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View Full Version : Mr. Trifecta's Maywood Park Picks 3/21/13


precisionk
03-21-2013, 06:24 PM
As requested in the other thread, I have posted my own morning line with my top three contenders in each race. This is new for me to put on paper so I still need to find a better way to display this information and fine tune it. But there it is! This was a gigantic pain in the butt to put in the Odds line as it literally doubled the time handicapping tonight's card.


R1: #1-Odds On Contango

Tossing last. Draws rail against tougher here. Crushed field from the rail last time out. Should be tough to catch.

Mr. Trifecta's Odds Line

#1-Odds On Contango-7/5
#4-Up Town Lady-3/1
#6-Janet's Katy-3/1

R2: #5-Cyber Chicks

Shipping over to Balmoral. Hasn't ran on a dry track in her young career. Race is very wide open as this field is very weak. Has a shot and has some experience at the fairs. Crisler aboard.

Mr. Trifecta's Odds Line

#5-Cyber Chicks-6/1
#2-Rich Item-4/1
#4-Fox Valley Cibola-6/1

R3: #5-Party Cove

2nd time lasix will do nothing but help here. Nearly ripped the field and won at 50/1. Won't get that here. Rogers back aboard and ready to romp home.

Mr. Trifecta's Odds Line

#5-Party Cove-1/5
#1-Prince Ponder-9/2
#4-Baksidebar Nlounge-6/1

R4: #2-Another Burbon

Cash lasted two at the same level and showed some nice early speed. Nothing here in the way of early speed and should be able to get to the front early. Widger aboard and should be able to get this one to the front. Mr. Trifecta's Longshot of the Night!

Mr. Trifecta's Odds Line

#2-Another Burbon-7/2
#5-Reagan's Conquest-4/1
#6-Desiree BellaBella-6/1

R5: #7-Just Bcuz Ican

Made some nice 3Q moves last time especially being parked for a good portion of the mile. Draws a touch closer and has been very game to hang on here. Sutton sticks aboard and has been steadily improving since the layoff.

Mr. Trifecta's Odds Line

#7-Just Bcuz Ican-2/1
#5-Justine's Pride-3/1
#6-Repertoire-10/1

R6: #4-Apollonia

Scratched last time out sick. Gets some added rest and should be fresh for this start. Last time she was shipped, just missed the wire. Should be within a length or two from the lead. May get some value. Tim Curtin aboard.

Mr. Trifecta's Odds Line

#4-Apollonia-3/1
#6-Hazel May-4/1
#7-Starrs Flashy Babe-19/1

R7: #1-Prosper

Draws the rail after pushing out strongly last time out. Should get live cover from the 2 and expect another 3Q move to past the tiring 2. Very strong here.

Mr. Trifecta's Odds Line

#1-Prosper-7/5
#5-Justa Sweetheart-2/1
#7-Skyway Lena-6/1

R8: #2-Fancy Too

Draws a good post here and drive change to Warren is positive. Last time at this level, wired the field. Should be able to do the same here. Fairly weak field. Mr. Trifecta's Pick of the Night!

Mr. Trifecta's Odds Line

#2-Fancy Too-9/5
#4-Cee Cee's Delight-4/1
#7Satrdaynitesspecial-9/1

R9: #7-Our Miss Kristi

Fresh off the layoff. Qualifier was good at Balmoral. Can display some nice closing speed. Should be getting over quickly. Needs to save some in the tank down the stretch. Should improve here.

Mr. Trifecta's Odds Line

#7-Our Miss Krisi-4/1
#4 Stirling Bellagio-3/1
#1-Babyshoebuyer-5/1

R10: #2-River Tsunami

Draws another good post. Didn't fire last time out. Should be able to close on the inside. Needs a bit of a fast past early to get in good position. If he can get live cover to the stretch, could hit at a big price.

Mr. Trifecta's Odds Line

#2-River Tsunami-4/1
#5-Mandy Lou-6/1
#6-Timeless Artist-7/1

R11: #1-Darn Skippie

Draws the rail and and last time at this level of claiming NW, did win easily. Hasn't show much in the last few, but should have a much better trip against easier.

Mr. Trifecta's Odds Line

#1-Dark Skippie-3/1
#2-Sand Jake-5/1
#6-Park Bug-4/1

R12: #5-I Don't Rember

Went 5 wide and it was just too much ground to makeup. Likes to make a flying 3w move and rely on her closing speed to do well.

Mr. Trifecta's Odds Line

#5-I Don't Rember-8/5
#4-KB's TK-9/5
#7-Nashville Kitty-9/1

cecil127
03-21-2013, 09:17 PM
r11: 1/7/8 exacta box
bol:ThmbUp:

precisionk
03-22-2013, 12:29 AM
Interesting results, I marked those "Non-bet" if the top choice didn't reach Odds Line.

Results:

R1: 4,7,1Show $2.40 Non-bet

R2: Out

R3: 5,4,1 Win $3.00....$2.60....$2.10 $1 Exacta box 5,1,4......$11.90 $1 Trifecta box 5,1,4......$18.50

R4: 2,5,1 Win $8.60....$2.80....$2.20 $1 Exacta box 2,5,6......$13.80 Non-bet

R5: Scratched

R6: 2,8,4 Show $5.20

R7: Out Non-bet

R8: 6,2,1 Place $3.00....$3.60 Non-bet

R9: Out Non-bet

R10: 6,2,7 Place $7.80....$5.20 $1 Exacta box 2,5,6......$44.30

R11: Out

R12: Out Non-bet


Every Race: Win Rate 17%, Board Hit 50%, Wagered $154, Returned $100.10, ROI -35%
Bet when odds were matching or greater then odds line: Win Rate 20%, Board Hit 60%, Wagered $70, Returned $77.70, ROI 111%