Low hanging fruit

[Capper Al]

I love my number crunching and have some very complex formulas in my system. And then at times my pick will lose and a friend will say didn't you notice that horse dropping three classes in a claiming race? The embarrassing anwers is no. I got out of the habit of reading the past performances relying too much on my software's output. E=MC squared just doesn't get it all the time. Now I'm rethinking my app not to include complex formulas but simple handicapping ideas that have been used for decades. Paper and pencil handicappers used to know a lot of these racing facts or angles like if a horse is dropping to far for price he's probably not worth a wager. Any similar simple handicapping factors that you care to share? Have you found yourself over thinking class, pace, speed, running style to overlook the obvious low hanging fruit?

[bob60566]

I love my number crunching and have some very complex formulas in my system. And then at times my pick will lose and a friend will say didn't you notice that horse dropping three classes in a claiming race? The embarrassing anwers is no. I got out of the habit of reading the past performances relying too much on my software's output. E=MC squared just doesn't get it all the time. Now I'm rethinking my app not to include complex formulas but simple handicapping ideas that have been used for decades. Paper and pencil handicappers used to know a lot of these racing facts or angles like if a horse is dropping to far for price he's probably not worth a wager. Any similar simple handicapping factors that you care to share? Have you found yourself over thinking class, pace, speed, running style to overlook the obvious low hanging fruit?

No

[Overlay]

I wouldn't change my procedure (which is focused on calculating full-field fair odds). Even with seemingly low-hanging fruit, I would want to know whether it's hanging so low that it's not worth the risk of a wager.

[cj]

I love my number crunching and have some very complex formulas in my system. And then at times my pick will lose and a friend will say didn't you notice that horse dropping three classes in a claiming race? The embarrassing anwers is no. I got out of the habit of reading the past performances relying too much on my software's output. E=MC squared just doesn't get it all the time. Now I'm rethinking my app not to include complex formulas but simple handicapping ideas that have been used for decades. Paper and pencil handicappers used to know a lot of these racing facts or angles like if a horse is dropping to far for price he's probably not worth a wager. Any similar simple handicapping factors that you care to share? Have you found yourself over thinking class, pace, speed, running style to overlook the obvious low hanging fruit?

It is always easy to find reasons the winner won after the race. You really think betting a horse dropping three levels is a stand-alone winning angle?

[Capper Al]

It is always easy to find reasons the winner won after the race. You really think betting a horse dropping three levels is a stand-alone winning angle?

In a claiming race, I think it's a horse to consider to avoid

[jasperson]

Al, That is why I on my printout I print the class of the race and the class of each horse's last race. I then highlight the class droppers so I don't miss them.
Also I highlight horses that are picking up 5 lbs or more and those dropping 5 or more. In the comment line I highlight horses that have had trouble in their last race. I am surprised at the number of pencil and paper handicapper that miss these things.

[Capper Al]

No

Funny. LOL :=}

[lansdale]

I love my number crunching and have some very complex formulas in my system. And then at times my pick will lose and a friend will say didn't you notice that horse dropping three classes in a claiming race? The embarrassing anwers is no. I got out of the habit of reading the past performances relying too much on my software's output. E=MC squared just doesn't get it all the time. Now I'm rethinking my app not to include complex formulas but simple handicapping ideas that have been used for decades. Paper and pencil handicappers used to know a lot of these racing facts or angles like if a horse is dropping to far for price he's probably not worth a wager. Any similar simple handicapping factors that you care to share? Have you found yourself over thinking class, pace, speed, running style to overlook the obvious low hanging fruit?

Hi Al,

It should be obvious to you, as it is to nearly everyone on this site, that, if there ever was, there is not only no low-hanging fruit in this game, but nothing even halfway up the tree. The only remaining fruit, as it is in all profitable gambling, is at the very top of the tree, and available only to the best players.

It should also be obvious to you that any angle as simple as your friend's, to the extent it had any validity at all, was pounded into the red decades ago.
This is true (in all gambling) of anything simple or obvious. Many smart people have been thinking about all of these games for a long time.

If you have been a profitable player for the past three years, why are you listening to something so idiotic? Believe in the methods that have worked for you during that period of time and ignore variance and the random comments of unprofitable amateurs.

Cheers,

lansdale

[Capper Al]

Al, That is why I on my printout I print the class of the race and the class of each horse's last race. I then highlight the class droppers so I don't miss them.
Also I highlight horses that are picking up 5 lbs or more and those dropping 5 or more. In the comment line I highlight horses that have had trouble in their last race. I am surprised at the number of pencil and paper handicapper that miss these things.

I'm doing some of that by condition highlighting in excel. Can't really use days since last raced anymore. A graded winner in am Optional Claimer may be another one.

[Capper Al]

Hi Al,

It should be obvious to you, as it is to nearly everyone on this site, that, if there ever was, there is not only no low-hanging fruit in this game, but nothing even halfway up the tree. The only remaining fruit, as it is in all profitable gambling, is at the very top of the tree, and available only to the best players.

It should also be obvious to you that any angle as simple as your friend's, to the extent it had any validity at all, was pounded into the red decades ago.
This is true (in all gambling) of anything simple or obvious. Many smart people have been thinking about all of these games for a long time.

If you have been a profitable player for the past three years, why are you listening to something so idiotic? Believe in the methods that have worked for you during that period of time and ignore variance and the random comments of unprofitable amateurs.

Cheers,

lansdale

Why is because I know I'll go gang busters over complex handicapping formulas and ignore the obvious. Need to find a balanace.

[cj]

In a claiming race, I think it's a horse to consider to avoid

Yet, you said missing that fact was embarrassing. Why the contradiction? If you think it is a horse you should avoid, and that type wins once in a while, who cares?

