Sunland Derby 2013

[picojim]

1 1/16 Miles | 50 Derby points | 3 Year Olds | G3 STAKES | Purse: $800,000
Sunday March 24, 2013

1 Just Win Baby
2 Abraham
3 Stormdriver
4 Shakin It Up
5 Saint Prado
6 Dry Summer
7 Govenor Charlie
8 Mudflats
9 Show Some Magic


PPs here
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT+BOB/9999/summary.htm

Govenor Charlie should get a nice trip

[precocity]

going to go across on the 5 Saint Prado not to much :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

going to go across on the 5 Saint Prado not to much :ThmbUp:

I like that horses name.

Haven't gone over these horses, but Shakin it Up has good company lines

[Some_One]

I like that horses name.

Haven't gone over these horses, but Shakin it Up has good company lines

Aren't the Baffert horses really overbet in this race in prior years? Hometrack edge pushes the :6: on top for me, and :9: could be a fun one at 20-1+

[iceknight]

I think :4: and :6: Dry Summer could have a nice stretch battle, if the trip for :4: Shakin it up is good!

[sammy the sage]

Abraham...til a Midnite Lute offspring wins ONE at THIS distance...I consider it an outstanding play against....

[peeptoad]

Just Win Baby, Gov. Charlie, and Dry Summer for me. At the price I will probably just throw some money on the 1 though.

[Stillriledup]

Abraham...til a Midnite Lute offspring wins ONE at THIS distance...I consider it an outstanding play against....

Why the distain for Midnight Lute horses going 2 turns?

[iceknight]

Why the distain for Midnight Lute horses going 2 turns? Midnite Lute = great at 7f and sprint distances. Sounds similar to Teuflesberg offsprings being pushed into the Darby (Trinniberg 2012).

Source: Wikipedia and pedigreequery

[menifee]

Midnite Lute = great at 7f and sprint distances. Sounds similar to Teuflesberg offsprings being pushed into the Darby (Trinniberg 2012).

Source: Wikipedia and pedigreequery


The theory about Midnite Lute was that he was fine at two turns, but he had a throat problem and so they kept him limited to sprints. Don't know if you can right off his progeny going two turns.

[menifee]

The theory about Midnite Lute was that he was fine at two turns, but he had a throat problem and so they kept him limited to sprints. Don't know if you can right off his progeny going two turns.

"write off his progeny"

[johnhannibalsmith]

This is a pretty fun race. Locals with lottsa experience taking on shippers coming in fresh off a maiden win almost tells the story from top to bottom with only a couple of different profiles. Those couple that fit in between - aren't locals and have faced winners - are the two that I like the most.

The obvious one of the two is :4: Shakin It Up who probably warrants the bulk of the action with just a narrow defeat in the G3 Prevue on Holly Polly between him and three straight wins since adding blinkers in start number two. He's been punching on nicely late through the lane, which figures to be a big plus in this group, but it's hard to get too carried away since he's been punching at the tail end of one turn sprints, mainly seven-eighths, and he looks so much like a powerhouse late kicking sprinter that I'm almost leery that he's already discovered his niche. Of course, in March of his 3yo. season, he may be a one-turn sprinter at heart and still out-class and out-trip the others here and win with less than his best race.

The other one that fits the profile is the one that intrigues me because his form is just crappy enough that he's going to get ignored for the most part with all the fast maiden winners shipping in and the hometown heros getting the sentimental money.

:8: Mudflats is a horse I'm not too familiar with the history of, but it looks like the west coast based syndicate group LRF bought a piece of him after his maiden win at Aqueduct. After getting the "green" comment in his second career start, a mile effort against maidens at Belmont, they added blinkers for the Aqueduct start third time out, shortened to seven eighths, and ran a nice race to break his maiden - beating Elnaawi and Malachite, not a terrible pair to outrun in a maidenbreaker at AQU.

His first try versus winners for the new connections, he stretched out two turns over the inner in the G2 Jerome and ran a fairly lousy race. But hey, he's got a lot going on there - switching up trainers, surfaces, two-turn debut, and running into the likes of Vyjack for his first try out of the maiden ranks. Forgivable that he didn't fare too well there.

