Betting off the claim

[Ray2000]

tonypp's thread in T-bred and Jeff P's analysis prompted me to look at Standardbred Claims

Harness Claims from Nov 2011 to Nov 2012 shows a strange plateau between odds of 2/1 and 6/1
The chart is showing capital balance betting 'next start off the claim' no matter what the odds are that day, arranged by odds on day of claim. 3219 starters.

The 200 largest odds day of claim (18/1 or higher) in their next start shows a +12% ROI

Guess money talks.... ;)

[precisionk]

tonypp's thread in T-bred and Jeff P's analysis prompted me to look at Standardbred Claims

Harness Claims from Nov 2011 to Nov 2012 shows a strange plateau between odds of 2/1 and 6/1
The chart is showing capital balance betting 'next start off the claim' no matter what the odds are that day, arranged by odds on day of claim. 3219 starters.

The 200 largest odds day of claim (18/1 or higher) in their next start shows a +12% ROI

Guess money talks.... ;)

I think for me off the claim can provide good value if you know who is claiming them. On my things to look for when handicapping, trainer is somewhere on the mid to low priority for me. I am firm believer a driver changer provides a much larger benefit then the trainer. However, I don't discount big barn/trainer changes off the claim. For me, I feel the trainer needs a solid 7 days, preferably 14 days before the next start before I move that up as a big deal on my list. I've seen plenty of claimers race 3 days after and I feel its just not enough time especially if the trainer going from say 5% winners to 20% to really do something with the horse.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I used to use something like that with Kesmodel at the Meadowlands. It brought in some boxcars back then.

[imofe]

tonypp's thread in T-bred and Jeff P's analysis prompted me to look at Standardbred Claims

Harness Claims from Nov 2011 to Nov 2012 shows a strange plateau between odds of 2/1 and 6/1
The chart is showing capital balance betting 'next start off the claim' no matter what the odds are that day, arranged by odds on day of claim. 3219 starters.

The 200 largest odds day of claim (18/1 or higher) in their next start shows a +12% ROI

Guess money talks.... ;)

Ray,

I wonder if horses that won or maybe ran second in the start they were claimed do better or worse than horses that ran poorly?

[Ray2000]

Ray,

I wonder if horses that won or maybe ran second in the start they were claimed do better or worse than horses that ran poorly?



I don't see any difference in (ROI) performance based on Finish on Claim Date. There might be a inflection point when sorted on Claiming price or Days Off but then, I haven't removed any outliers. For instance, "Home Towne Jeff" was claimed on 3/29/12 at Pocono (off at 3/1) for 12G by an unknown trainer Lafferty, started 32 days later..

May 1 2012 PCD R9 Home Towne Jeff....$125.20 $44.40 $17.40

Is this a crazy game or what?

[Ray2000]

A PACE member wanted the price data on these claimers so I'll attach the file here.

[melman]

What effect does post draw in first after a claim have? Worst case example. You spend $30,000 on a claim at Yonkers and draw the 8 post. Even worse you get the 8 post again the next time. Has to hurt at all tracks not named Meadowlands or Balmoral.

[pandy]

tonypp's thread in T-bred and Jeff P's analysis prompted me to look at Standardbred Claims

Harness Claims from Nov 2011 to Nov 2012 shows a strange plateau between odds of 2/1 and 6/1
The chart is showing capital balance betting 'next start off the claim' no matter what the odds are that day, arranged by odds on day of claim. 3219 starters.

The 200 largest odds day of claim (18/1 or higher) in their next start shows a +12% ROI

Guess money talks.... ;)

So wouldn't this indicate that horses with weak form coming into the claimed race are the best to bet back? Correct? It sort of makes sense.

[Ray2000]

mel

I don't see any unusual effect on post draw after claim just the normal ROI bias where posts 1,2 and 5 are best.
There's a lot of ways to filter the numbers,.... better trainer, class moves etc, but then the number of starts gets to small to be meaningful.


pandy

Yes, that's what I take from it. Specially if the trainer puts up part of the money

Show Me the Wire's post in tonypp's thread does make sense.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=101645&page=3&pp=15