Picking longshots made simple

[dav4463]

First, throw out the top four Last Race Speed figure horses. Next, throw out the top four public choices. (sometimes it is the same four horses)

Handicap what is left. Play two horses to win if you can find any indication that they are capable of winning.

Handicap your tossed horses. Pick three of them and play them on top of your longshots.


Note: you will have better success if you narrow down your races to no more than three or four races on a ten race card.....not all races are longshot friendly.

What I do is identify the best three favorites on the card that I do not feel comfortable trying to beat. That leaves seven races (if a ten race card) to find three or four playable races.

[lsosa54]

David: I'm sure there are various ways to find value with your approach being one of them. What if I gave you the following on yesterday's 7th at SAX?


I'm giving you the top 4 last race figs plus the last 3 figs for each horse. The 5th best last was a 70, so the top 4 last had a nice separation.

I made it home from a long week of work for the last 2 races. I won't add any other handicapping info (class of last race, jockey, trainer, turf record, layoff, etc.) - it could help or hurt your final decision.

SA 03/22/2013 R7 4:03 12.0f Turf 26 2 OC 40k/N1X 4+

ML Odds:

1 Toruk Makto 4-1 75 73 70

2 Saint Loup 6-5 76 75 70

3 Rintoo 8-1 74 76 70

7 Lime Rickey 3-1 75 72 79



Final Odds:

1 Toruk Makto 6.8 - 1 75 73 70

2 Saint Loup 0.7 - 1 76 75 70

3 Rintoo 15.5 -1 74 76 70

7 Lime Rickey 3-1 75 72 79



Lou

[Capper Al]

Interesting. I've be working at flagging horses as


Top Pick

Contender

Middle of the road
longshot
eliminate at any price
A longshot is playable at natural or random odds, but a top pick going off at odds is preferred to a longshot.

[dav4463]

David: I'm sure there are various ways to find value with your approach being one of them. What if I gave you the following on yesterday's 7th at SAX?


I'm giving you the top 4 last race figs plus the last 3 figs for each horse. The 5th best last was a 70, so the top 4 last had a nice separation.

I made it home from a long week of work for the last 2 races. I won't add any other handicapping info (class of last race, jockey, trainer, turf record, layoff, etc.) - it could help or hurt your final decision.

SA 03/22/2013 R7 4:03 12.0f Turf 26 2 OC 40k/N1X 4+

ML Odds:

1 Toruk Makto 4-1 75 73 70

2 Saint Loup 6-5 76 75 70

3 Rintoo 8-1 74 76 70

7 Lime Rickey 3-1 75 72 79



Final Odds:

1 Toruk Makto 6.8 - 1 75 73 70

2 Saint Loup 0.7 - 1 76 75 70

3 Rintoo 15.5 -1 74 76 70

7 Lime Rickey 3-1 75 72 79



Lou






With the big separation, I would more than likely pass the race.


This gives me an idea though. It is only an eight horse field. In a smaller field, you could eliminate only the last three speed figures and top three morning line and make a strong case for the winner.

Noticing this after the fact though!

[salty]

on route races just put $2 to win on two of the three inside horses at good odds.

ex

1 10-1
2 2-1
3 8-1
4 4-1
5 5-1
6 10-1
7 20-1
8 15-1

put $2 on the 1 and 3

ex from tonight, picking a random track Penn national, just looking at the result charts to make this example, haven't seen the results previously.

r1 miss but the 4 at 20-1 did come in second

r2 miss

r3 not enough starters but the 1 did win at over 3-1 which made it a longshot

r4 miss

r5 not enough starters but the three hits 2nd at 14-1

r6 3 wins at 46-1 paying 94.40 - 35.60 - 11.60

r7 not enough starters

r8 miss

r9 miss

6 playable races

1 winner

up $70.40

not going to hit a 40+ shot all the time but i think its an ok play for just a couple dollars a race if you just want to gamble.

[Robert Goren]

A strong track bias will produce some long shot winners.

It take certain amount of courage to bet a horse that figure except on one angle and may have beaten only a horse or 2 in last 4 or five races. I have to convince myself that it is the only horse that can win, not just that it has chance at the odds or I will end up on some other horse.

[Greyfox]

First, throw out the top four Last Race Speed figure horses. Next, throw out the top four public choices. (sometimes it is the same four horses)

Handicap what is left. Play two horses to win if you can find any indication that they are capable of winning.

.

Looks like a fast path to the poorhouse.

[mistergee]

sometimes when I see the super payoffs at tracks like TP or DED I contemplate throwing out the top 3 faves and boxing the rest in dime supers blindly???

[Dave Schwartz]

First, throw out the top four Last Race Speed figure horses. Next, throw out the top four public choices. (sometimes it is the same four horses)

Handicap what is left. Play two horses to win if you can find any indication that they are capable of winning.

Personally, I LOVE this approach (or something similar) as a starting point.

:ThmbUp:

[dav4463]

Looks like a fast path to the poorhouse.


Give it a try. You will be surprised how many horses outside the obvious group have a chance to win. You just have to be brave enough to play against the obvious horses. Don't look for a play in every race. Concentrate on one to four races on a card that has a horse or two that jump off the page as a legit contender.

Play the larger fields. If eight or less horses....maybe take a shot like the example above and throw out three horses in each group instead of four. I haven't tried that yet, but it worked in the above example!

