People fall in love with 3 year old closers too often...

[letswastemoney]

This seems to be a trend. Knock down the horse that ran hard early and got a little tired at the end, while giving points to the deep closers who clunked up.

In the Kentucky Derby, the deep closers are almost always overbet and clunk up to a 3rd or 4th place finish.

I think people like them because it's the last thing they see. They put on a show before the finish line and people like that and remember it. Thoughts?

[PICSIX]

Steppenwolfer comes to mind....ran 2nd Arkansas Derby & 3rd Kentucky Derby I believe?

[redshift1]

Dialed In

[PICSIX]

2006, where has the time gone?

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?BORP=P&STYLE=EQB&DAY=D&tid=OP&dt=04/15/2006&ctry=USA&race=9

[Valuist]

Dollar Bill, Ice Box, virtually all the Blue Grass and Spiral winners (since Poly).

But there are some exceptions: Animal Kingdom, Monarchos, Street Sense, Giacomo and Fusaichi Pegasus, just since the turn of the century.

[PICSIX]

Dollar Bill, Ice Box, virtually all the Blue Grass and Spiral winners (since Poly).

But there are some exceptions: Animal Kingdom, Monarchos, Street Sense, Giacomo and Fusaichi Pegasus, just since the turn of the century.

Don't forget Mine That Bird.

[Maximillion]

FWIW (not much) I loved Java Wars last race.....goes in BG and will be 3rd off a layoff and back to dirt (if) he makes it to the KD.

[Valuist]

Don't forget Mine That Bird.

I still have a hard time believing he won. Granted, he verified the form two weeks later in the Preakness, and ran a solid race 3 weeks later in New York. But then it was back to obscurity. Did he ever win a race after the Derby?

So that's 6 closers since 2000. Maybe the public is on to something.

[sandpit]

I still have a hard time believing he won. Granted, he verified the form two weeks later in the Preakness, and ran a solid race 3 weeks later in New York. But then it was back to obscurity. Did he ever win a race after the Derby?

So that's 6 closers since 2000. Maybe the public is on to something.

Funny, my wife asked me just the other day if I thought that horse was drugged or got buzzed. I told her it was a lot of luck and a terrible field. I was there the day before and I was disgusted Rachel ran in the Oaks; she would have won the Derby by about the same margin. No, I don't think MTB ever won again; Monarchos never did either, I don't believe, and he ran the second fastest Derby ever.

Imperialism and Invisible Ink also come to mind.

[letswastemoney]

Don't forget Mine That Bird.
It's interesting though because before the race, you couldn't label him as a deep closer. On another forum I read it's best the horse show some speed in his prep races and Mine That Bird did show his tactical speed.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Denis Of Cork

[MNslappy]

Pyro

[letswastemoney]

FWIW (not much) I loved Java Wars last race.....goes in BG and will be 3rd off a layoff and back to dirt (if) he makes it to the KD.
I think he got a setup in the Tampa Bay and still couldn't pass Verrazano. He fits the plodding 3rd description perfectly.

I could be proven wrong though.

Also, I do love Java's War in the Blue Grass and feel he has a big chance there since he ran well in the Breeders Futurity.

[menifee]

Denis Of Cork

This horse ripped my heart out. Bet him in the KD and then really bet him back in the Belmont. Thought Big Brown would run off the board and keyed this horse on top in a lot of exotics with the others, etc. He was a closer that could never get there.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=46128&page=1&pp=15&highlight=Denis+Cork

[Valuist]

It's interesting though because before the race, you couldn't label him as a deep closer. On another forum I read it's best the horse show some speed in his prep races and Mine That Bird did show his tactical speed.

That's true. In the Sunland race, he made a premature move into a fast pace then backed off late.

IMO, Mine that Bird winning the 2009 Derby was the biggest upset I've ever seen in my life. This was bigger than Buster Douglas, 1969 Mets, Namath's Jets, 1983 NC State; bigger than anything. He was 50-1 but should've been about 200-1.

[classhandicapper]

That's true. In the Sunland race, he made a premature move into a fast pace then backed off late.

IMO, Mine that Bird winning the 2009 Derby was the biggest upset I've ever seen in my life. This was bigger than Buster Douglas, 1969 Mets, Namath's Jets, 1983 NC State; bigger than anything. He was 50-1 but should've been about 200-1.

Bigger than Tyson?

