Bluegrass Stakes - Noble Tune and Rydilluc

[menifee]

In my humble opinion, I think these are two of the best three year olds racing. Looks like they will be meeting up in the Bluegrass Stakes with the winner to the Derby. I can't wait for this race. Maybe both go to Derby if they run 1-2. Won't know if they can run on dirt on May 4th, but these horses look really talented to me. The turf to CD dirt angle has worked in years past.

[Valuist]

I thought Rydilluc had an absolute perfect trip in the GP stake win where the pace was dreadfully slow. Maybe he gets the same scenario again, as the pace for the Blue Grass has been painfully slow since they converted to Polytrack. But if he does, he still won't be tested. Neither of these colts should be thinking KY Derby. They should be thinking Virginia Derby and Secretariat Stakes.

[Robert Fischer]

I thought Rydilluc had an absolute perfect trip in the GP stake win where the pace was dreadfully slow. Maybe he gets the same scenario again, as the pace for the Blue Grass has been painfully slow since they converted to Polytrack.

I agree. He looked good in his last race, but the slow pace, and his tactical speed allowed him to cruise on or near the lead and work a dream trip. He gave the impression that he has 10furlong stamina, but I need to see more. Virtually everyone in that race came home fast. No way that all those runners are classic distance horses in a testing race. Rydilluc needs to show that same ability while going a faster pace. In the derby he will hope to be 5 wide and get close to the front by the far turn.

[Midnight Cruiser]

There has been very little discussion about Noble Tune. Trained by Chad Brown and run only on the lawn with 4 starts and 3 wins. His only loss was a 2nd in the BC Juvy Grass. I have narrowed my list down to about 5 potential Kentucky Derby winners and he is on that short list. Anyone know who Brown will tab to ride Noble Tune?

[Valuist]

I don't know if it was Paddy O Prado or Animal Kingdom that started the whole "grass horses handle Churchill" phenomenon. Animal Kingdom has proven he handles anything (except slop), and at a very high level. Paddy O Prado was 3rd over a sloppy track in one of the weakest Derbies ever. Grass horses still are grass horses. I'm not a believer in this alleged phenomenon.

Noble Tune is a grass horse. If he were to win the Blue Grass, I'd be surprised if they entered him in the Derby.

[Leparoux]

Noble Tune is a grass horse. If he were to win the Blue Grass, I'd be surprised if they entered him in the Derby.
Really? You would be surprised?

If they win the Bluegrass, Derby fever will be in full force. I would be surprised if they didn't head to Churchill after that.

[Fager Fan]

I don't know if it was Paddy O Prado or Animal Kingdom that started the whole "grass horses handle Churchill" phenomenon. Animal Kingdom has proven he handles anything (except slop), and at a very high level. Paddy O Prado was 3rd over a sloppy track in one of the weakest Derbies ever. Grass horses still are grass horses. I'm not a believer in this alleged phenomenon.

Noble Tune is a grass horse. If he were to win the Blue Grass, I'd be surprised if they entered him in the Derby.

AK may be like the others - a turf horse who gets over the Churchill strip. Just look at the turf horses who have won on dirt in recent years - it's always Churchill that they win over and nowhere else. Churchill was always known to be a peculiar dirt surface.

[menifee]

I don't know if it was Paddy O Prado or Animal Kingdom that started the whole "grass horses handle Churchill" phenomenon. Animal Kingdom has proven he handles anything (except slop), and at a very high level. Paddy O Prado was 3rd over a sloppy track in one of the weakest Derbies ever. Grass horses still are grass horses. I'm not a believer in this alleged phenomenon.

Noble Tune is a grass horse. If he were to win the Blue Grass, I'd be surprised if they entered him in the Derby.

How about Dullahan? He handled the Churchill dirt (ran third in a stronger Derby and was 7 wide). Hasn't been able to run on dirt anywhere else. It is a strange surface.

[Leparoux]

AK may be like the others - a turf horse who gets over the Churchill strip. Just look at the turf horses who have won on dirt in recent years - it's always Churchill that they win over and nowhere else. Churchill was always known to be a peculiar dirt surface.
While I don't have any stats or examples in mind, I have a hard to believing that turf horses only win over the Churchill dirt and not at any other tracks.

