Thanks Pandy

[melman]

I'm a big fan of Balmoral and on Pandy's last "horses to watch" listing at drfharness he had four listed. Three of them won on Sat night.

LCB Sandy $23.00
Thunder Steeler $8.20
Zall Good $12.60

Needless to say I had a very good night. Thanks again for your hard work Pandy. :ThmbUp:

[imofe]

Hey Mel,

I bet you were shocked that LCB Sandy paid $23.00 after winning for fun at 8/5 in her last start. Great price.

[pandy]

Thanks, glad you had them. Thunder Steeler was a surprisingly good price too. The horse was a monster the week before. The nice thing about Balmoral, the best horses actually win there.

[melman]

imofe--You would have won that bet. :) I had "Sandy" at between 3-1 or 5-1 on my line. A shocker.

Also imofe another VERY good tool that Pandy provides FREE is his listing of his personal odds line along with the selections at the BigM. Example Pandy had the horse Sweet Hedge as 7/2 on his fair odds line and his 2nd choice. I also had Sweed Hedge as somewhere between 3-1 and 6-1 tops. Horse was a winner at $25.80. Nice overlay.

[pandy]

Thanks for the compliment. As I said in a recent column, I wish that more handicappers and publications provided a fair odds line with their selections. I'm surprised when I see handicappers picks published as "graded entries" when they simply use the morning line. The NY Post does this for Aqueduct, Meadowlands, Yonkers, etc., and other publications as well as racing publications also use the morning line.

That is pretty weak. I mean, if you are publishing "graded" picks then you have to do the line yourself, as I do. The morning line at most tracks is simply not good enough to use as a betting line.

[precisionk]

I thought about putting odds on my picks, but haven't decided which way or the other.

Pandy, are your odds based on what you feel the horse will go off at or your opinion on the horses value as the minimum before you bet?

[pandy]

I thought about putting odds on my picks, but haven't decided which way or the other.

Pandy, are your odds based on what you feel the horse will go off at or your opinion on the horses value as the minimum before you bet?

I base it on what I think the horse's actual chances are to win based on a 100% line. So yes, sort of my opinion on the minimum I would need to bet. That being said, I do bet some of the horses at lower odds than my line because I take into account the possibility that the betting could be indicating that a horse is live. The money at the Meadowlands is pretty smart sometimes. This isn't the case at all tracks. But sometimes it pays to be flexible. If I make a horse 4-1 but pick it on top and it goes off at 5-2 I have take into account the possibility that I underestimated the horse a bit. It's not easy to make an accurate line, it's just an educated guess. But, I do think that the line is a big help.

Another thing the line does is pinpoint races that are easier to hit. For instance, let's look at two examples. Say in one race my line is 8-5, 7-2, 9-2, 8-1.

In another race my line is 8-5, 2-1, 5-2, 7-2. Well, obviously in my opinion this race is much more competitive than the other. So, say that in both races my top pick goes off at 8-5. Well, in the first instance, it's a great bet because not only am I getting my odds but my horse has a much bigger advantage (better chance to win). In the other race, even if I'm getting my 8-5 fair odds it probably isn't that good a bet because my other contenders all have a pretty good chance of winning.

[mrroyboy]

Pandy
Your odds line has always been confusing to me. Sometimes your 3rd choice is 2-1 and your first choice is 4-1 or something. I'm glad you explained it somewhat.
Quick question Pandy. in your new longshot book what is the difference between longshot angles and longshot indicators? I know that's t-breds but I don't want to start a new thread. Thanks Pandy

[pandy]

Longshot angles are a bit stronger than indicators. The idea was that if you find a horse that has a longshot angle it is a stronger play if it also has one or two longshot indicators. But each one has merit on its own.

As for my line, that's an interesting thing about it. Sometimes I may pick a horse and make it 8-1, make my second choice 4-1 and my third choice 2-1. I know this seems confusing because some people think that a handicapper always has to pick the horse he thinks will win the race, or has the best chance of winning the race. But in a case like that I think that two horses, the 8-1 and the 4-1, are both potential upset winners, and better value than the favorite.

[imofe]

imofe--You would have won that bet. :) I had "Sandy" at between 3-1 or 5-1 on my line. A shocker.

Also imofe another VERY good tool that Pandy provides FREE is his listing of his personal odds line along with the selections at the BigM. Example Pandy had the horse Sweet Hedge as 7/2 on his fair odds line and his 2nd choice. I also had Sweed Hedge as somewhere between 3-1 and 6-1 tops. Horse was a winner at $25.80. Nice overlay.

I generally do not make a line but I determine the contenders and then rank them. Then I decide which, if any , offers any value. Kind of a "in my mind line" I guess. In this race the only horse I had ranked higher was Dee Dee Sage.

[pandy]

That's a good way to do it. I doubt that very many handicappers actually make a line. I would love to see more public handicappers make lines, though.

[imofe]

That's a good way to do it. I doubt that very many handicappers actually make a line. I would love to see more public handicappers make lines, though.

Pandy,

To be honest I think the reason they do not is because

1) It is a lot more work
2) When their 4th choice wins at 10-1 they can claim some type of overlay with their picks even though that might be close to what the odds line actually was.

The way you do it puts you more out on a limb than just listing the 1st four choices.