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Muddy
03-13-2013, 06:46 PM
R1 :7: Little Miss Lexi Yuck!

johnhannibalsmith
03-13-2013, 06:54 PM
$38.00 winner off of a 4-1 M/L as a FTS by a sire with 25% debut winners and the dam has produced 3 winners from 4 starters... wow... Can't remember the last time I even looked at the form at a race from Delta that wasn't on Jackpot day and missed the race until they were galloping out, but that's a heck of a payday or a terrible M/L... :D

johnhannibalsmith
03-13-2013, 07:12 PM
They have great music on the Delta feed... :lol: ... I need to watch this more often... Since I can't figure out my track these days, I'm game to check out the rest of the universe... not sure how a guy plays Delta, but I'm gonna take a swing at the second for shins and grits...

:2: is ultra obvious and getting bet like he's already won - thought he would be easy to stand against when I started looking at PPs, but once I realized the four was scratched... it's hard to get too far away from this one in the context.

:3: intrigues me a bit as I search for some sort of discernible pace scenario in this race... just trying to find something that may be able to get position by default and have enough run to fend off the rest of the stragglers... some of his races suggest he may have a hint more speed than he shows, but the fact that he won from far back makes me think that the connections probably won't try it...

:8: is the only other one I can see...

johnhannibalsmith
03-13-2013, 07:18 PM
:2: 1-5
:3: 25-1
:8: 8-1

That's it, I'm retiring from Delta at 100%...

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

johnhannibalsmith
03-13-2013, 07:41 PM
...
That's it, I'm retiring from Delta at 100%...

...

Whoa back! Not so fast, these guys on-air are praying at the altar of this House fella that has the two in here. Meanwhile, all the early money is on the four.

You gotta like both of them - the two has run creditable races against statebreds at the route distances, generally for higher tags - though I'm not sure just how much different a $12.5k MCL breed race is generally from a $10k breed race.

The four on the other hand exits an open race for $20k and now drops not only in price, but also in with breeds. Couple that with a pair of decent races to begin his career - debuting at 7/8 is usually tough, and chased a fast pace going a mile last time and just levelled off late. I can see why he's taking money.

But...

I'm leaning in the direction of the :5: here if the tote is really reflective of what is going to happen to the final odds. He's been loitering around 5-1 throughout and drops in from open $10k company to face breeds for the first time since a try against maiden allowance types.

Appears to have had a rough trip two back at six and a half when packed extremely wide according to the charts, and though I wish I had time to actually watch his most recent when stretching to a mile to see just how he ran, the chart seems to show a horse that appreciated the distance (and actually the line reflects one of those old school angles of good position, lost position, then re-rallied for an improved position at the finish).

Though I tend to gravitate towards lightly races maidens in spots like this, this guy looks to be getting a little better each time. He may be more of a "key" horse to use with the other two as opposed to an "all in" win bet, but currently 7-2, and that's not so bad in here.

$20 win 5
$10 exbox 5 with 2,4
$5 tri 5 with 2,4
$1 super 5 w 2,4 w 2,4 w ALL

No idea how you actually wager into Delta pools, so I'm hitting them all... :D

Good night to Delta!

johnhannibalsmith
03-13-2013, 07:51 PM
Doh! Ohsoclose... missed by a head or so from never betting another track in my entire life except Delta... :D

:4: 9-5
:5: 7-2
:2: 6-5
:1: 15-1

Looks like the $10 exacta was worth $103 - not bad - the rest was pretty lousy. I guess I'm still above 50% but below 100% since at least it was profitable even if my top pick got bingo'd.

I may have to start watching this place just for a change of scenery and to delete my brain's inherent biases lately.

Robert Fischer
03-13-2013, 08:25 PM
Race 5

Overlay = :5: De Shivers.

:3::5::7::8: $5 ex bx

Robert Fischer
03-13-2013, 08:28 PM
also $10 win on :5:

$ exacta :3::7::8: w/ :5:

and $ tris :3::7::8: w.:5: w.:3::7::8:
and :3::7::8:, :3::7::8:, :5:

johnhannibalsmith
03-13-2013, 08:35 PM
Sat down just in time to read your pick and then watch the race... great call on the winner... :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Robert Fischer
03-13-2013, 08:37 PM
should have had confidence in him as a stand alone.
At least i had a decent horse.

Maximillion
03-14-2013, 09:26 PM
I may have to start watching this place just for a change of scenery and to delete my brain's inherent biases lately.


Imo its a great track to bet......my best last year and despite an 0-for 22 start(ouch) my best this year.
To me its the full fields......it really is as simple as that imo.I look at my records and its crystal clear my roi is much higher in large fields.