[Striker]

Noble Tune is a grass horse. If he were to win the Blue Grass, I'd be surprised if they entered him in the Derby.
I agree that NT is a grass horse, but if he were to get 1st or 2nd in the Bluegrass, I gotta believe they would strongly consider going to the KD. If he doesn't run well in the Bluegrass, it is obviously back to the turf. At the very least give him a work or two on the dirt at Churchill to see how he handles the surface before the KD.

[Valuist]

Really? You would be surprised?

If they win the Bluegrass, Derby fever will be in full force. I would be surprised if they didn't head to Churchill after that.

Chad Brown is a pretty sharp trainer. He doesn't strike me as the type getting caught up in Derby Fever. Of course, the owners could overrule him.

[Valuist]

How about Dullahan? He handled the Churchill dirt (ran third in a stronger Derby and was 7 wide). Hasn't been able to run on dirt anywhere else. It is a strange surface.

How many did surfaces did he run on? Seems like he ran mostly on synthetic, a bit on turf, and he ran poorly in the Preakness. If he ran poorly in the Belmont, it could've just as likely been the distance.

[Striker]

While I don't have any stats or examples in mind, I have a hard to believing that turf horses only win over the Churchill dirt and not at any other tracks.
Some recent examples of KD winners that started out as turf horses would be Animal Kingdom 2nd at Pimlico, 3rd at Belmont, but has not won on another dirt surface besides Churchill, and Big Brown who won at Gulfstream, Monmouth, and Pimlico, and then Barbaro who won at Gulfstream.

[iceknight]

I don't know if it was Paddy O Prado or Animal Kingdom that started the whole "grass horses handle Churchill" phenomenon. Animal Kingdom has proven he handles anything (except slop), and at a very high level. Paddy O Prado was 3rd over a sloppy track in one of the weakest Derbies ever. Grass horses still are grass horses. I'm not a believer in this alleged phenomenon.

Noble Tune is a grass horse. If he were to win the Blue Grass, I'd be surprised if they entered him in the Derby. Apart from the Belmont (where slop was not the issue imo, but the bump right after the break, near fall of jockey and coming out of irons), affected AK in a huge way. That initial distance setback is not something you can overcome easily- when other horses still ran fairly slow fractions and had gears left. AK has had only one slop race, and that was incident marred. AK was 6th at Belmont?

[Valuist]

Some recent examples of KD winners that started out as turf horses would be Animal Kingdom 2nd at Pimlico, 3rd at Belmont, but has not won on another dirt surface besides Churchill, and Big Brown who won at Gulfstream, Monmouth, and Pimlico, and then Barbaro who won at Gulfstream.

I don't happen to remember Big Brown's past performances, but grass horse? Was it just one start? If that's the case, I would never have classified him as a "grass horse".

[menifee]

How many did surfaces did he run on? Seems like he ran mostly on synthetic, a bit on turf, and he ran poorly in the Preakness. If he ran poorly in the Belmont, it could've just as likely been the distance.

Ran poorly in Dirt as a two year old. Didn't run in the Preakness. Ran in the Belmont and Haskell and never fired.

[Striker]

I don't happen to remember Big Brown's past performances, but grass horse? Was it just one start? If that's the case, I would never have classified him as a "grass horse".
I said started out on turf, so yes he broke his maiden at Saratoga in a turf route but he also won his last race at Mth on the turf in a non graded stakes at 9f. Of the 3 examples that I gave in the other post I would say that those 3 horses could handle/win on any surface because they were that good.

[Robert Fischer]

should be a good betting race :jump:

[menifee]

I said started out on turf, so yes he broke his maiden at Saratoga in a turf route but he also won his last race at Mth on the turf in a non graded stakes at 9f. Of the 3 examples that I gave in the other post I would say that those 3 horses could handle/win on any surface because they were that good.

They only discovered he was good on dirt because his 3 yr old debut race at GP was rained off the turf course.

[menifee]

I agree that NT is a grass horse, but if he were to get 1st or 2nd in the Bluegrass, I gotta believe they would strongly consider going to the KD. If he doesn't run well in the Bluegrass, it is obviously back to the turf. At the very least give him a work or two on the dirt at Churchill to see how he handles the surface before the KD.

Why do you think he is a grass horse? That pedigree does not scream grass to me. It actually indicates dirt.

