first time starter who has yet to do wrong in their career. In short, I will generally let the 0-for-14, 0-for-18 and 0-for-22 types beat me, as those types offer little to no present and future promise or value.
There was no one horse to stand out here from the rest, which made a five-horse spread a sensible compromise. For the record, the spread went 4-5-7-8-9. #9 Mission of Mine was making career start #4, but had a ton of early speed, albeit those races were from the rail. The 9 hole at DeD going 6 1/2 is always tough to overcome, but figured that if this one showed up, the post wouldn't matter, and Mission of Mine would clear. This was my first mistake. More on that later.
As for the others, #4 Spanish Blade was a first-time starter from a poor percentage barn at 20-1 ML. I probably wasted a slot in the Pick 4 by using this one, but the field as bad as it was, I felt that I had to reach. #5 Easytoauthenticate was 0-for-7, yet lightly raced. Since the December layoff, the horse began showing signs that perhaps he was finally understanding what the game was about, showing decent speed first off the bench and following that up with 2nd and 3rd finishes. #7 Simply Heath was 0-for-8 with several gaps, but nearly won last out on the lead going 2nd off the layoff. Some of those EvD efforts from August '12 seemed excusable (bad class, off track, etc). #8 High Bag Cascade was 0-for-3, 3rd off layoff and made up ground going shorter. He didn't look like a total lost cause.
Horses such as #1 Laurent de Var (0-for-18), #2 Royalee Bred (0-for-14, 1% trainer in 2012-13), #3 Art Shift (0-for-8, no form), and #6 Rebel Rocket (0-for-22) were easy auto-tosses, while #10 Text Me Collect, another horse with speed, was a short-price toss based on the fact that I didn't think he was going to clear from the 10 hole.
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=DED&race=10&date=2013-03-21
Here's how the race went down:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/Frame1.jpg
Right at the break, Mission of Mine (#9) is in an unfamiliar spot: hung wide, and unable to clear, as the rest of the field is hellbent for leather. Having drawn the #1 post in his last three outs, his jockey was able to use that to his advantage, and subsequently displayed strong speed. Here, I expected the horse to do something he had never done before, and at short odds over this bullring, I probably should have discounted his chances.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/Frame2.jpg
Entering the turn, #10 Text Me Collect is full of momentum, yet bolts roughly 7-8 wide. The #9, unable to clear, is toward the rear of the field, unable to establish the needed early control. Then...
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/Frame3.jpg
...#3 Art Shift drifts wide, carrying out, and subsequently knocking the #9 off-stride, effectively ending any and all chance this horse had. #10 is still widest of all, yet moving. With the favorite out of contention, and the 2nd choice losing that ground, the complexion of the race completely changed.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/frame45.jpg
A three-way duel between #10 (still about 4 wide), #7 and #5 through 23.39 and 47.75 have set the table. The #2 Royalee Bred, having benefited from a decent post, was well behind early, but has moved up, and is sitting a perfect trip.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/frame6.jpg
Coming off the turn, the speed is giving way, yet the #10 is still hanging in. #2 is coming 5 wide, but has something in the tank. The field is bunching up, something that characterizes bad fields running out of gas.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/frame7.jpg
The #2 swooped late to win at 32-1, and a cavalry bunched up, with 2nd through 7th covered by roughly 2 lengths. The #10, with that nightmarish widest of all speed trip, somehow hung on for the place, while #5 Easytoauthenticate, also on that pace, hung on for the show. 3/4 mile in 1:15.64 and a finish of 1:22.81 for 6 1/2 panels shows a race that completely collapsed, setting it up for the longshot. Basically, the race became sort of a "last horse standing" contest, and #2 was in the right place and race at the right time.
Lessons learned?
Handicap for "change". I expected the speed to run as is, without regard to the track. If I handicap for "change" it might have opened my eyes to others, or narrowed my picks further.
Short prices are dangerous to take in these cheap races.
It's also dangerous to take horses like an 0-for-14 seriously. Even through reviewing this race, I still could not make a solid case for him without the ALL button.