Then he ships out to O'Neill's stomping grounds for the San Vicente and runs a pretty good race. He's kind of neither here nor there throughout, just in behind the action up front, in a little bit of chaos, and churns his way through the race to run an even fifth behind the aforementioned likely favorite Shakin It Up. Visually, it wasn't a bad race at all in my opinion, and looks like he's really making some progress from race to race now facing winners.

Of course, he may just be a really average horse and on the merit of coming off of two "route" races and running improved races turning back to seven-eighths, he may just be a grinding one-turner. But he does kind of look like he may, I repeat MAY, be a very slow work in progress and set up just right for a big race in this spot.

I don't think that I'd jump through hoops to get my money down on him, but I can easily see him hitting double-digits on the tote board because he just really doesn't look that good on paper. He's certainly not the one that I would consider "most likely" to win, but he may end up being the one that I'd be most interested in betting if he's 12-1 or greater. I'm still doubtful that very many of these want any part of Shakin It Up, so if nothing else, he could be the double-digit compliment in exotics to that one's short priced readily apparent talent.

[menifee]

This is a pretty fun race. Locals with lottsa experience taking on shippers coming in fresh off a maiden win almost tells the story from top to bottom with only a couple of different profiles. Those couple that fit in between - aren't locals and have faced winners - are the two that I like the most.

The obvious one of the two is :4: Shakin It Up who probably warrants the bulk of the action with just a narrow defeat in the G3 Prevue on Holly Polly between him and three straight wins since adding blinkers in start number two. He's been punching on nicely late through the lane, which figures to be a big plus in this group, but it's hard to get too carried away since he's been punching at the tail end of one turn sprints, mainly seven-eighths, and he looks so much like a powerhouse late kicking sprinter that I'm almost leery that he's already discovered his niche. Of course, in March of his 3yo. season, he may be a one-turn sprinter at heart and still out-class and out-trip the others here and win with less than his best race.

The other one that fits the profile is the one that intrigues me because his form is just crappy enough that he's going to get ignored for the most part with all the fast maiden winners shipping in and the hometown heros getting the sentimental money.

:8: Mudflats is a horse I'm not too familiar with the history of, but it looks like the west coast based syndicate group LRF bought a piece of him after his maiden win at Aqueduct. After getting the "green" comment in his second career start, a mile effort against maidens at Belmont, they added blinkers for the Aqueduct start third time out, shortened to seven eighths, and ran a nice race to break his maiden - beating Elnaawi and Malachite, not a terrible pair to outrun in a maidenbreaker at AQU.

His first try versus winners for the new connections, he stretched out two turns over the inner in the G2 Jerome and ran a fairly lousy race. But hey, he's got a lot going on there - switching up trainers, surfaces, two-turn debut, and running into the likes of Vyjack for his first try out of the maiden ranks. Forgivable that he didn't fare too well there.

Then he ships out to O'Neill's stomping grounds for the San Vicente and runs a pretty good race. He's kind of neither here nor there throughout, just in behind the action up front, in a little bit of chaos, and churns his way through the race to run an even fifth behind the aforementioned likely favorite Shakin It Up. Visually, it wasn't a bad race at all in my opinion, and looks like he's really making some progress from race to race now facing winners.

Of course, he may just be a really average horse and on the merit of coming off of two "route" races and running improved races turning back to seven-eighths, he may just be a grinding one-turner. But he does kind of look like he may, I repeat MAY, be a very slow work in progress and set up just right for a big race in this spot.

I don't think that I'd jump through hoops to get my money down on him, but I can easily see him hitting double-digits on the tote board because he just really doesn't look that good on paper. He's certainly not the one that I would consider "most likely" to win, but he may end up being the one that I'd be most interested in betting if he's 12-1 or greater. I'm still doubtful that very many of these want any part of Shakin It Up, so if nothing else, he could be the double-digit compliment in exotics to that one's short priced readily apparent talent.

Very good analysis. I like Mudflats as well. I watched his replays and while I thought I would be dismayed given the running lines, I was actually intrigued. In the Jerome, I really think it was a case of a maiden winner getting intimidated by winners in his first attempt to beat them. In the San Vincente, he was making a move, but once again he simply got intimidated in the stretch. My instinct about this horse is that he actually wants two turns and wants to go long. He's got early foot which you need at Sunland and he can rate. He is the value in the race. I can't see betting Shakin It Up at a short price going two turns for the first time.