[Striker]

They only discovered he was good on dirt because his 3 yr old debut race at GP was rained off the turf course.
Fair enough, but I would make a guess that they would have put him in the Bluegrass if he had only won on turf before that, and then they would have given him a shot in the KD.

[Striker]

Why do you think he is a grass horse? That pedigree does not scream grass to me. It actually indicates dirt.
The pedigree actually screams dirt like you have said. His third dam Serena's Song, even though she won 11 Grade 1's on dirt, has produced some nice turf runners and his mom was a 4 time turf sprint winner. Brown has said he thought this horse was destined for the dirt as his first 12 works were on the dirt, and he didn't train well at all on the surface. They switched his works over to the turf and they noticed a huge improvement in his training. Why has Brown kept him on the turf for all his races up to this point? If he runs well at Keeneland, I would suspect they go in the KD but I would guess that will be the horse's one and only race on dirt unless he wins it.

[Valuist]

Why do you think he is a grass horse? That pedigree does not scream grass to me. It actually indicates dirt.

Results trump pedigree.

[rastajenk]

I don't know if it was Paddy O Prado or Animal Kingdom that started the whole "grass horses handle Churchill" phenomenon ...

Sea Hero! ;)

[Fager Fan]

While I don't have any stats or examples in mind, I have a hard to believing that turf horses only win over the Churchill dirt and not at any other tracks.

Animal Kingdom
Wise Dan
Einstein

Those three are top class horses but the only dirt track they got a win over was Churchill.

[Sysonby]

There are other horses in this race that can be expected to do well, so for at least one of these the KD is probably not a decision that will have to be made.

[Leparoux]

Animal Kingdom
Wise Dan
Einstein

Those three are top class horses but the only dirt track they got a win over was Churchill.
AK ran a really good Preakness and had no shot in the Belmont. As far as I know, Wise Dan has never raced on another dirt track besides Churchill.

[Fager Fan]

AK ran a really good Preakness and had no shot in the Belmont. As far as I know, Wise Dan has never raced on another dirt track besides Churchill.

But he didn't win. Curlin ran a good 2nd on turf, but that doesn't make us think he was a turf horse. The evidence is that horses that pop to run the race of their life on the first Saturday of May almost always run really well 3 weeks later. This includes some horses like Mine That Bird and Funny Cide who were almost non-existent in every race after.

I think Wise Dan ran down at Gulfstream on the dirt. Or maybe I'm thinking of Einstein. Wise Dan is free to run over another dirt track, though. He passed the $5 million dirt race for the $1 million turf race in November. Note that AK never raced again on dirt. These trainers and owners know they're turf horses, and that there's something about Churchill that appeals to turf horses.

[Striker]

Chad Brown said today that Balance the Books will run in the Bluegrass but not Noble Tune. Noble Tune to target the American Turf at Churchill May 3rd.

[Leparoux]

But he didn't win. Curlin ran a good 2nd on turf, but that doesn't make us think he was a turf horse. The evidence is that horses that pop to run the race of their life on the first Saturday of May almost always run really well 3 weeks later. This includes some horses like Mine That Bird and Funny Cide who were almost non-existent in every race after.

I think Wise Dan ran down at Gulfstream on the dirt. Or maybe I'm thinking of Einstein. Wise Dan is free to run over another dirt track, though. He passed the $5 million dirt race for the $1 million turf race in November. Note that AK never raced again on dirt. These trainers and owners know they're turf horses, and that there's something about Churchill that appeals to turf horses.
Wise Dan has only on the Churchill dirt. Pretty unfair to use him as an example. BC Mile is 2 million not 1 million.

Now you are changing your argument. Is it Turf horses who only run at Churchill or Derby winners or what? Mine That Bird is now part of this? You are all over the place. Funny Cide won the Preakness right?

[Leparoux]

Is Balance the Books on for this race? I figured he wouldn't be after the bomb in the Spiral but I thought there may have been some tweets saying he was still going for this.

[Valuist]

Is Balance the Books on for this race? I figured he wouldn't be after the bomb in the Spiral but I thought there may have been some tweets saying he was still going for this.

Balance the Books- Blue Grass
Noble Tune- American Turf

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/77404/brown-balance-the-books-to-blue-grass?source=rss

[Leparoux]

^Thanks!