[raybo]

sometimes when I see the super payoffs at tracks like TP or DED I contemplate throwing out the top 3 faves and boxing the rest in dime supers blindly???

On the right days, this could be profitable! Of course, picking the right days would be the hard part.

[JustRalph]

Years ago at Sam Houston when playing superfecta tickets I would as a rule put the 1-4 horses in the 3rd and 4th slots as a rule no matter the odds. They seemed to always be on the board in routes. It worked well enough that I stuck with it for a while.

[acorn54]

here is how the op's idea has done so far this year at all t-bred tracks
with a few good restraints


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 5077.20 5099.60 4626.80
Bet -6084.00 -6084.00 -6084.00
Gain -1006.80 -984.40 -1457.20

Wins 181 461 771
Plays 3042 3042 3042
PCT .0595 .1515 .2535

ROI 0.8345 0.8382 0.7605
Avg Mut 28.05 11.06 6.00

[Some_One]

Can you show a split between mdn and non mdn and maybe all but with field size 9 or higher?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Reaching an advanced state of systems peddlers.Let me not think about a race as an organic living entity,but a reality I can put into a shoebox and bet the percentages,no matter how diminutive.Does anybody even enjoy thinking about this game anymore?

[acorn54]

here is the field size tabulation for all races this year that fit the criteria of your angle


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 5077.20 5099.60 4626.80
Bet -6084.00 -6084.00 -6084.00
Gain -1006.80 -984.40 -1457.20

Wins 181 461 771
Plays 3042 3042 3042
PCT .0595 .1515 .2535

ROI 0.8345 0.8382 0.7605
Avg Mut 28.05 11.06 6.00


By: Field Size

Field Size Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
2 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
3 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
4 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
5 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
6 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
7 -103.20 1180.00 0.9125 43 590 .0729 1.2249
8 -400.80 1414.00 0.7165 37 707 .0523 0.8796
9 -264.60 1268.00 0.7913 38 634 .0599 1.0073
10 -10.80 1318.00 0.9918 42 659 .0637 1.0711
11 -32.00 478.00 0.9331 12 239 .0502 0.8438
12 -175.80 386.00 0.5446 8 193 .0415 0.6966
13 -7.60 28.00 0.7286 1 14 .0714 1.2005
14 -12.00 12.00 0.0000 0 6 .0000 0.0000



and based on class


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 5077.20 5099.60 4626.80
Bet -6084.00 -6084.00 -6084.00
Gain -1006.80 -984.40 -1457.20

Wins 181 461 771
Plays 3042 3042 3042
PCT .0595 .1515 .2535

ROI 0.8345 0.8382 0.7605
Avg Mut 28.05 11.06 6.00


By: Class Descriptor

Class Descriptor Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
1 -714.60 4360.00 0.8361 130 2180 .0596 1.0022 C (claiming)
2 -9.60 74.00 0.8703 2 37 .0541 0.9085 CO (Claiming Optional)
3 -118.40 312.00 0.6205 8 156 .0513 0.8619 AO (Allowance Optional Claiming)
4 -108.60 672.00 0.8384 18 336 .0536 0.9004 M (Maiden Claiming)
5 -80.00 80.00 0.0000 0 40 .0000 0.0000 S (Maiden Special Weight)
6 70.60 272.00 1.2596 13 136 .0956 1.6065 A (Allowance)
7 -22.00 22.00 0.0000 0 11 .0000 0.0000 G (Graded Stakes)
8 -25.40 146.00 0.8260 3 73 .0411 0.6907 N (Non Graded Stakes)
9 9.20 138.00 1.0667 7 69 .1014 1.7050 R (Starter Allowance)
10 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000 T (Overnight Handicap

[acorn54]

my bad didn't come out too clear
here is an attachment of the data

[dav4463]

I don't understand the data. How do you decide which horses to bet for the study?

[acorn54]

well-first the data represents as the original poster suggests- all horses that are not among the top four in last race bris fig.
secondly they must be going off at post time at 6-1 or higher, this is the best replication i can do of not being among the first three betting choices in the betting at post time.
the results this year are that you would lose about 17 cents of each wagered dollar. about the same as blindly betting the favorites in the race. however the op said to "handicap the horses that fit his criteria, so one may find some interesting areas to investigate.
as far as class of race only the claiming category has a large enough sample to have any credence imo, but i am far from being a statistical expert.

[dav4463]

I don't see how to quantify it that way...

For example, I start looking at a race. If it is a ten horse field; I start by eliminating the four top m/l choices. (I don't use post time odds....I use the morning line. Many times my play is a horse that is bet down from their morning line)... Then I circle the four best last race speed figures and also eliminate them.

Let's say that knocks out five horses.

I am left with only five horses. I handicap them down to two horses.

Then the key is to compare those two horses to the top two or three and only bet if you can make a "legitimate" case for one or both to win.

Most of the time, I pass because the top horses just look too strong for my picks.

However, many times one or both of my picks have the class or back speed to beat the top picks or have a good angle going for them that, in my opinion, makes them a threat.

Sometimes though, I can go through an entire card and not find a single play.

The key is to narrow it down to those who have a real shot.

[Some_One]

I don't think it's a terrible strategy, does carry a high degree of variance, but at places like Keeneland, it's probably a better move then reading the form, lol.