[iceknight]

The theory about Midnite Lute was that he was fine at two turns, but he had a throat problem and so they kept him limited to sprints. Don't know if you can right off his progeny going two turns. What do you think of a filly out of Midnite Lute.. Midnight Lucky in R10 the Oaks at Sunland Park. How is this Baffert trainee going to fare at 1 1/16?

Bet:

Double 3, 5 with Derby 2, 6

Post Oaks: Did not expect the 5 to weaken like that. Midnight Lucky, definitely crushed the field. Should be fun to follow her this year!

[PhantomOnTour]

I think the :1: offers value and can get a nice rail stalking trip.
Low profile connections could be over their heads here, though.

ex: 4-7 w 1
tri: 4-7 w 4-7-8-9 w 1
win: 1

[Tom]

I don't think I would have anything that finished in the front half if you let me bet it again! :lol:

[johnhannibalsmith]

I don't think I would have anything that finished in the front half if you let me bet it again! :lol:

Sometimes - like every day for the last six weeks - I actually thank the idiots that made it impossible for me to bet from home.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[classhandicapper]

I was shocked the winner went off at 6/5, but he sure ran like it. He had good figures and all, but he just didn't look like a horse that would get hammered like that late to me. I played Mudflats. I thought he was a little better than he looked on paper off his last race, but this one was over for him early when he got hung way out. I was probably just wrong about him.

[sammy the sage]

I was WRONG...at least for 8.5/9 F.'s...two Midnight Lutes ran well today.

[cj]

I was shocked the winner went off at 6/5, but he sure ran like it. He had good figures and all, but he just didn't look like a horse that would get hammered like that late to me. I played Mudflats. I thought he was a little better than he looked on paper off his last race, but this one was over for him early when he got hung way out. I was probably just wrong about him.

As you know, on my figs, he was MANY lengths the fastest coming into the race.

[Robert Fischer]

looked like a fast race today too...

[Stillriledup]

Midnite Lute = great at 7f and sprint distances. Sounds similar to Teuflesberg offsprings being pushed into the Darby (Trinniberg 2012).

Source: Wikipedia and pedigreequery

Bzzzzzt.

Midnight Lute would have been a great route horse if he didnt have a breathing problem....

Obviously. :D

[Stillriledup]

I was shocked the winner went off at 6/5, but he sure ran like it. He had good figures and all, but he just didn't look like a horse that would get hammered like that late to me. I played Mudflats. I thought he was a little better than he looked on paper off his last race, but this one was over for him early when he got hung way out. I was probably just wrong about him.

I was hoping he would drift up in price, i thought he 'couldnt lose' when i handicapped the race, i was just disappointed he paid 4 and change at what, 6-1 ML?

[depalma113]

When did they pull up the dirt and install asphalt?

[classhandicapper]

As you know, on my figs, he was MANY lengths the fastest coming into the race.

Yes I know.

He was fastest on everyone's figures, but especially yours.

I had a couple of angles in the race. So I was willing to play against him, but my analysis was way off on everything. I am often wrong, but rarely this wrong about everything. :blush:

[letswastemoney]

As you know, on my figs, he was MANY lengths the fastest coming into the race.
Where can we find your figs? They don't seem to be posted on pacefigures.com anymore.

[cj]

Where can we find your figs? They don't seem to be posted on pacefigures.com anymore.

They'll be available again pretty soon. There is a lot of new stuff being added taking up a lot of my time. I'll get the Triple Crown page updated this week.

Here is that race, just the overall figs for each horse:

http://www.pacefigures.com/images/sunderby.png

This is a new, tighter scale than the Beyer scale I use previously. An 11 point gap is a lot.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...

http://www.pacefigures.com/images/sunderby.png

...

Interesting stuff. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[tonypp]

I disagree,this horse is nothing like trinnberg,this horse is legit,he came into a million dollar race barley breaking his maiden,and he goes off at 8-5 and destroys the field.It looked like he had another gear that he didn't use.This is my derby horse.Trinnberg never raced over 7 F pure sprinterMidnite Lute = great at 7f and sprint distances. Sounds similar to Teuflesberg offsprings being pushed into the Darby (Trinniberg 2012).

Source: Wikipedia and pedigreequery