[Leparoux]

Grade 1, $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

1 Dynamic Sky, J. Rosario, 10-1
2 My Name is Michael, S. Bridgmohan, 15-1
3 Undrafted, C. Nakatani, 10-1
4 Java’s War, J. Leparoux, 4-1
5 Palace Malice, G. Gomez, 8-1
6 Channel Isle, J. Rocco Jr., 30-1
7 Uncaptured, M. Mena, 7-2
8 Charming Kitten, J. Bravo, 10-1
9 Tesseron, A. Garcia, 50-1
10 Footbridge, C. Lanerie, 20-1
11 Balance the Books, J. Castellano, 15-1
12 West Hills Giant, J. Espinoza, 20-1
13 Rydilluc, E. Prado, 4-1
14 Fear the Kitten, R. Napravnik, 30-1
15(ae) Divine Ambition, J. Graham, 50-1

[overthehill]

I think the odds on some of the long shots are crazy. rydullic had to break from post #13 going 1 1 /8 not so easy to do for a pace prompter. I hope the long shot i like is close to the ml odds.

[Leparoux]

There are so many different ways to go in this race it is nuts. I think this :9: horse has a legit shot and is 50-1 ML.

[nijinski]

There are so many different ways to go in this race it is nuts. I think this :9: horse has a legit shot and is 50-1 ML.

I went with him last time out .I think Josie Carrol spots her horses pretty well and she's waited on him to grow and mature .
I'd probably use him in exotics and I'm sure his odss of course will be much lower than the ml .Very well bred !

[precocity]

best believe this is going to be a stately victor type of race, long shot city.properly put 20$ to win on every horse above 20-1 :cool:

[classhandicapper]

Maybe he's not ready for this, but I might try to sneak a horse like Footbridge into some of my exotics. He's only beaten maidens and has never run on synth, but he finished close to Governor Charlie in fast time, has been working well on synth, and the pedigree looks good for the surface switch.

[Valuist]

Kind of get the feeling one could make every horse right around 10-1/11-1 and not be too far from realistic. I don't think I could take 4-1 on anything in this field.

[PhantomOnTour]

I am strongly against the co-favorite at 4-1 Java's War in the win hole.
He's gonna make up that kinda ground over this surface ?
Yeah he gets the king of Kee, Leparoux, in the saddle - but no thanks.
The pace at Tampa set him up nicely last time, as did the pace here at Kee last year when he ran a good 3rd.
I see him at about his ML of 4-1, maybe 3-1 or 7-2 and i will use him underneath only.

Dynamic Sky, on the other hand, may be overlaid off his 10-1 ML.
He was too close to Verrazano last time & got gassed trying to keep up, and Java ran by him.
Rosario won't do that again - i think we'll see a ground saving midpack run from him. His problem is that he's tried routing 4 times and hasn't won.
Still, he ran two nice ones off the shelf and then ran into the Verrazano buzzsaw...will give him another shot, esp since Rosario stays when he seemingly could have ridden the #2.
By my humble figs, he's right there but i doubt i will see 10-1...expect more like 5-1 or 9-2.
As of now, Dynamic Sky is my boy.

[OTM Al]

The one I find most interseting in this race at a price is Footbridge. Won't use him for win but toying with a 13/7+10 exacta. Expect Uncaptured to be much better off his tightener in his last but believe Rydilluc to be a very strong choice on top.

[Valuist]

Tesseron at 50-1? He comes out of a big key NW1X. The winner came back to win the Spiral and the 3rd horse won the Rushaway, an hour before the Spiral. Tesseron was a close 4th in that last race, despite being wide on both turns. As for synthetic, he put up an 84 and 83 Beyer as a 2 year old in his only synthetic races. Not sure what the linemaker is thinking here giving him basically zero chance.

[Leparoux]

Tesseron at 50-1? He comes out of a big key NW1X. The winner came back to win the Spiral and the 3rd horse won the Rushaway, an hour before the Spiral. Tesseron was a close 4th in that last race, despite being wide on both turns. As for synthetic, he put up an 84 and 83 Beyer as a 2 year old in his only synthetic races. Not sure what the linemaker is thinking here giving him basically zero chance.
Yea I'm with you. I would love to lock in 50-1 right now but have a feeling he will be closer to 20.