Such is the nature of cheap slobberknocker races. On many occasions, anything goes.
Thoughts?
There was no one horse to stand out here from the rest, which made a five-horse spread a sensible compromise. For the record, the spread went 4-5-7-8-9. #9 Mission of Mine was making career start #4, but had a ton of early speed, albeit those races were from the rail. The 9 hole at DeD going 6 1/2 is always tough to overcome, but figured that if this one showed up, the post wouldn't matter, and Mission of Mine would clear. This was my first mistake. More on that later.
As for the others, #4 Spanish Blade was a first-time starter from a poor percentage barn at 20-1 ML. I probably wasted a slot in the Pick 4 by using this one, but the field as bad as it was, I felt that I had to reach. #5 Easytoauthenticate was 0-for-7, yet lightly raced. Since the December layoff, the horse began showing signs that perhaps he was finally understanding what the game was about, showing decent speed first off the bench and following that up with 2nd and 3rd finishes. #7 Simply Heath was 0-for-8 with several gaps, but nearly won last out on the lead going 2nd off the layoff. Some of those EvD efforts from August '12 seemed excusable (bad class, off track, etc). #8 High Bag Cascade was 0-for-3, 3rd off layoff and made up ground going shorter. He didn't look like a total lost cause.
Horses such as #1 Laurent de Var (0-for-18), #2 Royalee Bred (0-for-14, 1% trainer in 2012-13), #3 Art Shift (0-for-8, no form), and #6 Rebel Rocket (0-for-22) were easy auto-tosses, while #10 Text Me Collect, another horse with speed, was a short-price toss based on the fact that I didn't think he was going to clear from the 10 hole.
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=DED&race=10&date=2013-03-21
Here's how the race went down:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/Frame1.jpg
Right at the break, Mission of Mine (#9) is in an unfamiliar spot: hung wide, and unable to clear, as the rest of the field is hellbent for leather. Having drawn the #1 post in his last three outs, his jockey was able to use that to his advantage, and subsequently displayed strong speed. Here, I expected the horse to do something he had never done before, and at short odds over this bullring, I probably should have discounted his chances.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/Frame2.jpg
Entering the turn, #10 Text Me Collect is full of momentum, yet bolts roughly 7-8 wide. The #9, unable to clear, is toward the rear of the field, unable to establish the needed early control. Then...
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/Frame3.jpg
...#3 Art Shift drifts wide, carrying out, and subsequently knocking the #9 off-stride, effectively ending any and all chance this horse had. #10 is still widest of all, yet moving. With the favorite out of contention, and the 2nd choice losing that ground, the complexion of the race completely changed.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/frame45.jpg
A three-way duel between #10 (still about 4 wide), #7 and #5 through 23.39 and 47.75 have set the table. The #2 Royalee Bred, having benefited from a decent post, was well behind early, but has moved up, and is sitting a perfect trip.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/frame6.jpg
Coming off the turn, the speed is giving way, yet the #10 is still hanging in. #2 is coming 5 wide, but has something in the tank. The field is bunching up, something that characterizes bad fields running out of gas.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/bulltp55/frame7.jpg
The #2 swooped late to win at 32-1, and a cavalry bunched up, with 2nd through 7th covered by roughly 2 lengths. The #10, with that nightmarish widest of all speed trip, somehow hung on for the place, while #5 Easytoauthenticate, also on that pace, hung on for the show. 3/4 mile in 1:15.64 and a finish of 1:22.81 for 6 1/2 panels shows a race that completely collapsed, setting it up for the longshot. Basically, the race became sort of a "last horse standing" contest, and #2 was in the right place and race at the right time.
Lessons learned?
Handicap for "change". I expected the speed to run as is, without regard to the track. If I handicap for "change" it might have opened my eyes to others, or narrowed my picks further.
Short prices are dangerous to take in these cheap races.
It's also dangerous to take horses like an 0-for-14 seriously. Even through reviewing this race, I still could not make a solid case for him without the ALL button.
Such is the nature of cheap slobberknocker races. On many occasions, anything goes.
Thoughts?