Overlays

[Magister Ludi]

Overlays



[Mssrs. Rise and Run have pointed out that I mistakenly had the wrong link in my previous post. This one has the correct one.]

Overlay – A situation in which offered odds are greater than expected odds. Please see the following race which recently ran:

https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/AQU031013USA9.pdf

Assume that the final odds were available to you at post time but that you didn’t know what the outcome of the race was going to be. Which horse(s) do you think were overlays? (Please see poll above). I voted for #2 and #6.

[Stillriledup]

9th race on March 10th at A?

The winner and the 5th place finisher were the biggest overlays in the race imo.

[letswastemoney]

I don't think a relationship can be made between program numbers and overlays. If a gun was put to my head though....the outside post position at Santa Anita downhill turf races. #11 paid $16 in Race 2 today. So it depends on the track too.

[Overlay]

Overlays



[Mssrs. Rise and Run have pointed out that I mistakenly had the wrong link in my previous post. This one has the correct one.]

Overlay – A situation in which offered odds are greater than expected odds. Please see the following race which recently ran:

https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/AQU031013USA9.pdf

Assume that the final odds were available to you at post time but that you didn’t know what the outcome of the race was going to be. Which horse(s) do you think were overlays? (Please see poll above). I voted for #2 and #6.
What am I missing? Is it being assumed that we have the past performances for the race available to us? Was there a link to them that I missed? Without the past performances, what is the basis for judging which horses in the race went off as overlays? Are we being asked from the way the race was actually run to make an after-the-fact judgment about which horses in it were overrated or underrated by the public? It's too late to get a bet down after the race is over.

[mrhorseplayer]

adn that was wiht cnak on the grass

[Robert Goren]

The :1: :7: :8: had no chance in my opinion. I did like the :2: ( Vet scratch 2-23) much either. I had it down to the :3: and the :6: and I bet the :6:. With 3 dead horses, the odds were at least decent on the rest. With 4 horses with a good chance to win, it would have been tough to work out a dutch. It tough to bet a horse that hasn't won in at least 2 years with a 7% trainer and 1% jockey even though it should have beat the :6: in it last race after watching a replay and the :6: running a tell sign clunker since. I know I should toss cheap horses that win first off a lay off, but I keep betting them. In hind sight the :3: :4: :10: were the very likely winners and the overlays. The :10: broke funny and ran for a while then stopped. A decision will have to made when it runs next time.

[MightBeSosa]

Imo none of them. The public was close to real odds on all of them, and after the confiscatory takeout, bupkis left for you.

[stuball]

Pgm numbers are not pp numbers....when you have a 1 and 1a they can be way outside depending on the draw....I have seen races where they also have 2 and 2b etc....I see no value in analyzing pgm numbers....can someone clue me in
on this or is this a trick question..by the way I did not vote....

Stuball :lol:

[HUSKER55]

mrhorseplayer,...would you be interested in some cheese to go with that wine....

[lamboguy]

i bet a horse yesterday, the 8th @Oaklawn. i wasn't watching racing there all day, but i was waiting for that horse to come back and run. i looked at the field, the horse had a morning line of 5/2. i thought the horse would be even money. 2 horses scratch out of the race and he wins and pays $15. i went back and looked at the past performances which i hardly ever do and still don't understand why the horse paid that much. my friend called me and told me the outside was not the place to be yesterday in Hot Springs, the horse i bet was the #10. i have no idea what you call that, an overlay or a dumb mistake on my part. bottom line, its better to be lucky than good.

[MightBeSosa]

Better to be lucky AND good, just lucky alone for 'place'. Good to show.

[overthehill]

with the only information available to me the chart and my recollection of winter meet at aqueduct in general my vote for the biggest overlay would be the #2 at 36-1 breaking from the rail in a short sprint coming off a 4th place finish. Having said that I confess that i leery of betting such horses with real money unless i am confident that the odds on the horse of winning should be less than 10-1. this pretty blind as i dont now the level the horse had been running at compared with others in the field.

[overthehill]

wow. you were stealing money there! I will have to start following oaklawn! i checked back on your fillys performances. well bet in every single sprint race. odds on chalk in a stake sprint. then stretched out to a mile stake in last won by an Asmussen filly that paid 20-1!

[Red Knave]

AQU09 (Main.AQU09) Bet Int=8
sort:Pct+$Net Time: 16:23:52 Min: 0:28:07
Prime Cont=4 FH Cont=50% +1
Prg Horse Con Odds Prob $Net Opt% Gr |
6 CHRISTOPHER'S JOY C 2.75 46.3 $3.47 26.73% A+ |
7 WANSTEAD C 6.30 15.3 $2.23 1.83% A |
4 DAN'S GOLD C 4.40 13.7 $1.48 -5.91% C |
3 FLO'S GREATNESS C 8.70 13.6 $2.63 3.62% A+ |
10 LITTLE DALE f 4.10 7.6 $0.78 -14.88% F |
2 DABA DABA 36.50 2.5 $1.84 -0.22% B+ |
1 COPY MY SWAGGER 2.85 0.8 $0.06 -34.04% F |
8 TOP YANK 40.50 0.3 $0.27 -2.14% F |

6, 3, 4 in order.

[Red Knave]

6, 3, 4 in order.
Oops, make that 6, 3, 7.

[Stillriledup]

Imo none of them. The public was close to real odds on all of them, and after the confiscatory takeout, bupkis left for you.

The winner almost paid 20 dollars and Christopher's Joy had raced against the winner recently and while beating him, the winner was blocked and shut off in the stretch and would have beaten C's Joy had he had a clear run. Bettors forgot that trip note and made Cs Joy a much shorter price. C's Joy was claimed out of that win and went on to make another start for new connections in a different class, but he wasnt visually improved in any way and since the original trainer was Asmussen, it wasnt likely the horse would be on the improve.