I might just key off Uncaptured and use a bunch of price around him. If you can hit something in this race, it is going to pay like crazy.

[Valuist]

My Blue Grass odds:

1 Dynamic Sky 8-1
2 My Name is Michael 20-1
3 Undrafted 10-1
4 Java's War 7-1
5 Palace Malice 6-1
6 Channel Isle 25-1
7 Uncaptured 8-1
8 Charming Kitten 10-1
9 Tesseron 12-1
10 Footbridge 15-1
11 Balance the Books 9-1
12 West Hills Giant 15-1
13 Rydilluc 6-1
14 Fear the Kitten 15-1

[Robert Fischer]

Maybe he's not ready for this, but I might try to sneak a horse like Footbridge into some of my exotics. He's only beaten maidens and has never run on synth, but he finished close to Governor Charlie in fast time, has been working well on synth, and the pedigree looks good for the surface switch.

I like your thinking. I haven't re-watched Footbridge's races yet, but he's had a good progression so far in his career. He's also bred up and down for poly.

Top polytrack pedigrees at first glance = Footbridge, Java's War, Channel Isle(not much else positive for C.I.).

Surface may also compliment Undrafted who has a rough way of going, a maiden win on the track, and a hot Kee barn.

Undrafted and Footbridge are likely to be pace factors as well. There isn't a ton of front end sprint speed here.

tough race to cap and I feel like I am reaching with the above selections.

As a fan, I'd like to see Rydilluc run big, or maybe Uncaptured.

[Beachbabe]

I like the two "Un" horses.
Undrafted, the longer shot of the two, broke his maiden here a year ago in his first start with a nice number. They've been trying to rate this horse the last 2 races with the removal of blinkers & he hasn't been embarrassed. Has won a a mile. The distance today is a big question mark for this one, but I'm using him in exotics.

[PhantomOnTour]

I may have to reconsider my stance on Java's War - he's gonna get all the pace he needs up front to spark his rally.
In fact, i think this race has a chance to cave in:
:3: the quickest in here imo if his mind is on the lead
:7: does his best work when near the front
:10: also pretty quick early, and what's he gonna do from the 10 hole?
:12: pure pace fodder imo, likely to go pretty hard from out here
:13: another with good speed and a decision to make from this post

I think the :7: will outlast all of the E/P types - no excuses for him today if Mena can rate him off the speed a few.
:1: still using him as i think he trips very well, and his best is good enough
:4: can't totally toss him now - i am usually never right with Leparoux, and i will use him sparingly on top, but he looks like he'll get a piece at least if the track is fair
:2: taking a bit of a shot with this 1 time winner, but he too will be aided by the expected pace. Loses Rosario but gets blinks and the chance to put races together - ready to get back to his best from last year. May simply be outclassed and overmatched here, but maybe he gets a piece.

ex: 1-7 w 1-2-4-7-9
ex: 4 w 1-7
win: 1-2

good luck

[Valuist]

I've heard a lot of discussion on this race and I don't think anyone has mentioned Palace Malice. Yes, we don't know if he can handle Poly but he's by Curlin (by Smart Strike) out of a Royal Anthem mare. They could've gone to Hot Springs. Maybe he's worked on synthetic in the past.

He appears to be a binary event: if he doesn't handle it, it doesn't matter. If he does, he's a very strong contender. When I lined the race earlier in the thread, I had him as co-favorite at 6-1.

[ManU918]

Going with the :14: Fear The Kitten

[peeptoad]

:3:

[johnhannibalsmith]

I've heard a lot of discussion on this race and I don't think anyone has mentioned Palace Malice. ...

This one jumps at me as my sort of key horse in a race like this. I really don't have any strong feelings about anyone in this field - looks like a hodgepodge of wishful thinkers and last ditch resurrections - with almost everyone having cases for and against in a spot like this.

He seems like he can run from almost anywhere in the field, which seems like a big plus in this spot with a bit of a baffling pace scenario to project. His last race was basically a mess -tried to make a run and made up ground into the race and had no shot to overcome the traffic jam that claimed a few in that spot.

He may not be much or he may just be tons the best and sitting on the breakthrough effort, but at least he looks like he has upside at a price.