If I start looking for reasons why I lost every race, I'd drive myself nuts.

[HUSKER55]

that all depends CJ, on some days it is a short trip...:D

[thaskalos]

I love my number crunching and have some very complex formulas in my system. And then at times my pick will lose and a friend will say didn't you notice that horse dropping three classes in a claiming race? The embarrassing anwers is no. I got out of the habit of reading the past performances relying too much on my software's output. E=MC squared just doesn't get it all the time. Now I'm rethinking my app not to include complex formulas but simple handicapping ideas that have been used for decades. Paper and pencil handicappers used to know a lot of these racing facts or angles like if a horse is dropping to far for price he's probably not worth a wager. Any similar simple handicapping factors that you care to share? Have you found yourself over thinking class, pace, speed, running style to overlook the obvious low hanging fruit?

In all my years playing this game, I have encountered only one handicapping approach that "gets it all the time"...and that approach is the practice of post-race handicapping. Post-race handicapping gets it all the time, because, as Cj already stated, it is so damned easy to make a case for any horse winning a race...once the race is over.

I don't claim to know everything, Al -- and you are welcomed to disagree with anything I say here -- but I would not go back to "angle plays" if I were you. There is a very valid reason why we traded the angle-type systems of the past for the more "complicated" methods that we use today; these simplistic systems of yesteryear don't work anymore...and it's very doubtful that they ever did.

Abandon the search for the method that "gets it all the time". This method doesn't exist. You are guaranteed to lose many more times than you will win...no matter what handicapping method you use -- and if you are betting exotics, then you will lose even more often.

This is the only sure thing in the game...:)

[NY BRED]

Horses dramatically rising or dropping in class can often be triggered by
owner instructions rather than trainer choice.Regardless, these are
eratic maneuvers that can be deciphered with such software as formulator
which can assist you in determining the success of claiming trainers.

One huge angle to never overlook is when a horse is reclaimed by
the trainer who lost the horse, especially when this horse is reclaimed
at a higher price or more competitive class level.

Horses claimed in consecutive races by different trainers should also be noted
as these trainers are noting their confidence in the fitness of the horse
regardless of the class level or running styles in previous races.

[Capper Al]

Yet, you said missing that fact was embarrassing. Why the contradiction? If you think it is a horse you should avoid, and that type wins once in a while, who cares?

If I start looking for reasons why I lost every race, I'd drive myself nuts.

Let's try this another way. For example, if I were a speed handicapper and my top speed horse was dropping 3 class levels in a claiming race I should either skip the race or bet on the second best speed figured horse who is in today's class level according to the angle.

[Capper Al]

In all my years playing this game, I have encountered only one handicapping approach that "gets it all the time"...and that approach is the practice of post-race handicapping. Post-race handicapping gets it all the time, because, as Cj already stated, it is so damned easy to make a case for any horse winning a race...once the race is over.

I don't claim to know everything, Al -- and you are welcomed to disagree with anything I say here -- but I would not go back to "angle plays" if I were you. There is a very valid reason why we traded the angle-type systems of the past for the more "complicated" methods that we use today; these simplistic systems of yesteryear don't work anymore...and it's very doubtful that they ever did.

Abandon the search for the method that "gets it all the time". This method doesn't exist. You are guaranteed to lose many more times than you will win...no matter what handicapping method you use -- and if you are betting exotics, then you will lose even more often.

This is the only sure thing in the game...:)

I agree with avoiding angle play for making selections. What I'm arguing here is using angles to eliminate selections or passing races made by number crunching.

[Capper Al]

Horses dramatically rising or dropping in class can often be triggered by
owner instructions rather than trainer choice.Regardless, these are
eratic maneuvers that can be deciphered with such software as formulator
which can assist you in determining the success of claiming trainers.

One huge angle to never overlook is when a horse is reclaimed by
the trainer who lost the horse, especially when this horse is reclaimed
at a higher price or more competitive class level.

Horses claimed in consecutive races by different trainers should also be noted
as these trainers are noting their confidence in the fitness of the horse
regardless of the class level or running styles in previous races.

These are the things to consider after number crunching.

[pondman]

There is plenty of fruit. It's not generic, and not available in every race condition. But it's there, and often obvious. You need to be more specific in your choice of track and level of play.

A drop in class, by itself, can signal a gem. A jump in class, by itself, can signal a gem. Both can offer a +40% confidence level depending where it's running. Likewise, it can also signal you to sit out. But it's not generic. Dropping 3 levels in a claiming race means nothing to me. I'd generally pass unless it was a lightly raced horse in a mc, at least where I play. Dropping in an allowance or MSW is significant to me and my style. I look at those closely.

The problem is if you are a ratings person and can't live without a number, you will often miss the type of horse I play. Because they'll look dreadful. You'd exclude my bets.

[dansan]

All my horse look dreadful im looking for something the nobody else looks at !

[Capper Al]

There is plenty of fruit. It's not generic, and not available in every race condition. But it's there, and often obvious. You need to be more specific in your choice of track and level of play.

A drop in class, by itself, can signal a gem. A jump in class, by itself, can signal a gem. Both can offer a +40% confidence level depending where it's running. Likewise, it can also signal you to sit out. But it's not generic. Dropping 3 levels in a claiming race means nothing to me. I'd generally pass unless it was a lightly raced horse in a mc, at least where I play. Dropping in an allowance or MSW is significant to me and my style. I look at those closely.

The problem is if you are a ratings person and can't live without a number, you will often miss the type of horse I play. Because they'll look dreadful. You'd exclude my bets.

The play is to use the ratings, but flag exception.