I remember the night Tyson lost. I called "Sports Phone" for the result. I was so shocked I called 2 more times because I was sure wasn't hearing the message right. lol

[Valuist]

Bigger than Tyson?

I remember the night Tyson lost. I called "Sports Phone" for the result. I was so shocked I called 2 more times because I was sure wasn't hearing the message right. lol

Buster Douglas was 50-1 to win. Mine that Bird was a hugely underlaid 50-1. Realistically, he could've easily been 150-1 or 200-1. In a fight, anything can happen. Only 2 competitors. But in the most prestigious race in North America, for a horse who couldn't hit the board at Sunland to win is beyond imaginable.

[precocity]

borel factor? mine that bird should of been 200-1.

[PhantomOnTour]

Buster Douglas was 50-1 to win. Mine that Bird was a hugely underlaid 50-1. Realistically, he could've easily been 150-1 or 200-1. In a fight, anything can happen. Only 2 competitors. But in the most prestigious race in North America, for a horse who couldn't hit the board at Sunland to win is beyond imaginable.
What would MTB's odds be in a two horse race?
He was 50-1 in a twenty horse field...the Tyson/Douglas bout had two competitors...for one of them to be 50-1 (i thought it was about 30-1) is a HUGE upset.

Chaminade over Virginia was a big one too

[nijinski]

Let's see what happens in the Spiral with all those closers , LOL .

I think we fall in love with them because of the excitement and anticipation .
Even though we know they are vulnerable for a troubled trip .

[Valuist]

What would MTB's odds be in a two horse race?
He was 50-1 in a twenty horse field...the Tyson/Douglas bout had two competitors...for one of them to be 50-1 (i thought it was about 30-1) is a HUGE upset.

Chaminade over Virginia was a big one too

I forgot about Chaminade over Virginia, but that wasn't an NCAA tourney game. If I remember correctly, it was a November game in Hawaii; a prime spot for a highly regarded team to overlook a big underdog.

As for Buster Douglas, 50-1 was obviously a bad line. I know that's after the fact, but Tyson's reputation contributed a lot to that. My guess is that a lot of people not familiar with moneyline betting were wagering that day.

[overthehill]

I dont know why you would say that. first of all i think 10-20% of racing results are unpredictable , secondly the race was run on an offtrack, lastly I believe the horse was highly regarded as a two year old in canada. Temperance Hill won the Belmont on an off track at better than 50-1 finishing ahead of both Derby winner Geunine Risk who had lost all of two races, and Preakness and SA Derby winner CODEX. I think it was coming off a third in a nw1 allowance race on turf. For me the unlikeliest Derby winner i can recall was Gato del Sol. I guess some horses peak at the right time.

[raybo]

I love deep closers also, but in the right field makeup, only. Randy Giles' PPG helps with seeing when they are advantaged (or like me, you can modify Giles' work a tad).

That said, when talking about 3 yos and the Derby, I think history speaks for itself. The early horses more often than not, are overbet and disappoint, leaving the race for an underbet "later" horse. Great money to be made in the Derby, that's why it's the biggest race of the year for me, most years anyway.

[raybo]

Let's see what happens in the Spiral with all those closers , LOL .

I think we fall in love with them because of the excitement and anticipation .
Even though we know they are vulnerable for a troubled trip .

"Deep" closers aren't too "vulnerable for a troubled trip", unless they try getting by on the rail all the time. For many of these types, running a little longer race, by running wider, is a definite advantage. One must consider the jockey and how well he does with these deep closers. Many people think that the jockey is just a passenger, I love that kind of thinking from my competitors!!

[raybo]

borel factor? mine that bird should of been 200-1.

Too bad he wasn't!

[nijinski]

"Deep" closers aren't too "vulnerable for a troubled trip", unless they try getting by on the rail all the time. For many of these types, running a little longer race, by running wider, is a definite advantage. One must consider the jockey and how well he does with these deep closers. Many people think that the jockey is just a passenger, I love that kind of thinking from my competitors!!