Not sure what kind of price he actually goes off at - wouldn't shock me at all if he was bet down off of the 8-1 M/L - but I'd actually kind of like to make a win bet on him if I could a) get near the M/L and b) get to the OTB today. :D

As a key, even though I hate to start tossing horses in this field to play an exotic wager, since they have those half-dollar triactors - for $42 I could probably justify keying him first and second with 1,4,7,9,10,11,13 along with a win bet and hope that I could still get double digits to one even if he can do no better than second with a price or two on either side of him.

[ArlJim78]

hodgepodge is the right word for this race. 14 horses, 14 question marks. I'd like to go against the shorter prices like Uncaptured and Rydilluc, but where to land? Maybe Footbridge if the price is right.

[Wiley]

I've heard a lot of discussion on this race and I don't think anyone has mentioned Palace Malice. Yes, we don't know if he can handle Poly but he's by Curlin (by Smart Strike) out of a Royal Anthem mare. They could've gone to Hot Springs. Maybe he's worked on synthetic in the past.

He appears to be a binary event: if he doesn't handle it, it doesn't matter. If he does, he's a very strong contender. When I lined the race earlier in the thread, I had him as co-favorite at 6-1.
On HRTV they mentioned he worked well at Keeneland as a 2 year old. If Gomez can keep him out of trouble and forwardly placed, a big if for a stalker in a 14 horse field, has a shot and might get overlooked, guessing 7 to 1 range, though he is a Pletcher so could be lower.

[Striker]

:5: Palace Malice

[raybo]

RS has these FVIV rankings (the method I always use for these big races). The top 4 are my win contenders, and I need 4/1 odds for betting them.

[Tee]

Gave the :1: Dynamic Sky & the :8: Charming Kitten the nod as they are loading into the gate.

[raybo]

4 won it. Last to first!

[PhantomOnTour]

I used the winner (and reluctantly at that) but had nothing underneath him - my poly skills need improvement

Looked like a total non effort from the :1:

[raybo]

I was pulling for the 2, but didn't really have a strong opinion about any of my picks actually winning. Got the right one somehow.

[redshift1]

Nice to see Leparoux win after getting replaced on Flashback.

[Leparoux]

Nice to see Leparoux win after getting replaced on Flashback.
I agree :)

[menifee]

Gosh - I don't think I have ever been more disappointed in a horse than I was in Rydilluc. I thought Prado gave him a masterful ride. He got to the lead and turning for home I thought he had a ton of horse and was going to roar away. Maybe the horse has distance issues, but he spit the bit and came way back to them.

Was my Derby futures horse for sometime and really thought he was going to be a top three year old. Now looking again. Really not excited about this Derby field.

[Leparoux]

Gosh - I don't think I have ever been more disappointed in a horse than I was in Rydilluc. I thought Prado gave him a masterful ride. He got to the lead and turning for home I thought he had a ton of horse and was going to roar away. Maybe the horse has distance issues, but he spit the bit and came way back to them.

Was my Derby futures horse for sometime and really thought he was going to be a top three year old. Now looking again. Really not excited about this Derby field.
I thought so too and keyed him on all my tickets. Looking forward to him getting back to the turf.

[raybo]

Gosh - I don't think I have ever been more disappointed in a horse than I was in Rydilluc. I thought Prado gave him a masterful ride. He got to the lead and turning for home I thought he had a ton of horse and was going to roar away. Maybe the horse has distance issues, but he spit the bit and came way back to them.

Was my Derby futures horse for sometime and really thought he was going to be a top three year old. Now looking again. Really not excited about this Derby field.

When I first imported and processed this race, I noticed that Rydilluc didn't show up in any of my ratings, at least for the win spot, which surprised me a bit. I think 10th was the best he ranked in anything. So, I checked the PPs and basically what it boiled down to was that he had serious class and surface issues. Coupled with what I considered to be a paceless race, and that he would probably want the lead early, without being a dominant horse in that respect, he had almost no chance of winning. I figured he would be caught in the stretch if he did actually take the early lead. The best scenario for him, under those conditions, would have had him laying off the pace early, not taking the lead or strongly pressing the lead.

Anyway, that was my take on the horse before the race. A paceless race, with this many horses running, and them all being 3yos, is almost a crap shoot, IMO.

[Striker]

According to the DRF Mike Smith has picked up the mount on Palace Malice