Well maybe troubled trip was not the best thing to say about a deep closer .
Those who plod about early . I love to watch them when they do
get up in time . Unfortunately I've seen too many get into stride too late or
or fall victim to a slow pace. . I'm not saying anything you don't already know .
I still love following them and I do take my chances with a race I think is set up for this . That just doesn't always happen .
I would hope after all these years I know how important a jockey is , but
hopefully you weren't addressing me on this too . :)

[raybo]

Well maybe troubled trip was not the best thing to say about a deep closer .
Those who plod about early . I love to watch them when they do
get up in time . Unfortunately I've seen too many get into stride too late or
or fall victim to a slow pace. . I'm not saying anything you don't already know .
I still love following them and I do take my chances with a race I think is set up for this . That just doesn't always happen .
I would hope after all these years I know how important a jockey is , but
hopefully you weren't addressing me on this too . :)

No I wasn't addressing you on the jockey/passenger thing.

The people I'm talking about must have, at some point, see a horse throw his jockey and then go on to win easily. Then they say, "who the heck needs a jockey"? They forget the 100+ pounds the horse just shed.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Why not fall in love with a closer,if only for 1 race?

The Kentucky Derby is the ultimate pace meltdown race for young,fragile horses,going a marathon distance,at least on dirt.Who cares if closers are overrated later in the summer?We can always bet against them later.I'm just not seeing the genius of this thread!Is this an etiquette lesson in turf love?!

[depalma113]

That's true. In the Sunland race, he made a premature move into a fast pace then backed off late.

IMO, Mine that Bird winning the 2009 Derby was the biggest upset I've ever seen in my life. This was bigger than Buster Douglas, 1969 Mets, Namath's Jets, 1983 NC State; bigger than anything. He was 50-1 but should've been about 200-1.

The Miracle on Ice was the biggest upset in sports history.

[horses4courses]

The Miracle on Ice was the biggest upset in sports history.

Before the Olympics began, maybe.
Once the tournament started, it was evident that the US team was playing well.
They were, also, playing on home ice.
The world tuned into that gold medal game knowing the US had a chance.

For upsets, l'd say that Clay/Liston I is right up there.

[horses4courses]

Let's face it, in the past 20 years in the KY Derby, betting closers has been much more profitable than betting speed. Those stalking the speed, and not coming from too far back, have done the best, have they not?

Bodemeister came close last year showing speed.
Go For Gin (in the slop) and War Emblem won with speed, but not much else has.

[letswastemoney]

Let's face it, in the past 20 years in the KY Derby, betting closers has been much more profitable than betting speed. Those stalking the speed, and not coming from too far back, have done the best, have they not?

Bodemeister came close last year showing speed.
Go For Gin (in the slop) and War Emblem won with speed, but not much else has.
Horses like I'll Have Another and Funny Cide had tactical speed. Itsmyluckyday kind of reminds me of those 2.

I'm talking about Ice Box type horses that comes from 20 lengths out of it. Those are the ones overbet.

[SharpCat]

Before the Olympics began, maybe.
Once the tournament started, it was evident that the US team was playing well.
They were, also, playing on home ice.
The world tuned into that gold medal game knowing the US had a chance.

For upsets, l'd say that Clay/Liston I is right up there.


You do know that The Miracle on Ice was not the gold medal game. Back then the medal round was roun-robin format and they had to beat Finland to secure the gold medal.

[_______]

The Miracle on Ice was the biggest upset in sports history.

bigger than when upset was the only horse to beat man o' war in 1919?

i had my love of hopeless closer's beaten out of me by saarland back in 2002.

[Leparoux]

Horses like I'll Have Another and Funny Cide had tactical speed. Itsmyluckyday kind of reminds me of those 2.

I'm talking about Ice Box type horses that comes from 20 lengths out of it. Those are the ones overbet.
Dialed In also comes to mind.

[horses4courses]

You do know that The Miracle on Ice was not the gold medal game. Back then the medal round was roun-robin format and they had to beat Finland to secure the gold medal.

You're right.
My sporting trivia powers of recall are no longer contained in a steel trap. ;)

I watched the Lake Placid games back when I lived in Ireland.
Ice hockey is not big over there, but people watched with interest.
99.9% of those watching were rooting for the USA.

Can't recall seeing odds on the game, but I know the US was not a double digit underdog.
Great drama bringing off that victory, though. :ThmbUp:

[horses4courses]

You guys are right about deep closers in the Derby.
Saarland, Ice Box, Dialed In all qualify as such.

They all needed races to fall apart in front of them to have any chance.
More often than not, those colts couldn't get that late kick going anyway.
They were all pretty slow most of the time.

Grindstone came from out of the clouds.
Any others?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Impeachment :faint:

Don't Get Mad :mad:

Imawildandcrazyguy :bang:

[RXB]

As far as the Triple Crown is concerned, one could just as accurately start a thread titled "People fall in love with 3 year old frontrunners too often..."

[depalma113]

Before the Olympics began, maybe.
Once the tournament started, it was evident that the US team was playing well.
They were, also, playing on home ice.
The world tuned into that gold medal game knowing the US had a chance.

For upsets, l'd say that Clay/Liston I is right up there.

The gold medal game was irrelevant in terms of upsets, it was just the reward.

The US team was at best a minor league hockey team and they beat not only the best hockey team in the world, but probably the greatest hockey team that had ever been assembled up until that point. A team that consisted of the equivalent of NHL All-Stars that had been playing together for years.

These were kids against pros.

Several things created the upset. It wasn't that just the US was playing well, it was every break in the game went team USA's way. It was the panic of the Soviet coach pulling the best goalie in the world after he made a mistake that allowed the Americans to score, an absolute shock to both teams. It was Jim Craig playing the best game of his life in goal. The Soviets outshot the Americans 39-16. It was Mark Johnson's goal with one second left in the first period. It was the Soviet's over confidence after they had crushed the Americans a few weeks earlier in Madison Square Garden. It was the Soviet's not pulling their goalie with a minute left to add another attacker.

The stars aligned that day, like they never have in the history of sport. The American win over the Soviets should never have happened. It truly was a miracle.

[RXB]

The stars aligned that day, like they never have in the history of sport. The American win over the Soviets should never have happened. It truly was a miracle.

In "the history of sport" this was the biggest upset? Nope. I'll give you a bigger upset just in the history of the Soviet hockey team. They lost 6-4 to Poland in the 1976 World Hockey Championships. The American team at Lake Placid featured a number of guys who went on to have solid NHL careers. The Poles had no such players of that calibre and in their seven previous games against the Soviets had been outscored 98-10. In their very next game in that tournament, Poland lost to Czechoslovakia 12-0.

[letswastemoney]

I wrote this on my blog. I'll post it here too.

How to construct a Kentucky Derby superfecta

1st slot

If you have read my blog, you know what I am looking for on top of the superfecta. If I were to make one, I’d take a horse that will be at least mid-pack or up front.

I want no part of a stone cold closer that will come 30 lengths out of it and try to win Zenyatta style. More often than not, that style requires exceptional luck to cut through the traffic.


2nd slot

I’ll recommend the same for the second slot, although you might want to include only the best of the best deep closers. Front-runners and close range stalkers still have the advantage here..


3rd slot

Now here is the spot to place the deep closers (think Ice Box, Dullahan, I’mawildandcrazyguy types). Expect the deep closers to be forced into going wide if they can’t find a hole. That will dull their late kick.

Leave the “need the lead” types out of this spot. Either the War Emblem types run big or they quit.


4th slot

I will recommend the same here as in the third slot. Deep closers generally take the fourth position, become overbet in the Preakness and Belmont, and make people scratch their head wondering how a horse can run so well in the Kentucky Derby, but fail miserably in the slower paced legs of the Triple Crown.

[raybo]

I wrote this on my blog. I'll post it here too.

How to construct a Kentucky Derby superfecta

1st slot

If you have read my blog, you know what I am looking for on top of the superfecta. If I were to make one, I’d take a horse that will be at least mid-pack or up front.

I want no part of a stone cold closer that will come 30 lengths out of it and try to win Zenyatta style. More often than not, that style requires exceptional luck to cut through the traffic.


2nd slot

I’ll recommend the same for the second slot, although you might want to include only the best of the best deep closers. Front-runners and close range stalkers still have the advantage here..


3rd slot

Now here is the spot to place the deep closers (think Ice Box, Dullahan, I’mawildandcrazyguy types). Expect the deep closers to be forced into going wide if they can’t find a hole. That will dull their late kick.

Leave the “need the lead” types out of this spot. Either the War Emblem types run big or they quit.


4th slot

I will recommend the same here as in the third slot. Deep closers generally take the fourth position, become overbet in the Preakness and Belmont, and make people scratch their head wondering how a horse can run so well in the Kentucky Derby, but fail miserably in the slower paced legs of the Triple Crown.

Not bad, but remember, every field is different. Early runners are advantaged in some fields, disadvantaged in others. You can't, in my experienced opinion, construct a superfecta ticket before seeing the field.

Good name, by the way!